This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(V...This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.展开更多
The extant literature has produced mixed evidence on the relationship between finan-cial development and ecological sustainability.This work addresses this conundrum by investigating financial development’s direct an...The extant literature has produced mixed evidence on the relationship between finan-cial development and ecological sustainability.This work addresses this conundrum by investigating financial development’s direct and indirect consequences on ecologi-cal quality utilizing the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)methodological approach.Our empirical analysis is based on the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations approach for South Africa between 1960 and 2020.The results,which used five distinct financial development measures,demonstrate that financial develop-ment boosts ecological integrity and environmental sustainability over the long and short terms.In the instance of South Africa,we additionally confirm the validity of the EKC theory.More importantly,the outcomes of the indirect channels demonstrate that financial development increases energy usage’s role in causing pollution while attenuating the detrimental impacts of economic growth,trade openness,and foreign direct investment on ecological quality.Moreover,the presence of an inadequate financial system is a requirement for the basis of the pollution haven hypothesis(PHH),which we examine using trade openness and foreign direct investment variables.PHH for both of these variables disappears when financial development crosses specified thresholds.Finally,industrial value addition destroys ecological quality while tech-nological innovation enhances it.This research provides some crucial policy recom-mendations and fresh perspectives for South Africa as it develops national initiatives to support ecological sustainability and reach its net zero emissions goal.展开更多
The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO_(2))reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization a...The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO_(2))reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization affects environmental quality,but the specifics of this relationship are still up for debate.Some scholars noted that fiscal decentralization might lead to a race to the top,whereas others contended that it would result in a race to the bottom.In light of the current debates in environmental and development economics,this study aims to provide insight into how this relationship may function in South Africa from 1960 to 2020.In contrast to the existing research,the present study uses a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation approach to assess the positive and negative changes in fiscal decentralization,scale effect,technique effect,technological innovation,foreign direct investment,energy consumption,industrial growth,and trade openness on CO_(2)emissions.The following are the main findings:(i)Fiscal decentralization had a CO_(2)emission reduction impact in the short and long run,highlighting the presence of the race to the top approach.(ii)Economic growth(as represented by the scale effect)eroded ecological integrity.However,its square(as expressed by technique effect)aided in strengthening ecological protection,validating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.(iii)CO_(2)emissions were driven by energy utilization,trade openness,industrial value-added,and foreign direct investment,whereas technological innovation boosted ecological integrity.Findings suggest that further fiscal decentralization should be undertaken through further devolution of power to local entities,particularly regarding environmental policy issues,to maintain South Africa’s ecological sustainability.South Africa should also establish policies to improve environmental sustainability by strengthening a lower layer of government and clarifying responsibilities at the national and local levels to fulfill the energy-saving functions of fiscal expenditures.展开更多
This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparativ...This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization,the related coeffecient is 0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97.And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious.Urbanization and economic growth are the long-term balanced relations.In the long-term balance,every 1% increment of urbanization can make 4.82% increment of GDP;In short-term balance,if the balance depart from the long-term balance at the i-th term,the model will take automatic reversal adjustment with-0.06 adjusting strength at the(i+1)th term,to make it move to the long-term balance.The economic growth onto urbanization is one-way causality relationship,the primary and secondary industry onto urbanization is also one-way causality relationship.However,the tertiary industry onto urbanization is both-way causality relationship.展开更多
Background:The present study examines the short term dynamics and long term equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of 17 countries in Western Europe as well as the world market,using time series techniques.M...Background:The present study examines the short term dynamics and long term equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of 17 countries in Western Europe as well as the world market,using time series techniques.Methods:Weekly returns of market benchmark indices of the respective countries are used from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of December 2013.Results:The study finds that the market returns of Austria,Belgium,the Netherlands,and France are relatively less dynamically interlinked as compared with Britain,Denmark,Finland,Germany,Portugal,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Greece,Ireland,Luxembourg,and Norway,which are quite dynamically interlinked within the region as well as with the MSCI world index.Conclusion:There exists a strong long run equilibrium relationship between the return distributions of the stock markets within the region.展开更多
Understanding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market is important because macroeconomic variables have a systematic effect on stock market returns.This study uses monthly data from India...Understanding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market is important because macroeconomic variables have a systematic effect on stock market returns.This study uses monthly data from India for the period from April 1994 to July 2018 to examine the long-run relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic variables.The empirical findings suggest that standard cointegration tests fail to identify any relationship among these variables.However,a transformation that extracts the actual functional relationship between these variables using the alternating conditional expectations algorithm of(J Am Stat Assoc 80:580–598,1985)identifies strong evidence of cointegration and indicates nonlinearity in the long-run relationship.Further,the continuous partial wavelet coherency model identifies strong coherency at a lower frequency for the transformed variables,establishing the fact that the long-run relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in India is nonlinear and time-varying.This evidence has far-reaching implications for understanding the dynamic relationships between the stock market and macroeconomic variables.展开更多
In order to explore the interrelated impacts of the economical communications between China and Hong Kong SAR, especially after the closer economic partnership arrangement (CEPA) and the Chinese yuan offshore financia...In order to explore the interrelated impacts of the economical communications between China and Hong Kong SAR, especially after the closer economic partnership arrangement (CEPA) and the Chinese yuan offshore financial business in Hong Kong banks in 2004, the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar are investigated as well-performing market signals that should reflect this historical transformation. With vector autoregressive models (VAR), the Johansen cointegration test and the Granger causality test on the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar adjusted by the consumer price index and inter-bank interest rates are examined. It is found that the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar after CEPA are in long-term equilibrium and Granger causality with each other, which means that the interrelationship of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar is more closely integrated after the implementation of the CEPA. In conclusion, the cooperation regarding bilateral trade and financial markets between China and Hong Kong SAR has been enhanced after 1997; furthermore, after the implementation of CEPA the interrelationship of the economies between China and Hong Kong SAR is significantly reinforced.展开更多
This paper demonstrates a significant,long-running relationship between stock prices and domestic interest rates in Turkey’s financial markets for the period of 2001 M1-2017 M4.Cointegration analysis is investigated ...This paper demonstrates a significant,long-running relationship between stock prices and domestic interest rates in Turkey’s financial markets for the period of 2001 M1-2017 M4.Cointegration analysis is investigated using the autoregressivedistributed lag bounds(ARDL Bounds)test and vector autoregressive cointegration.Additionally,cointegrating equations such as the fully modified ordinary least square,dynamic ordinary least squares,and canonical cointegrating regression are applied to check the long-run elasticities in the concerned relationship.The ARDL Bounds and Johansen Cointegration test results show that,dynamically,both prices are significantly related to each other.The cointegrating equation outcomes demonstrate elasticities whereby both coefficients have negative signs.Additionally,the same results are corroborated by the impulse response where all variables respond negatively to each other.展开更多
Based on the modern economic theory and the characteristics of China's energy consumption, this paper analyzes the determinants of energy demand in China, builds up a China's energy demand model, and examines ...Based on the modern economic theory and the characteristics of China's energy consumption, this paper analyzes the determinants of energy demand in China, builds up a China's energy demand model, and examines the long-run relationship between China's aggregate energy consumption and the main economic variables such as GDP by using the Johansen multivariate approach. It is found that there exists unique long-run relationship among the variables in the model over the sampling period. An error-correction model provides an appropriate framework for forecasting the short-run fluctuations in the aggregate demand of China.展开更多
An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm(AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting result...An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm(AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization,and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.展开更多
Today,many developing countries are facing severe shortage of electricity production in their economies which results into a widening gap between electricity production and consumption.This paper employs three-step me...Today,many developing countries are facing severe shortage of electricity production in their economies which results into a widening gap between electricity production and consumption.This paper employs three-step methodology of Unit Root,Johansen Cointegration,and Vector Error Correction Mechanism to examine whether there exists short-,long-run,uni-,or bi-directional causality among economic growth,electricity production,and inflation for three South Asian economies namely,India,Pakistan,and Bangladesh covering the period 1973-2014.This paper finds the neutrality hypothesis in the short run for India,Pakistan,and Bangladesh.For the long run,the test result indicates that different hypothesis exists for the three countries under the analysis.This implies that policies and strategies for increasing the installed capacity of electricity generation can lead towards prosperous economic growth in the long run.展开更多
As an industry representing soft power,the coordinated development between sports industry and tourism plays an important role in promoting economic growth. Using the cointegration theory,we carry out empirical test o...As an industry representing soft power,the coordinated development between sports industry and tourism plays an important role in promoting economic growth. Using the cointegration theory,we carry out empirical test of economic growth,the output value of sport and tourism income; using the coordination theory,we carry out the evaluation of the coordinated development between sports industry and tourism.It is found in the study that there is a long-term stable dynamic equilibrium relationship among economic growth,the output value of sport and tourism income. The sports industry and tourism in Henan Province have undergone six stages( imbalance-on the verge of imbalance- barely coordinated-primarily coordinated- moderately coordinated- well coordinated). In the process of coordinated development,sports industry significantly lags behind tourism,so it is necessary to strengthen the sports industry personnel's quality,and optimize the coordination between the sports industry and tourism,so as to promote economic development level.展开更多
Background:Banking is an important sector of Pakistan’s economy.It is general consideration that bank’s major activities saving and lending have positive impact on economic growth.So the aim of this study is to inve...Background:Banking is an important sector of Pakistan’s economy.It is general consideration that bank’s major activities saving and lending have positive impact on economic growth.So the aim of this study is to investigate this consideration and also investigate that either growth led deposits and credits,or deposit and credits led growth means the purpose of this study is to investigate the direction of this relationship.Methods:Johansen test of Co-integration and Granger Causality is employed by using time series data of Pakistan from 1961 to 2013.Results:The results show that two major activities of banking sector that are saving and lending don’t have any long run or short run causality towards economic growth so the general consideration of positive impact of these activities proved wrong in case of Pakistan.However there is unidirectional causality running from GDP growth to credit provided by banking sector which shows that economic prosperity or economic growth will have a major impact on lending activities of banks meaning that demand following hypothesis is true for Pakistan in case of GDP and Bank’s credit or we can say that growth led Bank’s credit in Pakistan.Conclusions:Hence Government and central bank should make policies by keeping this fact in consideration that bank’s two major activities that are saving and lending does not have impact on GDP growth.There might be other factors which influence economic growth of Pakistan more than banking sector these activities,which can be bank’s profitability,human resource,technology,infrastructure and other sectors of the economy.However GDP growth affects bank’s lending activities so during high economic growth year central bank and private bank’s management should introduce easy loans for businesses and industries and during poor economic growth years personal loan’s new schemes should be introduce by banks.展开更多
The rapid development of urbanization has led to a rapid increase in total energy consumption.The proportion of domestic energy consumption to total energy consumption has gradually increased and has become the major ...The rapid development of urbanization has led to a rapid increase in total energy consumption.The proportion of domestic energy consumption to total energy consumption has gradually increased and has become the major driving force for energy consumption.With the pressure from urbanization and domestic energy consumption,it is necessary to study the impact of urbanization on domestic energy consumption of the regional level and to explore the function paths of these two factors.The findings are helpful to realize sustainable development based on the actual situation analysis,horizontal survey data and statistical yearbook panel data.The current situation and changing trends in domestic energy consumption of Shandong Province are systematically examined through field investigation and survey questionnaire.The time-series econometric model is applied to analyze the relationship between urbanization rate and total domestic energy consumption.The research results show that the total domestic energy consumption and urbanization rate of Shandong are generally increasing.The urbanization rate development and domestic energy consumption have a long-term stable and balanced relationship.An increase in urbanization rate can cause an increase in domestic energy consumption.There is a slight difference between the average total energy consumption levels of urban and rural residents,but their energy consumption structures differ a lot.These findings provide basic data support and reference for local governments to formulate energy-conservation and emission-reduction policies.展开更多
Due to their non-stationarity, ERP signals are difficult to study. The concept of cointegration might overcome this problem and allow for the study of the co-variability between whole ERP signals. In this context coin...Due to their non-stationarity, ERP signals are difficult to study. The concept of cointegration might overcome this problem and allow for the study of the co-variability between whole ERP signals. In this context cointegration factor is defined as the ability of an ERP signal to co-vary with other ERP signals. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the cointegration factor is dependent on different EMF conditions and gender, as well as the locations of the electrodes on the scalp. The findings revealed that women have a significantly higher cointegration factor than men, while all subjects have increased cointegration factors in the presence of EMF. The cointegration factor is location dependent, creating a distinct cluster of high coin- tegration capacity at the central and lateral electrodes of the scalp, in contrast to clusters of low cointegration capacity at the anterior and posterior electrodes There seem to be distinct similarities of the present findings with those from standard methodologies of the ERPs. In conclusion cointegration is a promising tool towards the study of functional interactions between different brain locations.展开更多
This paper examines the long-and short-run dynamics of asymmetric adjustment between the nominal exchange rate and commodity prices,namely oil,palm oil,rubber,and natural gas prices,in Malaysia using monthly data from...This paper examines the long-and short-run dynamics of asymmetric adjustment between the nominal exchange rate and commodity prices,namely oil,palm oil,rubber,and natural gas prices,in Malaysia using monthly data from January 1994 to December 2017.The relationship between exchange rate and each commodity price is examined in terms of Engle-Granger and threshold cointegrations.The estimated results provide evidence of long-run threshold cointegration and show that the adjustments towards the long-run equilibrium position are asymmetric in the short run.Furthermore,this study finds evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship running from the nominal exchange rate to oil price in the long and short run using a spectral frequency domain causality application.There is also empirical evidence of bidirectional causality between the nominal exchange rate and palm oil price,rubber price,and natural gas price in the long and short run.Overall,the findings have significant implications for the current debate on the future of primary commodities in Malaysia.展开更多
This paper introduces a Bayesian Markov regime-switching model that allows the cointegration relationship between two time series to be switched on and off over time. Unlike classical approaches for testing and modeli...This paper introduces a Bayesian Markov regime-switching model that allows the cointegration relationship between two time series to be switched on and off over time. Unlike classical approaches for testing and modeling cointegration, the Bayesian Markov switching method allows for estimation of the regime-specific model parameters via Markov Chain Monte Carlo and generates more reliable estimation. Inference of regime switching also provides important information for further analysis and decision making.展开更多
基金supported by the research funds for Coupling Research on Industrial Upgrade and Environmental Management in the Bohai Rim-Technique,methodology,and Environmental Economic Policies(No.42076221).
文摘This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.
文摘The extant literature has produced mixed evidence on the relationship between finan-cial development and ecological sustainability.This work addresses this conundrum by investigating financial development’s direct and indirect consequences on ecologi-cal quality utilizing the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)methodological approach.Our empirical analysis is based on the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations approach for South Africa between 1960 and 2020.The results,which used five distinct financial development measures,demonstrate that financial develop-ment boosts ecological integrity and environmental sustainability over the long and short terms.In the instance of South Africa,we additionally confirm the validity of the EKC theory.More importantly,the outcomes of the indirect channels demonstrate that financial development increases energy usage’s role in causing pollution while attenuating the detrimental impacts of economic growth,trade openness,and foreign direct investment on ecological quality.Moreover,the presence of an inadequate financial system is a requirement for the basis of the pollution haven hypothesis(PHH),which we examine using trade openness and foreign direct investment variables.PHH for both of these variables disappears when financial development crosses specified thresholds.Finally,industrial value addition destroys ecological quality while tech-nological innovation enhances it.This research provides some crucial policy recom-mendations and fresh perspectives for South Africa as it develops national initiatives to support ecological sustainability and reach its net zero emissions goal.
文摘The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO_(2))reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization affects environmental quality,but the specifics of this relationship are still up for debate.Some scholars noted that fiscal decentralization might lead to a race to the top,whereas others contended that it would result in a race to the bottom.In light of the current debates in environmental and development economics,this study aims to provide insight into how this relationship may function in South Africa from 1960 to 2020.In contrast to the existing research,the present study uses a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation approach to assess the positive and negative changes in fiscal decentralization,scale effect,technique effect,technological innovation,foreign direct investment,energy consumption,industrial growth,and trade openness on CO_(2)emissions.The following are the main findings:(i)Fiscal decentralization had a CO_(2)emission reduction impact in the short and long run,highlighting the presence of the race to the top approach.(ii)Economic growth(as represented by the scale effect)eroded ecological integrity.However,its square(as expressed by technique effect)aided in strengthening ecological protection,validating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.(iii)CO_(2)emissions were driven by energy utilization,trade openness,industrial value-added,and foreign direct investment,whereas technological innovation boosted ecological integrity.Findings suggest that further fiscal decentralization should be undertaken through further devolution of power to local entities,particularly regarding environmental policy issues,to maintain South Africa’s ecological sustainability.South Africa should also establish policies to improve environmental sustainability by strengthening a lower layer of government and clarifying responsibilities at the national and local levels to fulfill the energy-saving functions of fiscal expenditures.
文摘This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization,the related coeffecient is 0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97.And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious.Urbanization and economic growth are the long-term balanced relations.In the long-term balance,every 1% increment of urbanization can make 4.82% increment of GDP;In short-term balance,if the balance depart from the long-term balance at the i-th term,the model will take automatic reversal adjustment with-0.06 adjusting strength at the(i+1)th term,to make it move to the long-term balance.The economic growth onto urbanization is one-way causality relationship,the primary and secondary industry onto urbanization is also one-way causality relationship.However,the tertiary industry onto urbanization is both-way causality relationship.
文摘Background:The present study examines the short term dynamics and long term equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of 17 countries in Western Europe as well as the world market,using time series techniques.Methods:Weekly returns of market benchmark indices of the respective countries are used from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of December 2013.Results:The study finds that the market returns of Austria,Belgium,the Netherlands,and France are relatively less dynamically interlinked as compared with Britain,Denmark,Finland,Germany,Portugal,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Greece,Ireland,Luxembourg,and Norway,which are quite dynamically interlinked within the region as well as with the MSCI world index.Conclusion:There exists a strong long run equilibrium relationship between the return distributions of the stock markets within the region.
文摘Understanding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market is important because macroeconomic variables have a systematic effect on stock market returns.This study uses monthly data from India for the period from April 1994 to July 2018 to examine the long-run relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic variables.The empirical findings suggest that standard cointegration tests fail to identify any relationship among these variables.However,a transformation that extracts the actual functional relationship between these variables using the alternating conditional expectations algorithm of(J Am Stat Assoc 80:580–598,1985)identifies strong evidence of cointegration and indicates nonlinearity in the long-run relationship.Further,the continuous partial wavelet coherency model identifies strong coherency at a lower frequency for the transformed variables,establishing the fact that the long-run relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in India is nonlinear and time-varying.This evidence has far-reaching implications for understanding the dynamic relationships between the stock market and macroeconomic variables.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.70673100,70621001)
文摘In order to explore the interrelated impacts of the economical communications between China and Hong Kong SAR, especially after the closer economic partnership arrangement (CEPA) and the Chinese yuan offshore financial business in Hong Kong banks in 2004, the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar are investigated as well-performing market signals that should reflect this historical transformation. With vector autoregressive models (VAR), the Johansen cointegration test and the Granger causality test on the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar adjusted by the consumer price index and inter-bank interest rates are examined. It is found that the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar after CEPA are in long-term equilibrium and Granger causality with each other, which means that the interrelationship of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar is more closely integrated after the implementation of the CEPA. In conclusion, the cooperation regarding bilateral trade and financial markets between China and Hong Kong SAR has been enhanced after 1997; furthermore, after the implementation of CEPA the interrelationship of the economies between China and Hong Kong SAR is significantly reinforced.
文摘This paper demonstrates a significant,long-running relationship between stock prices and domestic interest rates in Turkey’s financial markets for the period of 2001 M1-2017 M4.Cointegration analysis is investigated using the autoregressivedistributed lag bounds(ARDL Bounds)test and vector autoregressive cointegration.Additionally,cointegrating equations such as the fully modified ordinary least square,dynamic ordinary least squares,and canonical cointegrating regression are applied to check the long-run elasticities in the concerned relationship.The ARDL Bounds and Johansen Cointegration test results show that,dynamically,both prices are significantly related to each other.The cointegrating equation outcomes demonstrate elasticities whereby both coefficients have negative signs.Additionally,the same results are corroborated by the impulse response where all variables respond negatively to each other.
文摘Based on the modern economic theory and the characteristics of China's energy consumption, this paper analyzes the determinants of energy demand in China, builds up a China's energy demand model, and examines the long-run relationship between China's aggregate energy consumption and the main economic variables such as GDP by using the Johansen multivariate approach. It is found that there exists unique long-run relationship among the variables in the model over the sampling period. An error-correction model provides an appropriate framework for forecasting the short-run fluctuations in the aggregate demand of China.
文摘An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm(AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization,and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.
文摘Today,many developing countries are facing severe shortage of electricity production in their economies which results into a widening gap between electricity production and consumption.This paper employs three-step methodology of Unit Root,Johansen Cointegration,and Vector Error Correction Mechanism to examine whether there exists short-,long-run,uni-,or bi-directional causality among economic growth,electricity production,and inflation for three South Asian economies namely,India,Pakistan,and Bangladesh covering the period 1973-2014.This paper finds the neutrality hypothesis in the short run for India,Pakistan,and Bangladesh.For the long run,the test result indicates that different hypothesis exists for the three countries under the analysis.This implies that policies and strategies for increasing the installed capacity of electricity generation can lead towards prosperous economic growth in the long run.
文摘As an industry representing soft power,the coordinated development between sports industry and tourism plays an important role in promoting economic growth. Using the cointegration theory,we carry out empirical test of economic growth,the output value of sport and tourism income; using the coordination theory,we carry out the evaluation of the coordinated development between sports industry and tourism.It is found in the study that there is a long-term stable dynamic equilibrium relationship among economic growth,the output value of sport and tourism income. The sports industry and tourism in Henan Province have undergone six stages( imbalance-on the verge of imbalance- barely coordinated-primarily coordinated- moderately coordinated- well coordinated). In the process of coordinated development,sports industry significantly lags behind tourism,so it is necessary to strengthen the sports industry personnel's quality,and optimize the coordination between the sports industry and tourism,so as to promote economic development level.
文摘Background:Banking is an important sector of Pakistan’s economy.It is general consideration that bank’s major activities saving and lending have positive impact on economic growth.So the aim of this study is to investigate this consideration and also investigate that either growth led deposits and credits,or deposit and credits led growth means the purpose of this study is to investigate the direction of this relationship.Methods:Johansen test of Co-integration and Granger Causality is employed by using time series data of Pakistan from 1961 to 2013.Results:The results show that two major activities of banking sector that are saving and lending don’t have any long run or short run causality towards economic growth so the general consideration of positive impact of these activities proved wrong in case of Pakistan.However there is unidirectional causality running from GDP growth to credit provided by banking sector which shows that economic prosperity or economic growth will have a major impact on lending activities of banks meaning that demand following hypothesis is true for Pakistan in case of GDP and Bank’s credit or we can say that growth led Bank’s credit in Pakistan.Conclusions:Hence Government and central bank should make policies by keeping this fact in consideration that bank’s two major activities that are saving and lending does not have impact on GDP growth.There might be other factors which influence economic growth of Pakistan more than banking sector these activities,which can be bank’s profitability,human resource,technology,infrastructure and other sectors of the economy.However GDP growth affects bank’s lending activities so during high economic growth year central bank and private bank’s management should introduce easy loans for businesses and industries and during poor economic growth years personal loan’s new schemes should be introduce by banks.
基金funded by Natural Science Foundation of China(71974116)Shandong Natural Science Foundation(2019MG009)Shandong Provincial Social Science Planning Research Project(20CGLJ13).
文摘The rapid development of urbanization has led to a rapid increase in total energy consumption.The proportion of domestic energy consumption to total energy consumption has gradually increased and has become the major driving force for energy consumption.With the pressure from urbanization and domestic energy consumption,it is necessary to study the impact of urbanization on domestic energy consumption of the regional level and to explore the function paths of these two factors.The findings are helpful to realize sustainable development based on the actual situation analysis,horizontal survey data and statistical yearbook panel data.The current situation and changing trends in domestic energy consumption of Shandong Province are systematically examined through field investigation and survey questionnaire.The time-series econometric model is applied to analyze the relationship between urbanization rate and total domestic energy consumption.The research results show that the total domestic energy consumption and urbanization rate of Shandong are generally increasing.The urbanization rate development and domestic energy consumption have a long-term stable and balanced relationship.An increase in urbanization rate can cause an increase in domestic energy consumption.There is a slight difference between the average total energy consumption levels of urban and rural residents,but their energy consumption structures differ a lot.These findings provide basic data support and reference for local governments to formulate energy-conservation and emission-reduction policies.
文摘Due to their non-stationarity, ERP signals are difficult to study. The concept of cointegration might overcome this problem and allow for the study of the co-variability between whole ERP signals. In this context cointegration factor is defined as the ability of an ERP signal to co-vary with other ERP signals. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the cointegration factor is dependent on different EMF conditions and gender, as well as the locations of the electrodes on the scalp. The findings revealed that women have a significantly higher cointegration factor than men, while all subjects have increased cointegration factors in the presence of EMF. The cointegration factor is location dependent, creating a distinct cluster of high coin- tegration capacity at the central and lateral electrodes of the scalp, in contrast to clusters of low cointegration capacity at the anterior and posterior electrodes There seem to be distinct similarities of the present findings with those from standard methodologies of the ERPs. In conclusion cointegration is a promising tool towards the study of functional interactions between different brain locations.
文摘This paper examines the long-and short-run dynamics of asymmetric adjustment between the nominal exchange rate and commodity prices,namely oil,palm oil,rubber,and natural gas prices,in Malaysia using monthly data from January 1994 to December 2017.The relationship between exchange rate and each commodity price is examined in terms of Engle-Granger and threshold cointegrations.The estimated results provide evidence of long-run threshold cointegration and show that the adjustments towards the long-run equilibrium position are asymmetric in the short run.Furthermore,this study finds evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship running from the nominal exchange rate to oil price in the long and short run using a spectral frequency domain causality application.There is also empirical evidence of bidirectional causality between the nominal exchange rate and palm oil price,rubber price,and natural gas price in the long and short run.Overall,the findings have significant implications for the current debate on the future of primary commodities in Malaysia.
文摘This paper introduces a Bayesian Markov regime-switching model that allows the cointegration relationship between two time series to be switched on and off over time. Unlike classical approaches for testing and modeling cointegration, the Bayesian Markov switching method allows for estimation of the regime-specific model parameters via Markov Chain Monte Carlo and generates more reliable estimation. Inference of regime switching also provides important information for further analysis and decision making.