Bayesian discriminant analysis for prediction of coal and gas outbursts and application

Based on the principle of Bayesian discriminant analysis, we established a model of Bayesian discriminant analysis for predicting coal and gas outbursts. We selected five major indices which affect outbursts, i.e., initial speed of methane diffusion, a consistent coal coefficient, gas pressure, destructive style of coal and mining depth, as discriminating factors of the model. In our model, we divided the type of coal and gas outbursts into four grades regarded as four normal populations. We then obtained the corresponding discriminant functions through training a set of data from engineering examples as learning samples and evaluated their criteria by a back substitution method to verify the optimal properties of the model. Finally, we applied the model to the prediction of coal and gas outbursts in the Yunnan Enhong Mine. Our results coincided completely with the actual situation. These results show that a model of Bayesian discriminant analysis has excellent recognition performance, high prediction accuracy and a low error rate and is an effective method to predict coal and gas outbursts.

Research on coal structure indices to coal and gas outbursts in Pingdingshan Mine Area,China

According to the feature that coal and gas outbursts is controlled by coal structure in Pingdingshan mine area, based on the study of the distribution law of disturbed coal in Mine Area and the macroscopic characteristics of coal structure, the characteristics and genesis to micro-pore of disturbed coal, the relationship between the type of coal structure and gas parameter, and the structural feature of coal at outbursts sites are mainly explored in this paper. Further, the steps and methods are put forward that coal structure indices applied to forecast coal and gas outbursts.

Catastrophic mechanism of coal and gas outbursts and their prevention and control

Based on the engineering observations of coal and gas outbursts during mining processes and the experimental results,we built a thin plate mechanical model for layered and spalled coal bodies.We studied the mechanical mechanism of outbursts,due to instability,of thin plates of coal rocks under the action of in-plane load and normal load,by using the catastrophe theory.The total potential function is derived for the layered rock system,the cusp catastrophe model for the system is established,the bifurcation set that makes the system unstable is given,the process in which gradual change of action forces leads to catastrophic change of state is analyzed,and the effect of movement path of point(P,q) in the control space on the stability of rock plate is analyzed.The study results show that during the process of coal mining,the stability of the layered coal bodies depends not only on its physical properties and dimensions but also on the magnitudes and changing paths of the in-plane load and the normal load.When the gas in the coal bodies ahead of the mining face is pre-drained,the gas pressure can be reduced and the normal load q can be lowered.Consequently,disasters such as coal and gas outbursts can be effectively prevented.

Research on Geological Structure Mark of Coal and Gas Outbursts in Pingdingshan Mining Area

Based on the study of regional displaying rules of coal and gas outburst controlled by geological structure in Pingdingshan mining area, the geological structure features in outburst sites were investigated emphatically. The combination type, orientation and least seam thickness in outburst sites were put forward. This research provides a geological mark for forecasting gas outbursts in deep mining.

Study of coal and gas outbursts by numerical modeling approach

Abstract During mining or road-way development, the distribution of stress and coal pore pressure in the coal face and rib around the new opening will change, under certain conditions, dynamic failure of coal in the form of an outburst can occur. In the modeling studies presented in this paper, an outburst was considered to consist of three distinct stages： preinitiation, initiation and post-initiation, which takes into account the major processes and mechanisms that can influence both outburst-proneness and post-initiation outburst behavior. The model has been applied to simulate the effects of mechanisms in the coal matrix, coal strength, coal damage, geological structures on outbursts. The model constructed using the FLAC software, which were undertaken to research the effects on outbursts of coal strength pressure gradient, and other factors.

Microseismic Monitoring Data Fusion Algorithm and Coal and Gas Outbursts Prediction

The prediction study on coal and gas outbursts is carried out by monitoring some indices which are sensitive to the initiation of coal and gas outbursts. The values and changing roles of the indices are the foundations of coal and gas outbursts prediction. But now, only the data of ere key monitoring station is used in the coal and gas outbursts prediction practice, and the other data are ignored. In order to overcome the human factor and make full use of the monitoring information, the technique of multi-sensor target tracking is proposed to deal with the microseismic informatiion. With the results of microseismic events, the activities of geological structure, fracure-depth of roof and floor, and the location of gas channel are obtained. These studies indicate that it is considerably possible to predict the coal and gas outbursts using microseismic monitoring with its inherent ability to remotely monitor the progressive failure caused by mining.

Regression analysis of major parameters affecting the intensity of coal and gas outbursts in laboratory

Estimating the intensity of outbursts of coal and gas is important as the intensity and frequency of outbursts of coal and gas tend to increase in deep mining. Fully understanding the major factors contributing to coal and gas outbursts is significant in the evaluation of the intensity of the outburst. In this paper, we discuss the correlation between these major factors and the intensity of the outburst using Analysis of Variance(ANOVA) and Contingency Table Analysis(CTA). Regression analysis is used to evaluate the impact of these major factors on the intensity of outbursts based on physical experiments. Based on the evaluation, two simple models in terms of multiple linear and nonlinear regression were constructed for the prediction of the intensity of the outburst. The results show that the gas pressure and initial moisture in the coal mass could be the most significant factors compared to the weakest factor-porosity. The P values from Fisher's exact test in CTA are: moisture(0.019), geostress(0.290), porosity(0.650), and gas pressure(0.031). P values from ANOVA are moisture(0.094), geostress(0.077), porosity(0.420), and gas pressure(0.051). Furthermore, the multiple nonlinear regression model(RMSE: 3.870) is more accurate than the linear regression model(RMSE: 4.091).

Prediction method for risks of coal and gas outbursts based on spatial chaos theory using gas desorption index of drill cuttings

Based on the evolution of geological dynamics and spatial chaos theory, we proposed the advanced prediction an advanced prediction method of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings to predict coal and gas outbursts. We investigated and verified the prediction method by a spatial series data of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings obtained from the 113112 coal roadway at the Shitai Mine. Our experimental results show that the spatial distribution of the gas desorption index of drill cuttings has some chaotic charac- teristics, which implies that the risk of coal and gas outbursts can be predicted by spatial chaos theory. We also found that a proper amount of sample data needs to be chosen in order to ensure the accuracy and practical maneuverability of prediction. The relative prediction error is small when the prediction pace is chosen carefully. In our experiments, it turned out that the optimum number of sample points is 80 and the optimum prediction pace 30. The corresponding advanced prediction pace basically meets the requirements of engineering applications.

A Fluid-Structure Interaction Simulation of Coal and Gas Outbursts Based on the Interaction between the Gas Pressure and Deformation of a Coal-Rock Mass

Based on the theories of the gas seepage in coal seams and the deformation of the coal-rock medium,the gas seepage field in coal-rock mass is coupled with the deformation field of the coal-rock mass to establish a fluidstructure interaction model for the interaction between coal gas and coal-rock masses.The outburst process in coal-rock masses under the joint action of gas pressure and crustal stress is simulated using the material point method.The simulation results show the changes in gas pressure,velocity distribution,maximum principal stress distribution,and damage distribution during the process of the coal and gas outburst,as well as themovement and accumulation of coal-rock masses after the occurrence of the outburst.It was found that the gas pressure gradient was greatest at theworking face after the occurrence of the outburst,the gas pressures and pressure gradients at each location within the coal seamgradually decreased with time,and the damage distribution was essentially the same as the minimum principal stress distribution.The simulation further revealed that the outburst first occurred in themiddle of the tunnel excavation face and that the speed at which particles of coal mass were ejected was highest at the center and decreased toward the upper and lower sides.The study provides a scientific basis for enhancing our understanding of the mechanism behind coal and gas outbursts,as well as their prevention and control.

Response characteristics of gas pressure under simultaneous static and dynamic load:Implication for coal and gas outburst mechanism

Coal and gas outbursts are dynamic disasters in which a large mass of gas and coal suddenly emerges in a mining space within a split second.The interaction between the gas pressure and stress environment is one of the key factors that induce coal and gas outbursts.In this study,first,the coupling relationship between the gas pressure in the coal body ahead of the working face and the dynamic load was investigated using experimental observations,numerical simulations,and mine-site investigations.It was observed that the impact rate of the dynamic load on the gas-bearing coal can significantly change the gas pressure.The faster the impact rate,the speedier the increase in gas pressure.Moreover,the gas pressure rise was faster closer to the impact interface.Subsequently,based on engineering background,we proposed three models of stress and gas pressure distribution in the coal body ahead of the working face:static load,stress disturbance,and dynamic load conditions.Finally,the gas pressure distribution and outburst mechanism were investigated.The high concentration of gas pressure appearing at the coal body ahead of the working face was caused by the dynamic load.The gas pressure first increased gradually to a peak value and then decreased with increasing distance from the working face.The increase in gas pressure plays a major role in outburst initiation by resulting in the ability to more easily reach the critical points needed for outburst initiation.Moreover,the stronger the dynamic load,the greater the outburst initiation risk.The results of this study provide practical guidance for the early warning and prevention of coal and gas outbursts.

Mechanism of gas pressure action during the initial failure of coal containing gas and its application for an outburst inoculation

Faced with the continuous occurrence of coal and gas outburst(hereinafter referred to as“outburst”)disasters,as a main controlling factor in the evolution process of an outburst,for gas pressure,it is still unclear about the phased characteristics of the coupling process with in situ stress,which induce coal damage and instability.Therefore,in the work based on the mining stress paths induced by typical outburst accidents,the gradual and sudden change of three-dimensional stress is taken as the background for the mechanical reconstruction of the disaster process.Then the true triaxial physical experiments are conducted on the damage and instability of coal containing gas under multiple stress paths.Finally,the response characterization between coal damage and gas pressure has been clarified,revealing the mechanism of action of gas pressure during the initial failure of coals.And the main controlling mechanism during the outburst process is elucidated in the coupling process of in situ stress with gas pressure.The results show that during the process of stress loading and unloading,the original gas pressure enters the processes of strengthening and weakening the action ability successively.And the strengthening effect continues to the period of large-scale destruction of coals.The mechanical process of gas pressure during the initial failure of coals can be divided into three stages:the enhancement of strengthening action ability,the decrease of strengthening action ability,and the weakening action ability.The entire process is implemented by changing the dominant action of in situ stress into the dominant action of gas pressure.The failure strength of coals is not only affected by its original mechanical strength,but also by the stress loading and unloading paths,showing a particularly significant effect.Three stages can be divided during outburst inoculation process.That is,firstly,the coals suffer from initial damage through the dominant action of in situ stress with synergy of gas pressure;secondly,the coals with spallation of structural division are generated through the dominant action of gas pressure with synergy of in situ stress,accompanied by further fragmentation;and finally,the fractured coals suffer from fragmentation and pulverization with the gas pressure action.Accordingly,the final broken coals are ejected out with the gas action,initiating an outburst.The research results can provide a new perspective for deepening the understanding of coal and gas outburst mechanism,laying a theoretical foundation for the innovation of outburst prevention and control technologies.

Elimination mechanism of coal and gas outburst based on geo‑dynamic system with stress–damage–seepage interactions

Coal and gas outburst is a complex dynamic disaster during coal underground mining.Revealing the disaster mechanism is of great signifcance for accurate prediction and prevention of coal and gas outburst.The geo-dynamic system of coal and gas outburst is proposed.The framework of geo-dynamic system is composed of gassy coal mass,geological dynamic environment and mining disturbance.Equations of stress–damage–seepage interaction for gassy coal mass is constructed to resolve the outburst elimination process by gas extraction with boreholes through layer in foor roadway.The results show the occurrence of outburst is divided into the evolution process of gestation,formation,development and termination of geo-dynamic system.The scale range of outburst occurrence is determined,which provides a spatial basis for the prevention and control of outburst.The formation criterion and instability criterion of coal and gas outburst are established.The formation criterion F1 is defned as the scale of the geo-dynamic system,and the instability criterion F2 is defned as the scale of the outburst geo-body.According to the geo-dynamic system,the elimination mechanism of coal and gas outburst—‘unloading+depressurization’is established,and the gas extraction by boreholes through layer in foor roadway for outburst elimination is given.For the research case,when the gas extraction is 120 days,the gas pressure of the coal seam is reduced to below 0.4 MPa,and the outburst danger is eliminated efectively.

In-situ gas contents of a multi-section coal seam in Sydney basin for coal and gas outburst management

The gas content is crucial for evaluating coal and gas outburst potential in underground coal mining. This study focuses on investigating the in-situ coal seam gas content and gas sorption capacity in a representative coal seam with multiple sections (A1, A2, and A3) in the Sydney basin, where the CO_(2) composition exceeds 90%. The fast direct desorption method and associated devices were described in detail and employed to measure the in-situ gas components (Q_(1), Q_(2), and Q_(3)) of the coal seam. The results show that in-situ total gas content (Q_(T)) ranges from 9.48 m^(3)/t for the A2 section to 14.80 m^(3)/t for the A3 section, surpassing the Level 2 outburst threshold limit value, thereby necessitating gas drainage measures. Among the gas components, Q_(2) demonstrates the highest contribution to Q_(T), ranging between 55% and 70%. Furthermore, high-pressure isothermal gas sorption experiments were conducted on coal samples from each seam section to explore their gas sorption capacity. The Langmuir model accurately characterizes CO_(2) sorption behavior, with ft coefcients (R^(2)) greater than 0.99. Strong positive correlations are observed between in-situ gas content and Langmuir volume, as well as between residual gas content (Q_(3)) and sorption hysteresis. Notably, the A3 seam section is proved to have a higher outburst propensity due to its higher Q_(1) and Q_(2) gas contents, lower sorption hysteresis, and reduced coal toughness f value. The insights derived from the study can contribute to the development of efective gas management strategies and enhance the safety and efciency of coal mining operations.

A coupled DEM and LBM model for simulation of outbursts of coal and gas

An outburst of coal and gas is a major hazard in underground coal mining. It is generally accepted that an outburst occurs when certain conditions of stress, coal gassiness and physical-mechanical properties of coal are met. Outbursting is recognized as a two-step process, i.e., initiation and development. In this paper, we present a fully-coupled solid and fluid code to model the entire process of an outburst. The deformation, failure and fracture of solid （coal） are modeled with the discrete element method, and the flow of fluid （gas and water） such as free flow and Darcy flow are modeled with the lattice Boltzmann method. These two methods are coupled in a two-way process, i.e., the solid part provides a moving boundary condition and transfers momentum to the fluid, while the fluid exerts a dragging force upon the solid. Gas desorption from coal occurs at the solid-fluid boundary, and gas diffusion is implemented in the solid code where particles are assumed to be porous. A simple 2D example to simulate the process of an outburst with the model is also presented in this paper to demonstrate the capability of the coupled model.

Determination of indices and critical values of gas parameters of the first gas outburst in a coal seam of the Xieqiao Mine

Based on the important role in mine safety played by parameters of the first gas outburst, we propose a method of combining historic data, theoretical analysis and experimental research for the purpose of crit- ical values of gas parameters of the first gas outburst in a coal seam of the Xieqiao Mine. According to a characteristic analysis and a summary of the rules of coal and gas outbursts in the No.8 coal seam of a Hua- inan mine, we have investigated their effect on coal and gas outbursts in terms such as ground stress, gas, and coal structure. We have selected gas parameters and determined the critical values of each of the fol- lowing indices： gas content as 7.7 m^3/t, tectonic coal as 0.8 m thick, the absolute gas emission as 2 m3/min, the rate of change as 0.7 m3/min, the gas desorption index of a drilling chip KI as 0.26 mL/（g min^1/2） and the values of desorption indexes Ah2 as 200 Pa. From a verification of the production, the results indicate that application of each index and their critical values significantly improve the level of safety in the pro- duction process, relieve the burden upon the mine, save much labor and bring clear economic benefits.

Mechanism investigation on coal and gas outburst: An overview

Coal and gas outburst is a frequent dynamic disaster during underground coal mining activities.After about 150 years of exploration,the mechanisms of outbursts remain unclear to date.Studies on outburst mechanisms worldwide focused on the physicochemical and mechanical properties of outburst-prone coal,laboratory-scale outburst experiments and numerical modeling,mine-site investigations,and doctrines of outburst mechanisms.Outburst mechanisms are divided into two categories:single-factor and multi-factor mechanisms.The multi-factor mechanism is widely accepted,but all statistical phenomena during a single outburst cannot be explained using present knowledge.Additional topics about outburst mechanisms are proposed by summarizing the phenomena that need precise explanation.The most appealing research is the microscopic process of the interaction between coal and gas.Modern physical-chemical methods can help characterize the natural properties of outburst-prone coal.Outburst experiments can compensate for the deficiency of first-hand observation at the scene.Restoring the original outburst scene by constructing a geomechanical model or numerical model and reproducing the entire outburst process based on mining environment conditions,including stratigraphic distribution,gas occurrence,and geological structure,are important.Future studies can explore outburst mechanisms at the microscale.

Coal and gas outburst dynamic system

Coal and gas outburst is an extremely complex dynamic disaster in coal mine production process which will damage casualties and equipment facilities, and disorder the ventilation system by suddenly ejecting a great amount of coal and gas into roadway or working face. This paper analyzed the interaction among the three essential elements of coal and gas outburst dynamic system. A stress-seepage-damage coupling model was established which can be used to simulate the evolution of the dynamical system, and then the size scale of coal and gas outburst dynamical system was investigated. Results show that the dynam- ical system is consisted of three essential elements, coal-gas medium （material basis）, geology dynamic environment （internal motivation） and mining disturbance （external motivation）. On the case of CI 3 coal seam in Panyi Mine, the dynamical system exists in the range of 8-12 m in front of advancing face. The size scale will be larger where there are large geologic structures. This research plays an important guid- ing role for developing measures of coal and gas outburst prediction and prevention.

Similarity criteria and coal-like material in coal and gas outburst physical simulation

Coal and gas outburst is one of the main gas hazards in coal mines. However, due to the risks of the coal and gas outburst, the field test is difficult to complete. Therefore, an effective approach to studying the mechanism and development of outburst is to conduct the similar physical simulation. However, the similarity criteria and similar materials in outburst are the key factors which restrict the development of physical simulation. To solve those problems, this paper has established similarity criteria base on mechanics model, solid-fluid coupling model and energy model, and presented high similar materials. Combining with three groups of similar number, and considering similar mechanical parameters and deformation and failure regularity, the similarity criteria of outburst is determined on the basis of the energy model. According to those criteria, we put forward a similar material consists of pulverized coal, cement, sand, activated carbon, and water. The similar material has high compressive strength and the accordant characteristics with the raw coal, include density, porosity, adsorption, desorption. The new research is promising for preventing and controlling gas hazards in the future.

Preventing Coal and Gas Outburst Using Methane Hydration

According to the characteristics of the methane hydrate condensing and accumulating methane, authors put forward a new technique thought way to prevent the accident of coal and gas outburst by urging the methane in the coal seams to form hydrate. The paper analyzes the feasibility of forming the methane hydrate in the coal seam from the several sides, such as, temperature,pressure, and gas components, and the primary trial results indicate the problems should be settled before the industrialization appliance realized.

Application of the catastrophe progression method in predicting coal and gas outburst

Based on catastrophe theory,we used the catastrophe progression method to predict the risk of coal and gas outbursts in coal mines.According to the major factors affecting coal and gas outbursts,we built a comprehensive evaluation index system and a coal and gas outburst prediction model.In addition,we performed a standard transformation for each index system;based on the degree the various indices affect the risk of an outburst,to make the data dimensionless.Based on the outburst data from eight mines,we determined catastrophe progression values and verified these values.The results show that:1) converting multi-dimensional problems into one-dimensional problems using this catastrophe progression method can simplify the steps of predicting coal and gas outbursts;2) when pre-determined catastrophe progression values are used to predict coal and gas outbursts,the predicting accuracy rate can be as high as 87.5%;3) the various coal mines have different factors inducing outbursts with varying importance of these factors and 4) the catastrophe progression values,calculated based on these factors,can be used effectively to predict the risk of outbursts in coal mines.