Numerical Models and Methods of Atmospheric Parameters Originating in the Formation of the Earth’s Climatic Cycle

Atmospheric models are physical equations based on the ideal gas law. Applied to the atmosphere, this law yields equations for water, vapor (gas), ice, air, humidity, dryness, fire, and heat, thus defining the model of key atmospheric parameters. The distribution of these parameters across the entire planet Earth is the origin of the formation of the climatic cycle, which is a normal climatic variation. To do this, the Earth is divided into eight (8) parts according to the number of key parameters to be defined in a physical representation of the model. Following this distribution, numerical models calculate the constants for the formation of water, vapor, ice, dryness, thermal energy (fire), heat, air, and humidity. These models vary in complexity depending on the indirect trigonometric direction and simplicity in the sum of neighboring models. Note that the constants obtained from the equations yield 275.156˚K (2.006˚C) for water, 273.1596˚K (0.00963˚C) for vapor, 273.1633˚K (0.0133˚C) for ice, 0.00365 in/s for atmospheric dryness, 1.996 in2/s for humidity, 2.993 in2/s for air, 1 J for thermal energy of fire, and 0.9963 J for heat. In summary, this study aims to define the main parameters and natural phenomena contributing to the modification of planetary climate. .

Dust storms evolution in Taklimakan Desert and its correlation with climatic parameters

Based on the sand dust storms data and climatic data in 12 meteorological stations around sand dust storm originating areas of the Taklimakan Desert, we analyzed the trends of the number of dust storm days from 1960 to 2005 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation, wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed 〉 5 m/s. The results show that the frequency of dust storm events in the Taklimakan region decreased with the elapse of time. Except Ruoqiang and Minfeng, in the other 10 meteorological stations, the frequency of dust storm events reduces, and in 4 meteorological stations of Kuqa, Korla, Kalpin and Hotan, the frequency of dust storm events distinctly decreases. The temperature has an increasing trend, while the average wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed ≥ 5 m/s have decreasing trends. The correlation analysis between the number of days of dust storms and climatic parameters demonstrates that wind speed and the number of days with mean wind speed 〉 5 m/s have strong positive correlation with the number of days of dust storms, with the correlations coefficients being 0.743 and 0.720 （p〈0.01）, respectively, which indicates that strong wind is the direct factor resulting in sand dust storms. Whereas precipitation has significant negative correlation with the number of days of dust storms （p〈0.01）, and the prior annual precipitation has also negative correlation, which indicates that the prior precipitation restrains the occurrence of sand dust storms, but this restraining action is weaker than the same year＇s precipitation. Temperature has negative correlation with the number of dust storm days, with a correlations coefficient of -0.433 （p〈0.01）, which means that temperature change also has impacts on the occurrence of dust storm events in the Taklimakan region.

Effect of altitude and climatic parameters on shrub-meadow community composition and diversity in the dry valley region of the eastern Hengduan Mountains,China

Because of the“foehn effect”,deeply incised gorges of major rivers in the Hengduan Mountains(commonly called dry valleys)have semiarid or arid climate.Harsh environment and difficult access have so far obstructed the systematic inventory and documentation of the flora of these dry valleys.This is particularly problematic for efforts towards the conservation of endemic and valuable plant species.Therefore,102 shrub-meadow community survey plots were set up along four dry valleys in Ganzi prefecture,located in the eastern Hengduan Mountains,China.The compositions,richness,diversity of these communities were calculated and assessed using sample plot survey and phytosociological approach.Overall,244 plant species were recorded,consisting of subtropical(48.77%)and temperate(38.83%)species,47.13%of which were endemic to southwest China.Obvious differences in species composition and structure along the altitude gradient were observed.The variations of richness,diversity,and evenness followed a bimodal-hump shaped pattern with increasing altitude,with peak occurring at mid-level altitude(3501–4000 m)and valley occurring at 2501–3000 m altitude.The regions at 2501–3000 m altitudes were more sensitive to global climate change and biological interference,and were found to have the highest protection value.The impacts of altitude gradients and climatic parameters on the features of this shrubmeadow community were also evaluated using principal component and multiple linear stepwise regression analysis methods.Altitude and temperature-related variables were the most important drivers of both species richness and cover.Speciesα-diversity here only depended on the precipitation frequency.This founding could help to understand the impact of the very harsh environment and altitude gradient on plant-plant interactions in a variety of natural systems.

Influence of Climatic Parameters on Soybean Subjected to Low Nitrogen Application Rates in Southern Guinea Savanna of Oyo State, Nigeria

The variability in weather patterns consequent upon climate change constitutes a critical factor influencing soil N availability and the performance of crops. This paper aimed at evaluating the effects of climatic factors on soybean subjected to low N rates under rain-fed situation in the southern Guinea agro-ecology of Oyo State, Nigeria. A 2-year field experiment involving two soybean varieties (TGx1485-1D and TGx1448-2E) and five low rates of N fertilizer application (0, 5, 15, 25, 35 kg/ha) using Urea applied by banding 7 days after planting was arranged in a 5 × 2 split-plot with three replications. N rates constitute the main plot while variety constitutes the sub-plot. Parameters measured include dry shoot weight, shoot N accumulation, and grain yield. Data were subjected to GENSTAT statistical package for analysis, and means separated with Duncan Multiple Range Test (DMRT) at 5% level of probability. Climatic parameters of rainfall, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration data were collected from the surface observatory of the National meteorological agency (NIMET) and subjected to Excel package for computation and graphics. The dry shoot weight increases as N rate increases up to 25 kg/ha, but declines at 35 kg/ha application rate, however, TGx1448-2E produced a higher dry shoot weight (2.9 t/ha) than TGx1485-1D (2.8 t/ha). Low N rates had no significant effects on shoot N accumulation and there was no significant difference in varietal response. Low N rate did not affect grain yield, but the TGx1448-2E had a greater yield of 1.5 t/ha than TGx1485-1D (1.30 t/ha). Annual rainfall amounts were 935.5 mm and1475.8 mm in 2009 and 2010 respectively. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) values were 1676.5 mm and 1676.8 mm in 2009 and 2010 respectively. Temperature values range from 24˚C to 29.8˚C in both years and the mean monthly temperature for 2009 was 26.5˚C and 27.1˚C for 2010. The application of N fertilizer to soybean requires appropriate timing for effective use. Climatic parameters such as rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration have dire consideration for fertilizer use and efficiency.

New Evidences on the Climatic Causes of the Formation of the Spring Persistent Rains over Southeastern China

The spring persistent rains（SPR）over southeastern China（SEC）are a unique synoptic and climatic phenomenon in East Asia.A former study has found that the southwesterly flow which lies on the southeastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau（TP）is one of the deflected westerly flows of the TP,and it is suggested to be the direct climatic cause of SPR.This study found that the southwesterly flow is also highly correlated with the sensible heating of the southeastern TP in interannual variability,in addition to having a high correlation in seasonal variability.These facts suggest that the thermal forcing of the TP is another important climatic cause of SPR.Numerical sensitivity experiments further prove that the mechanical and thermal forcings of the TP are the climatic causes of the formation of the SPR.On the other hand,the Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains（NWM）over southeastern China not only increase the SPR precipitation amount evidently,but also make the SPR rain belt move to the south by blocking the strong southwesterly flow.

Three-stage Method for Identifying the Dynamic Model Parameters of Stranded Wire Helical Springs

The dynamic behavior of the stranded wire helical spring is described by a modified Bouc-Wen model while the model parameters must be identified using an identification method and experimental data. Existing identification methods usually relies either solely nonlinear iterative algorithms or manually trial and error. Therefore, the identification process can be rather time consuming and effort taking. As a result, these methods are not ideal for engineering applications. To come up with a more practical method, a three-stage identification method is proposed. Periodic loading and identification simulations are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. Noises are added to the simulated data to test the performance of the proposed method when dealing with noise contaminated data. The simulation results indicate that the proposed method is able to give satisfying results when the noise levels are set to be 0.01, 0.03, 0.05 and 0.07. In addition, the proposed method is also applied to experimental data and compared with an existing method. The experimental data is acquired through a periodic loading test. The experiment results suggest that the proposed method features better accuracy compared with the existing method. An effective approach is proposed for identifying the model parameters of the stranded wire helical spring.

Agro-Climatic Risks Analysis in Climate Variability Context in Ségou Region

In the Sahel region, the population depends largely on rain-fed agriculture. In West Africa in particular, climate models turn out to be unable to capture some basic features of present-day climate variability. This study proposes a contribution to the analysis of the evolution of agro-climatic risks in the context of climate variability. Some statistical tests are used on the main variables of the rainy season to determine the trends and the variabilities described by the data series. Thus, the paper provides a statistical modeling of the different agro-climatic risks while the seasonal variability of agro-climatic parameters was analyzed as well as their inter annual variability. The study identifies the probability distributions of agroclimatic risks and the characterization of the rainy season was clarified.

Comparative study of surface energy and land-surface parameters in different climate zones in Northwest China

Based on observational data of arid,semi-arid and semi-humid areas in Northwest China,the characteristics of surface-wa ter heat transfer and land-surface parameters were compared and analyzed.The results show that the annual mean net radi ation was largest in the semi-humid area,followed by the semi-arid area,and then the arid area:77.72 W/m^2,67.73 W/m^2,and 55.47 W/m^2,respectively.The annual mean sensible heat flux was largest in the arid area,followed by the semi-arid and semi-humid areas,while latent heat flux showed the reverse.The annual mean sensible heat flux in arid,semi-arid,and semi-humid areas was 85.7 W/m^2,37.59 W/m^2,and 27.55 W/m^2,respectively.The annual mean latent heat flux was 0 W/m^2,26.08 W/m^2,and 51.19 W/m2,respectively.The annual mean soil-heat flux at the 5-cm soil layer in arid,semi-arid,and semi-humid areas was 1.00 W/m^2,0.82 W/m^2,and 1.25 W/m^2,respectively.The annual mean surface albedo was larg est in the arid area,followed by the semi-humid area;and the smallest was in the semi-arid area:0.24,0.21,and 0.18,re spectively.The annual mean Bowen ratio in the semi-arid area was about 2.06,and that in semi-humid area was about 0.03.The annual mean soil thermal conductivity in the arid,semi-arid,and semi-humid areas was 0.26 W/(m k),1.15 W/(m k),and 1.20 W/(m k),respectively.

Drought Monitoring and Assessment of Climate Parameters Variability in Koutiala and San Districts, Mali

In Mali, the annual temperature, rainfall, and evapotranspiration are high variables. Their distributions are unevenly spread from north to south. Climate change strengthens to increase air temperature and evapotranspiration. It also increases the intense rainstorms and the risk of drought associated heat waves. Drought is considered a natural disaster among all hydrologic extremes. It causes severe damage to the environment, agriculture, and livelihoods relying on water resources. The present study evaluated the variation of drought indices from 1989 to 2019 in Koutiala and San districts, respectively. Therefore, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was applied. Hence, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used and for 12-month time-scales. Trend analysis of monthly precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration has been done by using the MK test. Based on the analysis result, the climate of the Koutiala and San districts has been classified as moderate to severe drought category. However, this result clearly shows SPEI pattern changes in both districts. The monthly precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend in Koutiala and San districts. In comparison, the monthly temperature and evapotranspiration displayed an increasing trend in both districts.

Utilization of Agricultural Climatic Resources under the Spring Maize-Spring Potato Intercropping Pattern in Pengzhou City

According to the meteorological requirements of maize and potato,using the data of meteorological observations and soil moisture of Pengzhou City,the agricultural climatic resources of spring maize and spring potato planting and the advantages of agricultural climatic resources of their intercropping were analyzed. The suitable sowing dates for spring maize and spring potato are late March to early April,early February to early March,respectively. During the growth period,the heat resources are abundant,the soil moisture is sufficient,the precipitation and overall distribution are suitable,and the sunshine is still sufficient,which can meet the needs of each growth period. The overall configuration of agricultural meteorological resources is coordinated,which is suitable for the planting of the two. Spring maize-spring potato intercropping can make the most of land,time and space,improve light and heat utilization,reduce pests and diseases,and increase output per unit area,thereby maximizing economic benefits.

Mass-Spring-Damper Model with Steady State Parameters for Predicting the Movement of Liquid Column and Temperature Oscillation in Loop Heat Pipe

In order to investigate the mechanism of the temperature oscillation in loop heat pipes,this paper investigated the movement of the phase interface as the changed input power by a mass-spring-damper model.The model was solved with MATLAB and was used to explain the high-frequency and low-amplitude temperature oscillation.Temperature variation with the input power from 20 W to 75 W was investigated based on a LHP prototype in a literature.The model agreed well with the experimental data in the literature.The simulation results suggested that the movement of the liquid column was caused by the fluctuation of pressure difference applied on the liquid column and the stiffness coefficients of the vapor springs increasing with the input power.According to parameter analyses,the temperature oscillation at the outlet of the condenser can be weakened by increasing the mass of the liquid column and keeping the temperature at the outlet of the condenser steady.

Impacts of Upper Tropospheric Cooling upon the Late Spring Drought in East Asia Simulated by a Regional Climate Model

Responses of late spring （21 April 20 May） rainfall to the upper tropospheric cooling over East Asia are investigated with a regional climate model based on Laboratoire de M6t6orologie Dynamique Zoom （LMDZ4-RCM）. A control experiment is performed with two runs driven by the mean ERA-40 data during 1958-1977 and 1981 2000, respectively. The model reproduces the major decadal-scale circulation changes in late spring over East Asia, including a cooling in the upper troposphere and an anomalous meridional cell. Accordingly, the precipitation decrease is also captured in the southeast of the upper-level cooling region. To quantify the role of the upper-level cooling in the drought mechanism, a sensitivity experiment is further conducted with the cooling imposed in the upper troposphere. It is demonstrated that the upper-level cooling can generate the anomalous meridional cell and consequently the drought to the southeast of the cooling center. Therefore, upper tropospheric cooling should have played a dominant role in the observed late spring drought over Southeast China in recent decades.

Role of Parameter Errors in the Spring Predictability Barrier for ENSO Events in the Zebiak–Cane Model

ABSTRACT The impact of both initial and parameter errors on the spring predictability barrier （SPB） is investigated using the Zebiak Cane model （ZC model）. Previous studies have shown that initial errors contribute more to the SPB than parameter errors in the ZC model. Although parameter errors themselves are less important, there is a possibility that nonlinear interactions can occur between the two types of errors, leading to larger prediction errors compared with those induced by initial errors alone. In this case, the impact of parameter errors cannot be overlooked. In the present paper, the optimal combination of these two types of errors [i.e., conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） errors] is calculated to investigate whether this optimal error combination may cause a more notable SPB phenomenon than that caused by initial errors alone. Using the CNOP approach, the CNOP errors and CNOP-I errors （optimal errors when only initial errors are considered） are calculated and then three aspects of error growth are compared： （1） the tendency of the seasonal error growth; （2） the prediction error of the sea surface temperature anomaly; and （3） the pattern of error growth. All three aspects show that the CNOP errors do not cause a more significant SPB than the CNOP-I errors. Therefore, this result suggests that we could improve the prediction of the E1 Nifio during spring by simply focusing on reducing the initial errors in this model.

Wavelet analysis of spring climate characteristics in arid aeolian area of agro-pastoral ecotone in China

The unique regional climate characteristics are among the main reasons for the frequent wind-sand activity in arid and cold areas in the agro-pastoral ecotone in Inner Mongolia, China. This paper focuses on the time series of temperature and precipitation in spring when sandstorms often occur in the area. Based on meteorological data for a 46-year period from 1959 to 2004, multi-scale variations and abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation were analyzed with the Mexican hat function （MHF） wavelet method, showing the multi-scale variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation, as well as the periods and change points at different time scales. The relationship between temperature and precipitation was obtained using the wavelet analysis method. Obvious staggered features of the variations of spring temperature and precipitation were observed in this agro-pastoral ecotone. The strongest oscillation periods of spring temperature variations were 1 and 22 years, while for precipitation, the strongest oscillation periods of variations were 2, 8, and 22 years. In addition, lower spring temperature corresponded to lower precipitation, whereas higher temperature yielded higher precipitation rate.

Spatio-temporal variation of spring phenology in Tibetan Plateau and its linkage to climate change from 1982 to 2012

The influence of climate change on vegetation phenology is a heated issue in current climate change study.We used GIMMS-3g NDVI data to detect the spatio-temporal dynamics of the start of the growing season(SGS) over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) from 1982 to 2012 and to analyze its relationship with temperature and precipitation.No significant trend was observed in the SGS at the regional scale during the study period(R^2 = 0.03,P = 0.352).However,there were three time periods(1982-1999,1999-2008 and 2008-2012) with identifiable,distinctly different trends.Regions with a significant advancing trend were mainly scattered throughout the humid and semi-humid areas,whereas the regions with a significant delaying trend were mostly distributed throughout the semi-arid areas.Statistical analysis showed that the response of the SGS to climate change varies spatially.The SGS was significantly correlated with the spring temperature and the start of the thermal growth season(STGS) in the relatively humid area.With increasing aridity,theimportance of the spring temperature for the SGS gradually decreased.However,the influences of precipitation and winter temperature on the SGS were complicated across the plateau.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from ?-24% to -94% depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Meticulous Regionalization of Climate Suitability about Spring Potato Planting in Western Guizhou Based on GIS

[Objective] The study aimed to carry out the regionalization of climate suitability about spring potato planting in Western Guizhou on the basis of GIS technology. [Method] Based on the climatic data of 15 meteorological stations in Western Guizhou during the growing period of spring potato from March to August in 1978-2010, the regionalization indicators of climate suitability about spring potato planting were determined according to the correlation between climatic factors and meteorological yield of spring potato. Afterwards, on the basis of climitic data and corresponding basic geographical information like longitude, latitude, altitude, slope and aspect, the spatial analysis models of division indicators about spring potato planting in Western Guizhou were established by using GIS spatial overlay analysis and used to carry out the township-level regionalization of climate suitability about spring potato planting in Western Guizhou with 100 m×100 m grids. [Result] Based on the relationship between meteorological yield of spring potato and climatic factors in Western Guizhou from 1978 to 2010, eight climatic division indicators, including altitude, average temperature,>10 ℃ active accumulated temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours in the growth stage, average temperature in July, average temperature difference between day and night from July to August, and precipitation from May to July, were chosen for spring potato planting, and each indicator had three levels, namely the most suitable, suitable and sub-suitable. Meanwhile, Western Guizhou was grouped into three areas according to these indicators, including the most suitable area, suitable area and sub-suitable area, and their area accounted for 52%, 45% and 3% of total area of the whole province respectively. [Conclusion] The research could provide scientific references for the production layout and species selection of spring potato in Western Guizhou.

Meteorological impacts on evapotranspiration in different climatic zones of Pakistan

Arid regions are highly vulnerable and sensitive to drought. The crops cultivated in arid zones are at high risk due to the high evapotranspiration and water demands. This study analyzed the changes in seasonal and annual evapotranspiration（ET） during 1951–2016 at 50 meteorological stations located in the extremely arid, arid, and semi-arid zones of Pakistan using the Penman Monteith（PM） method. The results show that ET is highly sensitive and positively correlated to temperature, solar radiation, and wind speed whereas vapor pressure is negatively correlated to ET. The study also identifies the relationship of ET with the meteorological parameters in different climatic zones of Pakistan. The significant trend analysis of precipitation and temperature（maximum and minimum） are conducted at 95% confidence level to determine the behaviors of these parameters in the extremely arid, arid, and semi-arid zones. The mean annual precipitation and annual mean maximum temperature significantly increased by 0.828 mm/a and 0.014℃/a in the arid and extremely arid zones, respectively. The annual mean minimum temperature increased by 0.017℃/a in the extremely arid zone and 0.019℃/a in the arid zone, whereas a significant decrease of 0.007℃/a was observed in the semi-arid zone. This study provides probabilistic future scenarios that would be helpful for policy-makers, agriculturists to plan effective irrigation measures towards the sustainable development in Pakistan.

THE IMPACTS OF ORBITAL PARAMETERS ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER CHINA IN THE HOLOCENE

The impact of orbital parameters on the climate of China in the Holocene is simulated from 11kaBP to 0kaBP with an interval of 1ka using National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model version 2 (CAM2). The geographic distributions of summer precipitation around both 9kaBP and 4kaBP were realistically captured by CAM2, compared to the proxy data collected from 80 stations. Among all orbital parameters, the precession plays a major role in computing solar radiation, which dominates the variations of summer precipitation over China during the Holocene. The summers around 9kaBP were the wettest in China. Later on, the precipitation gradually reduced to the minimum around 0kaBP by about 10%. This tremendous change occurred from the Northeast China and the eastern Inner Mongolia extending southwestwards to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, especially over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Vulnerability of Himalayan springs to climate change and anthropogenic impact: a review

The climate change and unsustainable anthropogenic modification can intensify the vulnerability of the Himalayas. Natural springs are the principal source of potable water security for the Himalayan population. The changes in the trend of precipitation, temperature and glacier melt are expected to impact the quantity and quality of spring water significantly. This review presents an insight to unravel the effects of climate change and land use land cover changes on the spring resources and outline the essential elements of spring hydrology in the Himalayas. The sensitive response of spring flow to the climate has been observed to follows an annual periodic pattern strongly dependent on snowmelt,rainfall, and evapotranspiration. Among all types,Karst aquifers were found to be highly vulnerable. The changes in the forest and urban landscapes are affecting the recharging sites in the headwater region.In the Central Himalayan region(Kosi River basin,Kumaun), the number of perennial springs is decreasing at a rate of three springs year-1, and nonperennial springs are increasing at the rate of one spring year-1. The high concentration of NO3-, Cl-1,SO42-, and coliform counts reported from the spring water evidence a high susceptibility of shallow aquifers to the non-point source of pollution. Future projections indicate high surface-runoff and occurrence of extreme events such as floods, glacial lake outbursts, and landslides can affect the flow and water quality of springs. As the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to increase with time remarkably, there is an urgent need to promote regional scientific studies on springs targeting hydrogeochemical evolution, vulnerability assessment, recharge area dynamics, and development of springshed management program.