Perception of Fogera Cattle Farmers on Climate Change and Variability in Awi Zone, Ethiopia

This study aimed at assessing perception of Fogera cattle farmers on climate change and variability in selected districts of Awi zone. The zone was classified as lowland (<1500), midland (1500 - 2500), and highland (>2500 m.a.s.l) based on altitudinal variation from which a total of three districts one per cluster were selected through random sampling. 150 households were selected through systematic random sampling targeting Fogera cattle owners for primary data collection. Over 36 years (from 1983-2019) of meteorological data were taken from the National Meteorological Agency. Meteorological data result confirmed that climate was changing across all the agro-ecological zones. Both the mean annual maximum and minimum temperature was considerably increasing for all agro-ecological zones whereas the mean annual rainfall was decreasing which is consistent with the farmers’ perception. Meteorological data result also showed that the short rainy and dry season rainfall indicated high interannual variability at all agro-ecological zones. Survey result revealed that 97.13% of the farmers recognized climate change and variability impact in all agro-ecological zones. About 80.91% of Fogera cattle farmers reported the incidence of negative impacts of climate change and variability on cattle. Chi-square test values of survey results show that in all agro-ecological zones frequency of drought, duration of dry spell, wind, and floods were ever-increasing (p < 0.001). Moreover, about 84.48%, 65.3%, and 60.47% of farmers owning Fogera cattle in the lowland, midland, and highland, respectively perceived the prevalence of increasing (p < 0.001) cattle mortality. In response to climate change and variability, farmers were reducing number of livestock, diversification of livestock species, and replacing Fogera cattle with small ruminants as adaptation strategies. Thus, regular prediction of climate change and variability and designing pertinent response strategies is essential to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change for enhancing resilience capacity of the Fogera cattle farmers in the study areas.

Climate change under CMIP5-RCP scenarios in Ethiopia:The Bale mountains ecoregion

The Bale mountains ecoregion in Ethiopia provides a number of benefits for the local communities mainly in terms of water supply,power generation,tourism activity,and irrigation development.Notwithstanding,the ecoregion has been characterized primarily by recurring floods and droughts,as well as crop failure due to a variety of natural and human-activity-driven change factors.As a matter of fact,the purpose of this study would be to examine long-term changes and fluctuation in precipitation(PCP),maximum temperature(T_(max)),and minimum temperature(T_(min))in the Bale mountains ecoregion using ensembles of three climate models with three representative concentration pathways(RCPs)scenarios from the coupled model inter-comparison project phase five(CMIP5)dataset.Statistical downscaling model(SDSM)was applied to project PCP,T_(max),and T_(min)in the forthcoming period considering three RCPs:low emission(RCP2.6),intermediate(RCP4.5),and high emission(RCP8.5).SDSM's performance in capturing historical daily PCP,T_(max),and T_(min)has been validated using standard statistical metrics such as coefficient of determination(R^(2)),Nash Sutcliff efficiency(NSE),and root mean square error(RMSE).SDSM has the potential to generate a statistical transfer function between large-scale variables and local climate,allowing PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) to be downscaled to a point scale for the ecoregion.The magnitude of mean yearly changes in PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) were investigated throughout three thirty-year time slices,corresponding to the 2020s,2050s,and 2080s.The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was used to analyse trends in PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) from 2011 to 2100.Inter-annual variability in PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) were investigated for the aforementioned period,taking standard deviation into account under each RCP scenarios.The results reveal that mean annual PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) are rising in all three time slices and in all three CMIP5 RCP scenarios as compared to the baseline scenario.Mean annual PCP is projected to increase within the uncertainty range of 6.68% to 17.93%(RCP2.6),7.45% to 21.94%(RCP4.5),and 19.70% to 33.69%(RCP4.5)(RCP8.5).T_(max) increases from 0.04℃ to 0.24℃(RCP2.6),0.05℃ to 0.31℃(RCP4.5),and 0.04℃ to 0.42℃(RCP8.5),whereas T_(min) increases from 0.22℃ to 0.52℃(RCP2.6),0.23℃ to 0.67℃(RCP4.5),and 0.26℃ to 1.14℃(RCP8.5)(RCP8.5).For future projections at the end of the 21^(st) century,the mean annual PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) for all three analysed climate models and RCPs have shown a positive trend.The inter-annual variability of PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) is higher in the RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 in all climate models.The findings clearly implied that prior understanding of long-term climate change and variability need to be addressed to plan effective and efficient mitigation strategies,as well as to maintain adequate quantity and quality of water supplies to the communities residing in the ecoregion.

Drivers of Land Cover Dynamics for Pugu and Kazimuzumbwi Forest Reserves in Kisarawe, Tanzania

Forests that are close to growing urban centres have been subject to constant deforestation and degradation from various factors. This study assesses the drivers of land cover dynamics in Pugu and Kazimzumbwi forest reserves in the context of urban and peri-urban expansion of Dar es Salaam for the past three decades. The study adopted review of relevant literature and household survey from three settlements surrounding the forest reserves. One hundred and fifty (150) households were collected from Buyuni, Chanika and Masaki in Ilala and Kisarawe and administered with semi-structured questionnaire to collect information on migration, use of forest products by communities and perception on climate change and variability. SPSS computer program was used to analyse the questionnaire data while tables and graphs were adopted for presentation of the results. Rural-urban and internal urban migration in Dar es Salaam was identified as one of the primary drivers of land cover dynamics in peri-urban areas and adjoining environments. The migration was intensified by push drivers which include urban growth, market of land and reliance on forest product among community members as source of their livelihoods. The increased rainfall variability accompanied with high temperature has contributed to frequent droughts which compromises rainfed agriculture. Thus, the successful conservation of the forest will require strengthened enforcement of protection measures supported with introduction of alternative livelihood strategies for majority of poor community members.