Mapping Climate Services for Disaster Risk Management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.

Best Practices and Lessons Learned in the Implementation of Global Framework for Climate Services—Adaptation Programme in Africa: Tanzania-Experience

This paper provides an analysis and a description of the best practices and lessons learned in the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services Adaptation Program in Africa (GFCS-APA) focusing on Tanzania country’s activities. GFCS-APA was the first multi-agency initiative implemented under the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) in two African countries, namely Tanzania and Malawi with funding from the Royal Government of Norway. In Tanzania, the programme was implemented in two phases from the year 2014 to 2021 in the three pilot districts of Kondoa, Longido and Kiteto located in Dodoma, Arusha and Manyara regions, respectively. The overarching goal of the programme was to enable better management of the risks caused by climate variability and change at all levels, from end-users to policy level, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction services into planning, policy and practice. The programme focused on bridging the gap between providers and users of climate information and products through development of user-driven climate services for food security, health and disaster risk reduction. This paper aimed to analyze lessons learned and best practices in the course of the implementation of the GFCS-APA phase I and II in Tanzania. A qualitative approach was employed to analyze the lessons learned and best practices, by extracting them and exploring further on their contribution to the enhancement of climate services, as well as their applicability and potentiality for scaling out in other regions within Tanzania, and in other countries. The results indicate the identified best practices and lessons learned contributed significantly in enhancing climate services, particularly in understanding, availability, accessibility, utilization, ownership and sustainability of climate services among users (farmers and pastoralists) of various gender, as well as intermediaries and decision-makers. Results also indicate the lessons learned and the documented best practices could influence the effectiveness of climate services in other areas, to address existing challenges in access, uptake and sustainability of climate services. The best practices and lessons learned could be considered for integration in the future projects or operational activities in other regions within the country and other countries, particularly in the developing world, including Sub-Saharan Africa.

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service

Rainfall forecasts for the summer monsoon season in the Yangtze River basin(YRB) allow decision-makers to plan for possible flooding, which can affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. A trial climate service was developed in 2016, producing a prototype seasonal forecast product for use by stakeholders in the region, based on rainfall forecasts directly from a dynamical model. Here, we describe an improved service based on a simple statistical downscaling approach. Through using dynamical forecast of an East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) index, seasonal mean rainfall for the upper and middle/lower reaches of YRB can be forecast separately by use of the statistical downscaling, with significant skills for lead times of up to at least three months. The skill in different sub-basin regions of YRB varies with the target season. The rainfall forecast skill in the middle/lower reaches of YRB is significant in May–June–July(MJJ), and the forecast skill for rainfall in the upper reaches of YRB is significant in June–July–August(JJA). The mean rainfall for the basin as a whole can be skillfully forecast in both MJJ and JJA. The forecasts issued in 2019 gave good guidance for the enhanced rainfall in the MJJ period and the near-average conditions in JJA. Initial feedback from users in the basin suggests that the improved forecasts better meet their needs and will enable more robust decision-making.

The Process and Benefits of Developing Prototype Climate Services——Examples in China

Changes in climate pose major challenges to society, and so decision-makers need actionable climate information to inform their planning and policies to make society more resilient to climatic changes. Climate services are being developed to provide such actionable climate information. The successful development and use of climate services benefits greatly from close engagement between developers, providers, and users of the services. The Climate Science for Service Partnership China(CSSP China) is a China–UK collaboration fostering closer engagement between climate scientists, providers of climate services, and users of climate services. We describe the process within CSSP China of co-developing climate services through trials with users to revise and improve a prototype. Examples are provided covering various scientific capabilities, user needs, and parts of China. The development process is yielding many benefits, such as increasing the engagement between providers and users, making users more aware of how climate information can be of use in their decision-making, giving the climate service providers a better understanding of the users’ requirements for climate information, and shaping future scientific research and development. In addition to the benefits, we also document some challenges that have emerged, along with ways of alleviating them. We have two key recommendations from our experiences: make the time and space for effective engagement between the users and developers of any climate service;bring the needs of the users in to the design and delivery of the climate service as early as possible and throughout the development cycle.

Communicating Uncertainty in Climate Information for China: Recommendations and Lessons Learned for Climate Services

Uncertainty is an inherent characteristic of climate forecasts and projections. While there is an expanding body of international research on identifying what climate information users need to know about uncertainty, and how this should be communicated, very little of this has been conducted in a Chinese cultural context. In this paper, we report on the findings of interviews with climate experts(n = 28) and(potential) users of climate information in China(n =18) at seasonal and multidecadal timescales, with the objective of addressing the following research questions:(1)What information about uncertainty in climate forecasts and projections is currently provided to users in China?(2)What do climate experts believe that users need to know about uncertainty?(3) What information about uncertainty would(potential) users like to receive?(4) What challenges do providers and users perceive with respect to the communication of uncertainty? We find that while seasonal forecasts are predominantly presented deterministically, current and potential users are aware that there is uncertainty associated with them. Climate experts highlight the probabilistic nature of forecasts and the conditional nature of forecast quality, as areas for communication development. Interviews with(potential) users indicate that(1) preferences for deterministic information are not unanimous;(2) probabilities associated with conditions being above/below normal may only be considered useful for decision-making if they are > 60%;and(3) forecasts that provide tailored statements on probability of user-relevant thresholds are preferred. At multidecadal timescales, we observe lower engagement with projections, and less evidence of interaction between providers and recipients, suggesting that development of climate services at multidecadal timescales will need to first highlight the added value of these. We present key recommendations for communicating uncertainty in seasonal forecasts and explore the potential value of multidecadal projections.

Climate services for addressing climate change: Indication of a climate livable city in China

China, like many countries, is under great pressure to reduce climate change and adapt to current situations while simultaneously undertaking economic development and transformation. This study takes advantage of climate opportunities and provides a new concept and mode of urban climate services in order to address climate change. Eighteen indicators based on climate and climate-related variables were used to provide an assessment, in the form of an index, of how livable a city is depending on prevailing climatic conditions. The resulting index can also be used to investigate how recent and future changes in the climatic conditions could affect livability. All Chinese cities and regions share the common goals of promoting low-carbon development, improving resilience against climate change, and integrating economic growth with climate actions. Climate services have been developed in China to provide decision-makers this measure of livability. Such a move facilitates sustainable development alongside economic growth by aiding government efforts in climate adaptation and low-carbon development. Our approach represents multidisciplinary and demand-driven research on adaptation to and the impacts of regional climate change, thereby transforming climate science into a climate service and ensuring that climate information can be provided in a scientific, practical, and customized way for policy-makers. The outputs can be used locally to take concrete climate actions and integrate climate services into decision-making processes.

Translational Science for Climate Services: Mapping and Understanding Users' Climate Service Needs in CSSP China

The Climate Science for Service Partnership China(CSSP China) is a joint program between China and the United Kingdom to build the basis for climate services to support the weather and climate resilient economic development and welfare in China. Work Package 5(WP5) provides the translational science on identification of: different users and providers, and their mandates;factors contributing to communication gaps and capacities between various users and providers;and mechanisms to work through such issues to develop and/or evolve a range of climate services.Key findings to emerge include that users from different sectors have varying capacities, requirements, and needs for information in their decision contexts, with a current strong preference for weather information. Separating climate and weather services when engaging users is often not constructive. Furthermore, there is a need to move to a service delivery model that is more user-driven and science informed;having sound climate science is not enough to develop services that are credible, salient, reliable, or timely for diverse user groups. Greater investment in building the capacity of the research community supporting and providing climate services to conduct translational sciences and develop regular user engagement processes is much needed. Such a move would help support the China Meteorological Administration's(CMA) ongoing efforts to improve climate services. It would also assist in potentially linking a broader group of "super" users who currently act as providers and purveyors of climate services because they find the existing offerings are not relevant to their needs or cannot access CMA's services.

Climate Services for Water Resource Management in China: The Case Study of Danjiangkou Reservoir

The efficiencies and effectiveness of water resource management are inextricably linked to climate services. This study demonstrates a climate information service for Danjiangkou Reservoir, which is the largest artificial lake in Asia, facing mounting challenges for flood control, water storage, and water diversion. Unlike traditional water resource management on the basis of short-term weather forecast and runoff monitoring, subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)and annual climate predictions as well as long-term climate change projections were well used to support the decision makers in Danjiangkou Reservoir. The National Climate Center(NCC) has projected the changes of future climate and extreme events by dynamically downscaling the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5(CMIP5)projections to 25-km resolution for the long-term planning of water resource management in Danjiangkou Reservoir.Real-time climate predictions based on climate models and downscaling interpretation and application methods at different timescales were also provided to meet the specific needs of earlier predictions and spatial refinement for the short-term diversion of the reservoir. Our results show that such climate services facilitated the Diversion Center of Danjiangkou Reservoir(DCDR) to reasonably control the operational water level, increased the ecological water supply to the northern portion of China by 844 million m^(3), and reduced as much as 1.67 billion m^(3) of abandoned water in 2019. In the future, it is necessary to develop climate prediction methods to increase spatial and temporal resolutions and prediction skills, and enhance interactions between providers and users.

Mainstreaming the nexus approach in climate services will enable coherent local and regional climate policies

The current challenges that society faces call for actions fostering climate change adaptation and long-term sustainability grounded in effective policies. Consequently, to raise environmental resilience and sustain human wellbeing, we need to overhaul the policy-making process towards a ‘holistic approach’. The nexus approach has proven a valuable tool for identifying gaps and incoherencies in current policies, for understanding major interlinkages across sectors and scales, and for promoting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Nevertheless, a ‘silo approach’ to decision making currently prevails, thus achieving cross-sectoral and cross-scale harmonization still remains a challenge in policy-making. In response to this challenge, the next step in the science–policy–practice interface is to integrate the nexus approach in the ‘climate services’ arena, in order to support integrated policies. Climate services embody a bridge between researchers and stakeholders, and by supporting integrated policies they will ensure synergies between sectors and scales, reduce potential trade-offs, and enable co-benefits.

Meteorological and Climate Modelling Services Tailored to Viticulturists

Grape production is likewise inherently interconnected to climate and weather, and, although grapes may grow worldwide, premium wine-grape production occurs in Mediterranean-like climate ranges. Changes in climate and weather patterns are threatening premium wine-grapes, directly affecting the European wine industry. This is because grapevines are extremely sensitive to their surrounding environment, with seasonal variations in yield much higher than other common crops, such as cereals. With a view to making South European wine industry resilient to climate change, VISCA (Vineyards Integrated Smart Climate Application) project has deployed a Climate Service (CS) Decision Support System (DSS) tool that provides to wine producers with well-founded information to be able to apply correctly adaptation strategies on specific grape varieties and locations, and to achieve optimum production results (e.g., yield and quantity). In this paper we show the meteorological, seasonal and climatic models and data sets used to answer the viticulturist needs;from short-term and mid-term forecast to seasonal forecast and climate projections.

Development and Pull-through of Climate Science to Services in China

1. IntroductionThe impacts arising from climate change and climate variability pose major challenges to global and regional security and economic prosperity（UNFCCC,2015）.Some regions are more at risk than others, through heightened exposure to climatic hazards, and high vulnerability and exposure to such hazards. China, with its rapid economic development, large and growing population, and frequent occurrence of disasters associated with heavy rainfall, flooding, tropical cyclones,

Skill Assessment of Copernicus Climate Change Service Seasonal Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts over Iran

Medium to long-term precipitation forecasting plays a pivotal role in water resource management and development of warning systems.Recently,the Copernicus Climate Change Service(C3S)database has been releasing monthly forecasts for lead times of up to three months for public use.This study evaluated the ensemble forecasts of three C3S models over the period 1993-2017 in Iran’s eight classified precipitation clusters for one-to three-month lead times.Probabilistic and non-probabilistic criteria were used for evaluation.Furthermore,the skill of selected models was analyzed in dry and wet periods in different precipitation clusters.The results indicated that the models performed best in western precipitation clusters,while in the northern humid cluster the models had negative skill scores.All models were better at forecasting upper-tercile events in dry seasons and lower-tercile events in wet seasons.Moreover,with increasing lead time,the forecast skill of the models worsened.In terms of forecasting in dry and wet years,the forecasts of the models were generally close to observations,albeit they underestimated several severe dry periods and overestimated a few wet periods.Moreover,the multi-model forecasts generated via multivariate regression of the forecasts of the three models yielded better results compared with those of individual models.In general,the ECMWF and UKMO models were found to be appropriate for one-month-ahead precipitation forecasting in most clusters of Iran.For the clusters considered in Iran and for the long-range system versions considered,the Météo France model had lower skill than the other models.

Preface to Special Issue on Climate Science for Service Partnership China

This special issue of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences provides a selection of research highlights from the Climate Science for Service Partnership China （CSSP China）. This pioneering partnership between China and UK based researchers has broken new ground in the development of climate science for services. By accelerating and enhancing collaborative science, CSSP China has built a strong foundation for services to support climate and weather resilient economic development and social welfare in China and the UK. In presenting some of the collaborative work undertaken in the project, this special issue illustrates the advantages of a sustained and ambitious scientific partnership developing leading edge research to support the climate services of the future. In this preface, we describe the genesis of the CSSP China project to develop science for services, explain the structure of the project, and consider some of the potential legacies.

Progress and Perspectives of Ecosystem Services: A Review

According to the latest research of ecosystem service（ ES）,the background and connotation of ecosystem services were briefly summarized,the relationship among human activity,climate change,and biodiversity and ecosystem service function（ ESF） was synthetically analyzed,the research trends of ecosystem services function assessment（ ESFA） were discussed from multi-scale,and the perspectives was given based on the past studies. The ecological long-term location monitoring method based on the ESFA should be studied,evaluation index of ESFA should be further improved,and the ESF research on the arid region should be reinforced.

Service design for climate-smart agriculture

Holistic information systems for climate-smart agriculture demands the seamless integration of various categories of climate,meteorological and weather data.Any actor in the agricultural value chain may harness weather forecasts at the short and medium-range,local weather history,and prevailing climatic conditions,to inform decision-making.Weather is fundamental to many day-to-day operations,especially at farm-level,influencing decision-making at various spatial and temporal scales.Many operational decisions ideally require hyper-localized service provision.In practice,integrating weather information into decision-support services demands a comprehensive understanding of various categories of weather-related data,their genesis,as well as the specific standards and data formats used by the meteorological community.This paper considers the weather as a crucial context for the delivery of farm-level operational services in smart agriculture,highlighting critical issues for reflection by system designers during the service design and implementation phases.

Climate drivers of vector-borne diseases in Africa and their relevance to control programmes

Background:Climate-based disease forecasting has been proposed as a potential tool in climate change adaptation for the health sector.Here we explore the relevance of climate data,drivers and predictions for vector-borne disease control efforts in Africa.Methods:Using data from a number of sources we explore rainfall and temperature across the African continent,from seasonality to variability at annual,multi-decadal and timescales consistent with climate change.We give particular attention to three regions defined as WHO-TDR study zones in Western,Eastern and Southern Africa.Our analyses include 1)time scale decomposition to establish the relative importance of year-to-year,decadal and long term trends in rainfall and temperature;2)the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on rainfall and temperature at the Pan African scale;3)the impact of ENSO on the climate of Tanzania using high resolution climate products and 4)the potential predictability of the climate in different regions and seasons using Generalized Relative Operating Characteristics.We use these analyses to review the relevance of climate forecasts for applications in vector borne disease control across the continent.Results:Timescale decomposition revealed long term warming in all three regions of Africa-at the level of 0.1-0.3°C per decade.Decadal variations in rainfall were apparent in all regions and particularly pronounced in the Sahel and during the East African long rains(March-May).Year-to-year variability in both rainfall and temperature,in part associated with ENSO,were the dominant signal for climate variations on any timescale.Observed climate data and seasonal climate forecasts were identified as the most relevant sources of climate information for use in early warning systems for vector-borne diseases but the latter varied in skill by region and season.Conclusions:Adaptation to the vector-borne disease risks of climate variability and change is a priority for government and civil society in African countries.Understanding rainfall and temperature variations and trends at multiple timescales and their potential predictability is a necessary first step in the incorporation of relevant climate information into vector-borne disease control decision-making.

Reviewing the discoverability and accessibility to data and information products linked to Essential Climate Variables

Essential Climate Variables(ECVs)are geophysical records generated from systematic Earth Observations associated with climate variations,changes,and impacts.ECVs products support the data and information needs of international frameworks and policies such as the work of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).We map the main networks and initiatives publishing ECVs,by presenting an overview of existing satellite-based ECVs,their general data creation characteristics,discoverability and accessibility methods from an end-user perspective.We investigate key initiatives providing or coordinating access to ECV data records,such as the Global Climate Observing System(GCOS),the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites(CEOS),the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites(CGMS),Joint Working Group on Climate(WGClimate),the Remote Sensing Systems(REMSS),and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative(ESA CCI).We find that ECV data discovery and access is difficult and time consuming due to the lack of common data and metadata catalogues.In addition,the selection of fit-for-purpose data records by end-users requires the implementation of interoperable standards and scalable data infrastructures to allow the generation of tailored applications and datadriven information products in support of decision-making processes.

Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

Seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s.However,present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders:current operational products are mainly basin-scale information,while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making.To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward,this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone(TC)forecasting.In particular,this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Ni˜no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence,and multi-annual TC predictions.We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic,Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations.New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.

Nexus security： governance, innovation and the resilient city

Nexus security is a compound mix of ideas： reconciling human needs and wants with access to multiple resources; diversity of access to those resources and services; resilience in the face of weather- and climate- related variability; resilience likewise in the face of infrastructure failure; and the personal, individual sense of belonging. At the level of Systems Thinking there is a very close relationship between resilience in the behavior of natural （ecological） systems and resilience in the social dynamics of governance within communities, where such resilience establishes the viability of these communities over centuries, which in turn entails successful stewardship of the man-environment relationship. We use insights from this cross-system mapping -- across natural, built, and human systems -- to assess, first, the role of city governance in achieving nexus security （or not） and, second, the role of technological innovations in serving the same purpose. More specifically, eight principles, covering resilience and diversity of access to resources and services, are used to gauge security-enhancing features of city buildings and infrastructure. Case studies include new designs of resilient office blocks, nutrient （nitrogen and phosphorus） recovery systems for sanitation and waste- water treatment, and the reconstruction of urban parks for the provision of ecosystem services. Throughout the paper, matters of risk in the face of meteorological variability are prominent. We do not conclude, however, that the presence of risk implies nexus insecurity.