Causal Analysis on the Lining Exfoliation and Treatment Design of an Operational Tunnel

According to the actual situation of the secondary lining of a expressway tunnel in Chongqing,this paper analyzed the specific reasons for lining exfoliation with corresponding test reports.According to this,a quick treatment scheme for lining exfoliation is proposed,which can make the treatment timely and effective,and suggestions for treating similar diseases in tunnels are put forward,which can provide reference for similar projects.

Studying History Education of High School in Taiwan by Causal Layered Analysis

After the 21st century,high school history learning will focus on teachers promoting the twelve-year state education.In recent years,in line with the changes in the new 108-year social curriculum,supporting strategies have been proposed:such as literacy orientation,inquiry and practice,learning process archives,and the structural direction of the controversial Chinese history into East Asian history.Historical learning has indeed had a great impact on the people’s national spiritual education and the development of historical consciousness in Taiwan’s education policy.This is the reason Taiwan’s Ministry of Education strives to improve students’historical literacy and connotation application abilities.When developing a learning policy,both external and internal learning factors need to be considered.The external aspect deals with the reasons for learning:Is learning for the purpose of using or accumulating historical wisdom in daily life to learn from the past and the present,on the other hand,to test the content of the course and the degree of absorption;or is it specifically for exams or other enlightenment purposes.The internal aspect involves those most affected by the policy:students and teachers.After studying and observing high school history learning policies for decades,some alternative future visions for history learning were found in the method of reflection on future research-the conclusion is that history is interestingly revitalized,and the preferred future is thematic history.According to the famous futurology scholar Sohail Inayatuallah’s proposal:the causal layering model.It helps understand how Taiwan’s historical policies operate.And how teachers and students on the front line respond to changes and take future actions.The key is to change the future:in the process of building an alternative future,whether the internal and external mix has changed or whether you want to try new things and expand your horizons.In fact,the difficulty of teaching lies in students’cooperation and conscious learning.Therefore,in the analysis of learning through alternative futures,is it possible to distinguish between internal and external situations and methods such as:1.Internal:Is education centered on teachers?Or is it student-centered?2.External:Does the Ministry of Education prioritize testing,or encourage teachers to adopt interactive communication and integrate education into the curriculum?Therefore,what is the function and inspiration of studying high school history and life?If thematic history teaching is used:teachers can use thematic learning methods to help students focus on causal relationships,the causes of turning points,or the evolution process of the beginning and end of events.This is more advantageous for testing based on the application topic,and it is easy to test how much understanding and understanding of history?Has an activating effect.By studying history in high school,using the“CLA(Causal layered analysis)”method of future studies,you can enter the stage of worldview exploration with the goal of improving professional depth and emotional level,and use it in your own understanding and utilization of history.Based on research,some insights into the prospects and thinking of learning history in high schools are provided:1.Facing the impact of declining birthrate,Taiwan needs a macro perspective to improve its future competitiveness and look forward to a new perspective on world history,using futuristic cause-and-effect level analysis to combine world changes with daily life applications.2.The study of history in high schools should go into a systematic construction:understand its cause-and-effect relationships and global trends,so teachers play a professional and future role in controlling the use of new information and technology.3.In the future,humans may develop more“intelligent”needs.As a reference from history or to explore the preferred path for the future,there will also be a greater need to innovate and meet challenges.4.Studying high school history has entered the professional field.Through self-exploration,it can be transformed into life affairs and establish the concept and value of lifelong learning.5.In studying the“history of high school learning”,have new prospects for the future of education.Through professional knowledge such as“trend theory and causal hierarchy analysis”of futurology,pursue new horizons and visions,making future education full of hope and possibility.

Integrated causal inference modeling uncovers novel causal factors and potential therapeutic targets of Qingjin Yiqi granules for chronic fatigue syndrome

Objective:Chronic fatigue syndrome(CFS)is a prevalent symptom of post-coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)and is associated with unclear disease mechanisms.The herbal medicine Qingjin Yiqi granules(QJYQ)constitute a clinically approved formula for treating post-COVID-19;however,its potential as a drug target for treating CFS remains largely unknown.This study aimed to identify novel causal factors for CFS and elucidate the potential targets and pharmacological mechanisms of action of QJYQ in treating CFS.Methods:This prospective cohort analysis included 4,212 adults aged≥65 years who were followed up for 7 years with 435 incident CFS cases.Causal modeling and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify the potential causal determinants of CFS.A proteome-wide,two-sample Mendelian randomization(MR)analysis was employed to explore the proteins associated with the identified causal factors of CFS,which may serve as potential drug targets.Furthermore,we performed a virtual screening analysis to assess the binding affinity between the bioactive compounds in QJYQ and CFS-associated proteins.Results:Among 4,212 participants(47.5%men)with a median age of 69 years(interquartile range:69–70 years)enrolled in 2004,435 developed CFS by 2011.Causal graph analysis with multivariate logistic regression identified frequent cough(odds ratio:1.74,95%confidence interval[CI]:1.15–2.63)and insomnia(odds ratio:2.59,95%CI:1.77–3.79)as novel causal factors of CFS.Proteome-wide MR analysis revealed that the upregulation of endothelial cell-selective adhesion molecule(ESAM)was causally linked to both chronic cough(odds ratio:1.019,95%CI:1.012–1.026,P=2.75 e^(−05))and insomnia(odds ratio:1.015,95%CI:1.008–1.022,P=4.40 e^(−08))in CFS.The major bioactive compounds of QJYQ,ginsenoside Rb2(docking score:−6.03)and RG4(docking score:−6.15),bound to ESAM with high affinity based on virtual screening.Conclusions:Our integrated analytical framework combining epidemiological,genetic,and in silico data provides a novel strategy for elucidating complex disease mechanisms,such as CFS,and informing models of action of traditional Chinese medicines,such as QJYQ.Further validation in animal models is warranted to confirm the potential pharmacological effects of QJYQ on ESAM and as a treatment for CFS.

Causal analysis of the diversity of medusae in East China Sea

Based on the maritime data collected from 23°30′-33°00′N and 118°30′-128°00′E of the East China Sea(ECS)in four seasons during 1997-2000,the dynamics of medusae diversity and their causes were analyzed.A total of 103 medusae species were identified,and these species mainly distributed in the southern and north-ern offshore areas of the ECS.Species diversity index(H′)of medusae was higher in the south than those in the north,higher in summer and winter than in spring and autumn,and higher in offshore than in the nearshore areas.The species number was closely correlated with H′value,whereas the abundance of species had no significant rela-tionship with the diversity index.The lower H′value of the nearshore in spring and autumn resulted from the aggregation of Muggiaea atlantica in the south nearshore and Diphyes chamissonis in the north nearshore.In addition,water temperature,followed by salinity,is the main environmental factor influencing the distribution of species diversity.The H′value was related to the water temperature at the 10 m layer in winter and spring,and it was associated with the surface water temperature in summer and with the 10 m-salinity-layer in autumn.In spring and summer,the isoline distribution of H′value reflected the direction of the Taiwan Warm Current and the variation of the water masses in the ECS.In winter,the isoline of the H′value indicated the incursion of Kuroshio current.In conclusion,the H′isoline is an good indicator for water masses in ECS.

Air target intention recognition and causal effect analysis combining uncertainty information reasoning and potential outcome framework

Recognizing target intent is crucial for making decisions on the battlefield.However,the imperfect and ambiguous character of battlefield situations challenges the validity and causation analysis of classical intent recognition techniques.Facing with the challenge,a target intention causal analysis paradigm is proposed by combining with an Intervention Retrieval(IR)model and a Hybrid Intention Recognition(HIR)model.The target data acquired by the sensors are modelled as Basic Probability Assignments(BPAs)based on evidence theory to create uncertain datasets.Then,the HIR model is utilized to recognize intent for a tested sample from uncertain datasets.Finally,the intervention operator under the evidence structure is utilized to perform attribute intervention on the tested sample.Data retrieval is performed in the sample database based on the IR model to generate the intention distribution of the pseudo-intervention samples to analyze the causal effects of individual sample attributes.The simulation results demonstrate that our framework successfully identifies the target intention under the evidence structure and goes further to analyze the causal impact of sample attributes on the target intention.

Influence of preterm birth on the association between gestational diabetes mellitus and childhood developmental vulnerability:a causal mediation analysis

Background Epidemiological studies examining the direct and indirect effects of gestational diabetes mellitus(GDM)on offspring early childhood developmental vulnerability are lacking.Therefore,the aims of this study were to estimate the direct and indirect effects of GDM(through preterm birth)on early childhood developmental vulnerability.Methods We conducted a retrospective population-based cohort study on the association between gestational diabetes mellitus and early childhood developmental vulnerability in children born in Western Australia(WA)using maternal,infant and birth records from the Midwives Notification,Hospitalizations,Developmental Anomalies,and the Australian Early Development Census(AEDC)databases.We used two aggregated outcome measures:developmentally vulnerable on at least one AEDC domain(DV1)and developmentally vulnerable on at least two AEDC domains(DV2).Causal mediation analysis was applied to estimate the natural direct(NDE),indirect(NIE),and total(TE)effects as relative risks(RR).Results In the whole cohort(n=64,356),approximately 22%were classified as DV1 and 11%as DV2 on AEDC domains.Estimates of the natural direct effect suggested that children exposed to GDM were more likely to be classified as DV1(RR=1.20,95%CI:1.10-1.31)and DV2(RR=1.34,95%CI:1.19-1.50)after adjusting for potential confounders.About 6%and 4%of the effect of GDM on early childhood developmental vulnerability was mediated by preterm birth for DV1 and DV2,respectively.Conclusion Children exposed to gestational diabetes mellitus were more likely to be developmentally vulnerable in one or more AEDC domains.The biological mechanism for these associations is not well explained by mediation through preterm birth.

Analysis of Causes and Seasonal Prediction of the Severe Floods in Yangtze／Huaihe Basins during Summer 1991

The present paper shows that a seasonal prediction for the large scale flooding and waterlogging of the mid-lower Yangtze/ Huaihe River basins in the summer of 1991 made successfully in early April 1991.The seasonal forecasting method and some predictors are also introduced and analyzed herein. Because the extra extent of the abnormally early onset of the plum rain period in 1991 was unexpected,great efforts have been made to find out the causes of this abnormality. These causes are mainly associated with the large scale warming of SST surrounding the south and east part of Asia during the preceding winter,while the ENSO-like pattern of SSTA occurred in the North Pacific.In addition,the possible influence of strong solar proton events is analyzed.In order to improve the seasonal pre4iction the usage of the predicted SOl in following spring/summer is also introduced.The author believes thatthe regional climate anomaly can be correctly predicted for one season ahead only on the basis of physical understanding of the interactions of many preceding factors.

Regional Financial Development and Regional Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Suzhou City, China

There are many defects in researches on the relationship of the regional financial development (FD) and economic growth of China, such as simply assuming the causality direction, not highlighting financial institution, using incomplete financial indicator, etc. This article, taking Suzhou City of Jiangsu Province, China as a case, builds a simple model to study the level of FD from three aspects of financial scale, structure and institution. Three original indicators of PRIVY (private investment/aggregate investment), DEPTH (aggregate loan/GDP) and FDIVG (FDI/GDP) are used to construct the FD economic indicator through Principal Component Analysis approach. Then we use Granger method to analyze the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou. Empirical test results show that the FD of Suzhou is the Granger reason of economic growth, while economic growth is not the reason for FD, because the relationship between the FD and the economic growth of Suzhou is just in the ″supply-leading″ period. In terms of Suzhou experiences, the local government should strengthen the protection of private investment, improve the institutional environment, and establish the reasonable financial structure. So we can concluded that FD could play a great role in promoting economic growth at the economy takeoff stage.

Understanding the Soil Temperature Variability at Different Depths:Effects of Surface Air Temperature,Snow Cover,and the Soil Memory

The soil temperature(ST)is closely related to the surface air temperature(AT),but their coupling may be affected by other factors.In this study,significant effects of the AT on the underlying ST were found,and the time taken to propagate downward to 320 cm can be up to 10 months.Besides the AT,the ST is also affected by memory effects-namely,its prior thermal conditions.At deeper depth(i.e.,320 cm),the effects of the AT from a particular season may be exceeded by the soil memory effects from the last season.At shallower layers(i.e.,<80 cm),the effects of the AT may be blocked by the snow cover,resulting in a poorly synchronous correlation between the AT and the ST.In northeastern China,this snow cover blockage mainly occurs in winter and then vanishes in the subsequent spring.Due to the thermal insulation effect of the snow cover,the winter ST at layers above 80 cm in northeastern China were found to continue to increase even during the recent global warming hiatus period.These findings may be instructive for better understanding ST variations,as well as land−atmosphere interactions.

Relations between Low-Frequency Modes of Climate Variability and Air-Sea Heat Flux at the Mediterranean Interface

The main objective of this work is to examine statistical causality relationships between low-frequency modes of climate variability and winter （December to February） anomaly of net heat flux at the Mediterranean air-sea interface. The introduction of the concept of Granger causality allowed us to examine the influence of these climates indices on the net heat flux anomaly and to select Mediterranean surface regions that really influenced by each index. Results show that the winter anomaly of the net heat flux in the Algerian basin south and the gulf of Lion is mainly caused by the Arctic Oscillation. El Nifio-Southern Oscillation influences much more the Algerian basin north and the northern lonian Sea. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation affects only the Alboran and the Tyrrhenian Seas. But the Adriatic and Levantine basin are impacted by any climate index. They also show that these climate indices can increase explained variance in winter variations of air-sea net heat flux by 10% to 15%, with a lag of three seasons. These relationships are less persistent and spatially limited.

A New Paradigm for Understanding the Roots of the Conflict in Darfur

The conflict in Darfur, which raged most intensely between 2003 and 2008, is the latest in its long history of intertribal struggle for natural resources （Mamdani, 2009, p. 4）. To the average Westerner, whose awareness of monolithic ＂Africa＂ is usually shoddy at best, Darfur is a faraway land full of violence and injustice heretofore unseen in its history. Mamdani （2009）, specifically discusses the way US media portrayed the conflict there, focusing on its distortion through the lens of America＇s post-9/11 consciousness. He highlights the simplification of the conflict, the ease with which it became a matter of good versus evil, and the nebulous assertions that genocide was ongoing between 2004 and 2007, after which Darfur as a whole faded from public view （pp. 48-51, 67-71）. Made evident by US miscalculations in managing ethnic tensions in Iraq----decisions made during the same period--the need to deeply understand the cultural fabric of a region before attempts can be made to stem its bloodshed is obvious, if not mandatory. That understanding drives this discussion. It is predicated on the fact that intercommunal conflict has been a feature of Darfur＇s life for generations, brought about by the overlap between the two dominant modes of life in Darfur--pastoral and nomadic on the one hand, agricultural and settled on the other. Using analyses of the historical body of work on Sudan and Darfur, a new paradigm for understanding its modem conflict is presented below. It begins with a layered analysis that starts from the historical foundations and then adds thematically consistent modules, which have affected the social, political, and economic structure of the region. The dramatic transformations in narrative and worldview are the building blocks of the conflict that has been in progress, at varying levels of intensity, for the past 12 years.

Linkage between riverbed scouring or deposition and the evolution of central bars:Case study in the Yangzhong reach of the Yangtze River

Understanding the relationship between unbalanced riverbed scouring or deposition and the evolution of central bars in natural conditions and human activity is useful for river regime control and waterway improvement projects.Toward this end,we utilized the Yangzhong reach in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River as a case study and evaluated runoff,sediment content,and topographical data measured over the past 70 years(1951–2021).With the decrease in the amount of incoming sediment in the river basin,the Yangzhong reach exhibited a continuous state of scouring.The cumulative riverbed scouring volumes of the low-water and flood channels from 1981 to 2021 were 3.97×10^(8)and 4.14×10^(8)m^(3),respectively,with the riverbed scouring volume of the low-water channel accounting for 95.9%of that of the flood channel.Under quasi-natural runoff–sediment conditions,the evolution of the central bars in the Yangzhong reach was highly correlated with the amount of scouring or deposition.In particular,the Luochengzhou reach could be characterized as a meandering river with scouring on concave riverbanks and deposition on convex riverbanks.In the context of reduced incoming sediment,the beach area of the Yangzhong reach decreased by approximately 9.9%(from 2003 to 2021)and the central bars of the straight section areas decreased.Moreover,following operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir,both the Luocheng central bar and Jiangyin beach areas could be characterized as meandering rivers with convex riverbanks and beaches.In the quasi-natural period before the implementation of the waterway improvement project,the trend of high scouring intensity and increased fluid diversion ratio in the right branch of the Luocheng central bar was in accordance with the law that the short branch of the length is in a developing state under the condition of decreasing river sediment volume.With the control of riverbank protection and the construction of waterway improvement projects in the Yangzhong reach,the shapes of the riverbanks and central bars were effectively stabilized,and the linkage relationship formed in the quasi-natural period was interrupted.Overall,these findings provide a strong foundation for understanding riverbed scouring or deposition and the evolution of central bars under the influence of natural conditions and human activities,and will inform future river management and waterway dimension planning.

Confounding amplifies the effect of environmental factors on COVID-19

The global COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted human health and socioeconomic development,posing an enormous public health challenge.Extensive research has been conducted into the relationship between environmental factors and the transmission of COVID-19.However,numerous factors influence the development of pandemic outbreaks,and the presence of confounding effects on the mechanism of action complicates the assessment of the role of environmental factors in the spread of COVID-19.Direct estimation of the role of environmental factors without removing the confounding effects will be biased.To overcome this critical problem,we developed a Double Machine Learning(DML)causal model to estimate the debiased causal effects of the influencing factors in the COVID-19 outbreaks in Chinese cities.Comparative experiments revealed that the traditional multiple linear regression model overestimated the impact of environmental factors.Environmental factors are not the dominant cause of widespread outbreaks in China in 2022.In addition,by further analyzing the causal effects of environmental factors,it was verified that there is significant heterogeneity in the role of environmental factors.The causal effect of environmental factors on COVID-19 changes with the regional environment.It is therefore recommended that when exploring the mechanisms by which environmental factors influence the spread of epidemics,confounding factors must be handled carefully in order to obtain clean quantitative results.This study offers a more precise representation of the impact of environmental factors on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic,as well as a framework for more accurately quantifying the factors influencing the outbreak.

THE FLUCTUATIONS OF DRY AND WET CLIMATE BOUNDARY AND ITS CAUSAL ANALYSES IN CHINA

Based on yearly precipitation and Φ20 evaporation pan data during 1951 to 1999 of 295 stations,the aridity index is calculated in this paper.According to the aridity index,the climatic regions in China are divided into three types:the arid zone,the semi-arid zone and the humid zone. Isoline 0.20 is the boundary between arid and semi-arid zones.Isoline 0.50 is the boundary between semi-arid and humid zones.The fluctuations of dry and wet climate boundaries are very substantial,have greatly regional difference,and have the features of the whole shifting along the same direction and of the opposite moving along the contrary direction over the past 50 years.The semi-arid zone is a transitional zone between humid and arid zones,a border belt of monsoon,and a susceptible zone of environmental evolution in China. In the period of the late 1960s to the early 1970s,remarkable change had occurred for dry and wet climate in China.It manifests significantly that climate is from wetter into drought in most regions of northern China.Moreover,drought has an increasing trend.The fluctuations of climatic boundaries and the dry and wet variations in climate have substantial inter-decadal features. The main factors affecting the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and the dry and wet variations of climate in China are East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon in the Tibetan Plateau,westerly circulation,and West Pacific subtropical high.The different types of circulations and the strong and weak combinations of these circulations result in the regional differences of dry and wet climate changes in China.Inter-decadal variations of the dry and wet climate boundary fluctuations and of the arid and humid climate result from the inter-decadal changes of East Asian summer monsoon,Indian Monsoon,plateau monsoon,westerly circulation, and West Pacific subtropical high.The anomalous general atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during the late 1960s to the early 1970s is the causes of arid and humid climate remarkable change in China.

An exploration of meteorological effects on PM2.5 air quality in several provinces and cities in Vietnam

Linking meteorology and air pollutants is a key challenge.The study investigated meteorological effects on PM_(2.5)concentration using the advanced convergent cross mapping method,utilizing hourly PM_(2.5)concentration and six meteorological factors across eight provinces and cities in Vietnam.Results demonstrated that temperature(ρ=0.30)and radiation(ρ=0.30)produced the highest effects,followed by humidity(ρ=0.28)and wind speed(ρ=0.24),while pressure(ρ=0.22)and wind direction(ρ=0.17)produced the weakest effects on PM_(2.5)concentration.Comparing theρvalues showed that temperature,wind speed,and wind direction had greater impacts on PM_(2.5)concentration during the dry season whereas radiation had a more influence during the wet season;Southern stations experienced larger meteorological effects.Temperature,humidity,pressure,and wind direction had both positive and negative influences on PM_(2.5)concentration,while radiation and wind speed mostly had negative influences.During PM_(2.5)pollution episodes,there wasmore contribution ofmeteorological effects on PM_(2.5)concentration indicated byρvalues.At contaminated levels,humidity(ρ=0.45)was the most dominant factor affecting PM_(2.5)concentration,followed by temperature(ρ=0.41)and radiation(ρ=0.40).Pollution episodes were pointed out to be more prevalent under higher humidity,higher pressure,lower temperature,lower radiation,and lower wind speed.Theρcalculation also revealed that lower temperature,lower radiation,and higher humidity greatly accelerated each other under pollution episodes,further enhancing PM_(2.5)concentration.The findings contributed to the literature on meteorology and air pollution interaction.

Study on Functional Connectivity Density in Patients with Frontal Lobe Tumor at Resting-State

At present, the neuropathological mechanisms and the plastic changes of brain cognitive function in patents with front lobe tumor remain unclear, most studies just focused on global measures of brain functional connectivity without considering the time correlation in the different regions of the brain. This study aims to investigate brain cognitive alterations and functional plasticity in patients with front lobe tumor at resting-state by conducting functional connectivity density(FCD) mapping and granger causality analysis(GCA). Firstly, FCD mapping was used to extract abnormal functional connectivity(FC) of patients with frontal lobe tumor, and analyzed altered brain FC in both short-and long-range FCD. Then, the voxel-wise GCA method was used to analyze the causal relationship between altered FC regions and other regions in order to detect the time correlation between regions of interest(ROI) and reveal the direction of information flow between brain ROIs. It was found that patients had increased short-range FCD in motor and space attention function areas, had increased short-and long-range FCDs both in Temporal and Insula, and the causal coefficients were changed obviously in Temporal and Frontal. The results show that there is a functional plasticity in space attention function areas. Temporal and Insula are affected by tumor in frontal lobe, and functional reorganization appears inside Temporal.