Evolution of seismic risk management for insurance over the past 30 years

During the past 30 years, there has been spectacular growth in the use of risk analysis and risk management tools developed by engineers in the financial and insurance sectors. The insurance, the reinsurance, and the investment banking sectors have enthusiastically adopted loss estimation tools developed by engineers in developing their business strategies and for managing their financial risks. As a result, insurance/reinsurance strategy has evolved as a major risk mitigation tool in managing catastrophe risk at the individual, corporate, and government level. This is particularly true in developed countries such as US, Western Europe, and Japan. Unfortunately, it has not received the needed attention in developing countries, where such a strategy for risk management is most needed. Fortunately, in the last five years, there has been excellent focus in developing ＂Insur Tech＂ tools to address the much needed ＂Insurance for the Masses＂, especially for the Asian Markets. In the earlier years of catastrophe model development, risk analysts were mainly concerned with risk reduction options through engineering strategies, and relatively little attention was given to financial and economic strategies. Such state-of-affairs still exists in many developing countries. The new developments in the science and technologies of loss estimation due to natural catastrophes have made it possible for financial sectors to model their business strategies such as peril and geographic diversification, premium calculations, reserve strategies, reinsurance contracts, and other underwriting tools. These developments have not only changed the way in which financial sectors assess and manage their risks, but have also changed the domain of opportunities for engineers and scientists.This paper will address the issues related to developing insurance/reinsurance strategies to mitigate catastrophe risks and describe the role catastrophe risk insurance and reinsurance has played in managing financial risk due to natural catastrophes. Historical losses and the share of those losses covered by insurance will be presented. How such risk sharing can help the nation share the burden of losses between tax paying public, the ＂at risk＂ property owners, the insurers and the reinsurers will be discussed. The paper will summarize the tools that are used by the insurance and reinsurance companies for estimating their future losses due to catastrophic natural events. The paper will also show how the results of loss estimation technologies developed by engineers are communicated to the business flow of insurance/reinsurance companies. Finally, to make it possible to grow ＂Insurance for the Masses - IFM＂, the role played by parametric insurance products and Insur Tech tools will be discussed.

Catastrophe Risk Management for Electric Power Distribution Systems:An Insurance Approach

High-impact,low-probability catastrophes may cause equipment damage,customer outages and serious economic losses to an aging power distribution infrastructure with low redundancy and automation.To cope with catastrophe risks faced by distribution systems(DSs),insurance is proposed as a supplement to existing resilience enhancement measures,which can provide financial aid in recovery after disasters,as well as incentives to make DSs more resilient to potential hazards.This calls for a quantitative assessment for insurance pricing that can not only predict potential losses caused by future catastrophes but also evaluate the effect of risk management measures.In this paper,a four-module actuarial framework,including hazard,vulnerability,resilience,and insurance modules,is developed to assess the catastrophe risks of DSs.Based on Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)and mixed integer linear programming(MILP),the dynamic characteristics of disasters,random failures of equipment,control measures including fault isolation,load transfer,line patrolling,manual switching,and fault repair,are comprehensively incorporated in the premium determination of catastrophe insurance.Numerical simulations are performed on the modified IEEE 33-bus test systems to illustrate the validity of the proposed catastrophe insurance schemes.

Impact of Spatial Scale and Building Exposure Distribution on Earthquake Insurance Rates:A Case Study in Tangshan,China

In order to examine the effect of spatial scale and building exposure distribution on the pure rate of earthquake catastrophe insurance,this study described three modules for rate determination,put forward the general assumptions and principles for calculating the pure insurance rate,and introduced three types of building distribution and their calculation.Taking Tangshan City of Hebei Province in China as an example,we analyzed the pure rate of regional earthquake insurance in terms of spatial scale and building exposure distribution by using the method of control variables.The results show that for districts(or counties)with large differences in seismic risk,the risk areas can be further divided to apply differential rates.In areas with a diverse distribution of potential earthquake source areas and large differences in building density,there is a risk of overestimating or underestimating the pure rate of earthquake insurance when buildings are distributed evenly or partially evenly.This violates the break-even principle of rate setting.This study also provides a reference for earthquake catastrophe insurance companies to choose the spatial scale and the detailed level of exposure distribution in rate determination.