In order to more accurately examine developing trends in gross cargo throughput, we have modeled the probability distribution of cargo throughput. Gross cargo throughput is determined by the time spent by cargo ships ...In order to more accurately examine developing trends in gross cargo throughput, we have modeled the probability distribution of cargo throughput. Gross cargo throughput is determined by the time spent by cargo ships in the port and the operating efficiency of handling equipment. Gross cargo throughput is the sum of all compound variables determining each aspect of cargo throughput for every cargo ship arriving at the port. Probability distribution was determined using the Wald equation. The results show that the variability of gross cargo throughput primarily depends on the different times required by different cargo ships arriving at the port. This model overcomes the shortcoming of previous models: inability to accurately determine the probability of a specific value of future gross cargo throughput. Our proposed model of cargo throughput depends on the relationship between time required by a cargo ship arriving at the port and the operational capacity of handling equipment at the port. At the same time, key factors affecting gross cargo throughput are analyzed. In order to test the efficiency of the model, the cargo volume of a port in Shandong Province was used as an example. In the case study the actual results matched our theoretical analysis.展开更多
There exists the challenge of seeming lack of empirically determined cargo throughput benchmark models for the privatized West African port terminals particularly in Nigeria,as target benchmarks which terminal operato...There exists the challenge of seeming lack of empirically determined cargo throughput benchmark models for the privatized West African port terminals particularly in Nigeria,as target benchmarks which terminal operators and port authorities must drive towards to ensure that the current improvement in port productivity experienced in the post concession era is sustained.The study was therefore aimed at developing benchmarks for the cargo throughput performances of the privatized five Nigeria ports of Apapa(Lagos),Port-Harcourt,Onne,Warri and Calabar.Such benchmarks developed for each seaport must be higher than the pre-privatization cargo throughput performances of the seaport.This became important following the improvements observed in the cargo throughput performances of the various ports from the year 2006 after the privatization of the ports and the recent recession faced in the Country which seems to have retarded the cargo throughput performances and other measures of seaport performance in the various Nigeria ports.Using Cp1,CL1,Cw1,Co1,Cc1,to represent the base year 2006 cargo throughput performances of Port-Harcourt,Lagos,Warri,Onne and Calabar seaport respectively;and n,d,to represent the number of post privatization years covered in the study and common difference in cargo throughput performances;the study used a historical design approach in which time series data on cargo throughput performances of the ports were obtained from the Nigeria ports Authority(NPA)annual statistical reports were analyzed using the converging and diverging arithmetic series mathematical modeling tool and MATLAB software,to determine benchmark models,for ensuring that the improved cargo throughput performances of the various seaports,are sustained to remain higher that the pre-privatization cargo throughput performances.The study developed the following Cargo throughput benchmark models for each seaport as findings.Lagos port=CL1+(n–1)d≥15223340;Onne port=Co1+(n-1)d≥15820381;Port-Harcourt port=Cp1+(n-1)d≥28016979;Warri=Cw1+(n-1)d≥4643128;Calabar=Cc1+(n-1)d≥7963434.It was recommended that to improve port revenue which is a dependent factor on cargo throughput and vessel call rate,cargo throughput benchmarks model developed for the individual seaports should be used to empirically model quantum s of cargo throughput needed to economically sustain and improve the level of port operations.It should equally influence port marketing drives.This will ensure that the performance of the ports does not recede into the poor performance indices experienced in the pre-privatization era.展开更多
为探究影响我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的因素,以及这些因素的影响因金融危机的爆发而发生的变化,建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量影响因素的向量自回归(Vector Auto Regression,VAR)模型,研究金融危机爆发前后交通...为探究影响我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的因素,以及这些因素的影响因金融危机的爆发而发生的变化,建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量影响因素的向量自回归(Vector Auto Regression,VAR)模型,研究金融危机爆发前后交通运输固定投资、人民币实际有效汇率、外商直接投资、世界经济状况和国内经济状况对我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的影响.由方差分解分析发现:对交通运输体系固定投资的增加在金融危机后较之金融危机之前更能提高沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量;人民币实际有效汇率和外商直接投资的波动在金融危机之前、后对沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量均不构成显著影响;金融危机后世界经济的复苏明显提高沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量;我国国内经济状况对沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的影响在金融危机后大幅削弱.展开更多
基金the Shandong "TianJun" Soft Science Foundation under Grant No.03BS.
文摘In order to more accurately examine developing trends in gross cargo throughput, we have modeled the probability distribution of cargo throughput. Gross cargo throughput is determined by the time spent by cargo ships in the port and the operating efficiency of handling equipment. Gross cargo throughput is the sum of all compound variables determining each aspect of cargo throughput for every cargo ship arriving at the port. Probability distribution was determined using the Wald equation. The results show that the variability of gross cargo throughput primarily depends on the different times required by different cargo ships arriving at the port. This model overcomes the shortcoming of previous models: inability to accurately determine the probability of a specific value of future gross cargo throughput. Our proposed model of cargo throughput depends on the relationship between time required by a cargo ship arriving at the port and the operational capacity of handling equipment at the port. At the same time, key factors affecting gross cargo throughput are analyzed. In order to test the efficiency of the model, the cargo volume of a port in Shandong Province was used as an example. In the case study the actual results matched our theoretical analysis.
文摘There exists the challenge of seeming lack of empirically determined cargo throughput benchmark models for the privatized West African port terminals particularly in Nigeria,as target benchmarks which terminal operators and port authorities must drive towards to ensure that the current improvement in port productivity experienced in the post concession era is sustained.The study was therefore aimed at developing benchmarks for the cargo throughput performances of the privatized five Nigeria ports of Apapa(Lagos),Port-Harcourt,Onne,Warri and Calabar.Such benchmarks developed for each seaport must be higher than the pre-privatization cargo throughput performances of the seaport.This became important following the improvements observed in the cargo throughput performances of the various ports from the year 2006 after the privatization of the ports and the recent recession faced in the Country which seems to have retarded the cargo throughput performances and other measures of seaport performance in the various Nigeria ports.Using Cp1,CL1,Cw1,Co1,Cc1,to represent the base year 2006 cargo throughput performances of Port-Harcourt,Lagos,Warri,Onne and Calabar seaport respectively;and n,d,to represent the number of post privatization years covered in the study and common difference in cargo throughput performances;the study used a historical design approach in which time series data on cargo throughput performances of the ports were obtained from the Nigeria ports Authority(NPA)annual statistical reports were analyzed using the converging and diverging arithmetic series mathematical modeling tool and MATLAB software,to determine benchmark models,for ensuring that the improved cargo throughput performances of the various seaports,are sustained to remain higher that the pre-privatization cargo throughput performances.The study developed the following Cargo throughput benchmark models for each seaport as findings.Lagos port=CL1+(n–1)d≥15223340;Onne port=Co1+(n-1)d≥15820381;Port-Harcourt port=Cp1+(n-1)d≥28016979;Warri=Cw1+(n-1)d≥4643128;Calabar=Cc1+(n-1)d≥7963434.It was recommended that to improve port revenue which is a dependent factor on cargo throughput and vessel call rate,cargo throughput benchmarks model developed for the individual seaports should be used to empirically model quantum s of cargo throughput needed to economically sustain and improve the level of port operations.It should equally influence port marketing drives.This will ensure that the performance of the ports does not recede into the poor performance indices experienced in the pre-privatization era.
文摘为探究影响我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的因素,以及这些因素的影响因金融危机的爆发而发生的变化,建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量影响因素的向量自回归(Vector Auto Regression,VAR)模型,研究金融危机爆发前后交通运输固定投资、人民币实际有效汇率、外商直接投资、世界经济状况和国内经济状况对我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的影响.由方差分解分析发现:对交通运输体系固定投资的增加在金融危机后较之金融危机之前更能提高沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量;人民币实际有效汇率和外商直接投资的波动在金融危机之前、后对沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量均不构成显著影响;金融危机后世界经济的复苏明显提高沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量;我国国内经济状况对沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的影响在金融危机后大幅削弱.
