Past, Present and Future Climatic Forcing due to Greenhouse Gases

An advanced one-dimensional radiative-convective model (RCM) is used to estimate the past, present and future climatic forcings induced by greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin, such as CO2, CH4, N2O and CFCs, in this paper. The results show that the decadal climatic forcing for the last decade is one-order bigger than that prior to the year 1900, and in the case of no control on the emission of the greenhouse gases the climatic forcing for the year 2100 will be almost 4 times as much as now.

Cretaceous Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) Affect Sedimentary Processing: Jordan, Arabian Plate;NW Germany, Central Europe

Both the NE Gondwana Platform (Jordan) and the Carpathian/NW Europe Seaway towards the N Atlantic expose comparable sequence analytical patterns as i.e. the Maximum Flooding Surface (MSF), relating to the Arabian Shelf, throughout one of the warmest Phanerozoic Epochs. Supervolcanic Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs), (explosive island arc andesitic volcanism), Mid-Oceanic Rift Basalts (MORB), (S/N Atlantic, Arctic) and kimberlitic volcanism (W Gondwana) provided striking conditions for an immense influence (tuff, degassing, T) on the sedimentary processing throughout the Cretaceous, mainly verified by K-montmorillonite , dozens of tuff beds (predominantly in NW Germany), zeolite, cristobalite, extremely high chert occurrences as well as the reconfirming of the global anoxic event around the Cenomanian/Turonian b. (94 Ma) by a positive ∂13C-maximum (~0.5%). Thus the lithofacies spectrum (carbonate rocks, chalk, chert, porcellanite, shale) was affected by pH, Eh, T, photosynthesis, and greenhouse gases—change during varying positive/negative climate forcing. While acid sturzrain events caused the transformation of arkosic/subarkosic sediments of the hinterlands to quartz arenite cycles deposited on the Jordanian Platform during early Cretaceous, the other patterns mentioned, led to a rapid change of lithofacies through Late Cretaceous. The southward directed Neotethys transgression can be reconstructed during the Early Cretaceous by glauconite-aged tidalites that give hint on transpressional tectonics during the Upper Cenomanian east of the Dead Sea. The Cretaceous/Paleogene (K-Pg) transitional zone evidences a zone of several cumulative events (island arc-volcanism) and the Chicxulub impact, indicated by at least two extinctions phases. The southward obduction of the Palmyrides, Syria and related transtensional/transpressional strike slip tectonics (partially pull-apart structures) left a fast facies change on the Jordanian Platform.

The Permian-Triassic Transitional Zone: Jordan, Arabian Plate;Linked to Siberian Large Igneous Province and Neo-Tethys Breakup Degassing via Climate Forcing, Atmospheric Hazard and Metal Toxicity

End-Permian Gondwana siliciclastics (50 - 70 m) of the Um Irna F exposed along the NE Dead Sea, exhibit carbonate-free fining upward cycles (FUC) deposited during acid flash flood events under tropical climate. Several ferruginous paleosol intercalations cover periods of drying upward formation (DUP) under semiarid/arid climates. Thin grey pelite beds interbedded between paleosol and overlying FUC, are interpreted as tephra deposits sourced in Siberian LIP- and Neo-Tethys (NT)-Degassing. The Wadi Bassat en Nimra-section exhibits the P-T transitional zone where flash flood deposits meet supra-/intertidal sediments of the southward-directed transgressive NT. Decreasing flash-flooding continued through the Lower Scythian (Ma’in F.) during transgression, reworking, and resedimentation. Two euryhaline foraminifera-bearing limestone beds are discussed as indicators for the end of mass extinction (recovery phase: ca. 250.8 - 250.4 Ma) possibly correlating with the Maximum Flooding Surface MFS Tr 10 (ca. 250.5 Ma) on the Arabian Shelf (Khuff cycles B;A). Comparable data from the Germanic Basin as FUC/DUP-cycles, tephrasuspicious “Grey Beds” with high concentrations of As, Co, Pb, Zn, and Cu as well as the U-Pb Age data of the Siberian LIP meet the PTB-Zone between the MFSs Intervals P 40 (ca. 254 Ma)/Tr 10 (ca 250.5 Ma) on the Arabian Shelf. MFS (Tr 10, 20, 30) and SBs resp. on the Arabian Plate, as well as Scythian Substage boundaries correlate with ∂13 C-excursions recorded at Musandam, UAE. Thereby, the ratio of greenhouse gases (+climate forcing)/aerosols und tephra (-climate forcing) takes a significant influence on the ∂13C-Variation.

Simulation of Desert-Scrub Growth: A Forcing to Warmer and More Pluvial Climate

Desert-fringe vegetation growing over bright, sandy soils reduces the surface albedo from above 0.4 to well below 0.3. Called desert-scrub, these shrubs form a predominantly vertical clumps protruding from the soil-level, thereby significantly increasing the coefficient of turbulent heat transfer from the surface. The impact on global and desert-belt climate of changes in these two surface characteristics was simulated by a multi-layer energy balance tnodel. Evaluated only as a forcing to a further climatic change (that is, without accounting for any possible feedbacks) the results are: if vegetation (such as apparently existed under the warmer climate of 6,000 BP ) grows over large areas in the arid, currently bare-soil regions, the annual Northern Hemisphere surface temperature increases by 0.7t (by 0.6'C in July ), the surface temperature over land in the 20-30°N zone increases by 0.9℃ in both the annual and the July means, and the land-ocean annual temperature contrast in this zone increases by 0.25℃(0.2° in July). These results represent the combined influence of the reduction in the surface albedo and of the increase in the coefficient of turbulent heat transfer. In the desert-belt zones, the increase in the transfer coefficient sharply reduces the land temperature and the land-ocean temperature contrast from the values produced by the albedo change alone. This reduction must be attributed to the increased land-to-ocean circulation (which our model does not evaluate explicitly). Considering that a stronger circulation (resulting from land-ocean temperature contrast) generally forces a higher rainfall, the vegetation which emerged in the arid regions during the post-glacial optimum should be considered a significant positive feedback towards a still warmer, and also a more pluvial, climate. Our study may have implications for the 21st century, if the global warming expected from the enhanced greenhouse effects is accompanied by increased precipitation over the continents.

Precipitation cycles in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River （1736-2000）

Based on the long-term precipitation series with annual time resolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its four sub-regions during 1736-2000 reconstructed from the rainfall and snowfall archives of the Qing Dynasty, the precipitation cycles are analyzed by wavelet analysis and the possible climate forcings, which drive the precipitation changes, are explored. The results show that： the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River has inter-annual and inter-decadal oscillations like 2-4a, quasi-22a and 70-80a. The 2-4a cycle is linked with El Nino events, and the precipitation is lower than normal year in the occurrence of the El Nino year or the next year; for the quasi-22a and the 70-80a cycles, Wolf Sun Spot Numbers and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） coincide with the two cycle signals. However, on a 70-80a time scale, the coincidence between solar activity and precipitation is identified before 1830, and strong （weak） solar activity is generally correlated to the dry （wet） periods; after 1830, the solar activity changes to 80-100a quasi-century long oscillation, and the adjusting action to the precipitation is becoming weaker and weaker; the coincidence between PDO and precipitation is shown in the whole time series. Moreover, in recent 100 years, PDO is becoming a pace-maker of the precipitation on the 70-80a time scale.

Influences of greenhouse effect on agricultural production in China

An obvious warming in China induced by doubled carbon, dioxide as simulated by the climatic models have been found. It is also noticed that there might be drying or wetting in some parts of China induced by doubled CO2 as simulated by the general circulation models(GCMs). Agricultural productivity mainly depends on the temperature, rainfall and soil moisture in China. The changes of agricultural productivity in the different parts of China induced by doubled CO2 have been estimated in this paper. It is shown that the greenhouse effect might cause increasing production in some parts of China and decreasing production in other parts of China.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC OSCILLATION FORCED BY EL NINO DURING NORTHERN WINTER

Using a nine-layer global spectral model, numerical schemes with two different SST distributions in January (control case and abnormal case) have been tested to study the climatic effect, propagation charateris- tics and the maintenance mechanism of the short-term climatic oscillation caused by El Nino during northern winter. The main results are as follows: (1) During northern winter, there exist two wave trains because of the influence of El Nino. One is similar to PNA pattern, and the other is similar to EUP pattern. (2) The PNA-like wave train caused by the anomalous SST forcing in central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is due to the response of ultralong wave and long wave components of Rossby mode, and the EUP-like wave train crossing Eurasia is mainly due to the wave component of Rossby mode. (3) During northern winter, the warm water region in central equatorial Pacific Ocean is the source of forced wave trains. (4) In northern winter, the energy source for maintaining the short-term climatic oscillation is from the interaction between eddies, and between eddy and zonal flow.

Contributions of anthropogenic and external natural forcings to climate changes over China based on CMIP5 model simulations

Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities(including greenhouse gases(GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols(AAs), and land use(LU)) and external natural forcings(Nat) to climate changes in China over the past 50 years were quantified. Both anthropogenic and external natural forcings account for 95%–99% of the observed temperature change from 1951–1975 to 1981–2005. In particular, the temperature changes induced by GHGs are approximately 2–3 times stronger than the observed changes, and AAs impose a significant cooling effect. The total external forcings can explain 65%–78% of the observed precipitation changes over the past 50 years, in which AAs and GHGs are the primary external forcings leading to the precipitation changes; in particular, AAs dominate the main spatial features of precipitation changes in eastern China. Human activities also dominate the long-term non-linear trends in observed temperature during the past several decades, and, in particular, GHGs, the primary warming contributor, have produced significant warming since the 1960 s. Compared to the long-term non-linear trends in observed precipitation, GHGs have largely caused the wetting changes in the arid-semiarid region since the 1970 s, whereas AAs have led to the drying changes in the humid-semihumid region; both LU and Nat can impose certain impacts on the long-term non-linear trends in precipitation. Using the optimal fingerprinting detection approach, the effects of human activities on the temperature changes can be detected and attributed in China, and the effect of GHGs can be clearly detected from the observations in humid-semihumid areas. However, the anthropogenic effects cannot be detected in the observed precipitation changes, which may be due to the uncertainties in the model simulations and to other issues. Although some results in this paper still need improvement due to uncertainties in the coupled models, this study is expected to provide the background and scientific basis for climate changes to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments of the ecological systems and water resources in the arid-semiarid region of China.

A NUMERICAL STUDY OF SHORT-RANGE CLIMATIC OSCILLATION WITH VARIOUS TIME SCALES FORCED BY EL NINO DURING THE NORTHERN SUMMER

The normal mode method is adopted to decompose the differences between simulations with SST(sea surface temperature)anomahes over centra-eastern Pacific and normal SST by use of a nine-layer global spec- tral model in order to investigate short-range climatic oscillation with various time scales forced by El Nino during the northern summer.Investigation shows that El Nino may have the following influence on atmosphere on various space-time scales.Extra-long wave components of Rossby mode forced by convective anomaly over equatorial western Pacific resulting from El Nino produce climatic oscillation on monthly(sea- sonal)time scale in middle-high latitudes of Southern and Northern Hemispheres;extra-long wave components of Kelvin mode forced by SST anomalies propagate along the equator,resulting in 30—60 day oscillation of tropical and subtropical atmosphere;and its long waves move eastward with westerly,resulting in quasi-biweek oscillation.

THE NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODEL WITH MOUNTAIN FORCING

In order to investigate the effects of trace gases on climate variation in the atmosphere, we have devel- oped a primitive equation two-dimensional dynamical climate model with five levels. A series of simula- tion results and discussions are shown in this paper, indicating that the model is useful and can correctly reproduced the main feature of the general atmospheric circulation and its seasonal changes. In addition, we have discussed the role of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on the formation process of summer monsoon in South Asia and found that the thermal effect of the Qjnghai-Xizang Plateau may not be the main factor controlling the onset and the variation of the summer monsoon in South Asia.

基于孢粉记录的亚洲季风湿润区6.8万年古气候变化定量重建

东亚季风降水的冰期-间冰期变率及其驱动机制一直备受关注和争议,然而在东亚季风湿润区内,具有完整的末次冰期以来古气候定量重建记录十分缺乏.本研究利用亚洲季风湿润区内的3个孢粉记录进行了古气候定量重建.结果表明6.8万年以来区域内的气候变化显著,年降雨量与年平均温度在末次冰盛期与全新世大暖期之间的差别可分别达到35%~51%与5~7℃.定量重建的降水记录揭示了H1与YD等快速气候变化期间东亚季风降水存在区域差异性,即印度季风影响下的中国西南部较为干燥的同时,中国中东部则表现为相对湿润.冰期-间冰期尺度下的降水记录综合变化趋势总体上与中国西南部和南亚地区的石笋δ^(18)O记录基本一致.气候重建结果还显示出MIS3降水变化对轨道太阳辐射的敏感性,尤其是南北半球间温度梯度对亚洲季风变率具有显著的影响.定量降水记录与瞬态模拟结果及主要气候强迫对比显示,在末次冰盛期过渡到全新世期间,降水的变化模式除了受控于太阳辐射变化外,还明显受到大西洋经向翻转环流事件的叠加影响.

Numerical simulation study of temperature change over East China in the past millennium

Despite many studies on reconstructing the climate changes over the last millennium in China,the cause of the China's climate change remains unclear.We used the UVic Earth System Climate Model(UVic Model),an Earth system model of intermediate complexity,to investigate the contributions of climate forcings(e.g.solar insolation variability,anomalous volcanic aerosols,greenhouse gas,solar orbital change,land cover changes,and anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) to surface air temperature over East China in the past millennium.The simulation of the UVic Model could reproduce the three main characteristic periods(e.g.the Medieval Warm Period(MWP),the Little Ice Age(LIA),and the 20th Century Warming Period(20CWP)) of the northern hemisphere and East China,which were consistent with the corresponding reconstructed air temperatures at century scales.The simulation result reflected that the air temperature anomalies of East China were larger than those of the global air temperature during the MWP and the first half of 20CWP and were lower than those during the LIA.The surface air temperature of East China over the past millennium has been divided into three periods in the MWP,four in the LIA,and one in the 20CWP.The MWP of East China was caused primarily by solar insolation and secondarily by volcanic aerosols.The variation of the LIA was dominated by the individual sizes of the contribution of solar insolation variability,greenhouse gas,and volcano aerosols.Greenhouse gas and volcano aerosols were the main forcings of the third and fourth periods of the LIA,respectively.We examined the nonlinear responses among the natural and anthropogenic forcings in terms of surface air temperature over East China.The nonlinear responses between the solar orbit change and anomalous volcano aerosols and those between the greenhouse gases and land cover change(or anthropogenic sulfate aerosols) all contributed approximately 0.2℃ by the end of 20th century.However,the output of the energy-moisture balance atmospheric model from UVic showed no obvious nonlinear responses between anthropogenic and natural forcings.The nonlinear responses among all the climate forcings(both anthropogenic and natural forcings) contributed to a temperature increase of approximately 0.27℃ at the end of the 20th century,accounting for approximately half of the warming during this period;the remainder was due to the climate forcings themselves.

Modeling Study of Foehn Wind Events in Antarctic Peninsula with WRF Forced by CCSM

Significant changes have occurred in the Antarctic Peninsula(AP) including warmer temperatures, accelerated melting of glaciers, and breakup of ice shelves. This study uses the Weather Research and Forecasting model(WRF)forced by the Community Climate System Model 4(CCSM) simulations to study foehn wind warming in AP. Weather systems responsible for generating the foehn events are two cyclonic systems that move toward and/or cross over AP. WRF simulates the movement of cyclonic systems and the resulting foehn wind warming that is absent in CCSM. It is found that the warming extent along a transect across the central AP toward Larsen C Ice Shelf(LCIS) varies during the simulation period and the maximum warming moves from near the base of leeward slopes to over 40 km away extending toward the attached LCIS. Our analysis suggests that the foehn wind warming is negatively correlated with the incoming air temperature and the mountain top temperature during periods without significant precipitation, in which isentropic drawdown is the dominant heating mechanism. On the other hand, when significant precipitation occurs along the windward side of AP, latent heating is the major heating mechanism evidenced by positive relations between the foehn wind warming and 1) incoming air temperature, 2) windward precipitation, and 3)latent heating. Foehn wind warming caused by isentropic drawdown also tends to be stronger than that caused by latent heating. Comparison of WRF simulations forced by original and corrected CCSM data indicates that foehn wind warming is stronger in the original CCSM forced simulation when no significant windward precipitation is present.The foehn wind warming becomes weaker in both simulations when there is significant windward precipitation. This suggests that model’s ability to resolve the foehn warming varies with the forcing data, but the precipitation impact on the leeward warming is consistent.