Characteristics of the spatiotemporal distribution of daily extreme temperature events in China:Minimum temperature records in different climate states against the background of the most probable temperature

Based on the skewed function,the most probable temperature is defined and the spatiotemporal distributions of the frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events in different climate states over China are investigated,where the climate states are referred to as State I,State II and State III,i.e.,the daily minimum temperature records of 1961-1990,1971-2000,and 1981-2009.The results show that in space the frequency of high temperature events in summer decreases clearly in the lower and middle reaches of the Yellow River in State I and that low temperature events decrease in northern China in State II.In the present state,the frequency of high temperature events increases significantly in most areas over China except the north east,while the frequency of low temperature events decreases mainly in north China and the regions between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River.The distributions of frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events are consistent in space.The analysis of time evolution of extreme events shows that the occurrence of high temperature events become higher with the change in state,while that of low temperature events decreases.High temperature events are becoming stronger as well and deserve to be paid special attention.

Sensitivity analysis of standardized precipitation index to climate state selection in China

In the calculation of the standardized precipitation index(SPI)index,it is necessary to select a certain period of precipitation samples as the reference climate state,and the SPI obtained by different reference climate states have different size.Therefore,the influence of different reference climate states on the accuracy of SPI calculation is worth analyzing.Based on the monthly precipitation data of 1184 stations in China from 1961 to 2010,the influence of the selection of the reference climatic state in the calculation of SPI was analyzed.Using 30 consecutive years as the duration of the reference climatic state,1961-2010 is divided into three periods 1961-1990,1971-2000.1981-2010.Taking the SPI obtained from the entire period as the standard value,the spatial distribution of SPI error and the accuracy of SPI classification based on each reference period were analyzed.Then,the resampling method was used to analyze the influence of time-continuous precipitation samples on the size of SPI.The results show that the SPI error of most sites is less than 0.2,and the accuracy of SPI classification is more than 80%.Although the errors of SPI mostly come from extreme drought and extremely wet,this does not affect the accuracy of the recognition of extreme drought and extremely wet.In most regions,it is reliable to calculate SPI based on the precipitation data of continuous 30 years,but the reliability of SPI is relatively low in areas with frequent drought.The results of the resampling analysis and 30-year sliding analysis show that the distribution parameters have noticeable turning characteristics,and the precipitation distribution parameters of nearly 85%stations had noticeable turning point before 1985,which led to the precipitation data of continuous 30 years easily overestimate the dry/wet.

The Analysis of NGOs' Organizational Ecosystem in Participating in Climate Change Issues in the United States

How many NGOs were there in the climate change field in the United States？ Who were they？ And what was the relationship between them？ In the United States,climate change was only a branch of environmental issues at the beginning; therefore there were no specific quantitative statistics and network analysis of NGOs in climate change. Diversity was an important feature of NGOs in American climate change fields,and it showed a complex organizational ecology through varieties of networks and interaction among organizations. In order to make a difference in climate field,Chinese NGOs firstly needed to improve and enhance their own abilities.

IAP/LASG全球海-陆-气耦合系统模式的纬向平均大气气候态分析(英文)

The results of four versions of IAP/LASG Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (GOALS) are analyzed separately over the oceans and over continents, and compared with observed data. Some fundamental atmospheric variables including surface air temperature (SAT), sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation are examined to evaluate the ability of the GOALS model to simulate the contemporary climate and climate variability. In general, all four versions of the GOALS model are capable of reproducing the main features of the mean state and seasonal variation of the observed climate with reasonable accuracy. The evaluation also reveals some weakness of the model. According to this study, we can clearly see that the essential discrepancy of global averaged SLP lies over the continents in boreal summer. The simulated higher SAT over land versus the observed is mainly due to the effect of the land surface process. It is worth noting the underestimation by simulated precipitation rates mostly appears over the oceans, yet over-land precipitation is higher in high and middle latitudes than the observed for the boreal winter. Through intercomparisons among different versions of the model, it can be clearly seen that the incorporation of the diurnal cycle of solar radiation apparently improves the simulation of SAT, especially in the low and middle latitudes over land. Also, the introduction of the diurnal cycle shows a great improvement in precipitation in tropical continents and wintertime precipitation in high and middle latitudes. Furthermore, based on the daily flux anomaly exchange scheme (DFA), the latest version of GOALS model simulated over-ocean temperature variability is improved in the low and middle latitudes. Having compared the standard deviation of the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) simulated by the GOALS model to observation, it is found that all four versions of the GOALS model underestimate surface air temperature variability over both oceans and land relative to observations. Several factors that may contribute to these differences between simulated and observed temperature variability are identified.

Multi-scale variation characteristics of polar vortex at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere

By use of 1948-2007 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly geopotential data, a set of circulation indices are defined to characterize the polar vortex at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere, including area-（S）, intensity-（P） and centre position-（λc , φc） indices. Sea-sonal variation, interannual anomalies and their possible causes of 10 hPa polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere are analyzed by using these indices, the relationship between 10 hPa polar vortex strength and the Antarctic Oscillation are analyzed as well. The results show that： （1） the polar region at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere is controlled by anticyclone （cyclone） from Dec. to Jan. （from Mar. to Oct.）, Feb. and Nov. are circulation transition seasons. （2） Intensity index （P） and area index （S） of anticy-clone （cyclone） in Jan. （Jul.） show a significant spike in the late 1970s, the anticyclone （cyclone） enhances （weakens） from ex-tremely weak （strong） oscillation to near the climatic mean before a spike, anticyclone tends to the mean state from very strong oscillation and cyclone oscillates in the weaker state after the spike. （3） There is significant interdecadal change for the anticyclone center in Jan., while markedly interannual variation for cyclone center in July. （4） The ozone anomalies can cause the interannual anomaly of the polar anticyclone at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere in Jan. （positive correlation between them）, but it is not related to the polar cyclone anomalies. （5） There is notable negative correlation between the polar vortex intensity index P and the Antarctic Oscillation index （AAOI）, thus AAOI can be represented by P.