Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related challenges.Amid this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of ...Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related challenges.Amid this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of physics in climate science has occasionally been overlooked.Our perspective suggests that the future of climate modeling involves a synergistic partnership between AI and physics,rather than an“either/or”scenario.Scrutinizing controversies around current physical inconsistencies in large AI models,we stress the critical need for detailed dynamic diagnostics and physical constraints.Furthermore,we provide illustrative examples to guide future assessments and constraints for AI models.Regarding AI integration with numerical models,we argue that offline AI parameterization schemes may fall short of achieving global optimality,emphasizing the importance of constructing online schemes.Additionally,we highlight the significance of fostering a community culture and propose the OCR(Open,Comparable,Reproducible)principles.Through a better community culture and a deep integration of physics and AI,we contend that developing a learnable climate model,balancing AI and physics,is an achievable goal.展开更多
The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m oc...The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m ocean heat content(OHC)reached record highs.The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15±10 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules=1021 Joules)(updated IAP/CAS data);9±5 ZJ(NCEI/NOAA data).The Tropical Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea,and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s.Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño,the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of~0.23℃ higher than 2022 and an astounding>0.3℃ above 2022 values for the second half of 2023.The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.展开更多
Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assesse...Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.展开更多
A set of standard chronologies for tree-ring width(TRW),earlywood width(EWW)and latewood width(LWW)in Pinus tabuliformis Carr.along an altitudi-nal gradient(1450,1400,and 1350 m a.s.l.)on Baiyunshan Mountain,Central C...A set of standard chronologies for tree-ring width(TRW),earlywood width(EWW)and latewood width(LWW)in Pinus tabuliformis Carr.along an altitudi-nal gradient(1450,1400,and 1350 m a.s.l.)on Baiyunshan Mountain,Central China to analyze the effect of varying temperature and precipitation on growth along the gradi-ent.Correlation analyses showed that at all three altitudes and the TRW and EWW chronologies generally had signifi-cant negative correlations with mean and maximum tem-peratures in the current April and May and with minimum temperatures in the prior July and August,but significant positive correlations with precipitation in the current May.Correlations were generally significantly negative between LWW chronologies and all temperatures in the prior July and August,indicating that the prior summer temperature had a strong lag effect on the growth of P.tabuliformis that increased with altitude.The correlation with the standard-ized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)confirmed that wet conditions in the current May promoted growth of TR and EW at all altitudes.Significant altitudinal differences were also found;at 1400 m,there were significant positive correlations between EWW chronologies and SPEI in the current April and significant negative correlations between LWW chronologies and SPEI in the current September,but these correlations were not significant at 1450 m.At 1350 m,there were also significant negative correlations between the TRW and the EWW chronologies and SPEI in the prior October and the current July and between LWW chronology and SPEI in the current August,but these cor-relations were not significant at 1400 m.Moving correlation results showed a stable response of EWW in relation to the SPEI in the current May at all three altitudes and of LWW to maximum temperature in the prior July-August at 1400 m from 2002 to 2018.The EWW chronology at 1400 m and the LWW chronology at 1450 m were identified as more suitable for climate reconstruction.These results provide a strong scientific basis for forest management decisions and climate reconstructions in Central China.展开更多
The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing ...The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.展开更多
The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of th...The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau,is a typical example.To understand the carbon and water fluxes,water use efficiency(WUE),and their responses to future climate change for the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Dangxiong area,two parameter estimation methods,the Model-independent Parameter Estimation(PEST)and the Dynamic Dimensions Search(DDS),were used to optimize the Biome-BGC model.Then,the gross primary productivity(GPP)and evapotranspiration(ET)were simulated.The results show that the DDS parameter calibration method has a better performance.The annual GPP and ET show an increasing trend,while the WUE shows a decreasing trend.Meanwhile,ET and GPP reach their peaks in July and August,respectively,and WUE shows a“dual-peak”pattern,reaching peaks in May and November.Furthermore,according to the simulation results for the next nearly 100 years,the ensemble average GPP and ET exhibit a significant increasing trend,and the growth rate under the SSP5–8.5 scenario is greater than that under the SSP2–4.5 scenario.WUE shows an increasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and a significant increasing trend under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.This study has important scientific significance for carbon and water cycle prediction and vegetation ecological protection on the Tibetan Plateau.展开更多
The rapid warming of the Arctic,accompanied by glacier and sea ice melt,has significant consequences for the Earth’s climate,ecosystems,and economy.Black carbon(BC)deposition on snow and ice can trigger a significant...The rapid warming of the Arctic,accompanied by glacier and sea ice melt,has significant consequences for the Earth’s climate,ecosystems,and economy.Black carbon(BC)deposition on snow and ice can trigger a significant reduction in snow albedo and accelerate melting of snow and ice in the Arctic.By reviewing the published literatures over the past decades,this work provides an overview of the progress in both the measurement and modeling of BC deposition and its impact on Arctic climate change.In summary,the maximum value of BC deposition appears in the western Russian Arctic(26 ng·g^(–1)),and the minimum value appears in Greenland(3 ng·g^(–1)).BC records in the Arctic ice core already peaked in 1920s and 1970s,and shows a regional difference between Greenland and Canadian Arctic.The different temporal variations of Arctic BC ice core records in different regions are closely related to the large variability of BC emissions and transportation processes across the Arctic region.Model simulations usually underestimate the concentration of BC in snow and ice by 2–3 times,and cannot accurately reflect the seasonal and regional changes in BC deposition.Wet deposition is the main removal mechanism of BC in the Arctic,and observations show different seasonal variations in BC wet deposition in Ny-Ålesund and Barrow.This discrepancy may result from varying contributions of anthropogenic and biomass burning(BB)emissions,given the strong influence by BC from BB emissions at Barrow.Arctic BC deposition significantly influences regional climate change in the Arctic,increasing fire activities in the Arctic have made BB source of Arctic BC more crucial.On average,BC in Arctic snow and ice causes an increase of+0.17 W·m^(–2)in radiative forcing and 8 Gt·a^(–1)in runoff in Greenland.As stressed in the latest Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme report,reliable source information and long-term and high-resolution observations on Arctic BC deposition will be crucial for a more comprehensive understanding and a better mitigation strategy of Arctic BC.In the future,it is necessary to collect more observations on BC deposition and the corresponding physical processes(e.g.,snow/ice melting,surface energy balance)in the Arctic to provide reliable data for understanding and clarifying the mechanism of the climatic impacts of BC deposition on Arctic snow and ice.展开更多
Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning ...Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce.In this study,we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning(monotonic,interruption,and reversal)through the breaks for the additive season and trend(BFAST)method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022.It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs(ERPs)and climate change on these vegetation trends.We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands.Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening(29.8%)and greening with setback(36.8%),whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal(19.2%).The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr,which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback,0.0078/yr.This research highlights that,under the background of widespread vegetation greening,vegetation browning is pro-gressively increasing due to the effects of climate change.Furthermore,the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage,with the increase rate in 2000-2022 being twice as much as that of 1982-1999 in reveg-etation regions.Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances,which offset the efforts of ERPs.展开更多
Ice and snow tourism in China has grown significantly since the country successfully hosted the Beijing Winter Olympics.Climatic conditions profoundly impact the development of ice and snow tourism;however,most studie...Ice and snow tourism in China has grown significantly since the country successfully hosted the Beijing Winter Olympics.Climatic conditions profoundly impact the development of ice and snow tourism;however,most studies have focused on constructing different climate suitability indicators for ice and snow tourism to evaluate individual regions,lacking horizontal comparative studies across multiple regions.This study aims to enrich the connotation of climate suitability for ice and snow sports,establish an evaluation model based on snowfall amount,temperature,and wind speed,and use daily meteorological data from 1991 to 2021 to horizontally compare the climate suitability for ice and snow sports in major ski tourism destinations in China.This study boasts four major findings:1)the average ice and snow sports climate index of each region decreases over time,and the overall suitability of the climate for ice and snow sports is reducing;2)northern Xinjiang exhibits the most evident regional differentiation from‘very suitable’to‘generally suitable’;3)the spatial zoning of climate suitability for ice and snow sports exhibits heterogeneity,as northern Xinjiang is divided into two‘suitable and above’zones with rotating empirical orthogonal function(REOF).Correspondingly,the four provinces of Hebei,Heilongjiang,Jilin,and Liaoning are divided into three‘generally suitable and above’zones;4)snowfall amount is the main factor affecting the climate suitability of ice and snow sports in the major ski tourist destinations in China.展开更多
Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation...Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation GPP provides insight into the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial carbon sinks,aiding efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.In this study,we utilized the precipitation and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and the simulated vegetation GPP using the eddy covariance-light use efficiency(EC-LUE)model to analyze the spatiotemporal change of GPP and its response to different drought indices in the Mongolian Plateau during 1982-2018.The main findings indicated that vegetation GPP decreased in 50.53% of the plateau,mainly in its northern and northeastern parts,while it increased in the remaining 49.47%area.Specifically,meadow steppe(78.92%)and deciduous forest(79.46%)witnessed a significant decrease in vegetation GPP,while alpine steppe(75.08%),cropland(76.27%),and sandy vegetation(87.88%)recovered well.Warming aridification areas accounted for 71.39% of the affected areas,while 28.53% of the areas underwent severe aridification,mainly located in the south and central regions.Notably,the warming aridification areas of desert steppe(92.68%)and sandy vegetation(90.24%)were significant.Climate warming was found to amplify the sensitivity of coniferous forest,deciduous forest,meadow steppe,and alpine steppe GPP to drought.Additionally,the drought sensitivity of vegetation GPP in the Mongolian Plateau gradually decreased as altitude increased.The cumulative effect of drought on vegetation GPP persisted for 3.00-8.00 months.The findings of this study will improve the understanding of how drought influences vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas.展开更多
In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the ...In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.展开更多
Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into...Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.展开更多
This study compared the differences in the wave climate in the South China Sea and North Indian Ocean under these two datasets:ERA-40 wave reanalysis and Mei’s hindcast wave data.In the numerical calculation of regio...This study compared the differences in the wave climate in the South China Sea and North Indian Ocean under these two datasets:ERA-40 wave reanalysis and Mei’s hindcast wave data.In the numerical calculation of regional ocean waves,the wave climate characteristics exhibited significant bias if the influence of external swells(swells from afar)was not fully considered,which may provide an incorrect basis for global climate change analysis.1)The trends of the significant wave height(SWH)obtained from the two datasets showed significant differences,such as those of the Bay of Bengal and the Java Sea in June-July-August.For the past 45 years,SWH from ERA-40(SWH-ERA)exhibited a significant annual increase in low-latitude waters of the North Indian Ocean(0.2-0.6 cm yr^(-1))and South China Sea(0.2-0.8 cm yr^(-1)).2)In the Bay of Bengal,the SWH-ERA in each month was generally 0.5 m higher than the SWH from Mei’s hindcast wave data(SWH-Mei)and can reach 1.0 m higher in some months.3)In the Bay of Bengal,SWH-ERA and SWH-Mei increased significantly at annual rates of 0.13 and 0.27 cm yr^(-1),respectively.This increasing trend was mainly reflected after 1978.SWH-ERA showed a trough in 1975(1.33 m)and a crest in 1992(1.83 m),which were not reflected in SWH-Mei.展开更多
Tree radial growth can have significantly differ-ent responses to climate change depending on the environ-ment.To elucidate the effects of climate on radial growth and stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C)fractionation of Q...Tree radial growth can have significantly differ-ent responses to climate change depending on the environ-ment.To elucidate the effects of climate on radial growth and stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C)fractionation of Qing-hai spruce(Picea crassifolia),a widely distributed native conifer in northwestern China in different environments,we developed chronologies for tree-ring widths and δ^(13)C in trees on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains,and analysed the relationship between these tree-ring variables and major climatic factors.Tree-ring widths were strongly influenced by climatic factors early in the growing season,and the radial growth in trees on the northern slopes was more sensitive to climate than in trees on the southern.Tree-ring δ^(13)C was more sensitive to climate than radial growth.δ^(13)C fractionation was mainly influenced by summer temperature and precipitation early in the growing season.Stomatal conductance more strongly limited stable carbon isotope fractionation in tree rings than photosynthetic rate did.The response between tree rings and climate in mountains gradually weakened as climate warmed.Changes in radial growth and stable carbon isotope fractionation of P.crassifolia in response to climate in the Qilian Mountains may be further complicated by continued climate change.展开更多
West Africa was hit by an unprecedented drought in the 1970’s and 1980’s years, with dramatic consequences for surface and groundwater resources. In the context of climate change, there are many studies for the pred...West Africa was hit by an unprecedented drought in the 1970’s and 1980’s years, with dramatic consequences for surface and groundwater resources. In the context of climate change, there are many studies for the prediction of the increase in the occurrence of these droughts. To predict this situation in the Senegalese region, it is necessary to use regional climate models, which carrying out the study. This work deals with the interest to examine the capacity of the RCMs (regional climate models) in order to reproduce the deficit on the 1970’s year rainfall in Senegal. In this work, we used daily precipitation data from five (5) regional climate models to characterize the droughts in Senegal by using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) on different time scales (3, 6, 12 and 24 months). For this purpose, the index was calculated over two distinct periods: 1951-1969 and 1970-1990. The results show that the period 1970-1990 was drier than the period 1951-1969. For the zonal average, the results show that the North of Senegal was more affected by this deficit rainfall than the South part. The analysis of the interannual variability of rainfall for some stations in Senegal shows that the drought did not start at the same time throughout the zone.展开更多
This paper provides a method of the process of computation called the cumulative method, it is based upon repeated cumulative process. The cumulative method is being adapted to the purposes of computation, particularl...This paper provides a method of the process of computation called the cumulative method, it is based upon repeated cumulative process. The cumulative method is being adapted to the purposes of computation, particularly multiplication and division. The operations of multiplication and division are represented by algebraic formulas. An advantage of the method is that the cumulative process can be performed on decimal numbers. The present paper aims to establish a basic and useful formula valid for the two fundamental arithmetic operations of multiplication and division. The new cumulative method proved to be more flexible and made it possible to extend the multiplication and division based on repeated addition/subtraction to decimal numbers.展开更多
Climate change is the phrase used to describe long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Changes in the atmosphere and their interactions with diverse geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic variab...Climate change is the phrase used to describe long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Changes in the atmosphere and their interactions with diverse geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic variables are the main contributors to this cyclical adjustment of the Earth’s climate. Such changes may be induced purposefully, because of burning fossil fuels, clearing forests, and raising animals, or they may be natural, brought on by significant volcanic eruptions or variations in the sun’s activity. By significantly increasing the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, this heightens the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. This work includes several additional theoretical and practical explanations of sustainable development. The theoretical work encompasses hundreds of researches that identify requirements for how development routes might satisfy sustainable development (SD) criteria using economic theory, complex systems approach, ecological science, and other techniques. The agreements made by the Parties in various nations across the world will consider a wide range of perspectives about what would be considered undesirable effects on the environment, the climate system, sustainability, economic growth, or food production.展开更多
This research paper aims to draw a relationship between lung cancer and climate change. With the rise of climate change in the last few decades, many organizations and people are concerned about the future of the worl...This research paper aims to draw a relationship between lung cancer and climate change. With the rise of climate change in the last few decades, many organizations and people are concerned about the future of the world. Climate change has many side effects, such as air pollution, which can increase the incidence and death rates of lung and bronchus cancer. This paper aims to draw the relationship between climate change factors and lung cancer incidence and mortality rates. The main finding of this analysis was that there is a positive relationship between lung cancer incidence, death rates, and climate change indicators. The findings from this study have the potential to inform targeted public health interventions and policies, emphasizing the need for proactive strategies in mitigating the health impacts of a changing climate. Section 2 of this paper is a literature review and focuses on the findings of other scholars in this field. Section 3 of this paper is Methods and Processes and will highlight the steps used to create the program and get the results. Section 4 of this paper is Results and Analysis, and will go over the results produced by the machine learning algorithm, and will present graphs and visualizations regarding the relationship of the dependent and independent variables. The final section, Section 5, is Limitations and Conclusion, in which we will discuss possible limitations to both my dataset and my model, and will conclude the paper by presenting a big-picture view of these problems in our society.展开更多
This review focuses on major contemporary empirical studies that examine both the physical and regulatory sides of climate risk. These studies explore how climate risk affects firms’ operating performance and leverag...This review focuses on major contemporary empirical studies that examine both the physical and regulatory sides of climate risk. These studies explore how climate risk affects firms’ operating performance and leverage, stock and bond valuation, cost of capital, and managerial behavior. We also discuss how the effect of climate risk on real estate markets depends on individuals’ beliefs about climate change. Furthermore, we summarize papers on climate risk activism and how firms can employ financial devices and technology to mitigate their climate risk. Finally, we make some recommendations for further research areas.展开更多
Potato cyst nematodes(PCNs)are a significant threat to potato production,having caused substantial damage in many countries.Predicting the future distribution of PCN species is crucial to implementing effective biosec...Potato cyst nematodes(PCNs)are a significant threat to potato production,having caused substantial damage in many countries.Predicting the future distribution of PCN species is crucial to implementing effective biosecurity strategies,especially given the impact of climate change on pest species invasion and distribution.Machine learning(ML),specifically ensemble models,has emerged as a powerful tool in predicting species distributions due to its ability to learn and make predictions based on complex data sets.Thus,this research utilised advanced machine learning techniques to predict the distribution of PCN species under climate change conditions,providing the initial element for invasion risk assessment.We first used Global Climate Models to generate homogeneous climate predictors to mitigate the variation among predictors.Then,five machine learning models were employed to build two groups of ensembles,single-algorithm ensembles(ESA)and multi-algorithm ensembles(EMA),and compared their performances.In this research,the EMA did not always perform better than the ESA,and the ESA of Artificial Neural Network gave the highest performance while being cost-effective.Prediction results indicated that the distribution range of PCNs would shift northward with a decrease in tropical zones and an increase in northern latitudes.However,the total area of suitable regions will not change significantly,occupying 16-20%of the total land surface(18%under current conditions).This research alerts policymakers and practitioners to the risk of PCNs’incursion into new regions.Additionally,this ML process offers the capability to track changes in the distribution of various species and provides scientifically grounded evidence for formulating long-term biosecurity plans for their control.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42141019 and 42261144687)and STEP(Grant No.2019QZKK0102)supported by the Korea Environmental Industry&Technology Institute(KEITI)through the“Project for developing an observation-based GHG emissions geospatial information map”,funded by the Korea Ministry of Environment(MOE)(Grant No.RS-2023-00232066).
文摘Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related challenges.Amid this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of physics in climate science has occasionally been overlooked.Our perspective suggests that the future of climate modeling involves a synergistic partnership between AI and physics,rather than an“either/or”scenario.Scrutinizing controversies around current physical inconsistencies in large AI models,we stress the critical need for detailed dynamic diagnostics and physical constraints.Furthermore,we provide illustrative examples to guide future assessments and constraints for AI models.Regarding AI integration with numerical models,we argue that offline AI parameterization schemes may fall short of achieving global optimality,emphasizing the importance of constructing online schemes.Additionally,we highlight the significance of fostering a community culture and propose the OCR(Open,Comparable,Reproducible)principles.Through a better community culture and a deep integration of physics and AI,we contend that developing a learnable climate model,balancing AI and physics,is an achievable goal.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 42076202, 42122046, 42206208 and 42261134536)the Open Research Cruise NORC2022-10+NORC2022-303 supported by NSFC shiptime Sharing Projects 42149910+7 种基金the new Cornerstone Science Foundation through the XPLORER PRIZE, DAMO Academy Young Fellow, Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of SciencesNational Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility” (EarthLab)sponsored by the US National Science Foundationsupported by NASA Awards 80NSSC17K0565, 80NSSC21K1191, and 80NSSC22K0046by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via National Science Foundation IA 1947282supported by NOAA (Grant No. NA19NES4320002 to CISESS-MD at the University of Maryland)supported by the Young Talent Support Project of Guangzhou Association for Science and Technologyfunded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in agreement between INGV, ENEA, and GNV SpA shipping company that provides hospitality on its commercial vessels
文摘The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m ocean heat content(OHC)reached record highs.The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15±10 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules=1021 Joules)(updated IAP/CAS data);9±5 ZJ(NCEI/NOAA data).The Tropical Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea,and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s.Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño,the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of~0.23℃ higher than 2022 and an astounding>0.3℃ above 2022 values for the second half of 2023.The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program[grant number 2019QZKK0102]the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number 060GJHZ2023079GC].
文摘Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.
基金This research was funded by National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFA0605601)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42077417,41671042).
文摘A set of standard chronologies for tree-ring width(TRW),earlywood width(EWW)and latewood width(LWW)in Pinus tabuliformis Carr.along an altitudi-nal gradient(1450,1400,and 1350 m a.s.l.)on Baiyunshan Mountain,Central China to analyze the effect of varying temperature and precipitation on growth along the gradi-ent.Correlation analyses showed that at all three altitudes and the TRW and EWW chronologies generally had signifi-cant negative correlations with mean and maximum tem-peratures in the current April and May and with minimum temperatures in the prior July and August,but significant positive correlations with precipitation in the current May.Correlations were generally significantly negative between LWW chronologies and all temperatures in the prior July and August,indicating that the prior summer temperature had a strong lag effect on the growth of P.tabuliformis that increased with altitude.The correlation with the standard-ized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)confirmed that wet conditions in the current May promoted growth of TR and EW at all altitudes.Significant altitudinal differences were also found;at 1400 m,there were significant positive correlations between EWW chronologies and SPEI in the current April and significant negative correlations between LWW chronologies and SPEI in the current September,but these correlations were not significant at 1450 m.At 1350 m,there were also significant negative correlations between the TRW and the EWW chronologies and SPEI in the prior October and the current July and between LWW chronology and SPEI in the current August,but these cor-relations were not significant at 1400 m.Moving correlation results showed a stable response of EWW in relation to the SPEI in the current May at all three altitudes and of LWW to maximum temperature in the prior July-August at 1400 m from 2002 to 2018.The EWW chronology at 1400 m and the LWW chronology at 1450 m were identified as more suitable for climate reconstruction.These results provide a strong scientific basis for forest management decisions and climate reconstructions in Central China.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.42041006,41790443 and 41927806).
文摘The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.
基金supported by the Second Comprehensive Scientific Research Survey on the Tibetan Plateau[grant number 2019QZKK0103]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42375071 and 42230610].
文摘The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau,is a typical example.To understand the carbon and water fluxes,water use efficiency(WUE),and their responses to future climate change for the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Dangxiong area,two parameter estimation methods,the Model-independent Parameter Estimation(PEST)and the Dynamic Dimensions Search(DDS),were used to optimize the Biome-BGC model.Then,the gross primary productivity(GPP)and evapotranspiration(ET)were simulated.The results show that the DDS parameter calibration method has a better performance.The annual GPP and ET show an increasing trend,while the WUE shows a decreasing trend.Meanwhile,ET and GPP reach their peaks in July and August,respectively,and WUE shows a“dual-peak”pattern,reaching peaks in May and November.Furthermore,according to the simulation results for the next nearly 100 years,the ensemble average GPP and ET exhibit a significant increasing trend,and the growth rate under the SSP5–8.5 scenario is greater than that under the SSP2–4.5 scenario.WUE shows an increasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and a significant increasing trend under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.This study has important scientific significance for carbon and water cycle prediction and vegetation ecological protection on the Tibetan Plateau.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant nos.2022YFC2807203,2022YFB2302701).
文摘The rapid warming of the Arctic,accompanied by glacier and sea ice melt,has significant consequences for the Earth’s climate,ecosystems,and economy.Black carbon(BC)deposition on snow and ice can trigger a significant reduction in snow albedo and accelerate melting of snow and ice in the Arctic.By reviewing the published literatures over the past decades,this work provides an overview of the progress in both the measurement and modeling of BC deposition and its impact on Arctic climate change.In summary,the maximum value of BC deposition appears in the western Russian Arctic(26 ng·g^(–1)),and the minimum value appears in Greenland(3 ng·g^(–1)).BC records in the Arctic ice core already peaked in 1920s and 1970s,and shows a regional difference between Greenland and Canadian Arctic.The different temporal variations of Arctic BC ice core records in different regions are closely related to the large variability of BC emissions and transportation processes across the Arctic region.Model simulations usually underestimate the concentration of BC in snow and ice by 2–3 times,and cannot accurately reflect the seasonal and regional changes in BC deposition.Wet deposition is the main removal mechanism of BC in the Arctic,and observations show different seasonal variations in BC wet deposition in Ny-Ålesund and Barrow.This discrepancy may result from varying contributions of anthropogenic and biomass burning(BB)emissions,given the strong influence by BC from BB emissions at Barrow.Arctic BC deposition significantly influences regional climate change in the Arctic,increasing fire activities in the Arctic have made BB source of Arctic BC more crucial.On average,BC in Arctic snow and ice causes an increase of+0.17 W·m^(–2)in radiative forcing and 8 Gt·a^(–1)in runoff in Greenland.As stressed in the latest Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme report,reliable source information and long-term and high-resolution observations on Arctic BC deposition will be crucial for a more comprehensive understanding and a better mitigation strategy of Arctic BC.In the future,it is necessary to collect more observations on BC deposition and the corresponding physical processes(e.g.,snow/ice melting,surface energy balance)in the Arctic to provide reliable data for understanding and clarifying the mechanism of the climatic impacts of BC deposition on Arctic snow and ice.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.41991231,42041004,and 41888101)the China University Research Talents Recruitment Program(111 project,Grant No.B13045).
文摘Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce.In this study,we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning(monotonic,interruption,and reversal)through the breaks for the additive season and trend(BFAST)method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022.It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs(ERPs)and climate change on these vegetation trends.We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands.Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening(29.8%)and greening with setback(36.8%),whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal(19.2%).The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr,which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback,0.0078/yr.This research highlights that,under the background of widespread vegetation greening,vegetation browning is pro-gressively increasing due to the effects of climate change.Furthermore,the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage,with the increase rate in 2000-2022 being twice as much as that of 1982-1999 in reveg-etation regions.Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances,which offset the efforts of ERPs.
基金Under the auspices of the Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(No.2022D01C372)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42261041)+1 种基金Major Key Programs of Philosophy and Social Sciences in Xinjiang University(No.22APY016)Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Federation of Social Sciences Project Key Project(No.2023ZJFLW10)。
文摘Ice and snow tourism in China has grown significantly since the country successfully hosted the Beijing Winter Olympics.Climatic conditions profoundly impact the development of ice and snow tourism;however,most studies have focused on constructing different climate suitability indicators for ice and snow tourism to evaluate individual regions,lacking horizontal comparative studies across multiple regions.This study aims to enrich the connotation of climate suitability for ice and snow sports,establish an evaluation model based on snowfall amount,temperature,and wind speed,and use daily meteorological data from 1991 to 2021 to horizontally compare the climate suitability for ice and snow sports in major ski tourism destinations in China.This study boasts four major findings:1)the average ice and snow sports climate index of each region decreases over time,and the overall suitability of the climate for ice and snow sports is reducing;2)northern Xinjiang exhibits the most evident regional differentiation from‘very suitable’to‘generally suitable’;3)the spatial zoning of climate suitability for ice and snow sports exhibits heterogeneity,as northern Xinjiang is divided into two‘suitable and above’zones with rotating empirical orthogonal function(REOF).Correspondingly,the four provinces of Hebei,Heilongjiang,Jilin,and Liaoning are divided into three‘generally suitable and above’zones;4)snowfall amount is the main factor affecting the climate suitability of ice and snow sports in the major ski tourist destinations in China.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42361024,42101030,42261079,and 41961058)the Talent Project of Science and Technology in Inner Mongolia of China(NJYT22027 and NJYT23019)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Inner Mongolia Normal University,China(2022JBBJ014 and 2022JBQN093)。
文摘Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation GPP provides insight into the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial carbon sinks,aiding efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.In this study,we utilized the precipitation and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and the simulated vegetation GPP using the eddy covariance-light use efficiency(EC-LUE)model to analyze the spatiotemporal change of GPP and its response to different drought indices in the Mongolian Plateau during 1982-2018.The main findings indicated that vegetation GPP decreased in 50.53% of the plateau,mainly in its northern and northeastern parts,while it increased in the remaining 49.47%area.Specifically,meadow steppe(78.92%)and deciduous forest(79.46%)witnessed a significant decrease in vegetation GPP,while alpine steppe(75.08%),cropland(76.27%),and sandy vegetation(87.88%)recovered well.Warming aridification areas accounted for 71.39% of the affected areas,while 28.53% of the areas underwent severe aridification,mainly located in the south and central regions.Notably,the warming aridification areas of desert steppe(92.68%)and sandy vegetation(90.24%)were significant.Climate warming was found to amplify the sensitivity of coniferous forest,deciduous forest,meadow steppe,and alpine steppe GPP to drought.Additionally,the drought sensitivity of vegetation GPP in the Mongolian Plateau gradually decreased as altitude increased.The cumulative effect of drought on vegetation GPP persisted for 3.00-8.00 months.The findings of this study will improve the understanding of how drought influences vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas.
文摘In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.
文摘Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.
基金supported by the open fund project of Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,Ocean University of China(No.kloe201901)the State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research(No.SKLEC-KF201707).
文摘This study compared the differences in the wave climate in the South China Sea and North Indian Ocean under these two datasets:ERA-40 wave reanalysis and Mei’s hindcast wave data.In the numerical calculation of regional ocean waves,the wave climate characteristics exhibited significant bias if the influence of external swells(swells from afar)was not fully considered,which may provide an incorrect basis for global climate change analysis.1)The trends of the significant wave height(SWH)obtained from the two datasets showed significant differences,such as those of the Bay of Bengal and the Java Sea in June-July-August.For the past 45 years,SWH from ERA-40(SWH-ERA)exhibited a significant annual increase in low-latitude waters of the North Indian Ocean(0.2-0.6 cm yr^(-1))and South China Sea(0.2-0.8 cm yr^(-1)).2)In the Bay of Bengal,the SWH-ERA in each month was generally 0.5 m higher than the SWH from Mei’s hindcast wave data(SWH-Mei)and can reach 1.0 m higher in some months.3)In the Bay of Bengal,SWH-ERA and SWH-Mei increased significantly at annual rates of 0.13 and 0.27 cm yr^(-1),respectively.This increasing trend was mainly reflected after 1978.SWH-ERA showed a trough in 1975(1.33 m)and a crest in 1992(1.83 m),which were not reflected in SWH-Mei.
基金supported by Basic Research Operating Expenses of the Central level Non-profit Research Institutes (IDM2022003)National Natural Science Foundation of China (42375054)+2 种基金Regional collaborative innovation project of Xinjiang (2021E01022,2022E01045)Young Meteorological Talent Program of China Meteorological Administration,Tianshan Talent Program of Xinjiang (2022TSYCCX0003)Youth Innovation Team of China Meteorological Administration (CMA2023QN08).
文摘Tree radial growth can have significantly differ-ent responses to climate change depending on the environ-ment.To elucidate the effects of climate on radial growth and stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C)fractionation of Qing-hai spruce(Picea crassifolia),a widely distributed native conifer in northwestern China in different environments,we developed chronologies for tree-ring widths and δ^(13)C in trees on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains,and analysed the relationship between these tree-ring variables and major climatic factors.Tree-ring widths were strongly influenced by climatic factors early in the growing season,and the radial growth in trees on the northern slopes was more sensitive to climate than in trees on the southern.Tree-ring δ^(13)C was more sensitive to climate than radial growth.δ^(13)C fractionation was mainly influenced by summer temperature and precipitation early in the growing season.Stomatal conductance more strongly limited stable carbon isotope fractionation in tree rings than photosynthetic rate did.The response between tree rings and climate in mountains gradually weakened as climate warmed.Changes in radial growth and stable carbon isotope fractionation of P.crassifolia in response to climate in the Qilian Mountains may be further complicated by continued climate change.
文摘West Africa was hit by an unprecedented drought in the 1970’s and 1980’s years, with dramatic consequences for surface and groundwater resources. In the context of climate change, there are many studies for the prediction of the increase in the occurrence of these droughts. To predict this situation in the Senegalese region, it is necessary to use regional climate models, which carrying out the study. This work deals with the interest to examine the capacity of the RCMs (regional climate models) in order to reproduce the deficit on the 1970’s year rainfall in Senegal. In this work, we used daily precipitation data from five (5) regional climate models to characterize the droughts in Senegal by using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) on different time scales (3, 6, 12 and 24 months). For this purpose, the index was calculated over two distinct periods: 1951-1969 and 1970-1990. The results show that the period 1970-1990 was drier than the period 1951-1969. For the zonal average, the results show that the North of Senegal was more affected by this deficit rainfall than the South part. The analysis of the interannual variability of rainfall for some stations in Senegal shows that the drought did not start at the same time throughout the zone.
文摘This paper provides a method of the process of computation called the cumulative method, it is based upon repeated cumulative process. The cumulative method is being adapted to the purposes of computation, particularly multiplication and division. The operations of multiplication and division are represented by algebraic formulas. An advantage of the method is that the cumulative process can be performed on decimal numbers. The present paper aims to establish a basic and useful formula valid for the two fundamental arithmetic operations of multiplication and division. The new cumulative method proved to be more flexible and made it possible to extend the multiplication and division based on repeated addition/subtraction to decimal numbers.
文摘Climate change is the phrase used to describe long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Changes in the atmosphere and their interactions with diverse geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic variables are the main contributors to this cyclical adjustment of the Earth’s climate. Such changes may be induced purposefully, because of burning fossil fuels, clearing forests, and raising animals, or they may be natural, brought on by significant volcanic eruptions or variations in the sun’s activity. By significantly increasing the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, this heightens the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. This work includes several additional theoretical and practical explanations of sustainable development. The theoretical work encompasses hundreds of researches that identify requirements for how development routes might satisfy sustainable development (SD) criteria using economic theory, complex systems approach, ecological science, and other techniques. The agreements made by the Parties in various nations across the world will consider a wide range of perspectives about what would be considered undesirable effects on the environment, the climate system, sustainability, economic growth, or food production.
文摘This research paper aims to draw a relationship between lung cancer and climate change. With the rise of climate change in the last few decades, many organizations and people are concerned about the future of the world. Climate change has many side effects, such as air pollution, which can increase the incidence and death rates of lung and bronchus cancer. This paper aims to draw the relationship between climate change factors and lung cancer incidence and mortality rates. The main finding of this analysis was that there is a positive relationship between lung cancer incidence, death rates, and climate change indicators. The findings from this study have the potential to inform targeted public health interventions and policies, emphasizing the need for proactive strategies in mitigating the health impacts of a changing climate. Section 2 of this paper is a literature review and focuses on the findings of other scholars in this field. Section 3 of this paper is Methods and Processes and will highlight the steps used to create the program and get the results. Section 4 of this paper is Results and Analysis, and will go over the results produced by the machine learning algorithm, and will present graphs and visualizations regarding the relationship of the dependent and independent variables. The final section, Section 5, is Limitations and Conclusion, in which we will discuss possible limitations to both my dataset and my model, and will conclude the paper by presenting a big-picture view of these problems in our society.
文摘This review focuses on major contemporary empirical studies that examine both the physical and regulatory sides of climate risk. These studies explore how climate risk affects firms’ operating performance and leverage, stock and bond valuation, cost of capital, and managerial behavior. We also discuss how the effect of climate risk on real estate markets depends on individuals’ beliefs about climate change. Furthermore, we summarize papers on climate risk activism and how firms can employ financial devices and technology to mitigate their climate risk. Finally, we make some recommendations for further research areas.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(2021YFD1400200)the Taishan Scholar Constructive Engineering Foundation of Shandong,China(tstp20221135)。
文摘Potato cyst nematodes(PCNs)are a significant threat to potato production,having caused substantial damage in many countries.Predicting the future distribution of PCN species is crucial to implementing effective biosecurity strategies,especially given the impact of climate change on pest species invasion and distribution.Machine learning(ML),specifically ensemble models,has emerged as a powerful tool in predicting species distributions due to its ability to learn and make predictions based on complex data sets.Thus,this research utilised advanced machine learning techniques to predict the distribution of PCN species under climate change conditions,providing the initial element for invasion risk assessment.We first used Global Climate Models to generate homogeneous climate predictors to mitigate the variation among predictors.Then,five machine learning models were employed to build two groups of ensembles,single-algorithm ensembles(ESA)and multi-algorithm ensembles(EMA),and compared their performances.In this research,the EMA did not always perform better than the ESA,and the ESA of Artificial Neural Network gave the highest performance while being cost-effective.Prediction results indicated that the distribution range of PCNs would shift northward with a decrease in tropical zones and an increase in northern latitudes.However,the total area of suitable regions will not change significantly,occupying 16-20%of the total land surface(18%under current conditions).This research alerts policymakers and practitioners to the risk of PCNs’incursion into new regions.Additionally,this ML process offers the capability to track changes in the distribution of various species and provides scientifically grounded evidence for formulating long-term biosecurity plans for their control.