Migration drivers in mountain regions in the context of climate change:A case study in Shangnan County of China

Climate change has become widely accepted as a challenge that humans will face in the not-too-distant future.Mountain ecosystems and their inhabitants are among the most vulnerable to climate change.This paper seeks to explain migration drivers in specific mountain regions in the context of climate change based on Foresight's conceptual framework.A climate change sensitive field named Shangnan County in southern Shaanxi Province is chosen as the case study area to investigate local migration drivers.A series of qualitative research methods is employed in the case study including participant observation,semi-structured interviews,and focus group discussions.The evidence of survey suggests that migration decisions are not only shaped by macro factors in aspects of environmental,economics,demographic,social,politics and psychological,but also influenced by placed-related barriers and facilitating mechanisms and personal characteristics.

Habitable Land Will Soon Become the World’s Scarcest Resource: Why Appalachia Should Choose Climate Change Havens over Millionaire Estates and Golf Courses

This research advocates for the construction of Climate Change Haven Communities across the Appalachian Region. The proposed development plan can be extended to the northern tier states across the US and also to the northern and mountainous regions of Europe and Asia. We present an analogy to the earlier climate change period of the Last Glacial Maximum/“Ice Age” in which these same northern regions of the planet were covered in ice sheets making them uninhabitable for most humans and many plant and animal species. In some significant ways, the Ice Age scenario can be a reverse-model for our current climate crisis. We also advocate strongly for the prevention of upscale real estate development projects in these same regions of the globe, as these will foreclose the possibility of safely sheltering the millions of persons who will be displaced by climate change over the next 5 to 10 years.

Historical Course Follows Climate Change: Patterns of the Northern Hemisphere — From Peoples’ Migration until the Industrial Revolution (3^rd-18^thCentury)

This paper relates to the statement that the so-called “Little Ice Age” (RCC 6: 1.350-1.800 A.D.) represents—besides the 8k-Event (8.200-8.000 yr cal. B.P.)—the fastest and strongest onset in Holocene History [1]. Its intention focuses on the correlation of interplaying natural processes (i.e. solar energy variation, aerosols, oceanic currents, volcanism as part of plate tectonics, heat flow) with social/political evidence through the time-span of Peoples’ Migration until Industrial Revolution (3rd-18th Century). The time-span comprises the cool/wet/respectively dry climate phase of the P.M. (260-550), a Climate Optimum (600-1.100 A.D.) owning a final Thermal Maximum (1.100-1.260 A.D.) and the “little Ice Age” (1.350-1.800 A.D.), the latter intercalated by the Spörer Minimum (1.460-1.550 A.D.) and the Maunder Minimum (1.650-1.720 A.D.). Thereby, an average temperature difference of 1.0°C - 2.0°C seems sufficient for incising climatic/cultural consequences [2]. It has become obvious that a Climate Optimum primarily provides constructive life conditions;however with a problematic final as the following “Effect-Chain” tells: balanced agricultural/cultural population growth → rich harvests → satisfying nourishment → health, encouragement → overpopulation under favorable materialistic conditions → increasing stress → lack of food, high prices → revolts → migration. In contrast, cool/wet/resp. dry conditions originate destructive/depressive conditions (see Peoples’ Migration) which initiate the following “Effect Chain”: bad agricultural conditions → poor/no harvesting → famine → disease, growing death rate → social, political revolts, wars → human cruelties with psychic/religious background (inquisition, witch-combustion → general chaos (30 yr-war) → death, migration (maritime endeavors, colonization). Furthermore, it should be stressed that volcanic aerosols play besides the solar influx variation—an important role on climate/cultural change [3]. However, the effects of oceanic currents’ heat flow of Mid-Oceanic Ridges and Hot Spots, as well as Earth-Magnetism and Sun/Earth Geometry are poorly understood in this context (Example: Iceland as hot spot situated on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge having been working since 40 Ma). The Chapter-introducing citations play a challenging role in regard to Science Criticism and touch the so-called 95% Confidence line (accepted realm of causal interrelation and according recommendation to Society [4]).

Social and Economic Considerations for Creating Sustainable Climate Change Haven Communities

As Climate Change Haven Communities are constructed across the Northern Hemisphere, it will be necessary to attract two types of migrants to populate them. The first group consists of professionals and companies in eco-sustainable businesses, such as law firms, insurance companies, investment firms, banking, technological innovation, mass media, medical research and pharmaceutical research. The second group will consist of persons engaged in organic/eco-sustainable agriculture whose crops and animal husbandry practices can be transferred successfully to Climate Change Haven regions. The present research focuses on the social and economic variables that must be taken into account to insure that each new Climate Change Haven Community becomes successfully integrated with the local population and forms a cohesive, harmonious social structure. Examples are given from the United States, France, Spain, Portugal and Italy.

Promoting Climate Change Havens in the United States and Globally for Migrating Populations

Appalachia has been identified as the largest Climate Change Haven in the continental United States and could serve as a refuge for millions of persons. This research presents a marketing plan for promoting migration to the Appalachian Region using advertising and a website that communicates the desirable qualities of the area. Communications will first be directed toward the current residents of Appalachia (the Internal Market) in order to create enthusiasm for welcoming new arrivals. Then, promotional messages will be sent to prospective migrants seeking to escape the negative effects of climate change in the Southeast and Southwest of the United States and globally (the External Market). The approach used here may be applicable to Climate Change Havens across the globe.

Adjustment of the annual cycle to climatic change in a long-lived migratory bird species

Climate change has advanced the phenology of many organisms. Migratory animals face particular problems because climate change in the breeding and the wintering range may be asynchronous, preventing rapid response to changing conditions. Advancement in timing of spring migration may have carry-over effects to other parts of the annual cycle, simply because advancement of one event in the annual cycle also advances subsequent events, gradually causing a general shift in the timing of the entire annual cycle. Such a phenotypic shift could generate accumulating effects over the years for individuals, but also across generations. Here we test this novel hypothesis of phenotypic response to climate change by using long-term data on the Arctic tern Sterna paradisaea. Mean breeding date advanced by almost three weeks during the last 70 years. Annual arrival date at the breeding grounds during a period of 47 years was predicted by environmental conditions in the winter quarters in the Southern Ocean near the Antarctic and by mean breeding date the previous year. Annual mean breeding date was only marginally determined by timing of arrival the current year, but to a larger extent by arrival date and breeding date the previous year. Learning affected arrival date as shown by a positive correlation between arrival date in year （i ＋ 1） relative to breeding date in year （i） and the selective advantage of early breeding in year （i）. This provides a mechanism for changes in arrival date being adjusted to changing environmental conditions. This study suggests that adaptation to changing climatic conditions can be achieved through learning from year to year

Exploring the relationship between climate change and violent conflict

Does climate change lead to violent conflict? This article reviews the existing literature connecting climatic conditions to conflict. It finds that the existing literature has not detected a robust and general effect from climate to conflict onset. Moreover, there exists scientific agreement that climatic changes can contribute to conflict under some conditions and through certain pathways.In particular, the recent literature offers considerable suggestive evidence that climatic changes can lead to conflict in countries and/or regions, which are dependent on agriculture, host politically excluded groups, and have ineffective institutions. Future research should focus not only on understanding of the pathways and contexts in which climatic changes are most likely to increase or exacerbate the risk of conflict but also work to understand the mechanisms by which climate variability and change might cause conflict.

Habitat Suitability and Distribution Pattern Response to Global Climate Change in a Widespread Species,the Asiatic Toad(Bufo gargarizans)

The distribution and diversity of the species are closely related to the global climate.As the most widely distributed species of Bufonidae in China,the study of the distribution pattern and habitat suitability of the Asiatic toad under climate change can help us understand the reply pattern of Bufonidae habitat to climate change.Here,combined with the Maxent model and GIS technology,the effects of climate change on the distribution pattern and habitat suitability of the Asiatic toad were comprehensively analyzed.The results show that the rainfall during the wettest season(Bio16)and the mean temperature of the driest season(Bio9)have a considerable impact on the distribution of the Asiatic toad.In the next 30 to 50 years,across the overall spacial scale of the Chinese mainland,the habitat of the Asiatic toad will be primarily in the eastern part of China and less in south part,while its distribution area will expand to the midwest and northwest parts of China.Overall,the area in which it can be distributed will be reduced and suitable habitat will shift to some regions of higher latitude and elevation.In a word,we systematically analyzed the changes of the distribution pattern and habitat suitability of the Asiatic toad with climate change,and we aim to provide data on how climatic variation may impact amphibians.

Assessing the Factors Influencing Migration Decision of Climate Refugees in Coastal Areas of Bangladesh

The major impacts of climate change play a substantial role in triggering human migration, especially in the coastal areas. The individual or combined effects of climate change are likely to trigger mass human movement both within and across international borders. People rarely move for a single reason;the motivation to migrate is complex of many factors. The main goal of this article is to identify the factors related to the decision to migrate taken by refugees in the coastal area. To assess this objective we employ exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) and find that different factors influence refugees’ migration decision differently. From the findings, it is seen that loss of shelter, extreme events, decreasing soil fertility and food shortage, variability in temperature patterns and exhaustion of natural resources are the most important environmental factors that affect the decision to migrate of climate refugees. Low income, increasing price, decreasing purchasing power are the most important economic factors that influence migration decision. No social factors have significant effect on migration decision while safety as a political factor has a moderate influence on refugees’ decision to migrate. Finally, this article provides some recommendations for recognition of and protection for migrants forced to move to safer places due to certain direct impacts of climate change, notwithstanding the existence of multi-causality.

Climate change, migration, and regional administrative reform： A case study of Xinjiang in the middle Qing Dynasty(1760–1884)

Based on historical records of extreme climate events and population densities in Gansu and Shaanxi, and information on climate change, populations, new cultivated cropland, and administrative system reform in Xinjiang, this study explores the interaction between climate change, migration, and regional administrative reform in the middle Qing Dynasty. The results showed that the surge in population migration from Gansu and Shaanxi to Xinjiang during 1760–1820 was caused by extreme climate events(droughts and floods) and population pressure in Gansu and Shaanxi. During 1760–1880, the climate in Xinjiang was unusually cold and humid, which was highly conducive to abundant regional water resources. This provided favorable conditions for farmland irrigation and further promoted agricultural cultivation, population growth, and town development within this region. Additionally,the interactions between climate change and the above-mentioned social factors, which acted as driving forces, spurred the reform in the administrative system of Xinjiang whereby the military administration system was transformed to a province administration system. Through this reform, the Qing government managed to restore peace and stability in Xinjiang. This study contributes to a better understanding of climate-related population migration and enhances our knowledge of the impact-response chain between climate change, ancient social developments, and political coping strategies, especially in regional administrative reform.

Alpine Taxa Exhibit Differing Responses to Climate Warming in the Snowy Mountains of Australia

The phenologies of plants and animals in snow-covered landscapes are expected to accelerate with global warming.However,there are few studies that have examined a range of unrelated taxa in alpine environments to determine whether there is commonality in the proximate causes,synchrony in timing,or the direction of any changes.Records for five alpine animal species and two alpine plant species,chosen primarily for their visibility,were examined to determine their temporal response to regional climate warming.Over the 30-year period studied,they showed an array of different phenological responses.Plant flowering appeared linked to date of snow melt,whereas animal responses varied.Although having accelerated phenologies,two migratory bird species exhibited contrary changes;one to low-altitude warming regardless of snow conditions in the alpine zone (flame robin) and the other to state of the snowpack regardless of low-altitude temperatures (Richard's pipit).By contrast,the migratory bogong moth arrived significantly later over the years with no apparent explanatory climatic cause.Although bogong moths are not responding to earlier snow melt,insectivorous predators on the ground are.This could lead to a serious mismatch in timing at different trophic levels,putting pressure on endangered vertebrates.Emergence of locally wintering insect species,March flies and Macleay's swallowtails,were not significantly related to measured climatic parameters over the study period.A consequence of the disparate responses to climate warming recorded here is the questionable value of 'indicator species' to examine the impact of climate warming on alpine ecosystems.

The roles of calving migration and climate change in the formation of the weak genetic structure in the Tibetan antelope(Pantholops hodgsonii)

Geographical barriers and distance can reduce gene exchange among animals,resulting in genetic divergence of geographically isolated populations.The Tibetan antelope(Pantholops hodgsonii)has a geographical range of approximately 1600 km across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,which comprises a series of tall mountains and big rivers.However,previous studies indicate that there is little genetic differentiation among their geographical­ly delineated populations.To better understand the genetic structure of P.hodgsonii populations,we collected 145 samples from the 3 major calving regions,taking into consideration their various calving grounds and mi­gration routes.We used a combination of mitochondrial sequences(Cyt b,ATPase,D-loop and COX I)to inves­tigate the genetic structure and the evolutionary divergence of the populations.Significant,albeit weak,genetic differentiation was detected among the 3 geographical populations.Analysis of the genetic divergence process revealed that the animals gradually entered a period of rapid genetic differentiation approximately 60000 years ago.The calving migration of P.hodgsonii cannot be the main cause of their weak genetic structure because this cannot fully homogenize the genetic pool.Instead,the geological and climatic events as well as the coupling vegetation succession process during this period have been suggested to greatly contribute to the genetic struc­ture and the expansion of genetic diversity.

Shifts in phenology of autumn migration and wing length among reedbed passerines along the East Asian–Australasian Flyway

Climate change impacts bird migration phenology,causing changes in departure and arrival dates,leading to potential mismatches between migration and other key seasonal constraints.While the impacts of climate change on arrival at breeding grounds have been relatively well documented,little is known about the impacts of climate change on post-breeding migration,especially at stopover sites.Here we use long-term(11 years)banding data(11,118 captures)from 7 species at Mai Po Marshes Nature Reserve in Hong Kong,a key stopover site for migratory birds along the East Asian–Australasian Flyway,to describe long-term changes in migration phenology and to compare observed changes to annual weather variation.We also examine changes in wing length over a longer time period(1985–2020)as wing length often correlates positively with migration distance.We found that observed changes in migratory phenology vary by species;three species had later estimated arrival(by 1.8 days per year),peak(by 2.6 days per year)or departure(by 2.5 days per year),one showed an earlier peak date(by 1.8days per year)and two showed longer duration of passage(2.7 days longer and 3.2 days longer per year).Three species exhibited no long-term change in migration phenology.For two of the four species with shifting phenology,temperature was an important predictor of changing peak date,departure dates and duration of passage.Wing length was shorter in three species and longer in two species,but these changes did not correlate with observed phenological changes.The complex changes observed here are indicative of the challenges concerning the detection of climate change in migratory stopover sites.Continued monitoring and a better understanding of the dynamics of all sites in the migratory pathway will aid conservation of these species under global change.

Local Adaptation Mechanisms to Address Climate Led Food Insecurity in Far-western Nepal:The Case of Badimalika Municipality

The study was carried out to understand the food security situation and coping mechanisms due to an effect of climate change on food security of Badimalika Municipality of Bajura district in the far-western region;an acute food deficit district of Nepal.Literature review,household questionnaire survey to document primary data,stakeholders’consultation with field observations were the principle methods applied to explore the possible adaptation measures for securing food and livelihood of people.The research revealed that the district is food insecure for at least six to nine months of a year which is worsened by climate induced natural disasters:flood,landslides and drought.Sudden and unpredictable precipitation both in winter and monsoon has distorted the productions over the years.Considerable proportions of grazing land and forested area have been converted into farmland especially in the highlands.Migrating working class manpower to India to seek livelihoods is a menace to development in the place while seasonal migration in and outside the country is an interesting adaptive mechanism in the district.Drought resistant crop varieties such as Finger Millet(Elusine coracana),Foxtail Millet(Setaria italic L.),Wheat(Triticum aestivum),and Amaranth(Amaranthus sp.)are highly potential cereal crops that need to be promoted.Some humanitarian agencies with the support of GoN have been playing an important role in reducing the impact of food deficiency in the region.National Food Corporation District Office supplies the deficit quantity of food to the people.The government needs to make agriculture the highest priority with increased investment schemes to avert the looming food crisis with emphasis on further research based activities through understanding the impact of climate change on specific crops and respective technological interventions,incorporating local adaptation mechanisms for disasters and climate change.Slow-forming terraces,conservation tillage,crop diversification,selection and promotion of drought-resistant varieties of crops,ecological pest management,seed and grain storages etc.are some technological innovations to be considered for enhancing food security.

Changes in Avian Spring Arrival Dates of 115 Species in the Central Appalachians over 127 Years

Global climate change affects many facets of avian ecology, such as shifts in breeding phenology and migration patterns. Migrating bird species respond to changes in climate by shifting their temporal patterns of spring migration. However, variation in species’ responses exists based on various life history traits, which exposes some species to an increased risk of phenological mismatch. This study examined the spring arrival dates of 115 migrating species over 127 years (1889-2015) using archival sources in West Virginia, USA, making this research unique in the length of study, the high number of species studied, and the historical crowd-sourced observations analyzed. Of the 115 taxa, 45 showed significant negative slopes of spring arrival dates (arriving earlier in the spring) plotted against the year. In contrast, only nine species showed positive slopes (arriving later in the spring), albeit non-significant. The average advance of spring arrival date for all species was 1.7 days per decade, and an advance of 2.6 days per decade in species that showed significance. Arrival dates were associated with increasing spring temperatures—for each 1˚C increase, the arrival date advanced by 0.81 days/decade. Several life history traits were linked to species that advanced their first arrival dates, including a shorter distance migrated to reach wintering grounds, increasing populations, and foraging habitat. Most avian species are advancing their spring arrival dates in response to climate change. However, the implications of earlier spring arrival are unclear. We draw attention to shifts in arrival dates and wintering ranges, leading to a possible increase in overwintering in the mid-latitudes of North America.

不同气候情景下黄心梓木在我国的潜在适生区预测

【目的】预测不同气候情景下黄心梓木在我国的分布情况及其自然群体可能的迁移路线,为黄心梓木的保护和可持续利用提供科学依据,为濒危植物的潜在适生区预测和保护提供参考。【方法】基于当前和未来(2030s、2050s、2070s)4个时期的环境变量数据以及黄心梓木分布数据,利用MaxEnt模型模拟预测不同气候情景下黄心梓木在我国的潜在地理分布,综合分析限制其扩散的环境因子,制定针对性保护措施。【结果】1)MaxEnt模型各组曲线下面积(AUC)均高于0.9,模型预测结果非常准确。2)黄心梓木在我国的潜在适生区狭窄,当前适生区总面积为50416 km^(2),其中高适生区面积2309 km^(2),仅在黔南和黔西南部分地区分布,中适生区(面积14288 km^(2))在其周围分布,低适生区面积33819 km^(2),分布在贵州中部、广西、云南、四川等地;未来气候情景下,黄心梓木在我国的潜在适生区呈先扩张后收缩的变化趋势,其中高强迫(SSP5-8.5)情景下的2030s时期适生区总面积最大(70313 km^(2)),新增面积达当前适生区总面积的39%。3)最干月降水量(bio14)、海拔(bio20)、等温性(bio3)、年降水量(bio12)是限制黄心梓木分布的主导环境因子。4)未来气候情景下,黄心梓木潜在适生区的质心迁移方向总体为先向北移后向东南移。5)基于黄心梓木现状提出在高适生区范围内就地划分保护区,在湖北西部、重庆东北部等潜在适生区开展相关育种试验扩大其种植面积以及建立种质资源库等相关保护措施。【结论】黄心梓木在我国的潜在适生区较为狭窄且中、高适生区相对集中,大多分布在贵州西南部,广西、云南、四川、重庆以及湖北部分地区也可能有分布;目前黄心梓木的潜在适生区未达到饱和,预计适生区面积会持续扩增至2030s;未来气候情景下,黄心梓木潜在适生区面积呈先扩大后缩小的趋势;基于黄心梓木现状,建议以人为方式开展协助恢复其生境以及快速促进其种群扩大等相关保护措施。

气候变化背景下沿海城市有管理撤退的适应策略与挑战

近年来,气候变化带来的各种极端灾害事件严重冲击了沿海地区的安全稳定和可持续发展,如何适应气候变化的不利影响成为备受关注的议题。沿海气候变化的适应手段经历了从结构性保护到非结构性保护再到有管理撤退的认知转变。然而,当前对有管理撤退的挑战和对策还缺乏系统分析。该文首先回顾了有管理撤退的基本概念演变,指出撤退作为其他适应策略失败后的补救措施,以自发性和区域性管理为主,并概述了各国有管理撤退的实践现状;其次,讨论了当前有管理撤退面临的问题和发展趋势,如土地矛盾和撤退投资回报率、撤退公平性、文化遗产与社会和感情属性、政府管理和政治风险等;第三,聚焦我国有管理撤退的现状问题和未来研究方向,指出有管理撤退研究在中国仍处于起步阶段,缺乏完整的理论体系和实践,未来需要对概念、撤退阈值和行动规划、政策框架和相关影响进一步分析。前瞻性地对有管理撤退进行研究,可为沿海地区采取积极有效的气候适应行动,实现长期有效的灾害风险治理提供科学依据。

气候变化对丹顶鹤秋季迁徙路线潜在生境适宜性的影响

目前全球变暖趋势的加剧对丹顶鹤等大型濒危水禽的栖息地造成了严重的威胁。由于监测方法和技术手段的限制,丹顶鹤在迁徙路线上潜在生境的分布范围尚不清楚,气候变化对丹顶鹤迁徙路线生境适宜性的影响机理有待进一步研究。基于138个丹顶鹤样本分布信息和19种环境变量数据,利用BIOMOD2软件包构建了丹顶鹤潜在生境评价的组合模型,对丹顶鹤在亚洲东部秋季迁徙路线上的生境适宜性进行数值模拟,并预测SSP1.2-6气候背景下2021—2040年、2041—2060年、2061—2080年、2081—2100年四个不同阶段的丹顶鹤潜在生境范围的变化趋势。研究结果表明:与单模型的模拟结果相比,集成9种单模型的BIOMOD2组合模型预测精度更高。集成模型的重要性分析表明,气温日较差是丹顶鹤生境适宜性变化的最重要的影响因子。受气候变化的影响2021—2040年、2041—2060年、2061—2080年、2081—2100年丹顶鹤潜在生境的面积将分别减少到2.60×10^(5)km^(2)、2.58×10^(5)km^(2)、2.75×10^(5)km^(2)、2.56×10^(5)km^(2),迁徙路线上胶东半岛和环渤海地区适栖生境面积减少的最为显著。本研究对于迁徙路线上珍稀水禽潜在适宜生境的模拟及全球变化背景下珍稀水禽栖息地的保育和修复具有重要意义。

Avian responses to an extreme weather event:The case of the‘Filomena’snowstorm in Madrid(central Spain)

Cold spells and severe weather may have detrimental effects in wild birds,but owing to the stochastic nature of these events,it is not always possible to measure their impacts.In January 2021,a strong snowstorm known as‘Filomena’affected Spain,mainly the region of Madrid(Central Spain),which was fully covered with snow and suffered freezing temperatures for a fortnight.Using bird surveys conducted in the winter-spring of 2020 and 2021(before and after Filomena)at same locations,we addressed the possible impact of the cold spell in three widespread gamebirds:Wood Pigeon(Columba palumbus),Eurasian Magpie(Pica pica)and Red-legged Partridge(Alectoris rufa).No significant abundance differences were found between years for none of the species and hunting pressure was only significantly reduced for Partridges,hence this species may have been negatively affected by Filomena.Results suggest that in response to Filomena,Pigeons conducted partial migration in search of better conditions,while Magpies aggregated in certain areas of Madrid and Partridges endured the harsh conditions within their home ranges.Our results highlight the importance to alleviate negative impacts of extreme weather events in wild birds through management actions,especially for sedentary species.

生态移民国外研究进展

随着环境变化对人类生产生活影响程度的逐渐加深,越来越多的学者投身于对生态难民及其相关领域的研究。本文对生态移民的定义与分类、生态移民的产生原因、生态移民的相关预测与评估、环境变化与移民之间的关联等方面进行了重点综述,并对环境难民的进～步应用进行了展望。提出要扩大生态移民的研究区域、转移生态移民的预测重点、加深关于生态移民影响效益的评估研究、探索更综合严谨的生态移民研究方法以及建立一套适合于生态移民的应对指导体系和可持续发展体系。