In Japan, crude oil use depends almost exclusively on imports, mainly from the Middle East. Therefore, guaranteeing crude oil imports is an important issue for the Japanese energy policy. To analyze the impact of a de...In Japan, crude oil use depends almost exclusively on imports, mainly from the Middle East. Therefore, guaranteeing crude oil imports is an important issue for the Japanese energy policy. To analyze the impact of a decrease in crude oil imports, two features of crude oil as an energy good should be taken into consideration, namely being a factor of production in the energy sector and feedstock in petroleum and coal products. This study uses the GTAP and GTAP-E models to evaluate the impact of the decrease in crude oil imports in Japan, applying the same methodology and exogenous values, and analyzes the difference of the simulation results between the two models. In Japan, crude oil is used in two sectors： as feedstock in petroleum and coal products, and as a factor of production in the electricity sector. When energy goods are used as feedstock, the GTAP model, in which energy goods are treated as intermediate inputs with fixed coefficients, is suitable for analysis. The GTAP-E model, which incorporates an energy substitution structure into the GTAP model, is, on the other hand, suitable for analyzing energy goods when they are used as a factor of production. Furthermore, this study uses both a static analysis and an analysis incorporating capital accumulation effects to evaluate short-term, as well as medium to long-term impacts. The simulation results clearly indicate that, in the GTAP-E model, when crude oil imports from the Middle East decrease, Japan attempts to increase its crude oil imports from other regions, but by less than in the case of the GTAP model. The results of this study show that, for energy goods used mainly as feedstock, such as crude oil, analysis with fixed coefficients presents more realistic simulation results than those using the energy substitution structure.展开更多
文摘In Japan, crude oil use depends almost exclusively on imports, mainly from the Middle East. Therefore, guaranteeing crude oil imports is an important issue for the Japanese energy policy. To analyze the impact of a decrease in crude oil imports, two features of crude oil as an energy good should be taken into consideration, namely being a factor of production in the energy sector and feedstock in petroleum and coal products. This study uses the GTAP and GTAP-E models to evaluate the impact of the decrease in crude oil imports in Japan, applying the same methodology and exogenous values, and analyzes the difference of the simulation results between the two models. In Japan, crude oil is used in two sectors： as feedstock in petroleum and coal products, and as a factor of production in the electricity sector. When energy goods are used as feedstock, the GTAP model, in which energy goods are treated as intermediate inputs with fixed coefficients, is suitable for analysis. The GTAP-E model, which incorporates an energy substitution structure into the GTAP model, is, on the other hand, suitable for analyzing energy goods when they are used as a factor of production. Furthermore, this study uses both a static analysis and an analysis incorporating capital accumulation effects to evaluate short-term, as well as medium to long-term impacts. The simulation results clearly indicate that, in the GTAP-E model, when crude oil imports from the Middle East decrease, Japan attempts to increase its crude oil imports from other regions, but by less than in the case of the GTAP model. The results of this study show that, for energy goods used mainly as feedstock, such as crude oil, analysis with fixed coefficients presents more realistic simulation results than those using the energy substitution structure.
