This paper introduces and represents conditional coherent risk measures as essential suprema of conditional expectations over a convex set of probability measures and as distorted expectations given a concave distorti...This paper introduces and represents conditional coherent risk measures as essential suprema of conditional expectations over a convex set of probability measures and as distorted expectations given a concave distortion function.A model is then developed for the bid and ask prices of a European-type asset by a conic formulation.The price process is governed by a modified geometric Brownian motion whose drift and diffusion coefficients depend on a Markov chain.The bid and ask prices of a European-type asset are then characterized using conic quantization.展开更多
发电量的多期投标组合是一个动态的优化问题,决策过程中常常呈现多期风险,因而对风险的度量也应该是动态的。条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)是一种静态一致性风险度量,不适用于对发电量的时间分解进行多期风险评估。该...发电量的多期投标组合是一个动态的优化问题,决策过程中常常呈现多期风险,因而对风险的度量也应该是动态的。条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)是一种静态一致性风险度量,不适用于对发电量的时间分解进行多期风险评估。该文提出一种动态一致性风险度量,考虑风险对未来投资收益波动的长期影响,将分位数作用于静态一致性风险度量来表征多期风险的动态特征,并采用分位数回归的方法,以各期CVaR的绝对偏差加权和最小为目标函数建立数学模型,该模型可同时应用于计及风险的发电量时间分解和空间分配计算。以水电厂短期优化调度为例,说明该风险度量指标的可行性和实用性。展开更多
文摘This paper introduces and represents conditional coherent risk measures as essential suprema of conditional expectations over a convex set of probability measures and as distorted expectations given a concave distortion function.A model is then developed for the bid and ask prices of a European-type asset by a conic formulation.The price process is governed by a modified geometric Brownian motion whose drift and diffusion coefficients depend on a Markov chain.The bid and ask prices of a European-type asset are then characterized using conic quantization.
文摘发电量的多期投标组合是一个动态的优化问题,决策过程中常常呈现多期风险,因而对风险的度量也应该是动态的。条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)是一种静态一致性风险度量,不适用于对发电量的时间分解进行多期风险评估。该文提出一种动态一致性风险度量,考虑风险对未来投资收益波动的长期影响,将分位数作用于静态一致性风险度量来表征多期风险的动态特征,并采用分位数回归的方法,以各期CVaR的绝对偏差加权和最小为目标函数建立数学模型,该模型可同时应用于计及风险的发电量时间分解和空间分配计算。以水电厂短期优化调度为例,说明该风险度量指标的可行性和实用性。
