Impact of Economic Development Model on the Fitting Effect of the Mathematical Model of Changes in Cultivated Land Resources

The mathematical model is often used for fitting the trend of changes in cultivated land resources in the land use planning,but the fitting effect is different in different study areas. In this paper,we take two geographically adjacent cities with great differences in the economic development model,Xinghua City and Jingjiang City,as the research object. Using logarithmic model( M1),Kuznets model( M2),logistic model( M3) and multivariate linear model( M4),we fit the process of changes in cultivated land resources during the period 1980- 2009,and compare the differences in the fitting effect between different models. In terms of the model fitting effect in Xinghua City,it is in the order of M3 > M4 > M1 > M2,which is related to the fact that the local areas lay great emphasis on agricultural development,and pay close attention to ensuring the cultivated land area; in terms of the model fitting effect in Jingjiang City,it is in the order of M1 > M3 > M4 > M2,and the deep-seated cause is that its development model is dominated by extended trade expansion,and the level of intensive land use is constantly improved. In addition,we discuss the multi-stage characteristics of changes in cultivated land resources,and propose a solution of using the same model to simulate in various phases. The research results in Jingjiang City show that the coefficient of determination in the first phase( R2=0. 958) and the standard error( SE = 0. 261) are both better than those of the original model( R2= 0. 945,SE = 0. 312); the coefficient of determination in the second phase is slightly low( R2= 0. 851),but the standard error is greatly improved( SE = 0. 137). Compared with the research conclusions of other scholars,it can be believed that this method can better solve the problems that the scatter plot of logistic model presents wave-shape and the scatter plot of Kuznets model presents " M"-shape,in order to improve the applicability of mathematical models.

Scenario-Based Assessment of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Kuwait: Insights for Effective Resource Management

The interdependency among water, food, and energy (WEF) in the GCC countries is strongly and closely interlinked, and is intensifying as demand for resources increases with population growth and changing consumption patterns, and are expected to be further compounded by the impacts of climate change. Therefore, integrated management of the three sectors is crucial to reduce trade-offs and build synergies among them. This paper presents a comprehensive framework to assess the WEF nexus in Kuwait as a representative case for the GCC countries. The framework consists of three main steps: 1) evaluating the influence of socio-economic development and climate change on water, energy, and food resources;2) generating scenario-based projections;and 3) conducting an extensive quantitative nexus analysis. The WEF interlinkages in Kuwait are modelled quantitatively using the Q-Nexus model, and current critical interdependencies are evaluated. Then, various WEF-Nexus scenarios were conducted for the year 2035 to explore the effects of management interventions in one sector on the other two sectors. The main findings are that per capita municipal water consumption is a major influencer on the WEF-nexus due to the heavy reliance on thermal desalination in municipal water supply in Kuwait, which is attributed to its energy intensity, financial cost, GHGs emissions, and environmental impacts on the marine and air environments. To reduce WEF trade-offs, mitigate risks, and build synergies among the three sectors, it is important to shift the current policy focus on supply-side management approach to the demand-side management and efficiency approaches.

Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

The countries of Central Asia are collectively known as the five "-stans": Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. In recent times, the Central Asian region has been affected by the shrinkage of the Aral Sea, widespread desertification, soil salinization, biodiversity loss, frequent sand storms, and many other ecological disasters. This paper is a review article based upon the collection, identification and collation of previous studies of environmental changes and regional developments in Central Asia in the past 30 years. Most recent studies have reached a consensus that the temperature rise in Central Asia is occurring faster than the global average. This warming trend will not only result in a higher evaporation in the basin oases, but also to a significant retreat of glaciers in the mountainous areas. Water is the key to sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid regions in Central Asia. The uneven distribution, over consumption, and pollution of water resources in Central Asia have caused severe water supply problems, which have been affecting regional harmony and development for the past 30 years. The widespread and significant land use changes in the 1990 s could be used to improve our understanding of natural variability and human interaction in the region. There has been a positive trend of trans-border cooperation among the Central Asian countries in recent years. International attention has grown and research projects have been initiated to provide water and ecosystem protection in Central Asia. However, the agreements that have been reached might not be able to deliver practical action in time to prevent severe ecological disasters. Water management should be based on hydrographic borders and ministries should be able to make timely decisions without political intervention. Fully integrated management of water resources, land use and industrial development is essential in Central Asia. The ecological crisis should provide sufficient motivation to reach a consensus on unified water management throughout the region.

Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

In the arid region of northwestern China(ARNC),water resources are the most critical factor restricting socioeconomic development and influencing the stability of the area’s ecological systems.The region’s complex water system and unique hydrological cycle show distinctive characteristics.Moreover,the intensified hydrological cycle and extreme climatic and hydrological events resulting from global warming have led to increased uncertainty around water resources as well as heightened conflict between water supply and water demand.All of these factors are exerting growing pressures on the socioeconomic development and vulnerable ecological environment in the region.This research evaluates the impacts of climate change on water resources,hydrological processes,agricultural system,and desert ecosystems in the ARNC,and addresses some associated risks and challenges specific to this area.The temperature is rising at a rate of 0.31
C per decade during 1961–2017 and hydrological processes are being significantly influenced by changes in glaciers,snow cover,and precipitation form,especially in the rivers recharged primarily by melt water.Ecosystems are also largely influenced by climate change,with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)of natural vegetation exhibited an increasing trend prior to 1998,and then reversed in Xinjiang while the Hexi Corridor of Gansu showed the opposite trends.Furthermore,the desert-oasis transition zone showed a reduction in area due to the warming trend and the recent rapid expansion of irrigated area.Both the warming and intensified drought are threatening agriculture security.The present study could shed light on sustainable development in this region under climate change and provides scientific basis to the construction of the“Silk Road Economic Belt”.

Analysis on the Spatio-Temporal Changes of Sustainable Land Use in Tibet

By constructing evaluation indicator system of sustainable land use of Tibet from three aspects of ecological environment, economic development, resources and social advancement, this article studies the following contents respectively in two dimensions of time and space： the changes of sustainable land use of Tibet in recent 20 years and spatial characteristics of sustainable land use of Tibet in 2002. The following conclusions can be drawn from evaluation results .① With regard to com- prehensive evaluation value of sustainable land use, the trend of Tibet sustainable land use evaluation values from 1983 to 2002 are very close to the comprehensive evaluation values of ecological environment, which is up trend; ② sustainable utilization degree of land use in eastern region of Tibet is much higher than that of western region. ③ the sustainable land use evaluation value of Nyingtri County is the highest, and the counties with relatively higher land sustainable use values include Lhasa, Lhoka, Chamdo. While Nakchu, Ngari, Shigatse counties have the relatively lower evaluation values; ④ By analyzing each evaluation indicator＇s weight on sustainable land use, it can be concluded that the key limiting factors of sustainable Tibet land resource utilization are land desertification, grassland degradation and low economic level.

Characteristics of the Heat Island Effect in Shanghai and Its Possible Mechanism

The characteristics of the urban heat island effect and the climate change in Shanghai and its possible mechanism are analyzed based on monthly meteorological data from 1961 to 1997 at 16 stations in Shanghai and its adjacent areas. The results indicate that Shanghai City has the characteristics of a heat island of air temperature and maximum and minimum air temperature, a cold island of surface soil temperature, a weak rainy island of precipitation, and a turbid island of minimum visibility and aerosols, with centers at or near Longhua station (the urban station of Shanghai). Besides theses, the characteristics of a cloudy island and sunshine duration island are also obvious, but their centers are located in the southern part of the urban area and in the southern suburbs. A linear trend analysis suggests that all of the above urban effects intensified from 1961 to 1997. So far as the heat island effect is concerned, the heat island index (difference of annual temperature between Longhua and Songjiang stations) strengthens (weakens) as the economic development increases (decreases). The authors suggest that the heating increase caused by increasing energy consumption due to economic development is a main factor in controlling the climate change of Shanghai besides natural factors. On the other hand, increasing pollution aerosols contribute to the enhancement of the turbid island and cooling. On the whole, the heating effect caused by increasing energy consumption is stronger than the cooling effect caused by the turbid island and pollution aerosols.

Balancing Carbon Emission Reductions and Social Economic Development for Sustainable Development: Experience from 24 Countries

The impact of human carbon emissions on climate has generated widespread global concern. We selected 24 countries as research objects and analysed the changes in carbon emissions in different countries between the establishment of emission reduction actions in 1990 and 2014. Then, we selected 19 factors representing four categories(economy, population, technology and energy) to explore the key factors that led to changes in carbon dioxide(CO2) emissions in different countries. Emission reduction actions since 1990 did not lead to marked improvements, and only five countries(Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and France) achieved reductions in carbon emissions. The factors that influenced CO2 emissions varied among countries. In most developing countries, reductions in CO2 emissions were caused by reductions in poverty and inherent natural conditions. Moreover, the extent of influence of a given factor on CO2 emissions differed among countries. The global economic crisis may cause similar fluctuations in CO2 emissions in many countries. Adjustments to energy and industrial structures are the main reason for the reduction in carbon emissions, whereas economic growth and urbanization are the two major contributors to the growth of carbon emissions. According to historical carbon emissions data, a green energy revolution must be implemented to address global climate change and ensure the sustainable development of human societies.

Current situation and trend of arable land change in China

How to protect arable land in the process of economic development and urbanization is a critical issue in China. In this paper, an attempt is made to analyze the situation of arable land change in China and it's relationship with population growth, economic development and urbanization. In depth analysis is also made in different regions. Forecasting is conducted to show the trend of arable land change in China based on the results of correlation analysis. Some suggestions are put forward for the policy making of reasonable utilization and protection of arable land in the future.

ANALYSIS ON LAND-USE CHANGE AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DRIVING FACTORS IN H AINAN ISLAND DURING 50YEARS FROM 1950TO 1999

Land-use change is an important part of global change research(IGBP,1990-1992).But the majority of researches focus on the natural dr iving force of land use change.In thi s paper,the authors studied the rela tionship be-tween socio-economic driving facto rs and land-use change with time series in Hainan Island.Based on the stud y for the evolution of administrative system and policies in Hainan Island and the comprehensive analysis on the socia l economy da-ta and changes of social policies,th e socio-economic policies,human activities and land use of Hainan can be divided into three periods with different ch aracters:period from1950to 1978ch aracterized by the planning economi c system,peri-od from 1978to 1988characterized by the transfer of economic system and a doption of open policy,new stage fro m 1988to 1998with high growing speed.On th e other hand the authors describe the character of the periods and land-use change process affected by socio-economic factors.This paper provides an important method for evaluating the development and changes of Hainan social economy dur ing the 50years from 1950to 1999and f orecasting the development of Hainan so-cial economy in future.

Exploration of the dynamic water resource carrying capacity of the Keriya River Basin on the southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert,China

The water resource carrying capacity(WRCC)in river basin changes dynamically under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement.Climate change affects hydrological processes and spatial/temporal distribution of water resources;while economic develo-ment and technological advancement can also affect the balance of water resources systems.Under climate change,economic development,and technological advancement,itis of great significance to explore the dynamic behavior of WRCC in river basins.This will help to alleviate water resources security issues and build a sustainable water resources system.This study was carried out to evaluate the dynamic WRCC using the"climate,economics,and technology-control objective inversion mode",which used total water consumption,water-use efficiency,and restrained total pollutant control in the water functional area as boundary conditions.This study was conducted on the Keriya River Basin,a sub-catchment located in southem margin of the Taklimakan Desert.The WRCC in the Keriya River Basin in 2015 was calculated,and the trends in the short term(2020),middle tem(2030),and long term(2050)were predicted.The results revealed that climate change factors have a positive effect on WRCC in the Keriya River Basin,which leads to an increase in total water resources.Economic and technological development exhibits an overall positive effect,while increasing in water consumption and sewage discharge exhibit a negative effect.

Climate capacity:the measurement for adaptation to climate change

This article proposed the concept of"climate capacity"as a way of measuring human's adaptiveness to climate change.This article also focused on the related concepts like ecological carrying capacity,water resources carrying capacity,land carrying capacity as well as population carrying capacity.The concept of climate capacity was articulated against a background of global climate and environmental change.Essentially,China's efforts to adapt to climate change was a matter of improving climate capacity,which is the ecosystem as well as the frequency,the intensity and the scale of human's social activities that the climatic resources of a particular geographic area were supposed to support.The climate capacity has two components.One is the natural climate capacity,which includes temperature,sunlight,precipitation,extreme climatic events,etc.The other is the derived climate capacity,which includes water resources,land resources,ecological systems,climatic risks,etc.The climate capacity can be developed or be transferred between regions by taking engineering,technology or regime-based adaptive measures.However,these adaptive measures must be implemented under the principle of economic rationalism,ecological integrity,climate protection,and social justice.It is expected that by combining the climate capacity and its threshold value with the assessment of climate change risks,we are able to predict the optimal population carrying capacity and the scale of socioeconomic development,and furthermore,provide policy support for the socioeconomic development strategy and adaptive planning.In the regions with high climate capacity,there is a symbiotic relationship between adaptation and socioeconomic development.But,in the regions with limited climate capacity,irrational development may further damage the environment.Taking the Yangtze River delta,a region with high climate capacity,and a region of Ningxia,a region with limited climate capacity,as illustrative examples,the authors of this article analyzed the policy implications of climate capacity and further made suggestions on the problems of capacitylimited adaptation and development-driven adaptation.This article argued that the concept of climate capacity can not only be used as an analytical instrument of climate change economics,but also it can provide research support for planning regional adaptation and development with climate change impact and risk assessments.

Exploring the nexus between Indian forestry and the Sustainable Development Goals

Forests are considered as a sacred asset in India and have guided the way of living throughout its history.Indian forests not only accommodate the myriad species but also act as a survival support system to the communities that depended on them.The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development proposed by the United Nations(UN)has gained momentum and becomes an integral part of the recent efforts of Indian governance.In this investigation,we examined the potential nexus between Indian forestry system(biodiversity-enriched assets,ecosystem services,constitutional mechanisms,and governances)and Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)through theoretical underpinnings from literature that selected from database like Google Scholar,Indian forest survey reports,and information retrieved from Indian government websites.The significance of this review is that it presents comprehensive information about Indian forestry,biodiversity-rich assets,and sustainable forest management practices.The results show that Indian forestry as a whole is an integral part of the food-energy-water cycle and contributes to all dimensions of sustainable development,i.e.,economic sustainability,social sustainability,and environmental sustainability.The investigation confirms that besides partly contributing to the economy and life support systems to many dependent species,forests also act as boosters in the areas of food security and health.Targets related to the climate action,peace,and partnership goals are well in place through various forestry interventions and environmental commitments by the Government of India.

数字经济赋能经济高质量发展的内在逻辑

作为以数字技术为支撑、信息为要素的新型经济形态,数字经济依托其高效的数据采集、处理、分析能力驱动产业结构升级,数字产业化及产业数字化的发展推动经济结构转型,大力提升社会生产力。聚焦经济高质量发展三大变革,认为数字经济通过动力变革、效率变革及质量变革赋能经济高质量发展,数字经济是促进我国经济转型、产业升级,实现经济高质量发展的重要战略选择。

气候政策协同对区域经济高质量发展影响研究

基于政策协同视角,本文以2007—2020年中国30个省(区、市)为研究对象,构建经济高质量发展评价指标体系,采用熵值法测度区域经济高质量发展水平,并运用双固定效应模型进行实证分析,以探究气候政策对区域经济高质量发展的影响。研究表明:气候政策协同对区域经济高质量发展呈现先抑制后促进的“U”型影响;当气候政策协同水平高于7.9时,对区域经济高质量发展的促进作用开始凸显;气候政策协同水平对中西部地区的经济高质量发展呈现出“U”型影响,而对东部地区作用不显著;后巴黎时代气候政策协同对区域经济高质量发展的影响愈发显著。因此,要加强气候政策顶层设计,实现自上而下纵向协同;要利用政治优势和体制基础,加强政策主体横向协同;要建立跨区域、跨部门协调机制,实现信息资源充分流动,实现应对气候变化与区域经济高质量发展的“双赢”。

The development of China's Yangtze River Economic Belt:how to make it in a green way?

The Yangtze River is one of the largest and longest rivers in Asia.The river originates in the Tibet-Qinghai Plateau(headwater reach),passes through the mountainous provinces of Sichuan,Yunnan and Chongqing(upper reach),flows into the Central Plain(middle reach)and Lower Plain(lower reach),and finally empties into the East China Sea in Shanghai(estuary).The Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB;Fig.1)has a surface area of 2.1

吉林省城镇居民消费结构变动趋势及其影响因素研究

随着中国经济的快速发展和城镇化进程的不断推进,吉林省城镇居民消费水平和消费结构发生了显著的变化。分析和研究吉林省城镇居民消费结构的变动趋势及其影响因素,提出相应的对策建议,以促进消费结构的良性发展,提升居民的生活质量,对推动吉林省经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。

Urbanization,economic development,and environmental changes in transitional economies in the global south:a case of Yangon

Background:Transitional economies in Southeast Asia—a distinct group of developing countries—have experienced rapid urbanization in the past several decades due to the economic transition that fundamentally changed the function of their economies,societies and the environment.Myanmar,one of the least developed transitional economies in Southeast Asia,increased urbanization substantially from 25%in 1990 to 31%in 2019.However,major knowledge gaps exist in understanding the changes in urban land use and land cover and environment and their drivers in its cities.Methods:We studied Yangon,the largest city in Myanmar,for the urbanization,environmental changes,and the underlying driving forces in a radically transitioned economy in the developing world.Based on satellite imagery and historic land use maps,we quantified the expansion of urban built-up land and constructed the land conversion matrix from 1990 through 2020.We also used three air pollutants to illustrate the changes in environmental conditions.We analyzed the coupled dynamics among urbanization,economic development,and environmental changes.Through conducting a workshop with 20 local experts,we further analyzed the influence of human systems and natural systems on Yangon’s urbanization and sustainability.Results:The city of Yangon expanded urban built-up land rapidly from 1990 to 2000,slowed down from 2000 to 2010,but gained momentum again from 2010 to 2020,with most newly added urban built-up land appearing to be converted from farmland and green land in both 1990–2000 and 2010–2020.Furthermore,the air pollutant concen-tration of CO decreased,but that of NO_(2)and PM_(2.5)increased in recent years.A positive correlation exists between population and economic development and the concentration of PM_(2.5)is highly associated with population,the economy,and the number of vehicles.Finally,the expert panel also identified other potential drivers for urbanization,including the extreme climate event of Cyclone Nargis,capital relocation,and globalization.Conclusions:Our research highlights the dramatic expansion of urban land and degradation of urban environment measured by air pollutants and interdependent changes between urbanization,economic development,and environmental changes.

推动经济全球化更加普惠包容的中国视角

经济全球化是社会生产力发展的客观要求和世界历史演进的必然规律。中国提出坚持经济全球化正确方向,推动经济全球化朝着更加开放、包容、普惠、平衡、共赢方向发展,表明了中国捍卫和引领经济全球化的坚定立场。推动经济全球化更加开放,就要促进贸易和投资自由化便利化,积极参与全球治理体系改革,加强全球创新合作,在开放中获取全球化带来的机会和收益,以开放纾发展之困、汇合作之力、聚创新之势、谋共享之福。推动经济全球化更加包容,就要尊重各国自主选择的社会制度和发展道路,兼顾多方合理利益诉求,以公平公正基础上的平等竞争助力全球包容发展。推动经济全球化更加普惠,就要让普惠发展成为世界经济的常态,发挥大国促进经济全球化的重要作用,以正确义利观引领全球普惠发展。推动经济全球化更加平衡,就要缩小不同群体和阶层的收入差距,改变南北国家发展不平衡不公平的格局,以高质量经济发展与高水平生态保护统筹推进全球平衡发展。推动经济全球化更加共赢,就要摒弃冷战思维和零和博弈旧理念,深化和拓展全球伙伴关系,以互利合作新模式实现全球共赢发展。

广西主导农业经济产业发展变化分析与对策建议

为掌握主导农业经济产业发展状况,通过国家统计局官方网站,获取广西甘蔗、柑橘、蚕桑、香蕉产业2011—2021年种植面积和总产量数据,计算不同产业单产量,基于种植面积、产量和单产研究不同产业发展变化情况。统计分析发现,甘蔗、柑橘和蚕桑茧种植面积和产量位居全国榜首,甘蔗种植规模呈下降趋势,甘蔗单产逐年增产,柑橘种植规模呈增长趋势,柑橘单产稳步提高,桑树种植规模呈先增后减趋势,桑蚕茧单产较平稳;香蕉种植面积排名全国第三,产量及单产位列全国第二,种植规模缩减趋势明显,单产逐年提高。虽然广西主导农业经济产业取得较好成效,但仍存在产业发展不平衡、技术落后、缺乏自主品牌、产业链短等突出问题,建议进一步加强政府扶持引导、加强科技创新、加强技术培训、加强企业培育,以促进广西主导农业经济产业可持续发展。

日本气候安全政策及对我国的启示

日本希望通过气候减排参与全球政治事务,并十分重视气候变化带来的安全问题。气候变化增加了日本极端天气,导致日本沿海生态环境恶化和农产品质量下降,使本就资源匮乏的岛国面临更多挑战,影响了日本国土安全。日本积极在亚洲开展气候外交,稳固同地区国家的外交关系,力求在气候战略上保持“美日同盟”,并以气候外交配合美国“印太战略”。然而,日本核污水排海行为严重影响了日本的国际形象。日本通过转变能源安全观念,积极研发推广减排技术,着力以技术优势应对气候变化对其经济安全的影响。鉴于日本经验,我国应在总体国家安全观下统筹气候变化与国家安全的关系,协调推进气候减排政策。