Based on catastrophe theory,we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines.According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts,we built a comprehensi...Based on catastrophe theory,we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines.According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts,we built a comprehensive evaluation index system and a coal and gas outburst prediction model.In addition,we performed a standard transformation for each index system;based on the degree the various indices affect the risk of an outburst,to make the data dimensionless.Based on the outburst data from eight mines,we determined catastrophe progression values and verified these values.The results show that:1) converting multi-dimensional problems into one-dimensional problems using this catastrophe progression method can simplify the steps of predicting coal and gas outbursts;2) when pre-determined catastrophe progression values are used to predict coal and gas outbursts,the predicting accuracy rate can be as high as 87.5%;3) the various coal mines have different factors inducing outbursts with varying importance of these factors and 4) the catastrophe progression values,calculated based on these factors,can be used effectively to predict the risk of outbursts in coal mines.展开更多
Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake.Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide.The...Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake.Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide.Therefore,it is imperative to develop effective earthquake vulnerability assessment and mapping at practically relevant scales.In this study,a holistic earthquake vulnerability index that addresses the multidimensional nature of earthquake vulnerability was constructed.With the aim of representing the vulnerability as a continuum across space,buildings were set as the smallest unit of analysis.The study area is in İzmit City of Turkey,with the exposed human and structural elements falling inside the most hazardous zone of seismicity.The index was represented by the building vulnerability,socioeconomic vulnerability,and vulnerability of the built environment.To minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty that the vulnerability indices based on expert knowledge are suffering from,an extension of the catastrophe progression method for the objective weighing of indicators was proposed.Earthquake vulnerability index and components were mapped,a local spatial autocorrelation metric was employed where the hotspot maps demarcated the earthquake vulnerability,and the study quantitatively revealed an estimate of people at risk.With its objectivity and straightforward implementation,the method can aid decision support for disaster risk reduction and emergency management.展开更多
An evaluation method for the seismic stability of embankment slope was presented based on catastrophe theory. Seven control factors, including internal frictional angle, cohesion force, slope height, slope angle, surf...An evaluation method for the seismic stability of embankment slope was presented based on catastrophe theory. Seven control factors, including internal frictional angle, cohesion force, slope height, slope angle, surface gradients, peak acceleration, and distance to fault were selected for analysis of multi-level objective decomposition. According to the normalization formula and the fuzzy subject function produced by combination of catastrophe theory and fuzzy math, a recursive calculation was carried out to obtain a catastrophic affiliated functional value, which can be used to evaluate the seismic stability of embankment slope. Fifteen samples were used to verify the effectiveness of this method. The results show that compared with the traditional quantitative method, the catastrophe progression owns higher accuracy and good application potential in predicting the seismic stability of embankment slope.展开更多
热应激会降低工作效率并导致热相关疾病。为了量化高温环境下环卫工人的热应激水平,建立一个生理状态安全评价指标(physiological state safety evaluation index,PSEI)。首先,引入尖点突变理论分析不同热环境下人体生理状态变化趋势。...热应激会降低工作效率并导致热相关疾病。为了量化高温环境下环卫工人的热应激水平,建立一个生理状态安全评价指标(physiological state safety evaluation index,PSEI)。首先,引入尖点突变理论分析不同热环境下人体生理状态变化趋势。其次,基于信息熵和变权理论计算生理指标的权重,并利用尖点突变级数法建立人体生理状态评价体系。最后,提出新评价指标PSEI以量化生理状态安全水平,并在此基础上确定PSEI的安全等级。结果表明:在不同环境条件和生理状态下,生理指标的权重是变化的;平均皮肤温度、耳膜温度、收缩压和心率的权重范围分别为0.09~0.64、0.08~0.41、0.07~0.74和0.06~0.33;PSEI的安全等级为:非常安全(0.948,1]、相对安全(0.886,0.948]、中等(0.798,0.886]、相对危险(0.649,0.798]和非常危险[0,0.649]。PSEI可为高温环境下环卫工人提供实时的生理状态安全评估和健康预警。展开更多
基金Projects 50574072, 50874089 and 50534049 supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China08JK366 by the Special Scientific Foundation of Educational Committee of Shaanxi Province
文摘Based on catastrophe theory,we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines.According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts,we built a comprehensive evaluation index system and a coal and gas outburst prediction model.In addition,we performed a standard transformation for each index system;based on the degree the various indices affect the risk of an outburst,to make the data dimensionless.Based on the outburst data from eight mines,we determined catastrophe progression values and verified these values.The results show that:1) converting multi-dimensional problems into one-dimensional problems using this catastrophe progression method can simplify the steps of predicting coal and gas outbursts;2) when pre-determined catastrophe progression values are used to predict coal and gas outbursts,the predicting accuracy rate can be as high as 87.5%;3) the various coal mines have different factors inducing outbursts with varying importance of these factors and 4) the catastrophe progression values,calculated based on these factors,can be used effectively to predict the risk of outbursts in coal mines.
基金supported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency under Project No.AFAD-UDAP-Ç-19-06.
文摘Vulnerability assessment and mapping play a crucial role in disaster risk reduction and planning for adaptation to a future earthquake.Turkey is one of the most at-risk countries for earthquake disasters worldwide.Therefore,it is imperative to develop effective earthquake vulnerability assessment and mapping at practically relevant scales.In this study,a holistic earthquake vulnerability index that addresses the multidimensional nature of earthquake vulnerability was constructed.With the aim of representing the vulnerability as a continuum across space,buildings were set as the smallest unit of analysis.The study area is in İzmit City of Turkey,with the exposed human and structural elements falling inside the most hazardous zone of seismicity.The index was represented by the building vulnerability,socioeconomic vulnerability,and vulnerability of the built environment.To minimize the subjectivity and uncertainty that the vulnerability indices based on expert knowledge are suffering from,an extension of the catastrophe progression method for the objective weighing of indicators was proposed.Earthquake vulnerability index and components were mapped,a local spatial autocorrelation metric was employed where the hotspot maps demarcated the earthquake vulnerability,and the study quantitatively revealed an estimate of people at risk.With its objectivity and straightforward implementation,the method can aid decision support for disaster risk reduction and emergency management.
基金financially supported by the open research fund of Key Laboratory of Highway Engineering of Sichuan Province, Southwest Jiaotong University (No. LHTE009201109)
文摘An evaluation method for the seismic stability of embankment slope was presented based on catastrophe theory. Seven control factors, including internal frictional angle, cohesion force, slope height, slope angle, surface gradients, peak acceleration, and distance to fault were selected for analysis of multi-level objective decomposition. According to the normalization formula and the fuzzy subject function produced by combination of catastrophe theory and fuzzy math, a recursive calculation was carried out to obtain a catastrophic affiliated functional value, which can be used to evaluate the seismic stability of embankment slope. Fifteen samples were used to verify the effectiveness of this method. The results show that compared with the traditional quantitative method, the catastrophe progression owns higher accuracy and good application potential in predicting the seismic stability of embankment slope.
文摘热应激会降低工作效率并导致热相关疾病。为了量化高温环境下环卫工人的热应激水平,建立一个生理状态安全评价指标(physiological state safety evaluation index,PSEI)。首先,引入尖点突变理论分析不同热环境下人体生理状态变化趋势。其次,基于信息熵和变权理论计算生理指标的权重,并利用尖点突变级数法建立人体生理状态评价体系。最后,提出新评价指标PSEI以量化生理状态安全水平,并在此基础上确定PSEI的安全等级。结果表明:在不同环境条件和生理状态下,生理指标的权重是变化的;平均皮肤温度、耳膜温度、收缩压和心率的权重范围分别为0.09~0.64、0.08~0.41、0.07~0.74和0.06~0.33;PSEI的安全等级为:非常安全(0.948,1]、相对安全(0.886,0.948]、中等(0.798,0.886]、相对危险(0.649,0.798]和非常危险[0,0.649]。PSEI可为高温环境下环卫工人提供实时的生理状态安全评估和健康预警。
