Cointegration Analysis on the Relation between Urbanization and Economic Growth in China

This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization,the related coeffecient is 0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97.And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious.Urbanization and economic growth are the long-term balanced relations.In the long-term balance,every 1% increment of urbanization can make 4.82% increment of GDP;In short-term balance,if the balance depart from the long-term balance at the i-th term,the model will take automatic reversal adjustment with-0.06 adjusting strength at the(i+1)th term,to make it move to the long-term balance.The economic growth onto urbanization is one-way causality relationship,the primary and secondary industry onto urbanization is also one-way causality relationship.However,the tertiary industry onto urbanization is both-way causality relationship.

The interaction between stock prices and interest rates in Turkey:empirical evidence from ARDL bounds test cointegration

This paper demonstrates a significant,long-running relationship between stock prices and domestic interest rates in Turkey’s financial markets for the period of 2001 M1-2017 M4.Cointegration analysis is investigated using the autoregressivedistributed lag bounds(ARDL Bounds)test and vector autoregressive cointegration.Additionally,cointegrating equations such as the fully modified ordinary least square,dynamic ordinary least squares,and canonical cointegrating regression are applied to check the long-run elasticities in the concerned relationship.The ARDL Bounds and Johansen Cointegration test results show that,dynamically,both prices are significantly related to each other.The cointegrating equation outcomes demonstrate elasticities whereby both coefficients have negative signs.Additionally,the same results are corroborated by the impulse response where all variables respond negatively to each other.

Cointegration of event-related potential (ERP) signals in experiments with different electromagnetic field (EMF) conditions

Due to their non-stationarity, ERP signals are difficult to study. The concept of cointegration might overcome this problem and allow for the study of the co-variability between whole ERP signals. In this context cointegration factor is defined as the ability of an ERP signal to co-vary with other ERP signals. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the cointegration factor is dependent on different EMF conditions and gender, as well as the locations of the electrodes on the scalp. The findings revealed that women have a significantly higher cointegration factor than men, while all subjects have increased cointegration factors in the presence of EMF. The cointegration factor is location dependent, creating a distinct cluster of high coin- tegration capacity at the central and lateral electrodes of the scalp, in contrast to clusters of low cointegration capacity at the anterior and posterior electrodes There seem to be distinct similarities of the present findings with those from standard methodologies of the ERPs. In conclusion cointegration is a promising tool towards the study of functional interactions between different brain locations.

Evaluating the exchange rate and commodity price nexus in Malaysia: evidence from the threshold cointegration approach

This paper examines the long-and short-run dynamics of asymmetric adjustment between the nominal exchange rate and commodity prices,namely oil,palm oil,rubber,and natural gas prices,in Malaysia using monthly data from January 1994 to December 2017.The relationship between exchange rate and each commodity price is examined in terms of Engle-Granger and threshold cointegrations.The estimated results provide evidence of long-run threshold cointegration and show that the adjustments towards the long-run equilibrium position are asymmetric in the short run.Furthermore,this study finds evidence of a unidirectional causal relationship running from the nominal exchange rate to oil price in the long and short run using a spectral frequency domain causality application.There is also empirical evidence of bidirectional causality between the nominal exchange rate and palm oil price,rubber price,and natural gas price in the long and short run.Overall,the findings have significant implications for the current debate on the future of primary commodities in Malaysia.

Bayesian Markov Regime-Switching Models for Cointegration

This paper introduces a Bayesian Markov regime-switching model that allows the cointegration relationship between two time series to be switched on and off over time. Unlike classical approaches for testing and modeling cointegration, the Bayesian Markov switching method allows for estimation of the regime-specific model parameters via Markov Chain Monte Carlo and generates more reliable estimation. Inference of regime switching also provides important information for further analysis and decision making.

Bayesian Factorized Cointegration Analysis

The concept of cointegration is widely used in applied non-stationary time series analysis to describe the co-movement of data measured over time. In this paper, we proposed a Bayesian model for cointegration test and analysis, based on the dynamic latent factor framework. Efficient computational algorithms are also developed based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Performance and efficiency of the the model and approaches are assessed by simulated and real data analysis.

Research on the Relationship Between Environmental and Economic Coupling Systems in Bohai Bay Area Based on a Vector Autoregression(VAR)Model

This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.

Application of Cointegration to Forecasting Foreign Trade in China

Monthly forecast of export and import of China is investigated in this paper. Export, import, exchange rates and foreign reserve of China are coincided with in a vector error corrected model, on which seasonal export and import can be forecasted in a reasonable precision. With impulse response analysis, impact of exchange rate to export is discussed.

Cointegration Test of Expectation Hypothesis in Multi-Interest-Rates System

The expectation hypothesis of interest rate term structure theory posits an implication: in a system of p interest rates of different maturity there should be one common trend driving interest rates, corresponding to p-1 cointegration vectors, and in each of these vectors the coefficients should sum to zero, giving stationary interest rate spreads.\;This paper analyses the cointegration implications of the expectation hypothesis on UK interest rates. Two types of tests have been carried out in the analysis. The first is the test of the implication that pairs of two interest rates cointegrate into stationary spreads. The second is the test of the cointegration implications on a full system of interest rates of different maturity. This analysis has been carried out using the VAR technique. The results in general favour the expectation hypothesis: the UK term structure of interest rate is driven by one common stochastic trend, and the interest rate spreads are generally found to be stationary. The validity of the expectation hypothesis suggests that the central bank can have a direct effect on long interest rates by operating at the short end of the market.

On the nexus of environmental quality and public spending on health care in China:a panel cointegration analysis

Does pollution drive up public spending on health care?This paper aims to answer such a crucial question empirically using a panel data set of 31 Chinese provinces during the period 1997–2014.In particular,this paper explores the non-stationarity and cointegration properties between health care expenditure and environmental indicators in a panel cointegration framework;in doing so,it examines both the long-run and the short-run impacts of the per capita provincial GDP,waste gas emissions,dust and smog emissions,and waste water emissions on the per capita public health expenditure.We apply panel unit root tests,heterogeneous panel cointegration tests,FMOLS techniques,and a panel-based error-correction model.The conclusion is that,both in the long run and in the short run,public health care expenditure is positively affected not only by the provincial economy but also by the environmental quality.

Exploring the moderating role of financial development in environmental Kuznets curve for South Africa:fresh evidence from the novel dynamic ARDL simulations approach

The extant literature has produced mixed evidence on the relationship between finan-cial development and ecological sustainability.This work addresses this conundrum by investigating financial development’s direct and indirect consequences on ecologi-cal quality utilizing the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)methodological approach.Our empirical analysis is based on the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulations approach for South Africa between 1960 and 2020.The results,which used five distinct financial development measures,demonstrate that financial develop-ment boosts ecological integrity and environmental sustainability over the long and short terms.In the instance of South Africa,we additionally confirm the validity of the EKC theory.More importantly,the outcomes of the indirect channels demonstrate that financial development increases energy usage’s role in causing pollution while attenuating the detrimental impacts of economic growth,trade openness,and foreign direct investment on ecological quality.Moreover,the presence of an inadequate financial system is a requirement for the basis of the pollution haven hypothesis(PHH),which we examine using trade openness and foreign direct investment variables.PHH for both of these variables disappears when financial development crosses specified thresholds.Finally,industrial value addition destroys ecological quality while tech-nological innovation enhances it.This research provides some crucial policy recom-mendations and fresh perspectives for South Africa as it develops national initiatives to support ecological sustainability and reach its net zero emissions goal.

Revisiting the nexus between fiscal decentralization and CO_(2)emissions in South Africa:fresh policy insights

The argument over fiscal decentralization and carbon dioxide emission(CO_(2))reduction has received much attention.However,evidence to back this claim is limited.Economic theory predicts that fiscal decentralization affects environmental quality,but the specifics of this relationship are still up for debate.Some scholars noted that fiscal decentralization might lead to a race to the top,whereas others contended that it would result in a race to the bottom.In light of the current debates in environmental and development economics,this study aims to provide insight into how this relationship may function in South Africa from 1960 to 2020.In contrast to the existing research,the present study uses a novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation approach to assess the positive and negative changes in fiscal decentralization,scale effect,technique effect,technological innovation,foreign direct investment,energy consumption,industrial growth,and trade openness on CO_(2)emissions.The following are the main findings:(i)Fiscal decentralization had a CO_(2)emission reduction impact in the short and long run,highlighting the presence of the race to the top approach.(ii)Economic growth(as represented by the scale effect)eroded ecological integrity.However,its square(as expressed by technique effect)aided in strengthening ecological protection,validating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.(iii)CO_(2)emissions were driven by energy utilization,trade openness,industrial value-added,and foreign direct investment,whereas technological innovation boosted ecological integrity.Findings suggest that further fiscal decentralization should be undertaken through further devolution of power to local entities,particularly regarding environmental policy issues,to maintain South Africa’s ecological sustainability.South Africa should also establish policies to improve environmental sustainability by strengthening a lower layer of government and clarifying responsibilities at the national and local levels to fulfill the energy-saving functions of fiscal expenditures.

国际主要股市波动相关性的实证研究

本文对国际几个主要股票市场进行了收益率与波动相关性的实证分析,最终得出这样的结论:美国、英国、日本、中国香港、沪市、深市的指数是存在协整关系的;通过多元GARCH分析,看出中国股票市场与其他股票市场有一定的波动相关性,但不是很强;在国内看来,沪市与深市的波动相关性很强。

中国收入差距与经济增长的关系分析

本文基于中国1987-2010年的相关时间序列数据,采用Engle-Granger两步协整(Cointegration)检验和Granger因果关系检验等计量经济学方法研究经济增长对城乡居民收入差距的影响。研究发现,城乡收入差距与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,经济增长会引起城乡收入差距的单向变动。

［C，H］－Hopf模与模余代数的结构定理

本文首先利用ｃｏｉｎｔｅｇｒａｌ和ｃｏｃｌｅｆｔ模余代数概念，得到Ｈ为Ｈｏｐｆ代数当且仅当Ｈ作为Ｈ－模余代数是ｃｏｃｌｅｆｔ以及模余代数的一些性质．然后，设Ｃ为Ｈ－模余代数．令Ｃ＝Ｃ／Ｃｋｅｒε则有．最后，证明了结构定理：当Ｃ为ｃｏｃｌｅｆｔＨ－模余代数时。

Short-term and long-term Interconnectedness of stock returns in Western Europe and the global market

Background:The present study examines the short term dynamics and long term equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of 17 countries in Western Europe as well as the world market,using time series techniques.Methods:Weekly returns of market benchmark indices of the respective countries are used from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of December 2013.Results:The study finds that the market returns of Austria,Belgium,the Netherlands,and France are relatively less dynamically interlinked as compared with Britain,Denmark,Finland,Germany,Portugal,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Greece,Ireland,Luxembourg,and Norway,which are quite dynamically interlinked within the region as well as with the MSCI world index.Conclusion:There exists a strong long run equilibrium relationship between the return distributions of the stock markets within the region.

Stock market and macroeconomic variables:new evidence from India

Understanding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market is important because macroeconomic variables have a systematic effect on stock market returns.This study uses monthly data from India for the period from April 1994 to July 2018 to examine the long-run relationship between the stock market and macroeconomic variables.The empirical findings suggest that standard cointegration tests fail to identify any relationship among these variables.However,a transformation that extracts the actual functional relationship between these variables using the alternating conditional expectations algorithm of(J Am Stat Assoc 80:580–598,1985)identifies strong evidence of cointegration and indicates nonlinearity in the long-run relationship.Further,the continuous partial wavelet coherency model identifies strong coherency at a lower frequency for the transformed variables,establishing the fact that the long-run relationship between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in India is nonlinear and time-varying.This evidence has far-reaching implications for understanding the dynamic relationships between the stock market and macroeconomic variables.

CEPA and interrelationship between Chinese yuan and Hong Kong dollar

In order to explore the interrelated impacts of the economical communications between China and Hong Kong SAR, especially after the closer economic partnership arrangement (CEPA) and the Chinese yuan offshore financial business in Hong Kong banks in 2004, the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar are investigated as well-performing market signals that should reflect this historical transformation. With vector autoregressive models (VAR), the Johansen cointegration test and the Granger causality test on the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar adjusted by the consumer price index and inter-bank interest rates are examined. It is found that the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar after CEPA are in long-term equilibrium and Granger causality with each other, which means that the interrelationship of the Chinese yuan and the Hong Kong dollar is more closely integrated after the implementation of the CEPA. In conclusion, the cooperation regarding bilateral trade and financial markets between China and Hong Kong SAR has been enhanced after 1997; furthermore, after the implementation of CEPA the interrelationship of the economies between China and Hong Kong SAR is significantly reinforced.

Study on the Determinants of Energy Demand in China

Based on the modern economic theory and the characteristics of China's energy consumption, this paper analyzes the determinants of energy demand in China, builds up a China's energy demand model, and examines the long-run relationship between China's aggregate energy consumption and the main economic variables such as GDP by using the Johansen multivariate approach. It is found that there exists unique long-run relationship among the variables in the model over the sampling period. An error-correction model provides an appropriate framework for forecasting the short-run fluctuations in the aggregate demand of China.