Objective: To investigate the correlation of fibrinogen level and absorbance change in both PT and APTT clotting curves on BCSXP Analyzer. Methods:A serial of standard fibrinogen and 250 patient plasma samples with ...Objective: To investigate the correlation of fibrinogen level and absorbance change in both PT and APTT clotting curves on BCSXP Analyzer. Methods:A serial of standard fibrinogen and 250 patient plasma samples with different qualities(normal, hemolysis, icterus, and lipemia) were run on BCSXP for assays PT, APTT and Fibrinogen. The absorbance change(DeltaA) from baseline to plateau in clotting curve was retrieved and analyzed on its correlation with the Fibrinogen result. Influence of plasma quality and PT/ APTT result on this correlation was also studied respectively. Results:Both PT-DeltaA and APTT-DeltaA showed good linear regres- sion with fibrinogen level in the sample, with R2 close to 0.90 in both standard and patient samples. Hemolysis(H), itcterus(I) and lipemia(L) of the sample with valid clotting curves were found to have no significant difference in this correlation from normal(N) sample(R2: 0.83H, 0.92I, 0.81L and 0.79N in PT; 0.89H, 0.95l, 0.91L and 0.89N in APTT) in either PT or APTT curve. PT or APTT result also has little impact on this correlation(0.71 in range 7 - 10 sec, 0.56 inl0 - 20 sec, and 0.70 in 20 sec-; R2 in APTT: 0.88 in 20-30 sec, 0.92 in 30-40 sec, and 0.95 in 40 sec-). Conclusion:The absorbance change in either PT or APTT clotting curve correlates well with the fibrinogen level in plasma, which is independent of plasma quality PT or APTT results. The absorbance change can be used as an alternative way to roughly estimate fibrinogen level in either PT or APTT clotting curve when the result of clauss-based fibrinogen measurement is not available.展开更多
Observational evidence of unstable behavior for the W UMa type binary system V1073 Cygni is presented in this paper. Around 1939 the period of the binary suddenly decreased by 0 580 seconds and again suddenly decrease...Observational evidence of unstable behavior for the W UMa type binary system V1073 Cygni is presented in this paper. Around 1939 the period of the binary suddenly decreased by 0 580 seconds and again suddenly decreased by 0 746 seconds around 1981.Obvious variable O’ Connell effect of the light curves in V can be seen. The relation between the changes in the orbital period and variation in the O’ Connell effect and possible reasons for the unstable behavior of V1073 Cyg were discussed.展开更多
This paper first introduces procedures leading to the establishment of Late Permian-Middle Triassic sea level change curve of Yangtze platform. Bathymetric curves extracted from curve of habitat types are first trans...This paper first introduces procedures leading to the establishment of Late Permian-Middle Triassic sea level change curve of Yangtze platform. Bathymetric curves extracted from curve of habitat types are first transformed to sea level curves stage by stage. Comparison between curves of Yangtze and the world reveals that because the Late Permian marine sequences are lacking in most parts of the world, the Late Permian to Griesbachian curve of Yangtze may serve as an important reference for further revision of the world curve. The Early-Middle Triassic short-term changes of Yangtze are briefly concordant with those of Haq's world curve, whereas their long-term changes are discordant. The latter, however, is representative of the East Asian regions affected by the Indosinian orogeny. Basically the third cycles of Yangtze and the world are only pertly concordant, and even in concordant cases their concrete boundaries are not coincident. This indicater that sea level changes are not strictly synchronous over the world. It seems that the 1st and 2nd cycles (supercycles and megacycles) may be world-wide, but not the 3rd cycles.展开更多
The degree of spatial similarity plays an important role in map generalization, yet there has been no quantitative research into it. To fill this gap, this study first defines map scale change and spatial similarity d...The degree of spatial similarity plays an important role in map generalization, yet there has been no quantitative research into it. To fill this gap, this study first defines map scale change and spatial similarity degree/relation in multi-scale map spaces and then proposes a model for calculating the degree of spatial similarity between a point cloud at one scale and its gener- alized counterpart at another scale. After validation, the new model features 16 points with map scale change as the x coordinate and the degree of spatial similarity as the y coordinate. Finally, using an application for curve fitting, the model achieves an empirical formula that can calculate the degree of spatial similarity using map scale change as the sole independent variable, and vice versa. This formula can be used to automate algorithms for point feature generalization and to determine when to terminate them during the generalization.展开更多
Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. ...Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends (+0.11℃decade) reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming (+0.7℃/decade) trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007-2008 using snowmelt runoff model (SRM) based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamfiow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5%-40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, waterresource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.展开更多
Based on the field destructive test of six rock-socketed piles with shallow overburden,three prediction models are used to quantitatively analyze and predict the intact load−displacement curve.The predicted values of ...Based on the field destructive test of six rock-socketed piles with shallow overburden,three prediction models are used to quantitatively analyze and predict the intact load−displacement curve.The predicted values of ultimate uplift capacity were further determined by four methods(displacement controlling method(DCM),reduction coefficient method(RCM),maximum curvature method(MCM),and critical stiffness method(CSM))and compared with the measured value.Through the analysis of the relationship between the change rate of pullout stiffness and displacement,a method used to determine the ultimate uplift capacity via non-intact load−displacement curve was proposed.The results show that the predicted value determined by DCM is more conservative,while the predicted value determined by MCM is larger than the measured value.This suggests that RCM and CSM in engineering applications can be preferentially applied.Moreover,the development law of the change rate of pullout stiffness with displacement agrees well with the attenuation form of power function.The theoretical predicted results of ultimate uplift capacity based on the change rate of pullout stiffness will not be affected by the integrity of the curve.The method is simple and applicable for the piles that are not loaded to failure state,and thus provides new insights into ultimate uplift capacity determination of test piles.展开更多
The upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River, a representative ecologically sensitive area, has experienced great climate change and rapid agricultural and industrial development since 1961. There is therefore an u...The upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River, a representative ecologically sensitive area, has experienced great climate change and rapid agricultural and industrial development since 1961. There is therefore an urgent need to evaluate the impact of climate change and human activities on stream flows to serve better the water resource management in this region. The nonparamet- ric Mann-Kendall test and moving t-test were used to identify trends and change points in stream flow, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data series. A significant upward trend has been found in annual stream flow, with an abrupt change identified in 1985 at the Taonan station which is the station that controls the entire study area. The stream flow data was divided into a baseline period and a period of change. Both Fu and Zhang's functions were employed to evaluate the impacts of variation in climate and human activities on mean annual stream flow, based on precipitation and potential evaporation. Analysis of the increase in mean annual stream flow between the baseline and the period of change indicated that climate change accounted for about 45% of the total increase and human activities were responsible for about 55%.展开更多
To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based...To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number(SCS-CN) method. Parameters of the model were selected and determined according to the comprehensive analysis of model evaluation indexes. The first simulation of forest reconstruction scenario,namely a coniferous forest covering 59.35km^2 is replaced by a broad-leaved forest showed no significant impact on the flood reduction in the URTR. The second simulation was added with 61.75km^2 bamboo forest replaced by broad-leaved forest,the reduction of flood peak discharge and flood volume could be improved significantly. Specifically,flood peak discharge of 10-year return period event was reduced to 7-year event,and the reduction rate of small flood was 21%-28%. Moreover,the flood volume was reduced by 9%-14% and 18%-35% for moderate floods and small floods,respectively. The resultssuggest that the bamboo forest reconstruction is an effective control solution for small to moderate flood in the URTR,the effect of forest conversion on flood volume is increasingly reduced as the rainfall amount increases to more extreme magnitude. Using a hydrological model with scenarios analysis is an effective simulation approach in investigating the relationship between forest type change and flood control. This method would provide reliable support for flood control and disaster mitigation in mountainous cities.展开更多
The fusion temperature as a function of pressure for carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, bromoform and silicon tetrachloride at pressures up to 3500MPa has been determined. The experimental data were fitted by the equat...The fusion temperature as a function of pressure for carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, bromoform and silicon tetrachloride at pressures up to 3500MPa has been determined. The experimental data were fitted by the equation Tfus=T0(1 + Δp/a1)^a2 exp(-a3Δp) and the changes of the maolar enthalpy and molar internal energy on fusion were calculated using the parameters of the fitted equation. Comparisons with the data from the literature show that the experimental data, parameters of fitted equations, changes of the molar enthalpy and molar internal energy are reliable.展开更多
After introducing the theories parabola (FDP), half-wave-length length, offset and the maximum of acceleration (LCA), the SI curve, and geometric features of four familiar transition curves (cubic parabola (CP)...After introducing the theories parabola (FDP), half-wave-length length, offset and the maximum of acceleration (LCA), the SI curve, and geometric features of four familiar transition curves (cubic parabola (CP), fifth degree sinusoidal (HS) and sinusoidal (SI)) , these curves are compared under identical conditions of the first derivative of curvature. In terms of the roll acceleration (RA) and the lateral change of in theory, is superior to other transition curves.展开更多
Climate change is the most important factor to increase in short-duration high-intensity rainfall and consequent flooding.Intensity-Duration-Frequency(IDF)curves are commonly used tools in Stormwater design,so a metho...Climate change is the most important factor to increase in short-duration high-intensity rainfall and consequent flooding.Intensity-Duration-Frequency(IDF)curves are commonly used tools in Stormwater design,so a method to derive future IDF curves including climate change effect could be necessary for the mainstreaming climate change information into storm water planning.The objective of the present study is to define a mechanism to reflect the effect of climate change into the projected rainfall IDF relationships.For this,the continuously observed hourly rainfall data from 1969 to 2018 were divided into five subgroups.Then the IDF curve of each subgroup is defined.The rainfall intensity for the next 30 years was then estimated using a linear regression model.The obtained result indicates that for the same duration and for the same return period,the rainfall intensity is likely to increase over time:17%(2019-2028),25%(2029-2038)and 32%(2039-2048).However,the findings presented in this paper will be useful for local authorities and decision makers in terms of improving stormwater design and future flood damage will be avoided.展开更多
The presence of invasive plant species poses a substantial ecological impact,thus comprehensive evaluation of their potential range and risk under the influence of climate change is necessary.This study uses maximum e...The presence of invasive plant species poses a substantial ecological impact,thus comprehensive evaluation of their potential range and risk under the influence of climate change is necessary.This study uses maximum entropy(MaxEnt)modeling to forecast the likelihood of Leucaena leucocephala(Lam.)de Wit invasion in Saudi Arabia under present and future climate change scenarios.Utilizing the MaxEnt modeling,we integrated climatic and soil data to predict habitat suitability for the invasive species.We conducted a detailed analysis of the distribution patterns of the species,using climate variables and ecological factors.We focused on the important influence of temperature seasonality,temperature annual range,and precipitation seasonality.The distribution modeling used robust measures of area under the curve(AUC)and receiver-operator characteristic(ROC)curves,to map the invasion extent,which has a high level of accuracy in identifying appropriate habitats.The complex interaction that influenced the invasion of L.leucocephala was highlighted by the environmental parameters using Jackknife test.Presently,the actual geographic area where L.leucocephala was found in Saudi Arabia was considerably smaller than the theoretical maximum range,suggesting that it had the capacity to expand further.The MaxEnt model exhibited excellent prediction accuracy and produced reliable results based on the data from the ROC curve.Precipitation and temperature were the primary factors influencing the potential distribution of L.leucocephala.Currently,an estimated area of 216,342 km^(2)in Saudi Arabia was at a high probability of invasion by L.leucocephala.We investigated the potential for increased invasion hazards in the future due to climate change scenarios(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)245 and 585).The analysis of key climatic variables,including temperature seasonality and annual range,along with soil properties such as clay composition and nitrogen content,unveiled their substantial influence on the distribution dynamic of L.leucocephala.Our findings indicated a significant expansion of high risk zones.High-risk zones for L.leucocephala invasion in the current climate conditions had notable expansions projected under future climate scenarios,particularly evident in southern Makkah,Al Bahah,Madina,and Asir areas.The results,backed by thorough spatial studies,emphasize the need to reduce the possible ecological impacts of climate change on the spread of L.leucocephala.Moreover,the study provides valuable strategic insights for the management of invasion,highlighting the intricate relationship between climate change,habitat appropriateness,and the risks associated with invasive species.Proactive techniques are suggested to avoid and manage the spread of L.leucocephala,considering its high potential for future spread.This study enhances the overall comprehension of the dynamics of invasive species by combining modeling techniques with ecological knowledge.It also provides valuable information for decision-making to implement efficient conservation and management strategies in response to changing environmental conditions.展开更多
It is never an easy task for China to feed 1.4 billion people with only 7%of the world's arable land.With nearly 30%of the world's nitrogen(N)fertilizer applied,China achieves high crop yields while facing N p...It is never an easy task for China to feed 1.4 billion people with only 7%of the world's arable land.With nearly 30%of the world's nitrogen(N)fertilizer applied,China achieves high crop yields while facing N pollution result-ing from excessive N input.Here,we calculate the farmland N budget on the national and regional scales.The N use efficiency(NUE)in China increased by 28.0%during 2005-2018.This improvement is due to the reduction in fertilization and the improvement of crop management.The fragmented farmland is changing to large-scale farmland with the increase in cultivated land area per rural population and the development of agricultural mech-anization.This opportunity brings more possibilities for precision farmland management,thus further improving NUE.The goal of an NUE of 0.6 may be achieved in the 2040s based on the current development trend.This striking N use shift in China has important implications for other developing countries.展开更多
文摘Objective: To investigate the correlation of fibrinogen level and absorbance change in both PT and APTT clotting curves on BCSXP Analyzer. Methods:A serial of standard fibrinogen and 250 patient plasma samples with different qualities(normal, hemolysis, icterus, and lipemia) were run on BCSXP for assays PT, APTT and Fibrinogen. The absorbance change(DeltaA) from baseline to plateau in clotting curve was retrieved and analyzed on its correlation with the Fibrinogen result. Influence of plasma quality and PT/ APTT result on this correlation was also studied respectively. Results:Both PT-DeltaA and APTT-DeltaA showed good linear regres- sion with fibrinogen level in the sample, with R2 close to 0.90 in both standard and patient samples. Hemolysis(H), itcterus(I) and lipemia(L) of the sample with valid clotting curves were found to have no significant difference in this correlation from normal(N) sample(R2: 0.83H, 0.92I, 0.81L and 0.79N in PT; 0.89H, 0.95l, 0.91L and 0.89N in APTT) in either PT or APTT curve. PT or APTT result also has little impact on this correlation(0.71 in range 7 - 10 sec, 0.56 inl0 - 20 sec, and 0.70 in 20 sec-; R2 in APTT: 0.88 in 20-30 sec, 0.92 in 30-40 sec, and 0.95 in 40 sec-). Conclusion:The absorbance change in either PT or APTT clotting curve correlates well with the fibrinogen level in plasma, which is independent of plasma quality PT or APTT results. The absorbance change can be used as an alternative way to roughly estimate fibrinogen level in either PT or APTT clotting curve when the result of clauss-based fibrinogen measurement is not available.
文摘Observational evidence of unstable behavior for the W UMa type binary system V1073 Cygni is presented in this paper. Around 1939 the period of the binary suddenly decreased by 0 580 seconds and again suddenly decreased by 0 746 seconds around 1981.Obvious variable O’ Connell effect of the light curves in V can be seen. The relation between the changes in the orbital period and variation in the O’ Connell effect and possible reasons for the unstable behavior of V1073 Cyg were discussed.
文摘This paper first introduces procedures leading to the establishment of Late Permian-Middle Triassic sea level change curve of Yangtze platform. Bathymetric curves extracted from curve of habitat types are first transformed to sea level curves stage by stage. Comparison between curves of Yangtze and the world reveals that because the Late Permian marine sequences are lacking in most parts of the world, the Late Permian to Griesbachian curve of Yangtze may serve as an important reference for further revision of the world curve. The Early-Middle Triassic short-term changes of Yangtze are briefly concordant with those of Haq's world curve, whereas their long-term changes are discordant. The latter, however, is representative of the East Asian regions affected by the Indosinian orogeny. Basically the third cycles of Yangtze and the world are only pertly concordant, and even in concordant cases their concrete boundaries are not coincident. This indicater that sea level changes are not strictly synchronous over the world. It seems that the 1st and 2nd cycles (supercycles and megacycles) may be world-wide, but not the 3rd cycles.
基金funded by the Natural Science Foundation Committee,China(41364001,41371435)
文摘The degree of spatial similarity plays an important role in map generalization, yet there has been no quantitative research into it. To fill this gap, this study first defines map scale change and spatial similarity degree/relation in multi-scale map spaces and then proposes a model for calculating the degree of spatial similarity between a point cloud at one scale and its gener- alized counterpart at another scale. After validation, the new model features 16 points with map scale change as the x coordinate and the degree of spatial similarity as the y coordinate. Finally, using an application for curve fitting, the model achieves an empirical formula that can calculate the degree of spatial similarity using map scale change as the sole independent variable, and vice versa. This formula can be used to automate algorithms for point feature generalization and to determine when to terminate them during the generalization.
文摘Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends (+0.11℃decade) reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming (+0.7℃/decade) trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007-2008 using snowmelt runoff model (SRM) based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamfiow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5%-40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, waterresource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.
基金Project(2016YFC0802203)supported by the National Key R&D Program of ChinaProject(2013G001-A-2)supported by the Science and Technology Research and Development Program of China Railway CorporationProject(SKLGDUEK2011)supported by the State Key Laboratory for GeoMechanics and Deep Underground Engineering,China University of Mining&Technology。
文摘Based on the field destructive test of six rock-socketed piles with shallow overburden,three prediction models are used to quantitatively analyze and predict the intact load−displacement curve.The predicted values of ultimate uplift capacity were further determined by four methods(displacement controlling method(DCM),reduction coefficient method(RCM),maximum curvature method(MCM),and critical stiffness method(CSM))and compared with the measured value.Through the analysis of the relationship between the change rate of pullout stiffness and displacement,a method used to determine the ultimate uplift capacity via non-intact load−displacement curve was proposed.The results show that the predicted value determined by DCM is more conservative,while the predicted value determined by MCM is larger than the measured value.This suggests that RCM and CSM in engineering applications can be preferentially applied.Moreover,the development law of the change rate of pullout stiffness with displacement agrees well with the attenuation form of power function.The theoretical predicted results of ultimate uplift capacity based on the change rate of pullout stiffness will not be affected by the integrity of the curve.The method is simple and applicable for the piles that are not loaded to failure state,and thus provides new insights into ultimate uplift capacity determination of test piles.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China titled Study on Mechanism and Quantitative Methods of Ecological Water Requirements in Typical Watersheds of Northeastern China (Grant No. 40571029)project (KZCX2-YW-Q06-1),Program of Knowledge Innovation,Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘The upper and middle reaches of the Taoer River, a representative ecologically sensitive area, has experienced great climate change and rapid agricultural and industrial development since 1961. There is therefore an urgent need to evaluate the impact of climate change and human activities on stream flows to serve better the water resource management in this region. The nonparamet- ric Mann-Kendall test and moving t-test were used to identify trends and change points in stream flow, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data series. A significant upward trend has been found in annual stream flow, with an abrupt change identified in 1985 at the Taonan station which is the station that controls the entire study area. The stream flow data was divided into a baseline period and a period of change. Both Fu and Zhang's functions were employed to evaluate the impacts of variation in climate and human activities on mean annual stream flow, based on precipitation and potential evaporation. Analysis of the increase in mean annual stream flow between the baseline and the period of change indicated that climate change accounted for about 45% of the total increase and human activities were responsible for about 55%.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No.51278239)
文摘To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number(SCS-CN) method. Parameters of the model were selected and determined according to the comprehensive analysis of model evaluation indexes. The first simulation of forest reconstruction scenario,namely a coniferous forest covering 59.35km^2 is replaced by a broad-leaved forest showed no significant impact on the flood reduction in the URTR. The second simulation was added with 61.75km^2 bamboo forest replaced by broad-leaved forest,the reduction of flood peak discharge and flood volume could be improved significantly. Specifically,flood peak discharge of 10-year return period event was reduced to 7-year event,and the reduction rate of small flood was 21%-28%. Moreover,the flood volume was reduced by 9%-14% and 18%-35% for moderate floods and small floods,respectively. The resultssuggest that the bamboo forest reconstruction is an effective control solution for small to moderate flood in the URTR,the effect of forest conversion on flood volume is increasingly reduced as the rainfall amount increases to more extreme magnitude. Using a hydrological model with scenarios analysis is an effective simulation approach in investigating the relationship between forest type change and flood control. This method would provide reliable support for flood control and disaster mitigation in mountainous cities.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No20476071)
文摘The fusion temperature as a function of pressure for carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, bromoform and silicon tetrachloride at pressures up to 3500MPa has been determined. The experimental data were fitted by the equation Tfus=T0(1 + Δp/a1)^a2 exp(-a3Δp) and the changes of the maolar enthalpy and molar internal energy on fusion were calculated using the parameters of the fitted equation. Comparisons with the data from the literature show that the experimental data, parameters of fitted equations, changes of the molar enthalpy and molar internal energy are reliable.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50878134)the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province(No.E2006000394)the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Education Department(No.2006142)
文摘After introducing the theories parabola (FDP), half-wave-length length, offset and the maximum of acceleration (LCA), the SI curve, and geometric features of four familiar transition curves (cubic parabola (CP), fifth degree sinusoidal (HS) and sinusoidal (SI)) , these curves are compared under identical conditions of the first derivative of curvature. In terms of the roll acceleration (RA) and the lateral change of in theory, is superior to other transition curves.
文摘Climate change is the most important factor to increase in short-duration high-intensity rainfall and consequent flooding.Intensity-Duration-Frequency(IDF)curves are commonly used tools in Stormwater design,so a method to derive future IDF curves including climate change effect could be necessary for the mainstreaming climate change information into storm water planning.The objective of the present study is to define a mechanism to reflect the effect of climate change into the projected rainfall IDF relationships.For this,the continuously observed hourly rainfall data from 1969 to 2018 were divided into five subgroups.Then the IDF curve of each subgroup is defined.The rainfall intensity for the next 30 years was then estimated using a linear regression model.The obtained result indicates that for the same duration and for the same return period,the rainfall intensity is likely to increase over time:17%(2019-2028),25%(2029-2038)and 32%(2039-2048).However,the findings presented in this paper will be useful for local authorities and decision makers in terms of improving stormwater design and future flood damage will be avoided.
基金the Researchers Supporting Project(RSP2024R347),King Saud University,Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.
文摘The presence of invasive plant species poses a substantial ecological impact,thus comprehensive evaluation of their potential range and risk under the influence of climate change is necessary.This study uses maximum entropy(MaxEnt)modeling to forecast the likelihood of Leucaena leucocephala(Lam.)de Wit invasion in Saudi Arabia under present and future climate change scenarios.Utilizing the MaxEnt modeling,we integrated climatic and soil data to predict habitat suitability for the invasive species.We conducted a detailed analysis of the distribution patterns of the species,using climate variables and ecological factors.We focused on the important influence of temperature seasonality,temperature annual range,and precipitation seasonality.The distribution modeling used robust measures of area under the curve(AUC)and receiver-operator characteristic(ROC)curves,to map the invasion extent,which has a high level of accuracy in identifying appropriate habitats.The complex interaction that influenced the invasion of L.leucocephala was highlighted by the environmental parameters using Jackknife test.Presently,the actual geographic area where L.leucocephala was found in Saudi Arabia was considerably smaller than the theoretical maximum range,suggesting that it had the capacity to expand further.The MaxEnt model exhibited excellent prediction accuracy and produced reliable results based on the data from the ROC curve.Precipitation and temperature were the primary factors influencing the potential distribution of L.leucocephala.Currently,an estimated area of 216,342 km^(2)in Saudi Arabia was at a high probability of invasion by L.leucocephala.We investigated the potential for increased invasion hazards in the future due to climate change scenarios(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)245 and 585).The analysis of key climatic variables,including temperature seasonality and annual range,along with soil properties such as clay composition and nitrogen content,unveiled their substantial influence on the distribution dynamic of L.leucocephala.Our findings indicated a significant expansion of high risk zones.High-risk zones for L.leucocephala invasion in the current climate conditions had notable expansions projected under future climate scenarios,particularly evident in southern Makkah,Al Bahah,Madina,and Asir areas.The results,backed by thorough spatial studies,emphasize the need to reduce the possible ecological impacts of climate change on the spread of L.leucocephala.Moreover,the study provides valuable strategic insights for the management of invasion,highlighting the intricate relationship between climate change,habitat appropriateness,and the risks associated with invasive species.Proactive techniques are suggested to avoid and manage the spread of L.leucocephala,considering its high potential for future spread.This study enhances the overall comprehension of the dynamics of invasive species by combining modeling techniques with ecological knowledge.It also provides valuable information for decision-making to implement efficient conservation and management strategies in response to changing environmental conditions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China(Grants No.U21A2025 and 41907151)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFD1700700).
文摘It is never an easy task for China to feed 1.4 billion people with only 7%of the world's arable land.With nearly 30%of the world's nitrogen(N)fertilizer applied,China achieves high crop yields while facing N pollution result-ing from excessive N input.Here,we calculate the farmland N budget on the national and regional scales.The N use efficiency(NUE)in China increased by 28.0%during 2005-2018.This improvement is due to the reduction in fertilization and the improvement of crop management.The fragmented farmland is changing to large-scale farmland with the increase in cultivated land area per rural population and the development of agricultural mech-anization.This opportunity brings more possibilities for precision farmland management,thus further improving NUE.The goal of an NUE of 0.6 may be achieved in the 2040s based on the current development trend.This striking N use shift in China has important implications for other developing countries.