Optimal reduction and equilibrium carbon allowance price for the thermal power industry under China’s peak carbon emissions target

As the largest source of carbon emissions in China,the thermal power industry is the only emission-controlled industry in the first national carbon market compliance cycle.Its conversion to clean-energy generation technologies is also an important means of reducing CO_(2)emissions and achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutral commitments.This study used fractional Brownian motion to describe the energy-switching cost and constructed a stochastic optimization model on carbon allowance(CA)trading volume and emission-reduction strategy during compliance period with the Hurst exponent and volatility coefficient in the model estimated.We defined the optimal compliance cost of thermal power enterprises as the form of the unique solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation by combining the dynamic optimization principle and the fractional It?’s formula.In this manner,we obtained the models for optimal emission reduction and equilibrium CA price.Our numerical analysis revealed that,within a compliance period of 2021–2030,the optimal reductions and desired equilibrium prices of CAs changed concurrently,with an increasing trend annually in different peak-year scenarios.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis revealed that the energy price indirectly affected the equilibrium CA price by influencing the Hurst exponent,the depreciation rate positively impacted the CA price,and increasing the initial CA reduced the optimal reduction and the CA price.Our findings can be used to develop optimal emission-reduction strategies for thermal power enterprises and carbon pricing in the carbon market.

Collaborative robust dispatch of electricity and carbon under carbon allowance trading market

The launch of the carbon-allowance trading market has changed the cost structure of the power industry.There is an asynchronous coupling mechanism between the carbon-allowance-trading market and the day-ahead power-system dispatch.In this study,a data-driven model of the uncertainty in the annual carbon price was created.Subsequently,a collaborative,robust dispatch model was constructed considering the annual uncertainty of the carbon price and the daily uncertainty of renewable-energy generation.The model is solved using the column-and-constraint generation algorithm.An operation and cost model of a carbon-capture power plant(CCPP)that couples the carbon market and the economic operation of the power system is also established.The critical,profitable conditions for the economic operation of the CCPP were derived.Case studies demonstrated that the proposed low-carbon,robust dispatch model reduced carbon emissions by 2.67%compared with the traditional,economic,dispatch method.The total fuel cost of generation decreases with decreasing,conservative,carbon-price-uncertainty levels,while total carbon emissions continue to increase.When the carbon-quota coefficient decreases,the system dispatch tends to increase low-carbon unit output.This study can provide important guidance for carbon-market design and the low-carbon-dispatch selection strategies.

Study on the investment value and investment opportunity of renewable energies under the carbon trading system

China has promised to start the national carbon trading system in 2017.In the carbon trading system,the renewable energy projects may obtain additional benefits through the Certified Carbon Emission Reduction(CCER) trade.As the carbon price fluctuates along with the market conditions,such fluctuation enables the renewable power projects to acquire the rights of an option,i.e.it may contain an even higher value due to the uncertainties in the future.While making an investment decision,the renewable power companies may choose to make the investment immediately,or postpone the investment and accumulate more information to increase the return of investment;and for immediate investments,the return must be sufficient to exceed the potential value of a waiting option.To study the investment in renewable power projects subject to the fluctuation of carbon price,this paper adopts the trinomial tree model of real options to estimate the net present value(NPV) and real option value(ROV) of three types of renewable power projects;according to the decision-making rules of real options to defer,all the three types of projects will exercise the option to postpone the investment decision.This thesis also calculates the benchmark prices of the three types of renewable projects at different times,in the two situations of having no government subsidy and having the government subsidy,so as to determine the investment opportunity of a project.The benchmark price decreases gradually along with the increase of government subsidy,indicating that the government subsidy will stimulate the investment in renewable projects.The benchmark price also increases gradually along with the lapse of time,indicating that the uncertainty will increase together with the time span and thus requires an even higher carbon price to determine the investment opportunity.This thesis also analyzes the sensitivity of factors affecting the investment in renewable projects and draws the conclusion that the fluctuation of carbon price is positively related with the benchmark price of renewable power projects,which indicates that the fluctuation of carbon price increases the option value of an investment but postpones the time of investment.As the China's carbon trading system improves gradually,the carbon price will reach a stable status,thus stimulate the power companies to invest in the renewable projects.

Low Carbon Beijing:Research on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Trading Price

The international community has taken extensive actions to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development with the intensification of global warming and climate change.China has also carried out a long-term layout,setting the goal of achieving a carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.In 2021,with the official launch of a unified national carbon emissions trading market,China’s nationwide carbon emissions trading kicked off.Carbon emission trading is an important policy tool for China’s carbon peak and carbon-neutral action and an essential part of the country’s promotion of a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society.This study uses a VAR(Vector Autoregressive)model to analyze the influencing factors of the Beijing carbon emissions trading price from January 2014 to December 2019.The study found that coal prices have the most significant impact on Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.Oil prices,industrial development indexes,and AQI(Air Quality Index)impacted Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.In contrast,natural gas prices and economic indexes have the most negligible impact.These findings will help decision-makers determine a reasonable price for carbon emissions trading and contribute to the market’s healthy development.

Effect of Carbon Price Floor on Levelised Cost of Gas-Fired Generation Technology in the UK

The UK government implements carbon price floor to provide long-term incentive to invest in low-carbon technology, thus, fossil-fuel power plants have to face increasing carbon price. This report addresses the effect of carbon price floor on levelised cost of gas-fired generation technology through the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) ap-proach with the estimation of carbon price floor. Finally, the comparison of levelised cost of electricity for all generation technology in the UK will be shown and discussed.

Daily rolling estimation of carbon emission cost of coal-fired units considering long-cycle interactive operation simulation of carbon-electricity market

The high overlap of participants in the carbon emissions trading and electricity markets couples the operations of the two markets.The carbon emission cost(CEC)of coal-fired units becomes part of the power generation cost through market coupling.The accuracy of CEC calculation affects the clearing capacity of coal-fired units in the electric power market.Study of carbon–electricity market interaction and CEC calculations is still in its initial stages.This study analyzes the impact of carbon emissions trading and compliance on the operation of the electric power market and defines the cost transmission mode between the carbon emissions trading and electric power markets.A long-period interactive operation simulation mechanism for the carbon–electricity market is established,and operation and trading models of the carbon emissions trading market and electric power market are established.A daily rolling estimation method for the CEC of coal-fired units is proposed,along with the CEC per unit electric quantity of the coal-fired units.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through an example simulation,and the factors influencing the CEC are analyzed.

中国碳市场建设成效与展望(2024)

碳交易通过显性碳定价原则,将排放的负外部效应内部成本化,为处理经济发展与减排关系提供了一种解决方案。截至2023年,全球共28个碳交易体系投入运行,覆盖的温室气体排放量超过全球排放总量的17%,实施区域从发达国家逐步拓展至发展中国家,从欧洲、北美等地逐步拓展至拉美、东亚等地,更多的区域选择将碳市场减排目标与宏观减排目标绑定,并通过不断优化制度提高市场有效性,碳市场影响力逐步提高。2023年中国全国碳市场核算、核查、配额分配、数据管理、自愿减排等制度方法取得重要突破,全年配额成交2.12亿吨,是2022年的4.2倍,成交均价68.15元/吨,较2022年上涨23.24%,较第一个履约周期上涨59.04%。经过两个履约周期的建设,全国碳市场已形成要素完整的全流程制度框架,责任主体分工明确,支撑平台安全运转,碳排放数据质量大幅提高,碳价格发现机制初步形成,碳减排激励约束效果初显,推动碳市场成为中国实现“双碳”战略目标的重要政策工具。下一步全国碳市场将扩大行业覆盖范围,梯次纳入水泥、民航、电解铝、钢铁等行业;优化配额分配方法,适时引入有偿分配机制;调整履约机制,明确结余配额结转规定;出台多项中国核证自愿减排方法学,完善强制减排与自愿减排市场的衔接;加快推进与国际碳市场的连接,促进技术、方法、标准、数据互认互通,协助积极应对欧盟碳边境调节机制。

考虑需求响应及不确定性的综合能源优化调度

如何在区域综合能源系统中建立有效的需求侧模型,对于需求响应政策的实施至关重要。为提高用户参与需求响应积极性,引入实时定价机制,同时考虑系统的经济低碳性和电气热用户的用能满意度,构建兼顾系统和用户利益的综合需求响应主从博弈模型。针对用户参与需求响应的不确定性,引入贝叶斯方法更新负荷曲线。算例分析表明,所提博弈模型及贝叶斯方法能够有效平衡系统和用户之间的利益,提高了综合需求响应的可靠性。

考虑双层奖惩型碳交易机制的源网荷分布协同低碳经济调度

在“双碳”目标下,设计合理的碳交易机制使源网荷共同参与碳市场,对节能减排具有重要意义。在此背景下,提出了考虑双层奖惩型碳交易机制的源网荷分布协同低碳经济调度策略。首先,建立双层奖惩型碳交易机制下综合能源供应商-园区协同的低碳调度模型,综合能源供应商直接参与外部奖惩型阶梯碳交易市场,园区通过向综合能源供应商支付碳费用或获取碳收益间接参与碳市场,从而激发各主体积极参与节能减排。其次,建立奖惩型阶梯碳价格模型,并提出奖惩型阶梯碳价格机制下综合能源供应商-多园区的碳成本/收益分摊方法,保证了碳成本/收益分摊的有效性与合理性。再次,分别构建综合能源供应商与多园区低碳调度模型,并基于纳什协商刻画园区间的合作博弈,通过各园区间功率互济降低碳排放并提高社会效益。然后,提出了基于自适应调节机制的嵌套交替方向乘子法的双层分布式求解方法。最后,以IEEE 14节点配电网与12线路热管网组成的源网荷综合能源系统为例,验证了所提模型和方法的有效性。

中国油气行业甲烷排放估算与减排分析

甲烷是仅次于二氧化碳的第二大温室气体,据统计全球甲烷排放中石油天然气行业排放占比高达三分之一,加强甲烷排放管控对推动“双碳”目标的实现具有重要的意义。为此,结合油气消费量预期、行业控排预期等,估算了2021—2060年中国油气行业甲烷排放量;并进一步分析了减排目标下技术减排潜力和减排成本,最后结合各类排放源占比及现有减排技术的成本效益,测算了2030年与2060年2个时间节点油气行业甲烷减排的边际成本。研究结果表明:①2021—2060年期间,油气行业甲烷排放量略有下降,天然气系统甲烷排放量增速变缓,其中运输和输配环节有较大减排潜力;②油气行业90%的甲烷排放量集中在30%的排放源中,有10%~20%的甲烷无法彻底通过技术减排;③在2030年、2060年实施的减排技术中,具有收益的技术比例分别达22.0%和44.4%;④2030、2060年的甲烷平均单位减排成本分别为22.33元/m^(3)和14.57元/m^(3)。结论认为,中国油气行业在中长期需要加快推进甲烷排放检测、报告、核查体系的建设,推动排放数据的精细化,并通过绿色金融、中国碳减排核证方法学开发等多种方式,持续提升行业甲烷减排积极性。

计及复合碳泄漏效应的电力系统双层规划

“双碳”目标下,不对称碳监管政策在电力行业低碳转型路径中引发的强、弱复合碳泄漏效应需要引起关注。针对单边碳减排政策在电力系统中的影响,结合边际电价理论构建了考虑输电网级能源网架扩展与配电网级能源枢纽负荷行为的电力系统双层规划模型。首先,在上层能源网架规划中分析线路扩展带来的弱碳泄漏效应,通过拉格朗日乘子求解电网边际电价,在此基础上计及强碳泄漏效应影响下的负荷转移行为,建立下层能源枢纽经济规划模型;其次,分析碳泄漏的成因并提出缓和手段,建立对应模型;然后,提出电力系统双层低碳规划的求解流程,并设计提升双层规划收敛性的二分启发式方法;最后,在改进的IEEE 12节点系统与改进的IEEE 236节点系统中进行仿真,分析碳价格与碳泄漏缓和手段对碳泄漏效应的影响,算例结果验证了碳泄漏的形成渠道与影响。分析免费碳配额或碳排放关税对碳泄漏效应的缓和作用与风险,同时,研究双层规划模型收敛性,可为电力系统低碳转型路径中开展合理碳监管提供参考。

新能源电力系统能量-灵活爬坡市场定价研究

新能源的零边际成本和间歇性出力为传统节点边际电价模型带来了新的挑战。“双随机”,特别是新能源供给的随机性会导致现货市场价格波动大,无法为市场参与者带来正确的价格信号。针对高比例新能源系统,提出了一种基于连续节点边际电价(continuous locational marginal pricing, CLMP)的出清机制的市场模型。首先计及了电力系统、储能系统和数据中心的运行约束,利用CLMP的定价机理构建了高比例新能源系统能量定价模型。然后考虑了发电机组与储能系统、数据中心提供运行灵活性爬坡服务,建立了高比例新能源电力系统能量-灵活爬坡市场协同定价模型。最后,算例测试定量分析了新能源渗透率与储能对系统电价的影响,量化了储能和数据中心的运行灵活性。

价格调控策略对城市道路交通减污降碳协同增效影响研究

在碳达峰目标导向下,城市道路交通减污降碳的协同增效策略研究已成为国家的紧迫任务。文章引入价格调控型策略,构建道路交通减污降碳的系统动力学模型。通过动态仿真,揭示中长期隐藏的负效应,发现:机动车污染收费通过三个途径(降低机动车出行吸引度、抑制机动车增长吸引度、增加公共交通的投资)来实现减污降碳目的;罚款和补贴政策分别通过降低机动车非法出行量和提升公共交通供给水平来促进道路交通减污降碳的治理;叠加效应将引发一系列副作用:加剧交通拥堵程度、抑制机动车减污和降碳的协同治理、增加健康风险及安全隐患。

低碳目标下电气化交通网最优定价策略

作为降低化石燃料消耗、缓解环境危机的有效途径,采用电动汽车(EV)替代燃油汽车(GV)越来越受到人们的重视,这促进了EV的发展和普及,使城市交通网(UTN)和配电网(PDN)的运营紧密耦合。本文从充电网运营商(CNO)自身利益最大化的角度出发,解决电动汽车充电站(EVCS)最优充电定价问题。计及UTN和PDN的相互影响,并保护各个部门的隐私信息。综合考虑GV和EV的碳排放,通过充电价格调控EV充电行为,使充电负荷在不同PDN之间转移,促进电气化交通网的最优经济-低碳运行。数值算例验证了所提出模型和方法的有效性,以及CNO优化定价对电气化交通网的影响。

Factors affecting the pilot trading market of carbon emissions in China

Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emission trading market in China is a big question. More attention is paid to how China promotes the carbon emission trading schemes in the whole country. This paper addresses concerns about the functioning of carbon emission trading schemes in seven pilot regions and takes the weekly data from November 25, 2013, to March 19, 2017. We employ a vector autoregressive model to study how coal price, oil price and stock index have affected the carbon price in China. The results indicate that carbon price is mainly affected by its own historical price; coal price and stock index have negative effects on carbon price, while oil price has a negative effect on carbon price during the first 3 weeks and then has a positive effect on carbon price. More regulatory attention and economic measures are needed to improve market efficiency, and the mechanisms of carbon emission trading schemes should be improved.

计及自适应阶梯碳势-碳价与供需双响应基于主从博弈的综合能源系统低碳经济调度

针对碳流视角下综合能源系统(integrated energy system,IES)低碳化调度潜能挖掘不充分和用能侧碳排放责任承担不足的问题,提出了计及自适应阶梯碳势-碳价与供需双响应基于主从博弈的IES低碳经济调度策略。首先,设计自适应阶梯碳势-碳价模型,并构建基于能量枢纽矩阵标准化模型的IES碳流模型,获取用户侧各能源负荷节点碳势,进而完成碳势分级下碳价区间的划分;其次,兼顾源荷两侧的灵活调整及响应机制,建立用户侧参与的IES主从博弈低碳经济调度模型,上层IES运营商通过制定动态变化的负荷节点碳势-碳价,引导下层用户聚合商低碳化用能;最后,提出改进霜冰优化算法(improved rime optimization algorithm,IRIME),利用其独特阶梯式逐步搜索策略与主从博弈迭代过程相贴合的特性,并改进权重系数设计与选择策略,实现主从博弈模型的高精度、快速求解。仿真结果表明:所提自适应阶梯碳势-碳价模型提升了用户侧的碳势感知能力,与阶梯型碳排放固定碳价模型相比可进一步降低4.76%的碳排放量,结合供需双响应机制可提高1.13%的IES运营商收益和降低0.81%的用户聚合商成本;IRIME提升了模型求解的快速性,同时改善了主体间博弈结果的均衡性;所提调度策略实现了碳排放责任的流动转移与两主体间的协同低碳经济运行。

Policy Implications for Carbon Trading Market Establishment in China in the 12th Five-Year Period

Based on the survey of international emissions trading system(ETS) and quantitative analysis,policy suggestions on establishing a carbon ETS in China are presented in this study.Sectors sensitive to carbon prices,e.g.,the power generation sector and the iron and steel industry,are given priority to be covered by the ETS.Interregional carbon trading should be carried out as early as possible.The cap of the ETS should be based on China's carbon intensity reduction target with the floor carbon price for the market being set in the beginning.Suggestions on the infrastructure of ETS are also proposed,including the national wide carbon account registration system and the legislation to national measuring,reporting,verification system building.

Modified Ramsey Rule and Optimal Carbon Tax

The Ramsey rule is regarded as a convenient vehicle for estimating the social discount rate in general. Carbon pricing is treated as another theory of environmental economics. This study clarifies the theoretical relationship between the Ramsey rule and optimal carbon price, which has been overlooked in the existing research. It succeeds in deriving the optimal carbon price from the modified Ramsey rule in stationary state. Since the Ramsey rule decides the dynamics of an economy and a stationary state is its destination, by using the optimization condition of individual who are assumed to live infinitesimally short life, we can solve the optimal carbon price at stationary state.

面向含氢综合能源系统的电-碳-氢耦合交易市场研究综述

在我国“双碳”目标愿景下,电-碳-氢耦合交易市场正通过市场机制优化能源配置,加速能源转型,但含氢综合能源系统的兴盛给多能耦合交易市场的发展带来了新的挑战。介绍了含氢综合能源系统的基本结构,并在电-碳、电-氢交易市场研究的基础上分析了电-碳-氢耦合交易机制,深入探究了面向含氢综合能源系统的电-碳-氢耦合交易市场机制。分别从市场的交易标的物、交易对象、交易价格角度进行了阐述,并归纳分析了目前实现市场均衡的能源定价策略与市场出清机制。最后总结了电-碳-氢交易市场与含氢综合能源系统发展面临的挑战,并对后续的研究方向进行了展望。

计及电动汽车和碳捕集的电网调控系统低碳优化调度

为了实现电网调控系统(power grid control system,PCS)的低碳化和稳定性,本文提出考虑电动汽车充放特性与含高比例风电电网交互的PCS优化模型。首先,本文在典型PCS的基础架构下,引入碳捕集设备和风-储-电动汽车的联合发电系统。其次,考虑电动汽车充放特性与不同碳捕集价格对运行总成本的影响,基于分析运行成本、投资成本、维护成本等经济性指标,将碳捕集成本加入到优化目标函数中,以分析电动汽车V2G模式及不同碳捕集价格对电网调控系统储能优化配置的影响。最后,基于CPLEX求解器对所提模型进行求解并展开多场景对比分析,实例表明电动汽车与电网调控系统的交互模型能够有效降低11.39%总成本及16.82%碳排放总量。