Influence of climate change and human activity on water resources in arid region of Northwest China: An overview

This study reviews the latest progress in research on climate change and water resources in the arid region of Northwest China, analyzes the cause of water resource changes within the region from the perspective of climate change and human activities, and summarizes future likely changes in water resources and associated adaptation strategies. The research shows that the climate in the region has experienced warming and wetting with the most significant warming in winter and the highest increase in summer precipitation since 1961. Areas with the most significant warming trends include the Qaidam Basin, the Yili River Valley, and Tacheng. Spatially, the increasing trend in precipitation becomes increasingly significant from the southeast to the northwest, and northern Xinjiang experienced the highest increase. Studies have shown a decrease in headwater of Shiyang River because runoff is mainly based on precipitation which shows a decrease trend. But an increase in western rivers was observed such as Tarim River and Shule River as well as Heihe River due to rapid glacier shrinkage and snowmelt as well as precipitation increase in mountain area. Meanwhile unreasonable human activities resulted in decrease of runoff in the middle and lower reaches of Haihe River, Shiyang River and Kaidu River. Finally, recommendations for future studies are suggested that include characteristics of changes in extreme weather events and their impacts on water resources, projections of future climate and water resource changes, climate change attribution, the selection of adaptation strategies relating to climate change and social economic activities, and use of scientific methods to quantitatively determine water resource allocation.

Sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources in the arid Shiyang River Basin of Northwest China

The sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources to climate change is difficult to assess. In this study, we used a conceptual hydrologic model to investigate the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change. We also pro- posed a framework to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in arid regions. We applied this framework to a case study of the Shiyang River Basin in Northwest China. Results showed that the precipitation and streamflow in Shiyang River Basin exhibited no significant trends of change from 1956 to 2010. In the past five decades, however, the temperature increased significantly by 0.37℃ per decade. According to the sensitivity assessment, a 10% in- crease in precipitation and a 1℃ increase in temperature altered mean annual streamflow by averages of 14.6% and -0.5%, respectively, from 1988 to 2005. In the 2000s, the calculated vulnerability of water resources in Shiyang River Basin was more than 0.95, indicating severe vulnerability. The increase in the amount of precipitation and the imple- mentation of water-saving measures can reduce the vulnerability of water resources in the future; if precipitation in- creases by 10% per decade and the use of irrigation water decreases by 15% in the 2030s, the evaluated value of water resources vulnerability will be reduced to 0.79. However, the region remains highly vulnerable. The proposed framework for vulnerability assessment can be applied to the arid regions in Northwest China, and the results of our efforts can identify adaptation strategies and improve the management of water resources in such regions.

Hydrological and water cycle processes of inland river basins in the arid region of Northwest China

The increasing shortage in water resources is a key factor affecting sustainable socio-economic development in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC). Water shortages also affect the stability of the region's oasis ecosystem. This paper summarizes the hydrological processes and water cycle of inland river basins in the ARNC, focusing on the following aspects: the spatial-temporal features of water resources(including air water vapor resources, runoff, and glacial meltwater) and their driving forces; the characteristics of streamflow composition in the inland river basins; the characteristics and main controlling factors of baseflow in the inland rivers; and anticipated future changes in hydrological processes and water resources. The results indicate that:(1) although the runoff in most inland rivers in the ARNC showed a significant increasing trend, both the glaciated area and glacial ice reserves have been reduced in the mountains;(2) snow melt and glacier melt are extremely important hydrological processes in the ARNC, especially in the Kunlun and Tianshan mountains;(3) baseflow in the inland rivers of the ARNC is the result of climate change and human activities, with the main driving factors being the reduction in forest area and the over-exploitation and utilization of groundwater in the river basins; and(4) the contradictions among water resources, ecology and economy will further increase in the future. The findings of this study might also help strengthen the ecological, economic and social sustainable development in the study region.

Runoff Responses to Climate Change in Arid Region of Northwestern China During 1960-2010

Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum （CUSUM） chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analy- sis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang （i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River） has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of rtmoff have strong negative correla- tions with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management.

Potential risks and challenges of climate change in the arid region of northwestern China

In the arid region of northwestern China(ARNC),water resources are the most critical factor restricting socioeconomic development and influencing the stability of the area’s ecological systems.The region’s complex water system and unique hydrological cycle show distinctive characteristics.Moreover,the intensified hydrological cycle and extreme climatic and hydrological events resulting from global warming have led to increased uncertainty around water resources as well as heightened conflict between water supply and water demand.All of these factors are exerting growing pressures on the socioeconomic development and vulnerable ecological environment in the region.This research evaluates the impacts of climate change on water resources,hydrological processes,agricultural system,and desert ecosystems in the ARNC,and addresses some associated risks and challenges specific to this area.The temperature is rising at a rate of 0.31
C per decade during 1961–2017 and hydrological processes are being significantly influenced by changes in glaciers,snow cover,and precipitation form,especially in the rivers recharged primarily by melt water.Ecosystems are also largely influenced by climate change,with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)of natural vegetation exhibited an increasing trend prior to 1998,and then reversed in Xinjiang while the Hexi Corridor of Gansu showed the opposite trends.Furthermore,the desert-oasis transition zone showed a reduction in area due to the warming trend and the recent rapid expansion of irrigated area.Both the warming and intensified drought are threatening agriculture security.The present study could shed light on sustainable development in this region under climate change and provides scientific basis to the construction of the“Silk Road Economic Belt”.

Modeling demand/supply of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China during the late 1980s to 2010

Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a sig- nificant issue, especially in arid regions. To figure out the utilization of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China （ARNWC）, and also to provide methodologies to predict the water use in future, three models were established in this study to calculate agricultural irri- gation, industrial and domestic water use in the ARNWC from the late 1980s to 2010. Based on river discharges in the region, the supply and demand of water resources at the river basin level were analyzed. The results indicated that agricultural irrigation demand occupies more than 90% of the total water use in the ARNWC. Total water demand increased from 31.97 km3 in the late 1980s to 48.19 km3 in 2010. Most river basins in this arid region were under me- dium and high water stress. Severe-risk river basins, such as the Shiyang river basin and the eastern part of the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, were found in this region. It was revealed that the water supply became critical from April to May, which was the season of the lowest water supply as determined by comparing monthly water consumption.

EVALUATING THE WATER RESOURCE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC WARMING IN COLD ALPINE REGIONS BY THE WATER BALANCE MODEL: MODELING THE URUMQI RIVER BASIN

In view of the tendency of global climatic warming, the water balance model is employed to estimate the runoff changes in the Urumqi River Basin, Xinjiang Region, China, under ten climate change scenarios, which are combinations of temperature increases by 2K and 4K with precipitation change of 0, ±10% and ±20%, respectively, as the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide increases. The results suggest that runoff changes mainly depend on the precipitation change in the glacier-free or less glacierized basins in cold alpine regions. Effect of temperature on runoff becomes marked gradually with the increase in precipitation. Runoff from glacierized areas, however, is much more sensitive to the temperature change.

寒旱区温度效应下土壤水盐运移多因素耦合理论研究进展

土壤盐碱化是一个全球性问题,严重制约着农业发展,了解水盐运移规律是改善和预防土壤盐碱化的关键。在寒冷干旱地区农田非耕作期,土壤水盐运移规律主要受冻融作用的影响,而冻融循环下正负温交替对土壤水盐的迁移起到了决定性作用。基于冻融循环作用,从正、负温度效应入手,综述了水-热-气-力-盐耦合等一系列研究成果,分析了正、负温度驱动力的产生及数值模型与试验研究的发展,并在此基础上展望了变化环境条件下土壤盐碱化研究未来的发展方向。盐碱地是世界上最重要的后备耕地资源之一,合理、科学地利用盐碱地,对盐渍土进行改良,防止土壤进一步盐碱化,显得尤为重要。改良盐碱地在农业发展中凸显了节水、生态、低能耗的趋势。研究不同条件下土壤盐分演变的驱动机制和生态调控机制,对改善土壤盐分具有重要意义。

西北干旱区城市水资源绿色效率及节水减排研究

运用包含非期望产出的SBM模型测度2011—2020年西北干旱区34个地级市的水资源绿色效率,利用自然断点法探究西北干旱区水资源绿色效率的时空演变特征,并在此基础上分析西北干旱区各地级市的节水减排潜力。结果表明:2011—2020年西北干旱区34个地级市有88.2%的市水资源绿色效率未达到生产前沿面;水资源绿色效率总体呈现出南部、中部、北部逐渐递增的空间分布态势;城市之间的节水减排潜力差异显著,区域之间呈现“中部>南部>北部”的发展格局;从节水减排技术、产业结构、水资源管理等角度提出相关对策建议,以期推动西北干旱区各城市水资源绿色效率的提升。

智能喷灌系统在干旱地区农业生产中的应用

智能喷灌系统在干旱地区的农业生产中显著提升了水资源利用效率和作物产量。通过集成传感器技术、数据采集与处理及自动化控制技术,系统能精准调节灌溉量,满足作物需水需求,减少水资源浪费。同时,智能喷灌系统提高了作物产量,降低了人工成本,促进了农业生产的可持续发展。在阐述智能喷灌系统在干旱地区农业生产中应用的基础上,分析其在提升水资源利用效率、增加作物产量和质量方面的效果,为现代农业发展提供参考。

河西地区2000—2020年植被生态需水量估算

植被生态需水量的准确估算不仅关乎水资源的合理开发与管理,而且为科学制定生态环境保护与修复政策提供基础支持.本研究探讨应用不同方法估算河西地区植被生态需水量的精度与适用性.通过收集河西地区11个通量观测站的植被耗水观测数据,对植被生态需水模型进行验证和标定,选取适合该地区的估算模型——植被覆盖度修正蒸散发法,结合野外观测数据和卫星遥感数据,对2000—2020年河西地区的植被生态需水量进行估算.结果显示,河西地区2000—2020年植被生态需水量为(173.86±6.10)×10^(8)m^(3),在空间上呈现出东南高、西北低的分布格局.随着植被覆盖度以每年0.002的速率显著增加,植被生态需水量呈现出以每年0.70×10^(8)m^(3)的速率显著增加的趋势.本研究为河西地区植被生态需水量的准确估算和深入分析提供科学依据,同时也为未来相关研究提供参考和借鉴.

干旱半干旱区水利风景资源安全影响因素分析——以阿克苏多浪河为例

阿克苏多浪河是天山山脉塔里木河的主要支流,拥有丰富的水利风景资源,处于干旱地带,降水量不多,基于其脆弱的生态系统和独特的地形地貌条件限制,频繁的人类活动威胁到水利旅游的可持续发展。文章运用实地调研和定性定量分析法,以阿克苏河多浪河流域为例,分析以农业、种植业、旅游业为主导的干旱半干旱区水利风景资源安全问题,得出水利风景资源安全受影响的途径主要来自于农业、游客、旅游企业以及水利和旅游设施,影响因素可分为资源、生态等客观因素和技术、管理等主观因素。为类似地区的风景资源开发提供了宝贵的经验借鉴。

干旱半干旱区水资源承载力评价及空间规划指引——以宁夏西海固地区为例

以宁夏西海固地区为例,在区域尺度水资源超载状态分析基础上,构建了栅格尺度水资源承载力评价指标体系和计算方法,阐释了水资源承载力空间格局、特征及其与人口经济要素的空间关系,并提出空间规划与发展路径指引。干旱半干旱区栅格尺度的水资源承载力评估指标体系包括5项一级指标和12项二级指标,案例实证研究与校验表明:指标体系与评估模型具有可操作性,可为空间规划与管制提供更有效的决策支撑;西海固地区栅格尺度的水资源承载力划分为强、较强、中等、较弱以及弱5个等级,强和较强等级区主要位于清水河河谷平原,是黄河扬水灌区与地下水资源富集区的叠加区域,较弱和弱等级区集中分布于黄土丘陵区、六盘山及其余脉山地区。在水资源承载力空间差异分析的基础上,因地制宜地制定空间开发指引,建立"节流为主、开源为辅"的水资源保障体系,有助于构建与区域水资源条件相适应的人口产业布局模式。

黑河流域水资源信息系统设计

建立黑河流域水资源信息系统的目标是为黑河流域水资源合理利用与经济社会和生态环境协调发展的研究提供基础数据和技术支撑 ,并辅助建立流域决策支持系统和水资源模型。本文介绍黑河流域水资源信息系统的设计和应用 ,共包括 2 7个图层的空间数据、40a气候和水文序列、以及部分NOAAAVHRR和TM遥感数据 ,是我国西北内陆河流域最完整的水资源信息系统之一 。

黑河流域水资源合理开发利用研究

长期以来黑河流域水资源总量的不足 ,诱发了上下游之间、经济用水与生态和环境之间等一系列用水矛盾发生 .根据有关水文气象资料及前期研究成果对黑河流域水资源数量、特征、利用现状及供需平衡进行了分析研究 .结果表明 ,目前黑河流域水资源已呈现出严重不足 ,并且由此引起了流域内许多地方尤其是下游额济纳地区生态与环境的急剧恶化 .究其原因 ,固然与内陆地区气候干旱等先天不利条件有很大的关系 ,但最主要的原因还是人类对水资源的开发利用不当造成的 .因此 ,在区域社会经济的发展中 ,应充分考虑水资源的制约条件 ,从可持续发展的角度出发 。

西北干旱地区水资源与生态环境保护

西北干旱地区的水资源主要是地表水。地表水具有时空分布不均、河川径流补给来源的多样性和与地下水转换频繁等许多特点。西北干旱地区的生态环境在人工绿洲内部有所改善 ,但在绿洲外 ,正在进一步恶化 ,包括土地沙漠化、冰川退缩、湖泊干涸、下游河道断流、沙尘暴频次增加、天然草地大面积退化、天然植被遭到破坏等。这些问题都需要用水来解决。当前生态环境恶化的典型事例有 3处 :塔里木河下游。

乌兰布和沙漠北部地下水资源的环境同位素探讨

工作范围在乌兰布和沙漠北部 ,面积共约 4 2 0 0km2 。年平均降水量 85～ 1 4 0mm ,由西南向东递增 ,降水同位素组成δD～δ18O恰与Craig线一致 ,并与阿拉善地区相同。测得地下水中同位素含量范围 ,δ18O为 -7 4‰～ 1 2 1‰ ,氚为 0～ 1 90TU ,14 C为 1 7～ 97pMC。由地下水同位素组成区别出与降水线平行或相交的 6种类型。从所有地下水水点 ,以及可能有补给关系的其它水点的各类同位素关系 ,包括δ18O ,T ,δ13 C和pMC ,识别出两类承压水的各 3个补给源和潜水的 3个补给源 ,并区别出一组氚含量极低的潜水 ,对不同位置的承压水和潜水 ,由其同位素关系估算出了各补给源的组成和变幅。

呼伦湖多波段遥感水深反演模型研究

为探求呼伦湖水深分布及水下地形情况,以5组LandsatTM/ETM+影像数据及湖区分布的41个实测水深点为基础,应用太阳光波段及热红外辐射波段组合模型进行水深模拟,通过对模型验证及误差分析,得出最优模型为对数模型。进一步的敏感性分析表明,以波段6的敏感度为最大。应用最优模型对波段进行运算,反演效果较好,以2007-09-24为最优。其结果表明融入热红外辐射的多波段水深反演模型可适用于北方寒旱区水体。

气候变化及人类活动对西北干旱区水资源影响研究综述

本文回顾了西北干旱区气候变化事实及其对水资源影响的最新研究进展,从气候变化和人类活动两个角度综述了水资源变化的原因,以及未来西北干旱区水资源变化与适应对策。研究表明:1961年以来西北干旱区呈现明显暖湿化趋势,其中冬季增温最快,夏季降水增加速率最大。伊利河谷、塔城等地区增温趋势最大,北疆降水量增加最多。受气候变暖导致冰雪快速消融和山区降水增加的影响,西北干旱区西部河流黑河、疏勒河、塔里木河出山口径流量显著增加。由于东部河流石羊河径流的补给主要靠降水,降水的减少导致径流呈现下降趋势。不合理人类活动造成石羊河、黑河和开都河中下游径流减少。本文提出了西北干旱区亟待深入研究的任务:极端天气气候事件的变化规律及其对水资源影响;未来气候变化和水资源的预估;气候变化归因研究;气候变化-社会经济活动一体化适应策略选择;水资源科学合理定量分配等。

我国北方干旱半干旱地区水资源演变规律及其供需状况评价

利用 1 994～ 2 0 0 0年的水文资料和第一次全国水资源评价成果 ,运用统计学方法 ,分析了我国北方干旱半干旱地区水资源分布情况及其近 5 0年来的演变规律 ,定量说明了干旱半干旱地区大气降水与水资源分布的一致性关系。评价了干旱半干旱地区水资源开发利用现状和供需平衡状况 ,为该地区优化配置水资源。