According to the analysis on the characteristics of historic earthquakes in Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the historical earthquakes in the studied area are divided into two kinds of comparatively sa...According to the analysis on the characteristics of historic earthquakes in Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the historical earthquakes in the studied area are divided into two kinds of comparatively safe class and comparatively dangerous class. Then the statistical result of earthquake class, the characteristics of geo-graphical distribution and geological structures are studied. The study shows: a) In Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the majority of historical strong earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class, only 13.8% belong to comparatively dangerous class; b) Most historical earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class in the land area of Jiangsu, eastern sea area of Yangtze River mouth and northern depression of South Huanghai Sea region. However, along the coast of middle Jiangsu Province and in the sea area of South Huanghai Sea, the distribution of historical earthquake classes is complex and the earthquake series of comparatively dan-gerous class and comparatively safe class are equivalent in number; c) In the studied area, the statistical results of historical earthquake classes and the characteristics of spatial distribution accord very well with the real case of present-day earthquake series. It shows that the seismic activity in the region has the characteristic of succession, and the result from this study can be used as a reference for early postseismic judgment in the earthquake emer-gency work in Jiangsu Province.展开更多
The study has examined the tempo-spatial patterns of cultivated land use change in Jiangsu province. A principal component analysis (PCA) of 18 selected indicators of cultivated land use during the period 1970-2010 ...The study has examined the tempo-spatial patterns of cultivated land use change in Jiangsu province. A principal component analysis (PCA) of 18 selected indicators of cultivated land use during the period 1970-2010 identified 2 main pat- terns of change in planting productivity and economic efficiency. A major shift from production-centered pattern to profit-oriented one occurred in 1984, the time of grain yield surplus and the mitigation of population pressure. In response to the impending Opened Market System, there was a notable tendency of higher efficiency and less productivity since 1997, as well as remarkable regional disparity of cultivated land use change spatially. It revealed a relative decrease in grain cropping share, crop- ping scale and cultivation intensity in South Jiangsu, especially in Tai-Lake region, and the reverse in North Jiangsu. Some suggestions for the future were finally dis- cussed from the above findings.展开更多
Four images of 1991 AVHRR, 2003 and 2007 MODIS were used to extract waterlogging inundated water of three years, and three inundated water maps were overlaid to estimate waterlogging affected frequency. Based on wa-te...Four images of 1991 AVHRR, 2003 and 2007 MODIS were used to extract waterlogging inundated water of three years, and three inundated water maps were overlaid to estimate waterlogging affected frequency. Based on wa-terlogging affected frequency, waterlogging hazard of pixel scale was assessed. According to the weighed score of area percentage of different waterlogging affected frequency in 13 counties/cities of Lixiahe region, waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. Waterlogging affected frequency map and 1km×1km grid landuse map were used to assess waterlogging risk of pixel scale; and then waterlogging risk rank of every county/city was assessed by the similar method by which waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. High risk region is located mainly in core zone of Lixiahe hinterland, medium risk region is adjacent to high risk region, and low risk region is located in the most outlying area of risk zone and mainly in south to middle part of Lixiahe region. Xinghua and Gaoyou belong to high risk city, Jiangyan belongs to medium risk city, and the other counties/cities have low or lower waterlogging risk. The method of assessing waterlogging risk in this paper is simple and applicable. This paper can provide guidance for the waterlogging risk analysis in broader area of Huaihe River Basin.展开更多
In this paper,the aquatic chemical characteristics in the Hangzhou Bay,Xiangshan Bay and Leqing Bay along the coastal region of Zhejiang Province are discussed . Results show that the seasonal variations of chemical e...In this paper,the aquatic chemical characteristics in the Hangzhou Bay,Xiangshan Bay and Leqing Bay along the coastal region of Zhejiang Province are discussed . Results show that the seasonal variations of chemical elements are obvious. The distribution of silicate in Hangzhou Bay and contents of dissolved oxygen and nutrient in the Xiangshan Bay are found to be unusual in winter. Correlations among the elements are complex. The content of nutrient in the Hangzhou Bay is higher than that in Xiangshan Bay and the content of nutrient in the Xiangshan Bay is higher than that in the Leqing Bay . The variation of the ratio of N/P is obvious. This reflects the aquatic chemical characteristics in the bay. Finally, this paper also discusses the reason why the aquatic chemical characteristics in the bays are unusual.展开更多
Development of coastal ecotourism has been a,focus of Shandong government, and the suitability evaluation of regional eoastai ecotourism is crucial for the reasonable plan and sustainable development of Shandong coast...Development of coastal ecotourism has been a,focus of Shandong government, and the suitability evaluation of regional eoastai ecotourism is crucial for the reasonable plan and sustainable development of Shandong coastal ecotourism. By using MATLAB language to establish a SOM neural network model, this' paper evaluates the eoastal ecotourism suitability of four regions, Qingdao. Yantai, Weihai and Rizhao of Shandong Province and divides 33 subordinate regions of those four cities into four categories, i.e. regions poorly suitable for ecotourism resources, regions highly suitable for coastal ecotourism, regions secondly suitable for coastal ecotourism, regions ordinarily suitable.for coastal ecotourism, Related suggestions on development of regional coastal ecotourism have been given in the final conclusions.展开更多
Owing to intensive human activities and the floods of the Huaihe River in historic peiod, the contiguous region of Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and Anhui provinces is suffering from a variety of environmental problems and...Owing to intensive human activities and the floods of the Huaihe River in historic peiod, the contiguous region of Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and Anhui provinces is suffering from a variety of environmental problems and naturaldisasters, of which water pollution and drought-flood disasters are most observable. Considering the special location andenvironmental status of the contiguous region, advices are proposed in the paper: perfecting trans-regional managementssystem of water environment incorporating basin management agencies in local government activities; strengthening cooperation of two agencies: water conservancy agency and environment protection agency; enhancing integrated control ofwater pollution and flood-drought disasters; taking the interests of the whole river into acount and paying attention to bothstorage and drainage; broadening sources of water supply and inceasing water delivery; controlling pollutant discharge,developing water saving production system.展开更多
According to the analysis on the characteristics of historic earthquakes in Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the historical earthquakes in the studied area are divided into two kinds of comparatively sa...According to the analysis on the characteristics of historic earthquakes in Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the historical earthquakes in the studied area are divided into two kinds of comparatively safe class and comparatively dangerous class. Then the statistical result of earthquake class, the characteristics of geo-graphical distribution and geological structures are studied. The study shows: a) In Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the majority of historical strong earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class, only 13.8% belong to comparatively dangerous class; b) Most historical earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class in the land area of Jiangsu, eastern sea area of Yangtze River mouth and northern depression of South Huanghai Sea region. However, along the coast of middle Jiangsu Province and in the sea area of South Huanghai Sea, the distribution of historical earthquake classes is complex and the earthquake series of comparatively dan-gerous class and comparatively safe class are equivalent in number; c) In the studied area, the statistical results of historical earthquake classes and the characteristics of spatial distribution accord very well with the real case of present-day earthquake series. It shows that the seismic activity in the region has the characteristic of succession, and the result from this study can be used as a reference for early postseismic judgment in the earthquake emer-gency work in Jiangsu Province.展开更多
Based on the theory of ecological efficiency,an empirical study on ecological efficiency and its changing path in Jiangsu Province during2005-2014 was conducted,and then the relationship between economic development a...Based on the theory of ecological efficiency,an empirical study on ecological efficiency and its changing path in Jiangsu Province during2005-2014 was conducted,and then the relationship between economic development and environmental pressure in the province was discussed by decoupling analysis. Finally,the main influencing factors of changes in ecological efficiency were analyzed by grey relational analysis method. The results showed that from 2005 to 2014,the resource efficiency of each indicator in Jiangsu Province fluctuated,while the environmental efficiency of most indicators increased slightly. The comprehensive resource efficiency and environmental efficiency also fluctuated,and the fluctuation range of the comprehensive environmental efficiency was larger than that of the comprehensive resource efficiency. Seen from the temporal evolution of ecological efficiency and circulation economy development pattern in Jiangsu Province,the leaping development mode was adopted in the province.The decoupling state of economic development and environmental pressure in Jiangsu Province was unstable,and they were in a state of strong decoupling,weak decoupling and expensive recoupling in most years. According to the results of grey relational analysis,comprehensive utilization of solid waste,industrial electricity consumption,electricity consumption of the whole society,domestic energy consumption,discharge of urban domestic sewage,and production of common industrial solid waste were the main influencing factors of changes in ecological efficiency in Jiangsu Province.展开更多
Sixteen surface sediment samples were collected and analysed to evaluate the residues of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from intertidal fiat in Jiangsu Province. Overall, 22 OCPs were detected with total concentra...Sixteen surface sediment samples were collected and analysed to evaluate the residues of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from intertidal fiat in Jiangsu Province. Overall, 22 OCPs were detected with total concentrations of OCPs ranging widely from 0.96 to 12.14 ng/g (dry wt). Total hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) and total dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) levels varied from 〈0.01 to 0.67 ng/g and from 0.23 to 4.85 ng/g, respectively. DDTs were the predominant compounds. The dominance of β-HCH indicated a history of HCH pollution. According to the ratios of (p,p'-DDD+p,p'-DDE)/p,p'DDT and o,p'-DDT/p,p'- DDT, new input of DDTs did not occur in most sites, and the main sources were historical usage of technical DDTs. OCPs such as dieldrin, endrin, p,p'-DDD, and p,p'-DDT exceeded the effects range low, showing adverse biological effects that would occasionally occur at some sites of the study area.展开更多
[ Objective] The study aimed to analyze and predict the suitable period of laver along the coastal areas of Jiangsu Province. [ Method ] TO enhance the ability of meteorology to service laver culture, using the modern...[ Objective] The study aimed to analyze and predict the suitable period of laver along the coastal areas of Jiangsu Province. [ Method ] TO enhance the ability of meteorology to service laver culture, using the modern weather forecast technology, agricultural weather prediction was de- veloped according to the demands for meteorological conditions during laver production. [ Result] From south to north, there were certain differ- ences in the suitable periods of laver culture, breeding and harvesting, with slight variations. The forecast of the first and last days of certain water temperature could provide scientific references for the meteorological service of laver culture, and the service effect became better after it was modi- fied with the aid of the medium-term and long-term weather prediction. [ Conclusion] The research can offer theoretical bases for the culture of laver along the coastal areas of Jiangsu Province.展开更多
A numerical model of the couphng between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province. The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm su...A numerical model of the couphng between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province. The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm surge during 5 typhoons, including two super typhoons, that landed in the Province. In the model, the atmospheric forcing fields are calculated with parametric wind and pressure models. The computational results, with average computed errors of 13 cm for the high astronomical tide levels and 20 cm for the high storm-tide levels, show that the model yields good simulations. Typhoon No. 5612, the most intense to land in China since 1949, is taken as the typical super typhoon for the de- sign of 5 typhoon routes, each landing at a different location along the coast. The possible extreme storm-tide levels along the coast are calculated by the model under the conditions of the 5 designed typhoon routes when they coincide with the spring tide. Results are compared with the high storm-tide levels due to the increase of the central atmospheric pressure at the base of a typical super typhoon, the change of tidal type, and the behavior of a Saomai-type typhoon. The results have practical significance for forecasting and minimization of damage during super typhoons.展开更多
The dynamics of regional convergence include spatial and temporal dimensions. Spatial Markov chain can be used to explore how regions evolve by considering both individual regions and their geographic neighbors. Based...The dynamics of regional convergence include spatial and temporal dimensions. Spatial Markov chain can be used to explore how regions evolve by considering both individual regions and their geographic neighbors. Based on per capita GDP data set of 77 counties from 1978 to 2000, this paper attempts to investigate the spatial-temporal dynamics of regional convergence in Jiangsu. First, traditional Markov matrix for five per capita GDP classes is constructed for later comparison. Moreover, each region’s spatial lag is derived by averaging all its neighbors’ per capita GDP data. Conditioning on per capita GDP class of its spatial lag at the beginning of each year, spatial Markov transition probabilities of each region are calculated accordingly. Quantitatively, for a poor region, the probability of moving upward is 3.3% if it is surrounded by its poor neighbors, and even increases to 18.4% if it is surrounded by its rich neighbors, but it goes down to 6.2% on average if ignoring regional context. For a rich region, the probability of moving down ward is 1.2% if it is surrounded by its rich neighbors, but increases to 3.0% if it is surrounded by its poor neighbors, and averages 1.5% irrespective of regional context. Spatial analysis of regional GDP class transitions indicates those 10 upward moves of both regions and their neighbors are unexceptionally located in the southern Jiangsu, while downward moves of regions or their neighbors are almost in the northern Jiangsu. These empirical results provide a spatial explanation to the "convergence clubs" detected by traditional Markov chain.展开更多
Since the economic reform in 1978, urban development in China has become much more rapid and the dynamic mechanisms of urbanization more diversified. The 'Bottom Up' strategy becomes as important as, or even m...Since the economic reform in 1978, urban development in China has become much more rapid and the dynamic mechanisms of urbanization more diversified. The 'Bottom Up' strategy becomes as important as, or even more important than, the 'Top Down' strategy as the dynamic mechanisms of regional urbanization. On the basis of major theories of development economics and regional economics, this paper analyzes the major dynamic mechanisms of regional urbanization in coastal area of Fujian Province from 1978 to 1989, and describes quantitatively the territorial differentiation of regional urbanization process under two major dynamic mechanisms using principal componet analysis.展开更多
基金Scientific and Technological Project of Social Development of Jiangsu Province (BS2002068).
文摘According to the analysis on the characteristics of historic earthquakes in Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the historical earthquakes in the studied area are divided into two kinds of comparatively safe class and comparatively dangerous class. Then the statistical result of earthquake class, the characteristics of geo-graphical distribution and geological structures are studied. The study shows: a) In Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the majority of historical strong earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class, only 13.8% belong to comparatively dangerous class; b) Most historical earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class in the land area of Jiangsu, eastern sea area of Yangtze River mouth and northern depression of South Huanghai Sea region. However, along the coast of middle Jiangsu Province and in the sea area of South Huanghai Sea, the distribution of historical earthquake classes is complex and the earthquake series of comparatively dan-gerous class and comparatively safe class are equivalent in number; c) In the studied area, the statistical results of historical earthquake classes and the characteristics of spatial distribution accord very well with the real case of present-day earthquake series. It shows that the seismic activity in the region has the characteristic of succession, and the result from this study can be used as a reference for early postseismic judgment in the earthquake emer-gency work in Jiangsu Province.
基金Supported by A Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)~~
文摘The study has examined the tempo-spatial patterns of cultivated land use change in Jiangsu province. A principal component analysis (PCA) of 18 selected indicators of cultivated land use during the period 1970-2010 identified 2 main pat- terns of change in planting productivity and economic efficiency. A major shift from production-centered pattern to profit-oriented one occurred in 1984, the time of grain yield surplus and the mitigation of population pressure. In response to the impending Opened Market System, there was a notable tendency of higher efficiency and less productivity since 1997, as well as remarkable regional disparity of cultivated land use change spatially. It revealed a relative decrease in grain cropping share, crop- ping scale and cultivation intensity in South Jiangsu, especially in Tai-Lake region, and the reverse in North Jiangsu. Some suggestions for the future were finally dis- cussed from the above findings.
基金Under the auspices of Ministry of Water Resources, P. R. China (No. [2001]29)
文摘Four images of 1991 AVHRR, 2003 and 2007 MODIS were used to extract waterlogging inundated water of three years, and three inundated water maps were overlaid to estimate waterlogging affected frequency. Based on wa-terlogging affected frequency, waterlogging hazard of pixel scale was assessed. According to the weighed score of area percentage of different waterlogging affected frequency in 13 counties/cities of Lixiahe region, waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. Waterlogging affected frequency map and 1km×1km grid landuse map were used to assess waterlogging risk of pixel scale; and then waterlogging risk rank of every county/city was assessed by the similar method by which waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. High risk region is located mainly in core zone of Lixiahe hinterland, medium risk region is adjacent to high risk region, and low risk region is located in the most outlying area of risk zone and mainly in south to middle part of Lixiahe region. Xinghua and Gaoyou belong to high risk city, Jiangyan belongs to medium risk city, and the other counties/cities have low or lower waterlogging risk. The method of assessing waterlogging risk in this paper is simple and applicable. This paper can provide guidance for the waterlogging risk analysis in broader area of Huaihe River Basin.
文摘In this paper,the aquatic chemical characteristics in the Hangzhou Bay,Xiangshan Bay and Leqing Bay along the coastal region of Zhejiang Province are discussed . Results show that the seasonal variations of chemical elements are obvious. The distribution of silicate in Hangzhou Bay and contents of dissolved oxygen and nutrient in the Xiangshan Bay are found to be unusual in winter. Correlations among the elements are complex. The content of nutrient in the Hangzhou Bay is higher than that in Xiangshan Bay and the content of nutrient in the Xiangshan Bay is higher than that in the Leqing Bay . The variation of the ratio of N/P is obvious. This reflects the aquatic chemical characteristics in the bay. Finally, this paper also discusses the reason why the aquatic chemical characteristics in the bays are unusual.
文摘Development of coastal ecotourism has been a,focus of Shandong government, and the suitability evaluation of regional eoastai ecotourism is crucial for the reasonable plan and sustainable development of Shandong coastal ecotourism. By using MATLAB language to establish a SOM neural network model, this' paper evaluates the eoastal ecotourism suitability of four regions, Qingdao. Yantai, Weihai and Rizhao of Shandong Province and divides 33 subordinate regions of those four cities into four categories, i.e. regions poorly suitable for ecotourism resources, regions highly suitable for coastal ecotourism, regions secondly suitable for coastal ecotourism, regions ordinarily suitable.for coastal ecotourism, Related suggestions on development of regional coastal ecotourism have been given in the final conclusions.
文摘Owing to intensive human activities and the floods of the Huaihe River in historic peiod, the contiguous region of Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan and Anhui provinces is suffering from a variety of environmental problems and naturaldisasters, of which water pollution and drought-flood disasters are most observable. Considering the special location andenvironmental status of the contiguous region, advices are proposed in the paper: perfecting trans-regional managementssystem of water environment incorporating basin management agencies in local government activities; strengthening cooperation of two agencies: water conservancy agency and environment protection agency; enhancing integrated control ofwater pollution and flood-drought disasters; taking the interests of the whole river into acount and paying attention to bothstorage and drainage; broadening sources of water supply and inceasing water delivery; controlling pollutant discharge,developing water saving production system.
文摘According to the analysis on the characteristics of historic earthquakes in Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the historical earthquakes in the studied area are divided into two kinds of comparatively safe class and comparatively dangerous class. Then the statistical result of earthquake class, the characteristics of geo-graphical distribution and geological structures are studied. The study shows: a) In Jiangsu Province and South Huanghai Sea region, the majority of historical strong earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class, only 13.8% belong to comparatively dangerous class; b) Most historical earthquakes belong to comparatively safe class in the land area of Jiangsu, eastern sea area of Yangtze River mouth and northern depression of South Huanghai Sea region. However, along the coast of middle Jiangsu Province and in the sea area of South Huanghai Sea, the distribution of historical earthquake classes is complex and the earthquake series of comparatively dan-gerous class and comparatively safe class are equivalent in number; c) In the studied area, the statistical results of historical earthquake classes and the characteristics of spatial distribution accord very well with the real case of present-day earthquake series. It shows that the seismic activity in the region has the characteristic of succession, and the result from this study can be used as a reference for early postseismic judgment in the earthquake emer-gency work in Jiangsu Province.
文摘Based on the theory of ecological efficiency,an empirical study on ecological efficiency and its changing path in Jiangsu Province during2005-2014 was conducted,and then the relationship between economic development and environmental pressure in the province was discussed by decoupling analysis. Finally,the main influencing factors of changes in ecological efficiency were analyzed by grey relational analysis method. The results showed that from 2005 to 2014,the resource efficiency of each indicator in Jiangsu Province fluctuated,while the environmental efficiency of most indicators increased slightly. The comprehensive resource efficiency and environmental efficiency also fluctuated,and the fluctuation range of the comprehensive environmental efficiency was larger than that of the comprehensive resource efficiency. Seen from the temporal evolution of ecological efficiency and circulation economy development pattern in Jiangsu Province,the leaping development mode was adopted in the province.The decoupling state of economic development and environmental pressure in Jiangsu Province was unstable,and they were in a state of strong decoupling,weak decoupling and expensive recoupling in most years. According to the results of grey relational analysis,comprehensive utilization of solid waste,industrial electricity consumption,electricity consumption of the whole society,domestic energy consumption,discharge of urban domestic sewage,and production of common industrial solid waste were the main influencing factors of changes in ecological efficiency in Jiangsu Province.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.40871216,41271466)
文摘Sixteen surface sediment samples were collected and analysed to evaluate the residues of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from intertidal fiat in Jiangsu Province. Overall, 22 OCPs were detected with total concentrations of OCPs ranging widely from 0.96 to 12.14 ng/g (dry wt). Total hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) and total dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) levels varied from 〈0.01 to 0.67 ng/g and from 0.23 to 4.85 ng/g, respectively. DDTs were the predominant compounds. The dominance of β-HCH indicated a history of HCH pollution. According to the ratios of (p,p'-DDD+p,p'-DDE)/p,p'DDT and o,p'-DDT/p,p'- DDT, new input of DDTs did not occur in most sites, and the main sources were historical usage of technical DDTs. OCPs such as dieldrin, endrin, p,p'-DDD, and p,p'-DDT exceeded the effects range low, showing adverse biological effects that would occasionally occur at some sites of the study area.
基金Supported by National Research Fund for Public Welfare (Meteorology) of China (GYHY201006029)Meteorological Scientific Research Open Fund of Jiangsu Province,China (ZD201108)
文摘[ Objective] The study aimed to analyze and predict the suitable period of laver along the coastal areas of Jiangsu Province. [ Method ] TO enhance the ability of meteorology to service laver culture, using the modern weather forecast technology, agricultural weather prediction was de- veloped according to the demands for meteorological conditions during laver production. [ Result] From south to north, there were certain differ- ences in the suitable periods of laver culture, breeding and harvesting, with slight variations. The forecast of the first and last days of certain water temperature could provide scientific references for the meteorological service of laver culture, and the service effect became better after it was modi- fied with the aid of the medium-term and long-term weather prediction. [ Conclusion] The research can offer theoretical bases for the culture of laver along the coastal areas of Jiangsu Province.
基金This Paper is supported by Zhejiang Provincial Science and Technology Plan Project (Grant No2006F12013)
文摘A numerical model of the couphng between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province. The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm surge during 5 typhoons, including two super typhoons, that landed in the Province. In the model, the atmospheric forcing fields are calculated with parametric wind and pressure models. The computational results, with average computed errors of 13 cm for the high astronomical tide levels and 20 cm for the high storm-tide levels, show that the model yields good simulations. Typhoon No. 5612, the most intense to land in China since 1949, is taken as the typical super typhoon for the de- sign of 5 typhoon routes, each landing at a different location along the coast. The possible extreme storm-tide levels along the coast are calculated by the model under the conditions of the 5 designed typhoon routes when they coincide with the spring tide. Results are compared with the high storm-tide levels due to the increase of the central atmospheric pressure at the base of a typical super typhoon, the change of tidal type, and the behavior of a Saomai-type typhoon. The results have practical significance for forecasting and minimization of damage during super typhoons.
基金Under the auspices ofthe National Natural Science Foundation of China (No .40301038)
文摘The dynamics of regional convergence include spatial and temporal dimensions. Spatial Markov chain can be used to explore how regions evolve by considering both individual regions and their geographic neighbors. Based on per capita GDP data set of 77 counties from 1978 to 2000, this paper attempts to investigate the spatial-temporal dynamics of regional convergence in Jiangsu. First, traditional Markov matrix for five per capita GDP classes is constructed for later comparison. Moreover, each region’s spatial lag is derived by averaging all its neighbors’ per capita GDP data. Conditioning on per capita GDP class of its spatial lag at the beginning of each year, spatial Markov transition probabilities of each region are calculated accordingly. Quantitatively, for a poor region, the probability of moving upward is 3.3% if it is surrounded by its poor neighbors, and even increases to 18.4% if it is surrounded by its rich neighbors, but it goes down to 6.2% on average if ignoring regional context. For a rich region, the probability of moving down ward is 1.2% if it is surrounded by its rich neighbors, but increases to 3.0% if it is surrounded by its poor neighbors, and averages 1.5% irrespective of regional context. Spatial analysis of regional GDP class transitions indicates those 10 upward moves of both regions and their neighbors are unexceptionally located in the southern Jiangsu, while downward moves of regions or their neighbors are almost in the northern Jiangsu. These empirical results provide a spatial explanation to the "convergence clubs" detected by traditional Markov chain.
文摘Since the economic reform in 1978, urban development in China has become much more rapid and the dynamic mechanisms of urbanization more diversified. The 'Bottom Up' strategy becomes as important as, or even more important than, the 'Top Down' strategy as the dynamic mechanisms of regional urbanization. On the basis of major theories of development economics and regional economics, this paper analyzes the major dynamic mechanisms of regional urbanization in coastal area of Fujian Province from 1978 to 1989, and describes quantitatively the territorial differentiation of regional urbanization process under two major dynamic mechanisms using principal componet analysis.