Research on the Relationship Between Environmental and Economic Coupling Systems in Bohai Bay Area Based on a Vector Autoregression(VAR)Model

This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.

Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Generalized Cointegrating Vectors in A Generalized Cointegrated System

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Exploring the moderating role of financial development in environmental Kuznets curve for South Africa:fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulations approach

The extant literature has produced mixed evidence on the relationship between finan-cial development and ecological sustainability.This work addresses this conundrum by investigating financial development’s direct and indirect consequences on ecologi-cal quality utilizing the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)methodological approach.Our empirical analysis is based on the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations approach for South Africa between 1960 and 2020.The results,which used five distinct financial development measures,demonstrate that financial develop-ment boosts ecological integrity and environmental sustainability over the long and short terms.In the instance of South Africa,we additionally confirm the validity of the EKC theory.More importantly,the outcomes of the indirect channels demonstrate that financial development increases energy usage’s role in causing pollution while attenuating the detrimental impacts of economic growth,trade openness,and foreign direct investment on ecological quality.Moreover,the presence of an inadequate financial system is a requirement for the basis of the pollution haven hypothesis(PHH),which we examine using trade openness and foreign direct investment variables.PHH for both of these variables disappears when financial development crosses specified thresholds.Finally,industrial value addition destroys ecological quality while tech-nological innovation enhances it.This research provides some crucial policy recom-mendations and fresh perspectives for South Africa as it develops national initiatives to support ecological sustainability and reach its net zero emissions goal.

Revisiting the nexus between fiscal decentralization and CO_(2)emissions in South Africa:fresh policy insights

The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO_(2))reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization affects environmental quality,but the specifics of this relationship are still up for debate.Some scholars noted that fiscal decentralization might lead to a race to the top,whereas others contended that it would result in a race to the bottom.In light of the current debates in environmental and development economics,this study aims to provide insight into how this relationship may function in South Africa from 1960 to 2020.In contrast to the existing research,the present study uses a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation approach to assess the positive and negative changes in fiscal decentralization,scale effect,technique effect,technological innovation,foreign direct investment,energy consumption,industrial growth,and trade openness on CO_(2)emissions.The following are the main findings:(i)Fiscal decentralization had a CO_(2)emission reduction impact in the short and long run,highlighting the presence of the race to the top approach.(ii)Economic growth(as represented by the scale effect)eroded ecological integrity.However,its square(as expressed by technique effect)aided in strengthening ecological protection,validating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.(iii)CO_(2)emissions were driven by energy utilization,trade openness,industrial value-added,and foreign direct investment,whereas technological innovation boosted ecological integrity.Findings suggest that further fiscal decentralization should be undertaken through further devolution of power to local entities,particularly regarding environmental policy issues,to maintain South Africa’s ecological sustainability.South Africa should also establish policies to improve environmental sustainability by strengthening a lower layer of government and clarifying responsibilities at the national and local levels to fulfill the energy-saving functions of fiscal expenditures.

Cointegration analysis with structural changes between consumption and economic growth in China

In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger （EG） test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.

［C，H］－Hopf模与模余代数的结构定理

本文首先利用ｃｏｉｎｔｅｇｒａｌ和ｃｏｃｌｅｆｔ模余代数概念，得到Ｈ为Ｈｏｐｆ代数当且仅当Ｈ作为Ｈ－模余代数是ｃｏｃｌｅｆｔ以及模余代数的一些性质．然后，设Ｃ为Ｈ－模余代数．令Ｃ＝Ｃ／Ｃｋｅｒε则有．最后，证明了结构定理：当Ｃ为ｃｏｃｌｅｆｔＨ－模余代数时。

国际主要股市波动相关性的实证研究

本文对国际几个主要股票市场进行了收益率与波动相关性的实证分析,最终得出这样的结论:美国、英国、日本、中国香港、沪市、深市的指数是存在协整关系的;通过多元GARCH分析,看出中国股票市场与其他股票市场有一定的波动相关性,但不是很强;在国内看来,沪市与深市的波动相关性很强。

中国收入差距与经济增长的关系分析

本文基于中国1987-2010年的相关时间序列数据,采用Engle-Granger两步协整(Cointegration)检验和Granger因果关系检验等计量经济学方法研究经济增长对城乡居民收入差距的影响。研究发现,城乡收入差距与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,经济增长会引起城乡收入差距的单向变动。

Cointegration Analysis on the Relation between Urbanization and Economic Growth in China

This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization,the related coeffecient is 0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97.And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious.Urbanization and economic growth are the long-term balanced relations.In the long-term balance,every 1% increment of urbanization can make 4.82% increment of GDP;In short-term balance,if the balance depart from the long-term balance at the i-th term,the model will take automatic reversal adjustment with-0.06 adjusting strength at the(i+1)th term,to make it move to the long-term balance.The economic growth onto urbanization is one-way causality relationship,the primary and secondary industry onto urbanization is also one-way causality relationship.However,the tertiary industry onto urbanization is both-way causality relationship.

Short-term and long-term Interconnectedness of stock returns in Western Europe and the global market

Background:The present study examines the short term dynamics and long term equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of 17 countries in Western Europe as well as the world market,using time series techniques.Methods:Weekly returns of market benchmark indices of the respective countries are used from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of December 2013.Results:The study finds that the market returns of Austria,Belgium,the Netherlands,and France are relatively less dynamically interlinked as compared with Britain,Denmark,Finland,Germany,Portugal,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Greece,Ireland,Luxembourg,and Norway,which are quite dynamically interlinked within the region as well as with the MSCI world index.Conclusion:There exists a strong long run equilibrium relationship between the return distributions of the stock markets within the region.

Stock market and macroeconomic variables:new evidence from India

Understanding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market is important because macroeconomic variables have a systematic effect on stock market returns.This study uses monthly data from India for the period from April 1994 to July 2018 to examine the long-run relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic variables.The empirical findings suggest that standard cointegration tests fail to identify any relationship among these variables.However,a transformation that extracts the actual functional relationship between these variables using the alternating conditional expectations algorithm of(J Am Stat Assoc 80:580–598,1985)identifies strong evidence of cointegration and indicates nonlinearity in the long-run relationship.Further,the continuous partial wavelet coherency model identifies strong coherency at a lower frequency for the transformed variables,establishing the fact that the long-run relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in India is nonlinear and time-varying.This evidence has far-reaching implications for understanding the dynamic relationships between the stock market and macroeconomic variables.

CEPA and interrelationship between Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar

In order to explore the interrelated impacts of the economical communications between China and Hong Kong SAR, especially after the closer economic partnership arrangement (CEPA) and the Chinese yuan offshore financial business in Hong Kong banks in 2004, the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar are investigated as well-performing market signals that should reflect this historical transformation. With vector autoregressive models (VAR), the Johansen cointegration test and the Granger causality test on the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar adjusted by the consumer price index and inter-bank interest rates are examined. It is found that the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar after CEPA are in long-term equilibrium and Granger causality with each other, which means that the interrelationship of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar is more closely integrated after the implementation of the CEPA. In conclusion, the cooperation regarding bilateral trade and financial markets between China and Hong Kong SAR has been enhanced after 1997; furthermore, after the implementation of CEPA the interrelationship of the economies between China and Hong Kong SAR is significantly reinforced.

The interaction between stock prices and interest rates in Turkey:empirical evidence from ARDL bounds test cointegration

This paper demonstrates a significant,long-running relationship between stock prices and domestic interest rates in Turkey’s financial markets for the period of 2001 M1-2017 M4.Cointegration analysis is investigated using the autoregressivedistributed lag bounds(ARDL Bounds)test and vector autoregressive cointegration.Additionally,cointegrating equations such as the fully modified ordinary least square,dynamic ordinary least squares,and canonical cointegrating regression are applied to check the long-run elasticities in the concerned relationship.The ARDL Bounds and Johansen Cointegration test results show that,dynamically,both prices are significantly related to each other.The cointegrating equation outcomes demonstrate elasticities whereby both coefficients have negative signs.Additionally,the same results are corroborated by the impulse response where all variables respond negatively to each other.

Modeling Time Series Analysis between Feedstuff and Hog Prices in Taiwan

Pork in Taiwan has played an important role in terms of domestic consumption, production and price fluctuation in several decades. This study attempts to investigate the causal relationship between hog and feedstuff prices in Taiwan by using monthly time series over the period of January 2000 to October 2010. Prices from hog, feedstuff, soybean meal and corn are considered and performed through a multivariate vector autoregressive （VAR） model. As the empirical results, the long-run equilibrium is captured identifying price elasticity among the variables using the Johansen cointegration diagnosis. Then, the Granger causality approach shows that bidirectional relationship is detected running from feedstuff to corn and from soybean meal to hog as well as unidirectional relationship running from corn to hog, from feedstuff to hog and from soybean meal to feedstuff. In the conclusions, we point out to raw material prices of feedstuff, namely corn and soybean meal that have an importance to hog price as the cost of meat production. Pig farmers and policy-makers should understand the behavior of price interactions to manage the risks on hog market and to increase the profitability on suitable price.

Scenario Formation of Energy Demand and CO_2 Emissionsfor Sustainable China

Co-integration theory has been employed in this paper and Granger causes are found between urbanization rate and GDP, between capital stock and GDP. Scenario analysis of GDP is performed using the GDP model established in the paper. The energy consumptions in Germany, Japan and other developed countries are analyzed and compared with the energy consumption in China. Environmental friendly scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions for sustainable China has been formed based on the results of comparison. Under environmental friendly scenario, the primary energy consumption will be 4.31 billion ton coal equivalence （tee） and CO2 emissions will be 1.854 billion t-c in 2050; energy per capital will be 3.06 tee that is 1.8 times of energy consumed in 2005 in China and 51% of consumed energy per capital in Japan in 2003. In 2050, the energy requirement of unit GDP will be 20% lower than that of Germany in 2003, but will be still 37% higher than that in Japan in 2003. It is certain that to fulfill the environmental friendly Scenario of energy demand and CO2 emissions is a difficult task and it needs long term efforts of the whole society, not only in production sectors but also in service and household sectors,

Supplier pricing based on threshold cointegration in agri-supply chain

Aiming atthe pricing of primary agricultural products for the large-scale suppliers and the wholesalers in agri-supply chain management, an approach for the large-scale supplier pricing is presented based on the threshold cointegration method of wholesale prices online including the GBand-TAR modified Band-TAR model. Our empirical work shows that it is more appropriate for a large-scale supplier pricing with his wholesalers based on the threshold cointegration method than the conventional linear cointegration method in spatially separate markets in an agri-supply chain of soybean in China in short time. Firstly, the three pairs of prices in spatially separate markets are of long-run equilibrium and threshold cointegration. The forecast wst shows that the threshold cointegration approach is superior to the conventional linear cointegration approach in short time. Secondly, there are two thresholds of GBand-TAR in which the threshold parameters represent relative transaction costs. Larger thresholds or wider neutral band corresponds to the greater distance between markets. Thirdly, the estimation of M-TAR shows that the large-scale supplier is more sensitive to increase of wholesaler prices than decrease of wholesaler prices. The supplier can price on the forecast of market price by the threshold ECM including the GBand-TAR if the equilibrium error of threshold lag is not in the interval of thresholds in which there is not profitable trading opportunities for the supplier.

Study on the Determinants of Energy Demand in China

Based on the modern economic theory and the characteristics of China's energy consumption, this paper analyzes the determinants of energy demand in China, builds up a China's energy demand model, and examines the long-run relationship between China's aggregate energy consumption and the main economic variables such as GDP by using the Johansen multivariate approach. It is found that there exists unique long-run relationship among the variables in the model over the sampling period. An error-correction model provides an appropriate framework for forecasting the short-run fluctuations in the aggregate demand of China.

Forecasting China's primary energy demand based on an improved AI model

An improved energy demand forecasting model is built based on the autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL) bounds testing approach and an adaptive genetic algorithm(AGA) to obtain credible energy demand forecasting results. The ARDL bounds analysis is first employed to select the appropriate input variables of the energy demand model. After the existence of a cointegration relationship in the model is confirmed, the AGA is then employed to optimize the coefficients of both linear and quadratic forms with gross domestic product, economic structure, urbanization,and technological progress as the input variables. On the basis of historical annual data from1985 to 2015, the simulation results indicate that the proposed model has greater accuracy and reliability than conventional optimization methods. The predicted results of the proposed model also demonstrate that China will demand approximately 4.9, 5.6, and 6.1 billion standard tons of coal equivalent in 2020, 2025, and 2030, respectively.

Causal Relationship Between Electricity Production and Macroeconomic Indicators:Cross Countries Analysis

Today,many developing countries are facing severe shortage of electricity production in their economies which results into a widening gap between electricity production and consumption.This paper employs three-step methodology of Unit Root,Johansen Cointegration,and Vector Error Correction Mechanism to examine whether there exists short-,long-run,uni-,or bi-directional causality among economic growth,electricity production,and inflation for three South Asian economies namely,India,Pakistan,and Bangladesh covering the period 1973-2014.This paper finds the neutrality hypothesis in the short run for India,Pakistan,and Bangladesh.For the long run,the test result indicates that different hypothesis exists for the three countries under the analysis.This implies that policies and strategies for increasing the installed capacity of electricity generation can lead towards prosperous economic growth in the long run.

The Coordinated Development of Sports Industry and Tourism under the Perspective of Soft Power: A Case Study of Henan Province

As an industry representing soft power,the coordinated development between sports industry and tourism plays an important role in promoting economic growth. Using the cointegration theory,we carry out empirical test of economic growth,the output value of sport and tourism income; using the coordination theory,we carry out the evaluation of the coordinated development between sports industry and tourism.It is found in the study that there is a long-term stable dynamic equilibrium relationship among economic growth,the output value of sport and tourism income. The sports industry and tourism in Henan Province have undergone six stages( imbalance-on the verge of imbalance- barely coordinated-primarily coordinated- moderately coordinated- well coordinated). In the process of coordinated development,sports industry significantly lags behind tourism,so it is necessary to strengthen the sports industry personnel's quality,and optimize the coordination between the sports industry and tourism,so as to promote economic development level.