Study of aquatic chemical characteristic in some bays along the coastal region of Zhejiang Province

In this paper,the aquatic chemical characteristics in the Hangzhou Bay,Xiangshan Bay and Leqing Bay along the coastal region of Zhejiang Province are discussed . Results show that the seasonal variations of chemical elements are obvious. The distribution of silicate in Hangzhou Bay and contents of dissolved oxygen and nutrient in the Xiangshan Bay are found to be unusual in winter. Correlations among the elements are complex. The content of nutrient in the Hangzhou Bay is higher than that in Xiangshan Bay and the content of nutrient in the Xiangshan Bay is higher than that in the Leqing Bay . The variation of the ratio of N/P is obvious. This reflects the aquatic chemical characteristics in the bay. Finally, this paper also discusses the reason why the aquatic chemical characteristics in the bays are unusual.

Study on Seawater Intrusion in Kiaochow Bay Region

General situation of the seawater intrusion in Kiaochow Bay region was analyzed. Current status of the seawater intrusion and its formation mechanism, influence factor and hazard in Kiaochow Bay region were summarized. Finally, against seawater intrusion situation in the region, a series of practical prevention and control countermeasures were proposed.

Urban Space Reshaping Based on Regional Urban Design:A Case Study of Urban Design of Taiping Bay Wharf Area in Yantai City

In the process of rapid development of urbanization and constant adjustment of urban space,urban characteristics are faced with many challenges.Taking Taiping Bay wharf area of Yantai City as an example,the paper sorts out the spatial construction problems from the aspects of historical development,urban texture and cultural characteristics by exploring the research process and methods of regional urban design,and put forward optimization strategies from the perspectives of urban structure optimization,street image design,industrial building transformation and cultural space establishment based on the characteristic resources of the area,thus providing experiences for future regional urban design.

基于Bayes判别分析模型的水土保持区划

为了更加合理地对甘肃、宁夏、青海3省份的黄土丘陵沟壑区进行水土保持区划,基于Bayes判别分析理论建立水土保持区划的数学模型。结合甘肃、宁夏、青海3省份的自然条件,社会经济情况和水土资源流失特点,以垦殖率、林草覆盖率、人口密度、单位面积粮食产量、降雨量和蒸发量等6个指标作为区划判别因子。计算分析表明,该模型与按土壤侵蚀类型进行区划的效果一致,与甘肃、宁夏、青海地区实际区划情况吻合,准确率为100%,可在其他水土保持区划中进行推广。

基于Bayes分析的区域综合运输通道出行方式分担率研究

基于Bayes分析,提出了一种区域综合运输通道出行方式分担率模型。根据Bayes定理,将出行方式选择分为三个阶段:先验分布的确定、条件分布的获取以及出行方式分担率的求解。将出行方式的供给特性作为先验信息,采用效用值代替MNL模型中的效用函数,计算先验分布。通过抽样获取出行者特征的样本信息,从样本信息中获得条件分布。采用Bayes分析综合计算得到后验分布后,采用全概率公式修正得到出行方式分担率。与其他选择模型相比,无需进行参数标定,降低了结果对样本数据的依赖,提高了预测精度。

Formation conditions and exploration direction of large natural gas reservoirs in the oil-prone Bohai Bay Basin, East China

The Bohai Bay Basin is a typical oil-prone basin, in which natural gas geological reserves have a small proportion. In this basin, the gas source rock is largely medium-deep lake mudstone with oil-prone type Ⅱ2-Ⅱ1 kerogens, and natural gas preservation conditions are poor due to active late tectonic movements. The formation conditions of large natural gas fields in the Bohai Bay Basin have been elusive. Based on the exploration results of Bohai Bay Basin and comparison with large gas fields in China and abroad, the formation conditions of conventional large-scale natural gas reservoirs in the Bohai Bay Basin were examined from accumulation dynamics, structure and sedimentation. The results show that the formation conditions of conventional large natural gas reservoirs in Bohai Bay Basin mainly include one core element and two key elements. The core factor is the strong sealing of Paleogene "quilt-like" overpressure mudstone. The two key factors include the rapid maturation and high-intensity gas generation of source rock in the late stage and large scale reservoir. On this basis, large-scale nature gas accumulation models in the Bohai Bay Basin have been worked out, including regional overpressure mudstone enriching model, local overpressure mudstone depleting model, sand-rich sedimentary subsag depleting model and late strongly-developed fault depleting model. It is found that Bozhong sag, northern Liaozhong sag and Banqiao sag have favorable conditions for the formation of large-scale natural gas reservoirs, and are worth exploring. The study results have important guidance for exploration of large scale natural gas reservoirs in the Bohai Bay Basin.

Bayes条件下非线性模型的参数置信域的曲率表示

给出了Bayes条件下非线性模型的参数估计,建立了该模型的几何结构,推广了Bates&Wates关于非线性回归模型的几何框架,在此基础上,用几何方法探讨了关于参数与子集参数置信域的曲率表示.

Numerical study of the seasonal salinity budget of the upper ocean in the Bay of Bengal in 2014

Impact factors on the salinity budget, especially the eddy salt fluxes and smaller-scale diffusive salt fluxes for the upper 50 m of the Bay of Bengal(BoB) in 2014 are investigated using a box model based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS) daily outputs. The model results reproduce that the precipitation and river runoff s are the dominant factors modulating the sharp salinity decrease during the summer monsoon season. The analysis shows that the salinity increase after the summer monsoon is mostly due to the meridional advective and diffusive salt fluxes. The vertical advective salt flux, which is sensitive to the different signals of the wind stress curl, plays an important role in balancing the salinity change induced by the meridional advective salt flux during both the summer and winter monsoon seasons. Distinctive spatial mesoscale structures are presented in the eddy salt flux throughout the year, and their contributions are sizeable(over 30% in the meridional direction and about 10%–30% in the vertical direction). The meridional eddy salt flux is larger in the monsoon seasons than that in the inter-monsoon seasons, and in a positive pattern near the western boundary during the winter monsoon and autumn inter-monsoon. The vertical eddy salt flux makes an important contribution to the salinity budget, especially along the coastal area and around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The vertical eddy salt flux becomes large when a tropical cyclone passes the area.

Red Tide Information Extraction Based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data in Haizhou Bay

[Objective] The aim was to extract red tide information in Haizhou Bay on the basis of multi-source remote sensing data.[Method] Red tide in Haizhou Bay was studied based on multi-source remote sensing data,such as IRS-P6 data on October 8,2005,Landsat 5-TM data on May 20,2006,MODIS 1B data on October 6,2006 and HY-1B second-grade data on April 22,2009,which were firstly preprocessed through geometric correction,atmospheric correction,image resizing and so on.At the same time,the synchronous environment monitoring data of red tide water were acquired.Then,band ratio method,chlorophyll-a concentration method and secondary filtering method were adopted to extract red tide information.[Result] On October 8,2005,the area of red tide was about 20.0 km2 in Haizhou Bay.There was no red tide in Haizhou bay on May 20,2006.On October 6,2006,large areas of red tide occurred in Haizhou bay,with area of 436.5 km2.On April 22,2009,red tide scattered in Haizhou bay,and its area was about 10.8 km2.[Conclusion] The research would provide technical ideas for the environmental monitoring department of Lianyungang to implement red tide forecast and warning effectively.

Analysis of the Higher Education Research in the Chengdu-Chongqing Region:A Comparative Perspective Based on Three Major Economic Circles in China

Drawing on literature regarding higher education research retrieved from the CNKI database from 1997 to 2021,this paper used CiteSpace to analyze the current status of higher education research in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.By comparing it with that in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,and the Yangtze River Delta,this paper concluded that the level of higher education research within a region is in line with the level of the region’s economic and social development.As higher education research in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle draws more and more attention,its research areas and topics are becoming increasingly diversified.However,by comparison,the research in this region features a late start and lower participation of researchers and research institutions,resulting in insufficient research in both quantity and quality.Therefore,it is essential to encourage more experts and scholars to participate in higher education research in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.Efforts should also be made to strengthen academic exchanges and cooperation between scholars in Chengdu and Chongqing and establish a long-term cooperation mechanism for higher education research between the two cities.Improved higher education research will definitely facilitate the construction of first-class universities,thus providing human capital and intellectual support for the construction of the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle.

Promoting East-West Interaction Exclusive interview with Dr.Cao Yushu,Deputy Director of the Office of the Leading Group for Western Region Development at the State Council

Economic growth and environmental "friendliness" are the dual missions of China's grand western development. In the past eight years,China has seen the gap between eastern and western regions still widening while also taking on the arduous task of protecting nature,ecology and environment in the western region. How has western development fared in the past eight years? What difficulties and challenges are being encountered? The development of the western region poses the single greatest difficulty facing China's regional economic development,but how can we advance along a "sound and fast" development path? The establishment of economic zones in Chengdu and Chongqing,Guanzhong and North Bay has opened up new possibilities and expectations for western China's economic development.

基于显著性区域的数字媒体图像色域边界提取方法

为提升色域边界提取的完整性,提出一种基于显著性区域的数字媒体图像色域边界提取方法。通过简单线性迭代聚类算法,超像素分割原始数字媒体图像;利用基于纹理特征的K均值(K-means)聚类方法,修正超像素分割结果中的欠分割区域;利用颜色直方图全局对比算法,计算修正后超像素层的颜色显著性值,结合贝叶斯框架,提取数字媒体图像的显著性区域;以色相角聚类的方式,在显著性区域内,提取数字媒体图像色域边界。实验证明:该方法可有效超像素分割数字媒体图像,得到显著性区域;可有效提取数字媒体图像色域边界;提取的色域边界点空间分布较均匀,即色域边界提取的完整性较优。

区域电力市场环境下的省电力公司报价策略研究

在区域电力市场环境下,如何利用有效信息,获得最优报价策略是省电力公司急待解决的问题。针对存在多个发电商和多个省电力公司报价的区域电力市场,采用线性报价规则和统一边际电价结算方法对市场出清价的解析式进行推导;在不完全信息条件下,对各发电商和省电力公司的报价策略进行估计,并采用概率统计理论,假设其服从一定的分布;根据其分布参数进一步推导市场出清价的分布。在此基础上,对省电力公司报价成功与不成功的概率进行计算,并采用博弈论构建省电力公司的期望收益优化模型,通过求解得出报价的贝叶斯均衡,即省电力公司的最优报价策略。算例表明,本文提出的报价策略模型是可行的,对省电力公司有一定的指导作用。

区域洪涝灾害风险估算模型及其应用

为了减轻洪涝灾害造成的损失,针对系统存在的风险指标,研制区域洪涝灾害风险估算模型.应用马尔科夫链进行某种趋势外推型的风险预测,并估算洪涝灾害无实测值的状态;采用贝叶斯统计理论和方法,通过先验分布结合样本信息来推求后验分布,以最大概率原则判别风险估算的趋势,按照估算结果及当地的实际情况,适度调整针对洪涝灾害的策略,尽可能控制并减轻其造成的影响.应用实例验证了该模型的可行性.

三支决策朴素贝叶斯增量学习算法研究

增量学习利用增量数据中的有用信息通过修正分类参数来更新分类模型,而朴素贝叶斯算法具有利用先验信息以及增量信息的特性,因此朴素贝叶斯算法是增量学习算法设计的最佳选择。三支决策是一种符合人类认知模式的决策理论,具有主观的特性。将三支决策思想融入朴素贝叶斯增量学习中,提出一种基于三支决策的朴素贝叶斯增量学习算法。基于朴素贝叶斯算法构造了一个称为分类确信度的概念,结合代价函数,用以确定三支决策理论中的正域、负域和边界域。利用三个域中的有用信息构造基于三支决策的朴素贝叶斯增量学习算法。实验结果显示,在阈值α和β选择合适的情况下,基于该方法的分类准确性和召回率均有明显的提高。

区域地貌中的聚类分析及贝叶斯判别方法

为了对区域地貌的各项数据进行科学解读,以寻求建立区域地貌数字系统的方法与模式,利用系统聚类法对区域地貌进行了分类,并用贝叶斯判别法检验了分类的合理性,结果与用系统聚类法得到的分类一致,说明系统聚类法对区域地貌数据分析的结果是科学的。

定时截尾指数分布先验数的适合域

本文研究在定时截尾有替换试验下，指数分布点估计的先验参数的确定方法，讨论了先验参数的有关性质。

关中-天水经济区生态系统固碳服务空间流动及格局优化

【目的】量化区域生态系统固碳服务(以下简称"固碳服务")的供需平衡状况,模拟固碳服务的空间流动,揭示区域固碳服务功能转变的空间规律,并据此给出区域固碳空间布局优化策略,为引导区域的低碳发展提供直观的科学参考。【方法】通过多源数据融合模型模拟人口空间密度,进而估算关中-天水经济区生态系统固碳服务需求量;使用CASA模型计算研究区生物碳库的固碳服务供给量,在此基础上结合遥感碳循环过程模型估算土壤碳库的固碳服务供给量;使用流动比率量化区域固碳服务的供需平衡状况,以空间可视化的方式梳理固碳服务从供给区到受益区的流动过程;基于贝叶斯原理计算环境变量对固碳服务供给的状态条件概率,将其可视化表达为条件概率像素图,通过熵减模型筛选关键变量,利用关键因子最优状态子集分布探讨固碳格局的不确定性,并给出固碳空间布局优化策略。【结果】(1)研究区固碳服务总体上供大于求,供需平衡空间差异明显,需求的高值区主要分布在关中平原的人口高度聚集区,供给的高值区则主要沿秦岭山脉和北山山系分布。(2)根据流动比率分布,研究区大致可分为三大碳源集聚中心:以天水市区为中心的碳源集聚中心(Ri>0.04),以彬县为中心的碳源集聚中心(Ri>0.04),以及以最高值西安市为中心的多级碳源集聚中心(Ri>0.20)。其空间流动则可分为四组供需对应区域:秦岭中段、东段及北山的永寿县等流向以西安市为中心的关中城市群,秦岭西段流向天水市,麟游县、旬邑县等流向彬县,铜川市、澄城县、华县等流向蒲城县。(3)根据条件概率和熵减度计算,研究区可取{DEM=3,PET=1}作为生物碳库的关键变量最优状态子集,该子集主要分布在宝鸡市南部秦岭山脉和天水市西南角,该区域中生物固碳状态为最优的概率可以达到54.36%;取{NPP=3,DEM=3}作为土壤碳库的关键变量最优状态子集,该子集主要分布在秦岭山脉沿线、天水市西南角和咸阳市东北角,这些区域中土壤固碳状态为最优的概率高达92.84%。与现有固碳格局对比得出,生物碳库的适宜优化区主要分布在天水市武山县和秦州区,土壤碳库的适宜优化区主要分布在秦岭中段各区县。【结论】研究区固碳服务总体上需求小于供给,区域内存在较明显的固碳服务空间流动,未来的固碳格局优化中以天水和秦岭中段作为固碳功能优化的主要区域,能够得到良好固碳格局优化成效的概率较大。

基于贝叶斯模型的区域水安全评价

针对区域水安全评价中的不确定性,本文采用概率论中的贝叶斯方法对区域水安全状况进行评价,并采用抽样误差正态分布原理估计条件概率。以山东省水资源安全状况评价为例,并与其他评价方法和区域实际水安全状况对比。评价结果表明,贝叶斯方法应用于水安全评价具有简单、实用的特点,能够较为客观的反应区域水安全具体状态。

Improving naive Bayes classifier by dividing its decision regions

Classification can be regarded as dividing the data space into decision regions separated by decision boundaries.In this paper we analyze decision tree algorithms and the NBTree algorithm from this perspective.Thus,a decision tree can be regarded as a classifier tree,in which each classifier on a non-root node is trained in decision regions of the classifier on the parent node.Meanwhile,the NBTree algorithm,which generates a classifier tree with the C4.5 algorithm and the naive Bayes classifier as the root and leaf classifiers respectively,can also be regarded as training naive Bayes classifiers in decision regions of the C4.5 algorithm.We propose a second division (SD) algorithm and three soft second division (SD-soft) algorithms to train classifiers in decision regions of the naive Bayes classifier.These four novel algorithms all generate two-level classifier trees with the naive Bayes classifier as root classifiers.The SD and three SD-soft algorithms can make good use of both the information contained in instances near decision boundaries,and those that may be ignored by the naive Bayes classifier.Finally,we conduct experiments on 30 data sets from the UC Irvine (UCI) repository.Experiment results show that the SD algorithm can obtain better generali-zation abilities than the NBTree and the averaged one-dependence estimators (AODE) algorithms when using the C4.5 algorithm and support vector machine (SVM) as leaf classifiers.Further experiments indicate that our three SD-soft algorithms can achieve better generalization abilities than the SD algorithm when argument values are selected appropriately.