Quantitative Analysis of Natural and Human Factors of Oasis Change in the Tail of Shiyang River over the Past 60 Years

The human and natural factors complicit in the driving forces of oasis change have always received considerable interest from the international research community. In this study, we used principal component analysis of natural and socio-economic statistical factors to quantitatively analyze the causal relationships and their contributions to the observed periodic expansion or shrinkage of the Minqin Oasis over almost 60 years. Our results show that human factors were the dominant factors governing expansion or shrinkage, with average contributions of 69.38% and 76.16%, respectively. Moreover, policy decisions have been the pivotal human factors. Under the influence of various policies, we have found that water resource utilization, land reclamation, population explosion, ecological protection and economic development have each played leading roles in different periods. This study provides a scientific basis for modelling the dynamics of an oasis for sustainable management.

Assessing the Influence of Climate Extremes on Ecosystems and Human Health in Southwestern Amazon Supported by the PULSE-Brazil Platform

The complexity of multi-dimensional climate, environmental and human health information complicates bringing together scientists, civil society, and decision makers to provide adequate mitigation and adaptation options for the consequences of global environmental change. To provide an effective pathway to conciliate (integrate) these datasets, we present PULSE-Brazil as the Platform for Understanding Long-term Sustainability of Ecosystems and human health. The overarching aim of this paper is to focus on two study cases in the Brazilian state of Acre, 1) analyzing recent socio-environmental disasters such as the impacts of droughts and consequent increases in fire detections on the incidence of respiratory diseases, and 2) evaluating the impacts of temperature increases in combination with rainfall seasonality upon the incidence of Dengue fever. Based on data available in PULSE-Brazil platform, we also aim to provide insights on the consequences of future climate variability on ecosystems and human health. Finally, we provide a discussion on the collaborative process between scientists and policymakers that defined the PULSE-Brazil platform specifications and datasets and propose a conceptual pathway for promoting the interaction between science and policy during the process of producing a tool that allows the understating of climate-relate processes. Our results clearly demonstrated that ecosystems are under increased fire risk in the future that will, in turn, affect the health of human populations. Moreover, humans are also exposed to critical Dengue fever outbreaks with the projected increase in minimum temperatures. Therefore, minimizing the impacts of these potentially ascending socio-environmental problems is the first step for adapting to a changing climate in the Amazon region. We expect that PULSE-Brazil will serve not only as a technical tool for supporting governance, management, mitigation and long-term adaptation plans for climate impacts and natural disasters, but also will take advantage of its graphical capabilities to be an instructive vehicle that facilitates information flow for societal governance.

Impact of environmental change on runoff in a transitional basin:Tao River Basin from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau,China

Quantification of the impacts of environmental changes on runoff in the transitional area from the Tibetan Plateau to the Loess Plateau is of critical importance for regional water resources management.Trends and abrupt change points of the hydro-climatic variables in the Tao River Basin were investigated during 1956-2015.It also quantitatively separates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff change in the Tao River by using RCC-WBM model.Results indicate that temperature presented a significant rising trend(0.2℃per decade)while precipitation exhibited an insignificant decreasing trend(3.8 mm per decade)during 1956-2015.Recorded runoff in the Tao River decreased significantly with a magnitude of-13.7 mm per decade and abrupt changes in 1968 and 1986 were identified.Relative to the baseline period(1956-1968),runoff in the two anthropogenic disturbed periods of 1969-1986 and 1987-2015 decreased by 27.8 mm and 76.5 mm,respectively,which can be attributed to human activities(accounting for 69%)and climate change(accounting for 31%).Human activities are the principal drivers of runoff reduction in the Tao River Basin.However,the absolute influences on runoff reductions by the both drivers tend to increase,from 7.7 mm in 1969-1986 to 24.4 mm in 1987-2015 by climate change and from 20.2 mm to 52.2 mm by human activities.

A cultivated area forecasting approach in artificial oases under climate change and human activities

The cultivated area in artificial oases is deeply influenced by global climate change and human activities.Thus,forecasting cultivated area in artificial oases under climate change and human activities is of great significance.In this study,an approach named GD-HM-PSWROAM,consisting of general circulation model downscaling(GD),hydrological model(HM),and planting structure and water resource optimal allocation model(PSWROAM),was developed and applied in the irrigation district of the Manas River Basin in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China to forecast the cultivated area tendency.Furthermore,the catchment export of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model was set to the Kensiwate hydrological station.The results show that the downscaling effects of temperature can be fairly satisfying,while those of precipitation may be not satisfying but acceptable.Simulation capacity of the MIKE11 HD/NAM model on the discharge in the Kensiwate hydrological station can meet the requirements of running the PSWROAM.The accuracy of the PSWROAM indicated that this model can perform well in predicting the change of cultivated area at the decadal scale.The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin under current human activities may be generally decreasing due to the climate change.But the adverse effects of climate change can be weakened or even eliminated through positive human activities.The cultivated area in the Manas River Basin may even be increasing under assumed human activities and future climate scenarios.The effects of human activities in the future can be generally predicted and quantified according to the cultivated area trends under current human activities and the situations in the study area.Overall,it is rational and acceptable to forecast the cultivated area tendency in artificial oases under future climate change and human activities through the GD-HM-PSWROAM approach.

围垦开发下滨海湿地格局演变的自然-人为复合驱动过程

滨海湿地具有重要的生物多样性保护价值及生态功能,围垦开发下经济快速增长的同时滨海湿地生态受损且大面积丧失。探究自然-人为复合影响下格局演变的关键驱动机制,可以为区域的生态保护和高质量发展提供指示。以围垦开发影响剧烈的黄河三角洲为研究区,克服了当前研究中驱动力的时空动态表征以及湿地格局演变的综合驱动时空交互机制研究的不足,研究构建了一套基于土地利用变化轨迹分离自然和人为驱动并表征湿地格局演变的动态驱动过程的方法,为区域尺度有效评估外界干扰对滨海湿地的影响提供了更加全面的支持。结果表明:尽管黄河三角洲滨海湿地格局演变的驱动过程轨迹类型多样,但主要受少数类型影响,以单一围垦开发为主。各驱动过程间存在着不同程度的时空交互,伴随围垦、修复、逆向演替过程的发生和转换,新生湿地的淤积及生态系统演替的自然增长过程被阻断,甚至可能对已修复湿地产生负面影响,区域湿地持续减少;人为驱动过程的影响远大于自然驱动过程,人为、自然及自然-人为复合驱动的湿地格局演变面积占比分别为55.5%、26.1%和18.4%。研究结果指示应严格管控部分生境敏感区的滩涂围垦,未来难以避免的滨海开发活动应由陆向海逐步推进,采用与新生湿地淤长方向一致的“滚动开发”模式,在兼顾经济效益的同时,维护滨海湿地生态系统的完整性和演替的连续性。

未来情景羌塘高原野牦牛栖息地分布及其影响因素

近30年来,羌塘高原野牦牛(Bos mutus)种群数量虽缓慢恢复,但仍为野生有蹄类中仅有的易危物种。由于其对人为活动规避明显且具有极强的攻击性,野牦牛栖息地分布和质量数据仍很匮乏。把野外调查与最大熵(Maxent)、土地利用模拟模型(FLUS)、InVEST三种模型相结合,系统分析羌塘高原野牦牛栖息地分布及其影响因素,并通过未来气候、未来土地覆被和未来食物情景构建2050年不同温室气体排放浓度(RCPs)情景下羌塘高原生境状况,预测栖息地变化状况,以期为青藏高原生物多样性维护提供数据支撑。结果发现:2020年前后野牦牛栖息地总面积为25.1万km^(2),集中分布在那曲市北部,阿里地区分布零散。栖息地以草原和荒漠为主,部分位于冰川区,野牦牛对气候条件反应敏感,偏好生活在暖季降雨量约在200mm,冷季降雨量约10mm,年最低温度-30℃的区域,坡度耐受性高。约92%的野牦牛栖息地位于羌塘国家自然保护区内,仅有南部约1.2万km^(2)栖息地与人类活动交叠明显。2050年前后羌塘高原暖湿化明显,草原面积增加,野牦牛栖息地将向西北部无人区扩张,目前栖息地分布较零散的阿里地区也将出现大面积高质量栖息地,三种RCPs情境下栖息地面积分别为28.2万km^(2)(RCP2.6)、28.4万km^(2)(RCP4.5)和28.0万km^(2)(RCP8.5),新增栖息地以极重要栖息地为主,边界与羌塘自然保护区范围更加吻合,自然保护地体系建设将有力支撑野牦牛的保护。

气交变视域下的肺功能变化探析

“气交变”理论源于运气七篇,是从天人整体观中探讨人体生理病理的论述。肺与天气相通应,为人体中与外界联系最紧密的脏腑,故从气交变探讨肺功能生理病理变化具有重要意义。从平气、变异之纪不同岁运,结合胜气、复气和郁发之气的作用进行论述,或凉燥早布,或火气燔烁,或凉热气交,或金德延至,均可导致肺相应病变。从气交变视角出发,论述五运格局中肺的生理病理变化,以期充实天人关系中的肺功能变化内涵。

基于时空医学探析“六经欲解时”

梳理历代医家对“六经欲解时”的认识及现代临床研究,对其进行论述。提出以光变时空理论为基础,从时空医学角度剖析“六经欲解时”相关条文背后更加深层的含义;总结了光变时空理论渗透下日周期、月周期、年周期的应用,强调了多维度考虑问题,同时注重天人相应,才能更好地理解张仲景确定六经欲解时辰的独特见解,为临床治疗提供思路。

人机协同的多模态遥感变化检测方法

自然资源领域是技术密集型领域,面向新时代、新任务、新要求,迫切需要应用高新技术构建调查监测技术体系,支撑服务自然资源调查、监测、评价、规划等工作。为了向国土空间开发利用和国土空间治理提供高质量的数据供给,立足人工智能技术发展现状,以卫片执法遥感监测、全国地类变化遥感监测等国家重大战略需求为牵引,针对传统变化检测方法人工劳动繁重和经典变化检测方法工序复杂的固有问题,本文提出了一种网格化人机协同生产方法。通过将遥感影像待检测区域进行北斗网格剖分,构建最小监测单元,规范监测作业模式;创新了一种多模态变化检测技术,以集群处理技术为计算中枢,将多种人工智能技术优势进行融合互补;研究了分布式遥感变化推理引擎,突破机器动态变化感知能力,使机器可以快人一步,动态检测操作视图影像变化,实现人与机器的同步变化感知;探索了人机协同信息化监测作业体系,基于北斗网格位置码建立监测任务调度管理看板,使监测任务进度管理精细可控,实现了作业效率30%和作业质量20%的提升。

中国古代哲学的“成人”之道

“成人”之道是中国古代哲学的价值取向,可分为五个环节:心性基础、主体力量、修养工夫、处世方略、理想人格。心性基础、理想人格分别处于起讫位置,主体力量、修养工夫、处世方略是功能依次展开的中间环节。道、儒两家的“君子”人格在中国古代社会影响广泛。由于中国古代哲学的谱系较多,“成人”之道可从道、儒、释三家哲学的共同点上来考察。今天,我们应立足于已体现为我们的时代精神的民族精神,去反思中国古代哲学的“成人”之道,从中汲取精神文明发展的中国古代哲学动力。

Assessing the vulnerability of changing coasts,Hainan Island,China

Knowledge of coastline changes and vulnerability is of great importance to local government departments that are responsible for the management and development of coastal zones.To study the nature of change and vulnerability along the coasts of the Hainan Island,we collected a large number of sediment samples through the last few years,and reconstructed the changes of the coastline by combining the data of sediment grain-size analysis and the nautical charts/TM RS imaginary.Contrary to being almost free from erosion（as expected from the findings that the coastlines are in a relatively stable state）,four major cities in Hainan（i.e.,Haikou,Wenchang,Sanya and Changjiang） turned out to be suffered from a moderate coastal vulnerability primarily because of the large populations that impose considerable pressure on the coastlines.Thus,the assessment methodology utilized in this study,including both anthropogenic and natural factors,serves as a useful tool to obtain a comprehensive understanding of coastline vulnerability for local government,in terms of coastal management and adaptation.

2001—2019年中国自然保护区生态环境质量时空变化特征及其驱动力

自然保护区对维护生物多样性,改善生态环境质量具有重要作用。然而,我国自然保护区生态环境质量变化及其对自然因素与人类活动的响应规律还不清晰,理解这些规律对我国的生态文明建设以及生物多样性的保护具有重要意义。基于2001—2019年中国历史高分辨率生态环境质量数据CHEQ数据集以及自然因素,利用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验以及多元回归残差分析等方法,探究了2001—2019年中国自然保护区的生态环境质量时空变化特征及其对自然因素与人类活动驱动因素的响应。结果表明:(1)我国自然保护区的CHEQ指数呈现多阶段波动变化,总体呈小幅度下降趋势,平均趋势率为-0.54×10^(-3)/a;在空间上,中国自然保护区CHEQ变化趋势值呈“南高北低,东高西低”的分布格局;(2)自然因素与人类活动的共同作用是我国自然保护区生态环境质量恶化的主要原因,且恶化区域主要分布在自然保护区的实验区和缓冲区。其中自然因素对我国自然保护区生态环境质量变化的影响在-3×10^(-3)/a—0/a之间,人类活动的影响在-1×10^(-3)/a—2×10^(-3)/a之间;(3)自然因素对我国自然保护区贡献率多在75%以上,人类活动对我自然保护区贡献率多在45%以下。在所选的自然因素里,降水因子对我国自然保护区的生态环境质量空间分布影响最大,地表径流量因子的影响最小。研究在弥补了现有研究不足的同时,有望未来为可持续发展中生态环境与经济社会协同发展研判提供科学的定量支撑,并为制定相应的政策提供科学依据。

儒家养生心法——以孟子心学为中心

从个体生命养护的角度看,孟子的学说可以视为一种养生哲学,其宗旨是“事天俟命”,即养生以事天和修身以俟死。由此,养生获得了终极信仰的意义。就此而论,孟子的“心学”就是一套养生心法。第一,养生就是“养体”,但不仅是肉体的“养身”,而且是养护作为身心统一体的生命体。进一步说,养体的根本不是“养小体”,而是“养大体”,即“养心”。第二,养心包括情感能力、意志能力和理性能力的培养。养心的要领在于“寡欲”,即“有所不为”,亦即排除“不义”的意欲,而专注于“可欲”的意欲。第三,养心的本质是“养性”,即养护自己的天赋人性。养性的步骤是“尽心”以“知性”,进而“知性”以“知天”。“尽心”包括尽情、尽意和尽思,即充分发挥情感能力、意志能力和理性能力。“知性”则是天赋人性的自我反思,旨在“知天”。“知天”包括对内在超验之天和外在超凡之天的认知,这正是终极信仰的养生宗旨的体现。第四,养性的途径是“养气”,即培养浩然正气。养气的根本方法是“以直养气”,即“集义生气”,亦即通过培养正义感来养护生命力。

Driving Force Analysis of Land Cover Change in Ulan Buh Desert Based on Markov Chain

The Ulan Buh Desert has a fragile natural environment, which is in the western part of Inner Mongolia arid climate zone and the farming and animal husbandry ecotone. In order to explore the driving force mechanism of the Land Cover Change, the paper constructed the natural-human driving force model by the Markov Chain based on Landsat MSS 1973, 1977 remote sensing image data, analyzed the naturalhuman driving force contribution rate to the Land Cover Change in Ulan Buh Desert. The results showed that in 1989-2013 the main driving force of the Ulan Buh Desert Land Cover Change is the natural factors, average contribution rate is 89.46%, then is the human driving force, the rate is 10.54%. The natural-human driving force contribution rate for every land cover type is different, in natural part, the minimum rate is saline-alkali land for 45.20%, while the maximum is sandy land(90.63%). The human driving force rate of forest land, grassland and water was negative, it shows that human factors slows down or hinder the growth of this kind of land cover. Because of the humanistic attribute, the natural effect of the cultivated land and construction land was abandoned, the rates of human driving are significantly different: the change of human driving force is 24.94%, while the change of construction land is 62.9%.

《中庸》天命性情的流转与诗化哲学

《中庸》为人设置了一个崇高而富有诗意的来源——“天命之谓性”,所以,他是天民,拥有天爵,具有赤子之心,率直之性,他志在圣贤,树立了圣洁的信仰。其“中”与“庸”就是“忠”与“恕”的展开,《中庸》从方方面面围绕着“中立而不倚”“和而不流”展开了人性之美的讨论。鸢飞鱼跃,溥博源泉。其合外内之道而成人成己,“小德川流,大德敦化”之万物并育而不相害的人生理想,其道并行而不相悖,“肫肫其仁,渊渊其渊,浩浩其天”的博大胸怀,其上天之载,知微之显,无声无臭而化成天下的人伦理想,都是从“诚”的灵明之中开出。于是,“维天之命,於穆不已”,“不显惟德,百辟其刑之”,最后推向了天道人道混融、天地万物一体的天人理想、社会理想和政治理想。它是一首浪漫的诗,更是一首优美的歌,虽然来自上古的苍茫,却至今仍有巨大的思想感召力。

基于GEE的大青山国家级自然保护区NDVI变化及影响因素分析

区域植被动态变化研究是国家级自然保护区生态环境效益评估的重要手段之一。基于谷歌地球引擎(Google Earth Engine,GEE)云平台,使用Landsat遥感影像提取1995—2020年内蒙古大青山国家级自然保护区逐年植被生长季归一化植被指数(Normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)数据集,采用皮尔逊相关性、残差分析和Lindeman-Merenda-Gold(LMG)模型等方法对该保护区设立前后的NDVI时空变化特征及其影响因子进行了分析。结果表明:(1)1995—2008年NDVI呈下降趋势的区域面积占比为69.04%,而在2008—2020年NDVI呈上升趋势的区域占比高达94.98%,研究区成为国家级自然保护区以后植被明显好转。(2)1995—2008年负向人类活动与气候暖干化趋势导致实验区植被NDVI的减少,其中气候暖干化趋势是主导因素。(3)降水量的增加和正向人类活动驱动了2008—2020年实验区植被NDVI的增加。其中,以生态环境保护工程为代表的正向人类活动是该时间段植被恢复的主要原因。研究结果可为大青山国家级自然保护区环境治理与生态工程建设提供科学依据。

论《礼记》因性成教的政治哲学特质

《礼记》对人性“致德”的概括,包含教以成德、以教为政的双重意蕴,礼乐教化既是成德之途也是为政之道,其思想基础是《大学》《中庸》《乐记》中对人性“明明德”“致中和”“德者得也”的积极期待。人性致德是教化的前提,成就人性秉于天道的内在之德并外化为德性秩序,是礼乐教化和为政的目的。在对人性的积极期待基础上,《礼记》“教化的政治”思想凸显出因性成教、以教为政的理论特质。

基于GEE云平台的黄土高原生态修复区植被变化与归因

植被为地球生态系统主要构成之一,也是人类社会经济活动的重要资源,监测植被动态变化有利于区域的环境保护及生态环境建设,基于谷歌云平台GEE,集成了Sen+MK趋势分析、MK突变分析、偏相关分析、多元回归残差以及相对贡献率分析等多种统计分析方法,构建了一套自动化植被恢复综合分析体系,可用于植被变化趋势检测及归因分析。在此基础上,区分人工修复和自然恢复对植被变化的影响,以陕西省黄土高原生态修复工程实施区域之一——铜川市耀州区为例,开展生态修复区与自然恢复区植被变化趋势及归因分析。分析结果表明:耀州区1990—2020年土地覆盖格局整体呈现自东南向西北耕地逐渐减少、林地草地逐渐增加的分布特征。植被覆盖变化特征呈现以速率0.55%/a波动上升的趋势,上升突变点为2007年。气候变化和人类活动对耀州区植被变化的相对贡献率具有一定的异质性,主要受到人类活动的正向驱动,相对贡献率为79.10%,气候变化相对贡献率为15.22%。在植被改善区域,应归因于以人类活动主导的生态修复工程,生态修复工程实施治理效果较好;在植被退化区域,主要为气候变化和人类活动的共同影响。

1990-2020年淮河生态经济带耕地资源分布变化特征与驱动机制

探索淮河生态经济带耕地资源分布变化特征,可为保护耕地、保障国家粮食安全提供规划和决策依据。基于1990—2020年遥感影像数据,利用空间探索、统计分析等方法,揭示该区域耕地资源在过去30年的时空分布变化及其驱动机制,并进一步对2030年土地利用进行情景预测。结果表明:1)淮河生态经济带土地利用结构以耕地为主,平均占比为68.70%;近30年来研究区耕地面积剧烈缩减8.63×10^(5) hm^(2),年均减少2.88×10^(4) hm^(2),其中旱地减少占耕地总减少量的81.69%;耕地的流失主要在于建设用地的侵占。2)耕地资源具有明显的集聚特征,以淮河为分界线集聚分布,呈现“东南水田、西北旱地”的典型分布特征。3)耕地资源分布变化的主导驱动因子包括农业机械化水平、粮食产量、人口等社会驱动力;生态驱动力各要素对耕地资源变化的驱动力则相对较为稳定。4)自然发展情景下,2030年耕地面积持续减少110011 hm^(2),在积极的耕地保护情景下,耕地面积将显著增加529309 hm^(2);采取耕地保护情景,鲁中南低山丘陵区以及桐柏—伏牛山通过开垦部分疏林地和低覆盖草地将其整治为耕地,东部沿海可将沿海水域合理建设为建设用地,中部区域可通过减少建设用地的碎片化,较大程度上使耕地资源的连片化,从而在一定程度上提高耕地的利用效率。研究对于优化淮河生态经济带耕地资源结构以及空间优化配置具有重要意义。

A novel framework for analyzing the multiple interactions between humans and nature

Understanding the interactions between humans and nature in the Anthropocene is central to the quest for both human wellbeing and global sustainability.However,the time-space compression,long range interactions,and reconstruction of socio-economic structures at the global scale all pose great challenges to the traditional analytical frameworks of human-nature systems.In this paper,we extend the connotation of coupled human and natural systems(CHANS)and their four dimensions—space,time,appearance,and organization,and propose a novel framework:“Coupled Human and Natural Cube”(CHNC)to explain the coupling mechanism between humans and the natural environment.Our proposition is inspired by theories based on the human-earth areal system,telecoupling framework,planetary urbanization,and perspectives from complexity science.We systematically introduce the concept,connotation,evolution rules,and analytical dimensions of the CHNC.Notably there exist various“coupling lines”in the CHNC,connecting different systems and elements at multiple scales and forming a large,nested,interconnected,organic system.The rotation of the CHNC represents spatiotemporal nonlinear fluctuations in CHANS in different regions.As a system continually exchanges energy with the environment,a critical phase transition occurs when fluctuations reach a certain threshold,leading to emergent behavior of the system.The CHNC has four dimensions—pericoupling and telecoupling,syncoupling and lagcoupling,apparent coupling and hidden coupling,and intra-organization coupling and inter-organizational coupling.We mainly focus on the theoretical connotation,research methods,and typical cases of telecoupling,lagcoupling,hidden coupling,and inter-organizational coupling,and put forward a human-nature coupling matrix to integrate multiple dimensions.In summary,the CHNC provides a more comprehensive and systematic research paradigm for understanding the evolution and coupling mechanism of the human-nature system,which expands the analytical dimension of CHANS.The CHNC also provides a theoretical support for formulating regional,sustainable development policies for human wellbeing.