Application of a Bayesian method to data-poor stock assessment by using Indian Ocean albacore (Thunnus alalunga) stock assessment as an example

It is widely recognized that assessments of the status of data-poor fish stocks are challenging and that Bayesian analysis is one of the methods which can be used to improve the reliability of stock assessments in data-poor situations through borrowing strength from prior information deduced from species with good-quality data or other known information. Because there is considerable uncertainty remaining in the stock assessment of albacore tuna（Thunnus alalunga） in the Indian Ocean due to the limited and low-quality data, we investigate the advantages of a Bayesian method in data-poor stock assessment by using Indian Ocean albacore stock assessment as an example. Eight Bayesian biomass dynamics models with different prior assumptions and catch data series were developed to assess the stock. The results show（1） the rationality of choice of catch data series and assumption of parameters could be enhanced by analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters;（2） the reliability of the stock assessment could be improved by using demographic methods to construct a prior for the intrinsic rate of increase（r）. Because we can make use of more information to improve the rationality of parameter estimation and the reliability of the stock assessment compared with traditional statistical methods by incorporating any available knowledge into the informative priors and analyzing the posterior distribution based on Bayesian framework in data-poor situations, we suggest that the Bayesian method should be an alternative method to be applied in data-poor species stock assessment, such as Indian Ocean albacore.

A hyperbolic Lindstedt-Poincare method for homoclinic motion of a kind of strongly nonlinear autonomous oscillators

A hyperbolic Lindstedt-Poincare method is presented to determine the homoclinic solutions of a kind of nonlinear oscillators, in which critical value of the homoclinic bifurcation parameter can be determined. The generalized Lienard oscillator is studied in detail, and the present method＇s predictions are compared with those of Runge-Kutta method to illustrate its accuracy.

Optical fiber positioning based on four-quadrant detector with Gaussian fitting method

With the development of large-scale spectral surveys, fiber positioning technology has been developing rapidly. Because of the performance advantages of a four-quadrant（4Q） detector, a fiber positioning and real-time monitoring system based on the 4Q detector is proposed. The detection accuracy of this system is directly determined by the precision of the center of the spot. A Gaussian fitting algorithm based on the 4Q detector is studied and applied in the fiber positioning process to improve the calculated accuracy of the spot center. The relationship between the center position of the incident spot and the detector output signal is deduced. An experimental platform is built to complete the simulated experiment. Then we use the Gaussian fitting method to process experimental data, compare the fitting value with the theoretical one and calculate the corresponding error.

Surface and Texture Properties of Tb-Doped Ceria-Zirconia Solid Solution Prepared by Sol-Gel Method

The three-way catalysts （TWCs） promoters Ce0.6Zr0.4- x TbxO2-y were prepared by sol-gel method. BET surface areas analysis indicated that an increase of the dopant Tb content from x = 0.05 to x = 0.15 favors an increase of surface area from 66.8 to 80.4 m^2· g^-1 compared with the undoped sample Ce0 .6oZr0.40O2 65.1 m^2·g^- 1 after calcination at 650℃. Transmission electron microscopy （TEM） observation indicated that the doped samples have a higher thermal stability. The XRD and Raman spectra confirmed that the Ce0.6Zr0.4-xTbxO2-y cubic solid solution is formed. XPS analysis revealed that Ce and Tb mainly existed in the form of Ce^4＋ and Tb^3 ＋ , and Zr existed in the form of Zr^4＋ on the surface of the samples. The doped samples were homogenous in composition ; the introduction of Tb into the CeO2-ZrO2 promoters resuited in the formation of a solid solution, and the concentration of surface lattice oxygen was increased.

Construction of n-sided polygonal spline element using area coordinates and B-net method

In general, triangular and quadrilateral elements are commonly applied in two-dimensional finite element methods. If they are used to compute polycrystalline materials, the cost of computation can be quite significant. Polygonal elements can do well in simulation of the materials behavior and provide greater flexibility for the meshing of complex geometries. Hence, the study on the polygonal element is a very useful and necessary part in the finite element method. In this paper, an n-sided polygonal element based on quadratic spline interpolant, denoted by PS2 element, is presented using the triangular area coordinates and the B-net method. The PS2 element is conforming and can exactly model the quadratic field. It is valid for both convex and non-convex polygonal element, and insensitive to mesh distortions. In addition, no mapping or coordinate transformation is required and thus no Jacobian matrix and its inverse are evaluated. Some appropriate examples are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed element.

Multi-train modeling and simulation integrated with traction power supply solver using simplified Newton–Raphson method

Multi-train modeling and simulation plays a vital role in railway electrification during operation and planning phase. Study of peak power demand and energy consumed by each traction substation needs to be deter- mined to verify that electrical energy flowing in its railway power feeding system is appropriate or not. Gauss-Seidel, conventional Newton-Raphson, and current injection methods are well-known and widely accepted as a tool for electrical power network solver in DC railway power supply study. In this paper, a simplified Newton-Raphson method has been proposed. The proposed method employs a set of current-balance equations at each electrical node instead of the conventional power-balance equation used in the conventional Newton-Raphson method. This concept can remarkably reduce execution time and computing complexity for multi-train simulation. To evaluate its use, Sukhumvit line of Bangkok transit system （BTS） of Thai- land with 21.6-km line length and 22 passenger stopping stations is set as a test system. The multi-train simulation integrated with the proposed power network solver is developed to simulate 1-h operation service of selected 5-min headway. From the obtained results, the proposed method is more efficient with approximately 18 % faster than the conventional Newton-Raphson method and just over 6 % faster than the current injection method.

A meshfree-based local Galerkin method with condensation of degree of freedom for elastic dynamic analysis

Condensation technique of degree of freedom is first proposed to improve the computational efficiency of meshfree method with Galerkin weak form for elastic dy- namic analysis. In the present method, scattered nodes with- out connectivity are divided into several subsets by cells with arbitrary shape. Local discrete equation is established over each cell by using moving Kriging interpolation, in which the nodes that located in the cell are used for approxima- tion. Then local discrete equations can be simplified by con- densation of degree of freedom, which transfers equations of inner nodes to equations of boundary nodes based on cells. The global dynamic system equations are obtained by as- sembling all local discrete equations and are solved by using the standard implicit Newmark＇s time integration scheme. In the scheme of present method, the calculation of each cell is carried out by meshfree method, and local search is imple- mented in interpolation. Numerical examples show that the present method has high computational efficiency and good accuracy in solving elastic dynamic problems.

A hybrid vertex-centered finite volume/element method for viscous incompressible flows on non-staggered unstructured meshes

This paper proposes a hybrid vertex-centered fi- nite volume/finite element method for solution of the two di- mensional （2D） incompressible Navier-Stokes equations on unstructured grids. An incremental pressure fractional step method is adopted to handle the velocity-pressure coupling. The velocity and the pressure are collocated at the node of the vertex-centered control volume which is formed by join- ing the centroid of cells sharing the common vertex. For the temporal integration of the momentum equations, an im- plicit second-order scheme is utilized to enhance the com- putational stability and eliminate the time step limit due to the diffusion term. The momentum equations are discretized by the vertex-centered finite volume method （FVM） and the pressure Poisson equation is solved by the Galerkin finite el- ement method （FEM）. The momentum interpolation is used to damp out the spurious pressure wiggles. The test case with analytical solutions demonstrates second-order accuracy of the current hybrid scheme in time and space for both veloc- ity and pressure. The classic test cases, the lid-driven cavity flow, the skew cavity flow and the backward-facing step flow, show that numerical results are in good agreement with the published benchmark solutions.

Short-term solar flare prediction using multi-model integration method

A multi-model integration method is proposed to develop a multi-source and heterogeneous model for short-term solar flare prediction. Different prediction models are constructed on the basis of extracted predictors from a pool of observation databases. The outputs of the base models are normal- ized first because these established models extract predictors from many data resources using different prediction methods. Then weighted integration of the base models is used to develop a multi-model integrated model （MIM）. The weight set that single models assign is optimized by a genetic algorithm. Seven base models and data from Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager lon- gitudinal magnetograms are used to construct the MIM, and then its performance is evaluated by cross validation. Experimental results showed that the MIM outperforms any individual model in nearly every data group, and the richer the diversity of the base models, the better the performance of the MIM. Thus, integrating more diversified models, such as an expert system, a statistical model and a physical model, will greatly improve the performance of the MIM.

A class of fully third-order accurate projection methods for solving the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations

In this paper, a fully third-order accurate projection method for solving the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations is proposed. To construct the scheme, a continuous projection procedure is firstly presented. We then derive a sufficient condition for the continuous projection equations to be temporally third-order accurate approximations of the original Navier-Stokes equations by means of the localtruncation-error-analysis technique. The continuous projection equations are discretized temporally and spatially to third-order accuracy on the staggered grids, resulting in a fully third-order discrete projection scheme. The possibility to design higher-order projection methods is thus demonstrated in the present paper. A heuristic stability analysis is performed on this projection method showing the probability of its being stable. The stability of the present scheme is further verified through numerical tests. The third-order accuracy of the present projection method is validated by several numerical test cases.

Pseudo-beam method for compressive buckling characteristics analysis of space inflatable load-carrying structures

This paper extends Le van＇s work to the case of nonlinear problem and the complicated configuration. The wrinkling stress distribution and the pressure effects are also included in our analysis. Pseudo-beam method is presented based on the inflatable beam theory to model the inflatable structures as a set of inflatable beam elements with a prestressed state. In this method, the discretized nonlinear equations are given based upon the virtual work principle with a 3-node Timoshenko＇s beam model. Finite element simulation is performed by using a 3-node BEAM189 element incorporating ANSYS nonlinear program. The pressure effect is equivalent included in our method by modifying beam element cross-section parameters related to pressure. A benchmark example, the bending case of an inflatable cantilever beam, is performed to verify the accuracy of our proposed method. The comparisons reveal that the numerical results obtained with our method are close to open published analytical and membrane finite element results. The method is then used to evaluate the whole buckling and the loadcarrying characteristics of an inflatable support frame subjected to a compression force. The wrinkling stress and region characteristics are also shown in the end. This method gives better convergence characteristics, and requires much less computation time. It is very effective to deal with the whole load-carrying ability analytical problems for large scale inflatable structures with complex configuration.

Two 8-node quadrilateral spline elements by B-net method

Isoparametric quadrilateral elements are widely used in the finite element method, but the accuracy of the isoparametric quadrilateral elements will drop obviously deteriorate due to mesh distortions. Spline functions have some properties of simplicity and conformality. Two 8-node quadrilateral elements have been developed using the trian- gular area coordinates and the B-net method, which can ex- actly model the quadratic field for both convex and concave quadrangles. Some appropriate examples are employed to evaluate the performance of the proposed elements. The nu- merical results show that the two spline elements can obtain solutions which are highly accurate and insensitive to mesh distortions.

Preparation of BaCe_(0.5)Zr_(0.4)Y_(0.1)O_(3-α) by Sol-Gel Method and Its Electrical Properties

A precursor of BaCe0.5Zr0.4Y0. 1O3-α electrolytes was synthesized by the sol-gel method and sintered at temperature which were 150 - 250 ℃ lower than by solid state reaction. The AC impedance spectrums of electrolytes were measured by AUTOLAB PGSTA30 electrochemical measuring device at different temperatures. The conductivities of the electrolytes are 1.62×10^-4 - 6.43×10^-3, 2.52×10^-5 - 3.73×10^-3S·cm^-1 in the temperature range of 350-800℃. The activity energies are 0.54 and 0.84 eV. At the same time BaCe0.9Y0.1O3-α was prepared by direct solid state reaction. The conductivity of BaCe0.9Y0.1O3-α is 1 × 10^-4- 4×10^-3 S·cm^-1 and the activation energy is 0.50 eV at the same condition. The results show that conduction of electrolyte prepared by sol-gel method is higher than the one by solid state reaction. As far as BaCe0.9Y0.1O3-α concerned, its conductivity of the Zr-substituted specimens is decreased.

基于Test Method 1311法重结晶α-半水石膏重金属元素的浸出特性研究

以脱硫石膏及其常压盐溶液法重结晶得到的α-半水石膏为研究对象,采用改进的Tessier流程和Test Method 1311法研究两种石膏晶体重金属元素的赋存形态和浸出特性,并对其进行环境效应评价。结果表明:重结晶过程能够释放脱硫石膏中的重金属元素并使其赋存形态改变;重结晶后石膏晶体中的重金属组分短期内可达到释放平衡,其中Cr、Pb、Ni元素的最大浸出量明显低于对应的脱硫石膏,As元素的浸出量几乎不变;α-半水石膏的环境友好性优于脱硫石膏,但仍具有污染环境的潜在风险。

Microwave absorption properties regulation and bandwidth formula of oriented Y_(2)Fe_(17)N_(3-δ)@SiO_(2)/PU composite synthesized by reduction-diffusion method

As concepts closely related to microwave absorption properties,impedance matching and phase matching were rarely combined with material parameters to regulate properties and explore related mechanisms.In this work,reduction–diffusion method was innovatively applied to synthesize rare earth alloy Y_(2)Fe_(17).In order to regulate the electromagnetic parameters of absorbers,the Y_(2)Fe_(17)N_(3-δ)particles were coated with silica(Y_(2)Fe_(17)N_(3-δ)@SiO_(2))and absorbers with different volume fractions were prepared.The relationship between impedance matching,matching thickness,and the strongest reflection loss peak(RLmin)was presented obviously.Compared to the microwave absorption properties of Y_(2)Fe_(17)N_(3-δ)/PU absorber,Y_(2)Fe_(17)N_(3-δ)@SiO_(2)/PU absorbers are more conducive to the realization of microwave absorption material standards which are thin thickness,light weight,strong absorbing intensity,and broad bandwidth.Based on microwave frequency bands,the microwave absorption properties of the absorbers were analyzed and the related parameters were listed.As an important parameter related to perfect matching,reflection factor(√ε_(r)/μ_(r))was discussed combined with microwave amplitude attenuation.According to the origin and mathematical model of bandwidth,the formula of EAB(RL<-10 dB)was derived and simplified.The calculated bandwidths agreed well with experimental results.

Analytical and Traveling Wave Solutions to the Fifth Order Standard Sawada-Kotera Equation via the Generalized exp(-Φ(ξ))-Expansion Method

In this article, we propose a generalized exp(-Φ(ξ))-expansion method and successfully implement it to find exact traveling wave solutions to the fifth order standard Sawada-Kotera (SK) equation. The exact traveling wave solutions are established in the form of trigonometric, hyperbolic, exponential and rational functions with some free parameters. It is shown that this method is standard, effective and easily applicable mathematical tool for solving nonlinear partial differential equations arises in the field of mathematical physics and engineering.

SELECTING CLUSTER MODEL IN Sn - BASED SOLDER ALLOY DESIGN WITH DV - X_α CALCULATION METHOD

Applying calculation method in alloy design should be an important tendency due to its characters of inexpensive cost, high efficiency and prediction. DOS calculations of AuSn, AsSn and SbSn Sn- based alloys have been investigated by employing DV - Xa method, in which different cluster models were adopted to calculate electron structure.It is proved that some regulations must be taken into ac- count in order to carry out alloy design calculation successfully,which are described in this paper in detail.

A, ■-Ω METHOD FOR 3-D EDDY CURRENT ANALYSIS

After the field equations and the snonumuoo conditions between the interfaces for 3D eddy current problems Under various gauges were discussed, it was pointed cut in this paper that using the magnetic vector potential A. the electric scalar potential and Coulomb gauge △ .A = 0 in eddy current regions and using the magntetic scalar potential Ω in the non-conducting regions are more suitable. All field equations, the boundary conditions, the interface continuity conditions and the corresponding variational principle of this method are also given

Synthesis of M1-3xAl2O4:Eu2+x/Dy3+ 2x(M^2+= Sr^2+, Ca^2+ and Ba^2+) phosphors with long-lasting phosphorescence properties via co-precipitation method

The long afterglow fluorescent material of M1-3xAl2O4:Eu2+ x/Dy3+2x(M2+= Sr2+, Ca2+ and Ba2+) phosphors are successfully synthesized by calcining precursor obtained via co-precipitation method at 1300oC for 4 h with reducing atmosphere (20% H2 and 80% N2). The phase evolution, morphology and afterglow fluorescent properties are systematically studied by the various instruments of XRD, FE-SEM, PLE/PL spectroscopy and fluorescence decay analysis. The PL spectra shows that the Sr1-3xAl2O4:Eu2+x/Dy3+ 2x phosphors display vivid green emission at s519 nm (4f65d1!4f7 transition of Eu2+) with monitoring of the maximum excitation wavelength at s334 nm (8S7=2!6IJ transition of Eu2+), among which the optimal concentration of Eu2+ and Dy3+ is 15 at.% and 30 at.%, respectively. The color coordinates and temperature of Sr1-3xAl2O4:Eu2+ x/Dy3+ 2x phosphors are approximately at (s0.27, s0.57) and s6700 K, respectively. On the above basis, the M0:55Al2O4:Eu2+ 0:15/Dy3+ 0:3 (M2+= Ca2+ and Ba2+) phosphors is obtained by the same method. The PL spectra of these phosphors shows the strongest blue emission at s440 nm and cyan emission at s499 nm under s334 nm wavelength excitation, respectively, which are blue shifted comparing to Sr1??3xAl2O4:Eu2+ x/Dy3+ 2x phosphors. The color coordinates and temperatures of M0:55Al2O4:Eu2+ 0:15/Dy3+ 0:3 (M2+= Ca2+ and Ba2+) phosphors are approximately at (s0.18, s0.09), s2000 K and (s0.18, s0.42), s11600 K, respectively. In this work, long afterglow materials of green, blue and cyan aluminates phosphors with excellent properties have been prepared, in order to obtain wide application in the field of night automatic lighting and display.

Synthesis and Characterization of Pr_(0.6-x)Nd_xCa_(0.4)FeO_ (3-δ) with Pechini Method

Pr0.6-x NdxCa0.4 FeO3-δ （ x = 0.0, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6） were synthesized using Pechini method. A number of studies were conducted concerning composition, specific area, crystalline structure and microstructure of the samples by means of FT-IR, BET, XRD TG-DTA and SEM. The results show that all the samples with different doping amounts of Pr^3＋ and Nd^3＋ on A-site are fine dispersed, and mean particle size less than 100 nm. The powders have good sinterability, and the relative density is 95% after sintered at 1200 ℃ for 2 h. It is found that all specimens are entirely single phase solid solutions with orthorhombic perovskite structure, the stable perovskitetype phase is formed completely after calcination at 900 ℃.