A comparison of model choice strategies for logistic regression

Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/approach:The study is based on Monte Carlo simulations.The methods are compared in terms of three measures of accuracy:specificity and two kinds of sensitivity.A loss function combining sensitivity and specificity is introduced and used for a final comparison.Findings:The choice of method depends on how much the users emphasize sensitivity against specificity.It also depends on the sample size.For a typical logistic regression setting with a moderate sample size and a small to moderate effect size,either BIC,BICc or Lasso seems to be optimal.Research limitations:Numerical simulations cannot cover the whole range of data-generating processes occurring with real-world data.Thus,more simulations are needed.Practical implications:Researchers can refer to these results if they believe that their data-generating process is somewhat similar to some of the scenarios presented in this paper.Alternatively,they could run their own simulations and calculate the loss function.Originality/value:This is a systematic comparison of model choice algorithms and heuristics in context of logistic regression.The distinction between two types of sensitivity and a comparison based on a loss function are methodological novelties.

Editor-in-Chief articles of choice and comments at the year-end of 2023

As the Editor-in-Chief of World Journal of Gastroenterology,every week prior to a new issue’s online publication,I perform a careful review of all encompassed articles,including the title,clinical and/or research importance,originality,novelty,and ratings by the peer reviewers.Based on this review,I select the papers of choice and suggest pertinent changes(e.g.,in the title)to the Company Editors responsible for publication.This process,while time-consuming,is very important for assuring the quality of publications and highlighting important articles that Readers may revisit.

Discrete Choice Analysis of Temporal Factors on Social Network Growth

Social networks like Facebook, X (Twitter), and LinkedIn provide an interaction and communication environment for users to generate and share content, allowing for the observation of social behaviours in the digital world. These networks can be viewed as a collection of nodes and edges, where users and their interactions are represented as nodes and the connections between them as edges. Understanding the factors that contribute to the formation of these edges is important for studying network structure and processes. This knowledge can be applied to various areas such as identifying communities, recommending friends, and targeting online advertisements. Several factors, including node popularity and friends-of-friends relationships, influence edge formation and network growth. This research focuses on the temporal activity of nodes and its impact on edge formation. Specifically, the study examines how the minimum age of friends-of-friends edges and the average age of all edges connected to potential target nodes influence the formation of network edges. Discrete choice analysis is used to analyse the combined effect of these temporal factors and other well-known attributes like node degree (i.e., the number of connections a node has) and network distance between nodes. The findings reveal that temporal properties have a similar impact as network proximity in predicting the creation of links. By incorporating temporal features into the models, the accuracy of link prediction can be further improved.

Factors Influence Hanoians’ Choice of Non-Motorized Transport Mode to Access Bus Stations

Hanoi’s rapid urbanization has led to a surge in private vehicle ownership, particularly motorcycles, amidst inadequate public transportation infrastructure. Despite government efforts, many still prefer motorized transport, citing mobility and safety concerns, exacerbated by insufficient pedestrian infrastructure. This study examines the motivations behind this reliance on motorized vehicles, particularly motorcycles, in Hanoi. Findings reveal safety and convenience as primary factors driving motorized transport use, especially for accessing bus stations. Economic incentives could promote non-motorized travel and public transport adoption. Policy implications highlight the importance of addressing economic factors and improving access infrastructure to manage motorized vehicle reliance and foster sustainable urban mobility in Hanoi.

Consumers’experiences and preferences for plant-based meat food:Evidence from a choice experiment in four cities of China

This paper examined consumers’experiences in and preferences for plant-based meat(PBM)food and their respective correlates,based on data from an online survey of 579 consumers in four major cities in China in early 2021.We first described consumers’experiences in consuming and purchasing PBM food and their correlates,and then analyzed consumer preferences using hypothetical choice experiment.The experiment offered consumers various options to purchase burgers made from PBM or animal-based meat(ABM),combined with different countries of origin(COO),taste labels,and prices.Our data showed that respondents hold overall positive attitudes toward PBM food;85 and 82%of respondents reported experience in eating and purchasing PBM food,respectively.More than half of them ate PBM food because they wanted to try new food(58%),or were interested in healthy food(56%).Income,religion,and dietary restrictions were significantly correlated with consumers’experiences in PBM food consumption.Results from the Random Parameter Logit Model based on the hypothetical choice experiment data showed that 79%of respondents chose PBM burgers and were willing to pay an average of 88 CNY for a PBM burger.We also found that 99.8 and 83%of respondents are willing to buy burgers made in China and those with a taste label,with a willingness to pay(WTP)of 208 and 120 CNY,respectively.The heterogeneity test revealed that females and those with at least a bachelor’s degree,higher income,religious beliefs,and dietary restrictions are more likely to buy PBM burgers than their counterparts.

Chromatic and achromatic differences of melanin-and carotenoid-based plumage coloration in five minivet species(Pericrocotus spp.)under conspecific and predator visual systems

Adaptive mate choice has been accepted as the leading theory to explain the colorful plumage of birds.This theory hypothesizes that conspicuous colors act as signals to advertise the qualities of the owners.However,a dilemma arises in that conspicuous colors may not only attract mates,but also alert predators.The"private channels of communication"hypothesis proposes that some intraspecific signals may not be visible to heterospecific animals because of different visual systems.To better understand the evolution of plumage colors and sexual selection in birds,here we studied the chromatic difference and achromatic differences of melanin-and carotenoid-based plumage coloration in five minivet species(Pericrocotus spp.)under conspecific and predator visual systems.We found that either the chromatic or achromatic difference among male or female minivets’plumage was consistently higher under conspecific vision than under predator vision for all five studied species of minivets.This result indicated that individual differences in plumage colors of minivets were visible to the conspecific receivers and hidden from potential predators as a result of evolution under predation risk and conspecific communication.However,males were under a higher risk of predation because they were more conspicuous than females to the vision of a nocturnal predator.

Choice of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability among Smallholder Farmers in the Maize Based Cropping System in Namutumba District, Uganda

Smallholder farmers in Namutumba district draw on a combination of adaptation strategies to respond to effects of climate variability. However, there is limited scholarly evidence and explanation that has been conducted on the factors that influence the choice of alternative sets of strategies that smallholder farmers use in response to climate variability specific stress and literature that disentangles climatic stressors specific adaptation options. A multi-stage sampling procedure was employed to select the study area and household respondents. The study used cross-sectional research design to collect both quantitative and qualitative data. Household data was collected from 160 respondents with a structured questionnaire supported by key informant interviews. Multinomial logit modeling (MNL) was used to determine the relative influence of selected household socio-demographic factors on the choice of adaptation strategies against the dry spell. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used to create weighted adaptation index for categorizing various similar adaptation strategies. In order to respond to the impact of climate variability stresses, smallholder farmers have adapted growing drought-resistant crops (12.2%), extension of the agricultural frontier into wetlands during the dry spells (37%), whereas use of crop rotation (9.8%) is the most dominant strategies used to manage pest and diseases, similarly soil and water conservation (15.3%) and climate-smart planning basin (11%) are the most dominant adaptation strategies use to manage flood. Empirical results from multinomial logit modeling showed that predictor variables gender, level of education, years of farming, house size, access to credit, and own radio have a significant influence on the choice of adaptation strategies with differences significant level during the dry spell. The study recommends that future policies should focus on strengthening the existing extension training package, strengthening the existing farmer’s groups and cooperatives, encouraging informal social networks in order to boost smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate variability.

Accessibility Measures in Modal Choice Models: A Proof of Concept Applied to Freight Transport

Modal choice models applied to interregional or international freight transportation network models are often based on rather coarse origin-destination matrices, containing annual transported tonnages between (sub)regions, for instance. Generally, only basic (sometimes constructed) independent variables (transportation costs or transit times) are used because other variables such as shipment sizes, service frequencies, etc. are not available. Using origin-destination matrices and an assignment model, it is also possible to compute spatial accessibility measures that can further be used as additional explanatory variables. Indeed, several published studies have identified network accessibility as an important element in the mode-choice decision. This paper also shows that the inclusion of an accessibility measure in the utility functions of a logit model substantially improves the performance of a transportation network model, both in the modal choice and the assignment levels of the classical four-step model. Consequently, the assignment of the estimated modal demands results in more accurate estimated traffic on the networks. The model presented in this paper is to be considered as a proof of concept because its workflow should further be streamlined to make it easily useable by modelers.

A Study of the Self-efficacy of Viola Majors in Chinese Universities Regarding Career Choice

This study examined and analysed the impact of self-efficacy on the career decisions of 52 viola students enrolled in Chinese universities.According to the findings,the level of self-efficacy influences the learning and career decisions of students directly.Higher self-efficacy can positively affect how individuals perceive their past experiences and those of others.Therefore,a high degree of self-efficacy can be advantageous.Self-efficacy is primarily influenced by a person’s prior experiences,alternative experiences,verbal persuasion,and physical and emotional state during work-based learning.Schools may offer courses that foster and improve the development of self-efficacy in order to help viola majors in improving their self-efficacy effectively.

Type 2 Diabetes—Hard to Select a Healthy Choice

Introduction: The use of foods containing high levels of sugar is increasing all the time. This is a risk factor for increased incidence of type 2 diabetes. There are few studies that have investigated the availability of low-sugar müsli products in grocery stores. Purpose: The study aims to identify which types of müsli contain high respectively low levels of sugar, and which brands are involved. Methods: The material consists of both qualitative interviews and observations from five grocery stores: City Gross, Hemköp, Ica Maxi, Stora Coop and Willy’s in Helsingborg, Sweden. The qualitative interviews had a semi-structured character and were recorded. The interviews took approx. 20 minutes and a textual analysis was conducted of the results. Data from observation was analyzed based on brand, nutritional composition and flavors, and also, where low sugar products were placed on store shelves. Results: The grocery stores provided together brands from AXA, Coop, Finax, Frebaco, Garant, ICA, Risenta, Saltå Kvarn och Urtekram, in total 24 müsli products. Of these products, 19 were high in sugar. The observation reveals that müsli products with high sugar content (17 - 29 g per 100 g müsli) are more prominently displayed than those with low sugar content. From the interviews with the store managers, it became clear that it would be valuable to highlight healthy müsli products on the shelves. However, central bureaucracy puts obstacles to such measures. Discussion: The study emphasizes the need for increased visibility of low-sugar products and proposes solutions such as negotiating with responsible person at the head office in Stockholm. Several reviews have shown that if the grocery store raises the prices of unhealthy food, the consumer is willing to purchase healthier müsli and other products. Conclusion: This study shows the need for grocery stores to upgrade healthy müsli products along with advertising to be able to influence customer’s shopping habits. Also, further research is needed how type 2 diabetes is affected by high intakes of food products with high sugar content.

The Connotation and Path Choice of Socialist Core Value System

The socialist core value system(scVs)is a multi-layered systematic logical structure:with Marxism as the backbone which determines the fundamental nature of this value system;the common ideal of socialism with Chinese characteristics as the embodiment of its goals;national spirit and the spirit of the times as its spiritual power;and the concept of honor as its moral foundation.SCVS construction focuss on practice,and its implementation includes the following three aspects;focusing on people's livelitood to increase the attractiveness of sCVs;vigorously developing productivity and expanding the material basis of the guiding functions of SCVS;and establishing an effective mechanism for publicity and education.While practicing SCVs,objective laws need to be followed and public enthusiasm need to be mobilized,path choice for development subjects and objective practice need to be highlighted,and policy system need to be improved gradually in practice,so that a linkage mechanism for all people to participate can be formed.

Influencing Factors and Path Choice of Rebuilding Rural Financial Supervision System

The necessity of rebuilding Chinese rural financial supervision system is expounded. Rebuilding rural financial supervision system is conducive to normalizing rural financial order and forming the benign competitive situation; to clarifying the role played by rural financial organization and providing better financial services for "three agriculture";to forming safe rural financial environment to promote the development of rural economy and national economy. The restricting factors of rebuilding Chinese rural financial supervision system are analyzed. The major reasons are that rural financial legislation is relatively backward and the supervision department lacks the necessary legal basis. The administrative supervision is insufficient, which lead to the mal-position, administrative offside and vacancy of rural financial supervision;rural financial organization mechanism is unreasonable and the internal supervision mechanism is relatively bad;supervision organization of rural financial industry is imperfect and the function is imperfect; public's supervision awareness is weak and social supervision mechanism develops slowly. The paths for rebuilding Chinese rural financial supervision system are put forward including accelerating rural financial legislation to provide perfect legal evidence for rural financial supervision system; clarifying the position on governmental functions and fully displaying the leading role of rural financial supervision; establishing specialized rural financial supervision organization to perfect its supervision functions; vigorously cultivating people's supervision awareness to promote the development of social supervision mechanism.

Transition of International System and China's Strategic Choice

At present,the international situation is at change.The international system undergoes profound transition.Great changes are happening to structure of power pattern,essence of international relations and norms of global governance.Major events of overall and strategic bearings such as the Ukraine Crisis,the Chaos of the Middle East,the proliferation of terrorism and the slowdown in

瑞波西利联合内分泌治疗用于绝经前侵袭性HR+/HER2-晚期乳腺癌患者:随机Ⅱ期RIGHT Choice试验

1文献来源Lu Y-S, Mahidin EIBM, Azim H, et al.Abstract GS1-10:Primary results from the randomized phaseⅡRIGHT Choice trial of premenopausal patients with aggressive HR+/HER2-advanced breast cancer treated with ribociclib+endocrine therapy vs physician’s choice combination chemotherapy[J].Cancer Res,2023,83(5S):GS1-10.

Logit-based exit choice model of evacuation in rooms with internal obstacles and multiple exits

A logit-based discrete choice model is proposed to study the exit choice behaviour of evacuees in rooms with internal obstacles and multiple exits. Several factors influencing the exit choice behaviour, including the information obtained by evacuees, the tendency of following others, the visibility and familiarity of exits and the physical conditions of nearby exits, are considered. Evacuees are allowed to re-select their target exits for minimizing the perceived disutility during evacuation process. Numerical results from applying the model to cellular automata simulation of evacuation are presented and the effects of some model parameters on evacuation time are investigated.

Game theory model of exit selection in pedestrian evacuation considering visual range and choice firmness

Exit choice is one of the most important pedestrian behaviors during evacuation.Distance to the exit is a generally recognized factor influencing expected moving time to the exit.Visual range determines how much information a pedestrian can perceive,thus the number of pedestrians within the visual field can be used to estimate waiting time at the exit.Besides,the choice firmness that reflects the degree to which a pedestrian would persist in his/her previous choice of exit is proposed.By integrating game theory into a cellular automata simulation framework,the pedestrian exit choice mechanism is investigated and explicitly modeled in this paper.A systematic analysis of the key factors influencing pedestrian evacuation is conducted,including visual radius and choice firmness of a pedestrian,initial crowd distribution of the room,exit layout as well as exit width.It is found that low choice firmness level can lead to unnatural pedestrian behavior such as wandering,which is adverse to evacuation.The longer the pedestrian's visual radius,the earlier the pedestrian can determine his/her final selection of the exit.Compared with the scenario where the pedestrians are randomly distributed,pedestrians clustered together in a corner of the room lead to high crowd density and imbalanced use of exits.Furthermore,the exit layout and exit width also have a certain influence on pedestrian evacuation process.The results of this paper may be of benefit to the formulation of behavioral rules in other pedestrian simulation models.

Driving factors and the implications of work choices of rural laborers in ecologically vulnerable areas in North China

Using rural survey data for the year 2009,we provide evidence of work choices of rural laborers in ecologically vulnerable areas in North China,and model these choices as a function of characteristics of individuals,households,and land endowments.The findings reveal large differences between males and females,and between non-farm employment and part-time farming engagement Land scarcity is still an important driving factor in non-farming participation of rural laborers in the study area;and in the current case of land productivity and the total amount of land,there are still surplus rural labor forces in the study area.Diversification of livelihood reduces the pressure on land,thus facilitating ecosystem conservation.So,the paper concludes with the argument that establishing coordination mechanisms among non-farm employment of rural laborers,agricultural production,and restoration of ecosystems are essential for mitigating the conflicts of ecological security,agricultural production,and rural development in mis area.

Choice of operative method for pancreaticojejunostomy and a multivariable study of pancreatic leakage in pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND As one of the major abdominal operations,pancreaticoduodenectomy(PD)involves many organs.The operation is complex,and the scope of the operation is large,which can cause significant trauma in patients.The operation has a high rate of complications.Pancreatic leakage is the main complication after PD.When pancreatic leakage occurs after PD,it can often lead to abdominal bleeding and infection,threatening the lives of patients.One study found that pancreatic leakage was affected by many factors including the choice of pancreaticojejunostomy method which can be well controlled.AIM To investigate the choice of operative methods for pancreaticojejunostomy and to conduct a multivariate study of pancreatic leakage in PD.METHODS A total of 420 patients undergoing PD in our hospital from January 2014 to March 2019 were enrolled and divided into group A(n=198)and group B(n=222)according to the pancreatointestinal anastomosis method adopted during the operation.Duct-to-mucosa pancreatojejunostomy was performed in group A and bundled pancreaticojejunostomy was performed in group B.The operation time,intraoperative blood loss,and pancreatic leakage of the two groups were assessed.The occurrence of pancreatic leakage after the operation in different patients was analyzed.RESULTS The differences in operative time and intraoperative bleeding between groups A and B were not significant(P>0.05).In group A,the time of pancreatojejunostomy was 26.03±4.40 min and pancreatic duct diameter was 3.90±1.10 mm.These measurements were significantly higher than those in group B(P<0.05).The differences in the occurrence of pancreatic leakage,abdominal infection,abdominal hemorrhage and gastric retention between group A and group B were not significant(P>0.05).The rates of pancreatic leakage in patients with preoperative albumin<30 g/L,preoperative jaundice time≥8 wk,and pancreatic duct diameter<3 mm,were 23.33%,33.96%,and 19.01%,respectively.These were significantly higher than those in patients with preoperative albumin≥30 g/L,preoperative jaundice time<8 wk,and pancreatic duct diameter≥3 cm(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative albumin<30 g/L,preoperative jaundice time≥8 wk,and pancreatic duct diameter<3 mm were risk factors for pancreatic leakage after PD(odds ratio=2.038,2.416 and 2.670,P<0.05).CONCLUSION The pancreatointestinal anastomosis method during PD has no significant effect on the occurrence of pancreatic leakage.The main risk factors for pancreatic leakage include preoperative albumin,preoperative jaundice time,and pancreatic duct diameter.

Is it the time to reconsider the choice of valves for cardiac surgery： mechanical or bioprosthetic？

Valvular heart disease is a pathologic process involving one or more of the four valves(aortic,pulmonary,mitral and tricuspid)of the heart typified by stenosis or regurgitation and leading to patient symptoms.The most common causes are tissue degeneration,rheumatic fever and congenital heart diseases.Aortic valve replacement(AVR)using either mechanical or bioprosthetic(tissue)valves via open-heart surgical

Psychological Influence Factors Analysis of the New Generation Employees’ Moral Choices from the Perspective of Cognitive Neurology

At present,the academic researches on moral choices focus mainly on the individuals’external behaviors,without fully considering the influences of the individuals’internal psychological factors.Based on the model of complete information static games in the Non-cooperative Game theory,the present research has designed a“Red and Blue Experiment”to explore the psychological influencing factors of the new generation employees’moral choices.The research has conducted psychoanalysis on the new generation employees through experiments and interviews with 118 data sources,and concluded the characteristics in relation to the different stages of psychological processes and moral choices of the experimental population.Through comparative analysis,it is found that:the psychological factors,such as trust,doubt,and guilt will influence the new generation employees’moral choices,guiding them to make choices,such as risk aversion and mutual benefit and win-win,in the process.Additionally,the research has also provided effective scientific evidence for the new generation employees’mental health development and career planning.