Capital budgeting is concerned with maximizing the total net profit subject to budget constraints by selecting an appropriate combination of projects. This paper presents chance maximizing models for capital budgeting...Capital budgeting is concerned with maximizing the total net profit subject to budget constraints by selecting an appropriate combination of projects. This paper presents chance maximizing models for capital budgeting with fuzzy input data and multiple conflicting objectives. When the decision maker sets a prospective profit level and wants to maximize the chances of the total profit achieving the prospective profit level, a fuzzy dependent-chance programming model, a fuzzy multi-objective dependent-chance programming model, and a fuzzy goal dependent-chance programming model are used to formulate the fuzzy capital budgeting problem. A fuzzy simulation based genetic algorithm is used to solve these models. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the simulation-based genetic algorithm and the potential applications of these models.展开更多
For oil company decision-makers,the principal concern is how to allocate their limited resources into the most valuable opportunities.Recently a new management philosophy,＂Beyond NPV＂,has received more and more inte...For oil company decision-makers,the principal concern is how to allocate their limited resources into the most valuable opportunities.Recently a new management philosophy,＂Beyond NPV＂,has received more and more international attention.Economists and senior executives are seeking effective alternative analysis approaches for traditional technical and economic evaluation methods.The improved portfolio optimization model presented in this article represents an applicable technique beyond NPV for doing capital budgeting.In this proposed model,not only can oil company executives achieve trade-offs between returns and risks to their risk tolerance,but they can also employ an ＂operational premium＂ to distinguish their ability to improve the performance of the underlying projects.A simulation study based on 19 overseas upstream assets owned by a large oil company in China is conducted to compare optimized utility with non-optimized utility.The simulation results show that the petroleum optimization model including ＂operational premium＂ is more in line with the rational investors＇ demand.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 70601034)
文摘Capital budgeting is concerned with maximizing the total net profit subject to budget constraints by selecting an appropriate combination of projects. This paper presents chance maximizing models for capital budgeting with fuzzy input data and multiple conflicting objectives. When the decision maker sets a prospective profit level and wants to maximize the chances of the total profit achieving the prospective profit level, a fuzzy dependent-chance programming model, a fuzzy multi-objective dependent-chance programming model, and a fuzzy goal dependent-chance programming model are used to formulate the fuzzy capital budgeting problem. A fuzzy simulation based genetic algorithm is used to solve these models. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the simulation-based genetic algorithm and the potential applications of these models.
基金financial support from National Science and Technology Major Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China"Research on Investment estimation tools and economic appraisal system integration and development"(2011ZX05030-006-04)
文摘For oil company decision-makers,the principal concern is how to allocate their limited resources into the most valuable opportunities.Recently a new management philosophy,＂Beyond NPV＂,has received more and more international attention.Economists and senior executives are seeking effective alternative analysis approaches for traditional technical and economic evaluation methods.The improved portfolio optimization model presented in this article represents an applicable technique beyond NPV for doing capital budgeting.In this proposed model,not only can oil company executives achieve trade-offs between returns and risks to their risk tolerance,but they can also employ an ＂operational premium＂ to distinguish their ability to improve the performance of the underlying projects.A simulation study based on 19 overseas upstream assets owned by a large oil company in China is conducted to compare optimized utility with non-optimized utility.The simulation results show that the petroleum optimization model including ＂operational premium＂ is more in line with the rational investors＇ demand.
