Recent signal and impact of wet-to-dry climatic shift in Xinjiang, China

The Xinjiang region of China is among the most sensitive regions to global warming.Based on the meteorological and hydrological observation data,the regional wet-to-dry climate regime shifts in Xinjiang were analyzed and the impacts of climatic shift on the eco-hydrological environment of Xinjiang were assessed in this study.The results showed that temperature and precipitation in Xinjiang have increased since the mid-1980 s,showing a warming-wetting trend.However,drought frequency and severity significantly increased after 1997.The climate of Xinjiang experienced an obvious shift from a warm-wet to a warm-dry regime in 1997.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,extreme temperatures and the number of high temperature days have significantly increased,the start date of high temperature has advanced,and the end date of high temperature has delayed in Xinjiang.In addition,the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation have significantly increased.Consequently,regional ecology and water resources have been impacted by climatic shift and extreme climate in Xinjiang.In response,satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index showed that,since the 1980 s,most regions of Xinjiang experienced a greening trend and vegetation browning after 1997.The soil moisture in Xinjiang has significantly decreased since the late 1990 s,resulting in adverse ecological effects.Moreover,the response of river runoff to climatic shift is complex and controlled by the proportion of snowmelt to the runoff.Runoff originating from the Tianshan Mountains showed a positive response to the regional wet-to-dry shift,whereas that originating from the Kunlun Mountains showed no obvious response.Both climatic shift and increased climate extremes in Xinjiang have led to intensification of drought and aggravation of instability of water circulation systems and ecosystem.This study provides a scientific basis to meet the challenges of water resource utilization and ecological risk management in the Xinjiang region of China.

Holocene Abrupt Climate Shifts and Mid-Holocene Drought Intervals Recorded in Barkol Lake of Northern Xinjiang of China

Study results in this paper have indicated that the Holocene climate in Xinjiang, Northwestem China has been alternating between wet and dry conditions, and was punctuated with a series of abrupt climate shifts. A sediment core taken from Barkol Lake in the northern Xinjiang of Northwest China was analyzed at 1 cm interval for grain-size distribution. Abrupt climate shifts revealed by the grain-size proxy occurred at ca 1.4, 3.0, 4.3, 5.6, 8.0 cal kyr B.E, which were well correlated to both the abrupt shifts recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean （NAO） and the Holocene sea surface temperature （SST） cooling events in the Arabian Ocean. The correlation indicated that the climatic changes in the extreme arid Northwest China were associated with the NAO, probably via the North Atlantic Oscillation-affected westerly winds. The strength and position of westerly winds probably modulated the Siberian-Mongolian high- pressure system （winter monsoon）, and played an important role in climate change of Northwest China. Moreover, an evident drought interval during the middle Holocene was also revealed by grain-size proxy.

Changes in the Covariability of Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation over East Asia Associated with Climate Shift in the Late 1970s

Variations in surface air temperature and precipitation are closely associated because of their thermodynamic relations. The climate shift in the late 1970s and associated changes in precipitation over East Asia have been well reported. However, how the covariability of surface air temperature and precipitation responds to the climate shift is not yet well understood. We used the observed mean（Tmean）, daily maximum（Tmax）, and minimum（Tmin） surface air temperatures and precipitation during the period of 1953–2000 to explore this issue. Results show that the covariability between Tmean and precipitation experienced remarkable changes over certain areas of East Asia after the climate shift with evident seasonal dependencies. In winter, after the climate shift significantly negative correlations occupied more areas over Mongolia and China. By contrast, in summer after the climate shift significantly negative correlations which existed over almost entire East Asia during the pre-shift period were mostly weakened with the exception of enhanced correlations over some small isolated areas. Changes in the covariability of Tmax and precipitation showed a similar spatial pattern to that of the Tmean, whereas the Tmin-precipitation covariability did not. In winter, after the climate shift positive correlations between Tmin and precipitation over southern China were largely weakened, while the areas with significantly negative correlations increased over Mongolia. In summer, changes in Tmin-precipitation covariability appeared to be a negative-positive-negative pattern from south to north over East Asia, with positive changes occurring in the Yangtze-Huai River valley and Korea and negative changes occurring over South China and Japan, and northern part of East Asia.

Climate Shifts and the Role of Nano Structured Particles in the Atmosphere

A global net sum equilibrium in heat exchange is a fact and thus a global climate change doesn’t exist, but climate shifts in climate cells, especially in the northern temperate cell, do. The global climate has been ever since homeostatic, and has recuperated far huger climate impacts in the past. Current climate models need a drastically revision on the focus of carbon dioxide as main driver. Carbon dioxide and other carbon gasses do influence albedo patterns, but provide globally a homeostatic effect with a commonly accepted increase impact of 0.3 degrees Celsius. Carbon dioxide does not trigger the climate shifts, but is an indicator of exhaust of combustion processes that emit very small particles which drive these climate shifts. They are the fine dust and nano structured particles that cause the shifts of the climate in cells, as demonstrated in this article and results i.e. in more thunder and lightning, extreme weather, distinct droughts and precipitation patterns. The causes underlying these shifts are nano structured particles in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, especially largely produced and remain in the temperate climate northern hemisphere cell and get dispersed by jet streams and low and high pressure areas. However, because of electrical charge, caused by friction or due to anthropogenic negatively charged nano structured particle, emissions will travel up to the lower stratosphere and become neutralized at the electro sphere level, and they do also have a tendency to move to the Arctic. The southern hemisphere climate faces limited anthropogenic emissions, because only 10 percent of the world population can contribute with less pollutant providing activities, and hasn’t changed, but that could well be because it is equally influenced and driven, like the northern hemisphere, by the variation of sun activity in diverse cycles. The present problem is that we produce huge amounts of air borne nano structured particles from combustion processes that never exist before. The only nano particles known in nature are those who are limited produced from volcano eruptions and natural forest fires. The natural feedback systems that moderate climate shifts and influence global climate are: convection by cumulonimbus clouds, sea currents and vegetation adaptation. A novel ultra-fine dust electric reduction device (UFDRS-System), created by the author, diminishs to a size of less than 10 nano particles in diameter and thus prevents major electrical drift of nano structured particulates in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and contributes largely in purifying the air and thus reduces the effects of climate shifts. Like solving the acid rain problems with sulphuric acid reduction and ozone depletion with CFCs proscription in the past, the present climate shifts can be mitigated via a reduction of the anthropogenic nano structured particulates in the atmosphere. The UFDRS-System together with the given nature’s solutions can re-balance our atmosphere in a period of two years or a little bit longer due to extension of the lifespan of a particle in the stratosphere.

Changes of Extreme Precipitation and its Associated Mechanisms in Northwest China

Characterized by scarce water resources and fragile ecosystems,Northwest China(NWC)has experienced a climate shift from warm-dry to warm-wet conditions since the 1980s that has garnered extensive concern in recent years.In this study,the variability in extreme precipitation(EP)during 1961-2016 in different climate zones of NWC and the possible mechanisms for this variation are investigated.The results show that the EP trends significantly increased in most of the westerly zone(WZ)and plateau zone(PZ),while the EP trends did not significantly decrease in the monsoon zone(MZ).The start dates of extreme precipitation(SDEP)and end dates of extreme precipitation(EDEP)advanced and were postponed,respectively,in the WZ and PZ,while the opposite occurred in the MZ.Summer atmospheric circulation,water vapor transport,and atmospheric instability over NWC varied greatly with the interdecadal shift in EP before and after 1986.During 1986-2016,upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence occurred in the MZ and PZ,which strengthened ascending flow.In addition,the summer water vapor and atmospheric instability increased in the WZ and PZ.These characteristics created favorable conditions for increased occurrences of EP in the WZ and PZ in summer.Conversely,the upper-level convergence and lower-level divergence in the MZ strengthened descending flow.Decreases in summer water vapor and atmospheric instability occurred in the MZ after 1986.Hence,the environmental conditions in the MZ may have prevented the occurrence and development of EP in summer during 1986-2016.

Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air-sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air-sea system is constructed during the period of 1948-2009. In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift, the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated. Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s, in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately. These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient. Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal values of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height, among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift. We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices. That is to say, abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air-sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices, but also might be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices. Furthermore, at the turning point of 1975, there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific, which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air sea systems.

Weakening of the biennial relationship between Central American and equatorial South American rainfall in recent decades

There is a rainfall variability biennial relationship between Central America （CA） and equatorial South America （ESA） over the tropical western hemisphere, which is known to have arisen due to the combined effects of ENSO and tropical North Atlantic （TNA） SST. Here, the authors report that this biennial rainfall relationship between CA and ESA has weakened remarkably since 2000, with weakening in both in-phase and out-of-phase rainfall transitions. The observed decadal changes in the biennial relationship between CA and ESA rainfall can be attributed to changes in the effects of ENSO and TNA SST since 2000, which may be associated with more frequent occurrences of the central Pacific or＇Modoki＇ type El Ni^o. The weakening of the association with ENSO for CA rainfall since 2000 might have given rise to the weakening of the in-phase rain transition from CA rainfall to the following ESA rainfall. The weakened linkage between boreal-winter ESA rainfall and the subsequent boreal-summer TNA SST since 2000 may have resulted in the weakening of the out- of-phase rainfall transition from boreal-winter ESA rainfall to the subsequent boreal-summer CA rainfall.

Weakened interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic since 2000

Recent studies suggest that the interannual variability in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation has weakened since 2000. In this study, the authors report that the interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic has also weakened remarkably since 2000, attributable to the weakened interannual variability in the zonal sea surface temperature gradient between the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic and in the associated equatorial low-level zonal wind across South America linking the two ocean basins. Diagnosis of a column-integrated moisture budget indicates that the weakening in the interannual variability of the contrast in rainfall is primarily attributable to the changes in moisture convergence associated with vertical motion. The results highlight the clear weakened interannual variability in the coupled equatorial Pacific-Atlantic climate system since 2000, including the Pacific El Nino, Atlantic Nino, equatorial zonal wind across South America, and rainfall over the eastern equatorial Pacific and equatorial Atlantic.

Climate transformation to warm-humid and its effect on river runoff in the source region of the Yellow River

The change characteristics and trends of the regional climate in the source region of the Yellow River, and the response of runoff to climate change, are analyzed based on observational data of air temperature, precipitation, and runoff at 10 main hydrological and weather stations in the region. Our results show that a strong signal of climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the western parts of northwestern China （Xinjiang） and the western Hexi Corridor of Gansu Province occurred in the late 1980s, and a same signal of climate change occurred in the mid-2000s in the source region of the Yellow River located in the eastern part of northwestern China. This climate changeover has led to a rapid increase in rainfall and stream runoff in the latter region. In most of the years since 2004 the average annual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River has been greater than the long-term average annual value, and after 2007 the runoff measured at all of the hydrologic sections on the main channel of the Yellow River in the source region has also consistently exceeded the long-term average annual because of rainfall increase. It is difficult to determine the prospects of future climate change until additional observations and research are conducted on the rate and temporal and spatial extents of climate change in the region. Nevertheless, we predict that the climate shift from warm-dry to warm-humid in the source region of the Yellow River is very likely to be in the decadal time scale, which means a warming and rainy climate in the source region of the Yellow River will continue in the coming decades.

Variability and Trends of Precipitation in Quelimane, Central Mozambique, and Their Relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Understanding precipitation variability and trends is very important for sustainable water management. In this paper, we used 65 years (1951-2016) long- term precipitation data to evaluate the precipitation variability and trends in Quelimane, and their relation to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis includes annual, inter-annual inter-decadal variations, Mann-Kendall trend test, and drought frequency. The study also evaluated the relationship between Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and precipitation patterns during ENSO positive, normal and negative phases. The results show two distinct seasons of precipitation in Quelimane, the wet season extending between December and April and the dry season extending from May to November. ENSO was found to influence the inter-annual variations of precipitation during the wet season, with warm ENSO (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) events tending to reduce and increase the precipitation amounts, respectively. Decreasing trends in inter-annual variations of precipitation and increase of drought frequency and severity are highlighted in this study. Both decreasing trend of inter-annual variations and increasing of drought frequency and severity have intensified after the 1970s climate shift. These intensifications seem to be associated with the strengthening of ENSO after the 1970s climate shift. The results of the present study may be useful for the design of the climate change adaptation plans in central Mozambique.

An El Nino That“Failed to Appear”,an El Nino That Was“Hiding”and a Prediction of the Next El Nino

This paper discusses why model predictions of El Ni&#241o events fail. We begin by commenting on a recent retrospective about the failed prediction of an El Ni&#241o during 1975 McPhaden et al. state that “for all the advances in seasonal forecasting over the past 40 years, the fundamental problem of skillfully predicting the development of ENSO events and their consequences still challenges the scientific community.” In a second paper McPhaden, this time alone, discusses the case of a “monster” El Ni&#241o “that failed to materialize in 2014”. Unbeknown to McPhaden, these two climate “nonevents” have already been discussed and “explained” in some details in papers that report that the climate system consists of a series of finite time segments bounded by abrupt climate shifts. These finite time segments are phase-locked to the 2nd or 3rd subharmonic of an annual forcing. This paper will be an updated review of these “explanations”. Additionally, we note that the climate system is presently (August 2017) in a phase-locked state of period 3 years that began in 2009 to make a qualified prediction: The next El Ni&#241o will occur during boreal winter of 2018 unless this phase-locked state terminates before then.

Observation of Phase-Locked States in the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation(AMO)

We report that the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) shows the same phase-locked states of period 2 and 3 years that have been reported in many other climate indices. In addition, we find that the report by Muller, Curry et al. of an oscillation in the AMO of 9.1 years is a misinterpretation of a maximum in the Fourier spectrum.

When Will the Next El Nino Occur?

There is great interest in knowing when a future El Ni&#241o will occur. Most physical models forecast the future based on climate data from the recent past—about a year. The forecasted future is also a fraction of a year. This approach to predicting the future does not use the fact that the climate system may be in a phase-locked state in which sinusoidal oscillations of 2 or 3 years are observed. These states can last many cycles. Thus, if the climate system is in a phase-locked state, one may be able to make definite statements about the future independent of physical models. Douglass, Knox, Curtiss, Geise and Ray (DKCGR) have used the fact that the climate system is presently in a phase-loxked state of period 3 years to state (December 2016) that the next El Ni&#241o episode may show a maximum at about November of 2018. We present an updated analysis and state (September 2018) that if the climate system remains in a phase-locked state of period 3 years there will be an El Ni&#241o maximum at about November 2018. If that happens, there could be another El Ni&#241o maximum at about November 2021.

The Decadal Shift of the Summer Climate in the Late 1980s over Eastern China and Its Possible Causes

In this paper, it is pointed out that a notable decadal shift of, the summer climate in eastern China occurred in the late 1980s. In association with this decadal climate shift, after the late 1980s more precipitation appeared in the southern region of eastern China （namely South China）, the western Pacific subtropical high stretched farther westward with a larger south-north extent, and a strengthened anticyclone at 850 hPa appeared in the northwestern Pacific. The decadal climate shift of the summer precipitation in South China was accompanied with decadal changes of the Eurasian snow cover in boreal spring and sea surface temperature （SST） in western North Pacific in boreal summer in the late 1980s. After the late 1980s, the spring Eurasian snow cover apparently became less and the summer SST in western North Pacific increased obviously, which were well correlated with the increase of the South China precipitation. The physical processes are also investigated on how the summer precipitation in China was affected by the spring Eurasian snow cover and summer SST in western North Pacific. The change of the spring Eurasian snow cover could excite a wave-train in higher latitudes, which lasted from spring to summer. Because of the wave-train, an abnormal high appeared over North China and a weak depression over South China, leading to more precipitation in South China. The increase of the summer SST in the western North Pacific reduced the land-sea thermal contrast and thus weakened the East Asian summer monsoon, also leading to more precipitation in South China.

Interdecadal Change in the Eurasia–Pacific Anti-Phase Relation of Atmospheric Mass and Its Possible Link with PDO

Based on the known climatic shift that occurred in 1976, we divide the present study period into two epochs： epoch-I, for 1958 1976; and epoch-II, for 1977-2002. Using ERA-40 and the 20th century reanalysis data, we in- vestigate the interdecadal change in the Eurasia-Pacific anti-phase relation （EPAR） pattern of atmospheric mass （AM） during boreal winter before and after 1976. It is found that anomalous AM over lands is highly and negatively correlated with anomalous AM over oceans in the Northern Hemisphere during the winter season. This correlation does not change much from epoch-I to epoch-II. However, the correlation pattern of surface air pressure anomalies with variations of anomalous AM over lands changes remarkably from epoch-I to epoch-lI; the EPAR pattern emerges evidently in the later period, whereas it is not significant in epoch-I. The occurrence of the EPAR pattern in epoch-II may be attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. The PDO may modulate the EPAR pattern in two ways. Firstly, the interdecadal component of the PDO as a background may modulate the intensities of the Aleut- ian low, East Asian trough, and westerly flow, acting as a waveguide during the warm phase （epoch-Ⅱ） of the PDO. Secondly, the interannual variations of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific, in association with the PDO, may affect the interannual variations of AM, which facilitates the existence of the EPAR pattern in epoch-Ⅱ only. With the teleconnection pattern having changed before and after 1976, winter climate anomalies, including rain- fall and temperature, are found to be different in many regions in the Northern Hemisphere between epoch-I and epoch-Ⅱ. All the results of the present work are meaningful for a better understanding of climate anomalies during boreal winter.

A possible bias of simulating the post-2000 changing ENSO

Since the late 1990s, a climate shift has occurred over the tropical Pacific that is characterized with a La Nifia-like mean state. Coincident with this climate shift, climate models＇ skills in predicting the El Nifio Southern Oscillation （ENSO） events in the 2000s are sig- nificantly lower than in the 1980s-1990s, A common bias is likely to exist in contemporary ENSO models that got amplified after the climate shift. In this study, we identify this model bias to be the wind-sea surface temperature coupling processes over the tropical Pacific. Evidence is presented to show that this coupling process experienced an obvious shift around year 2000 in its coupling strength and coupling center. A simple ENSO coupled model is used to demonstrate that the changing properties of the post-2000 ENSO events can be more realistically simulated if this model bias is alleviated.