Land use and cover change and influencing factor analysis in the Shiyang River Basin,China

Land use and cover change(LUCC)is the most direct manifestation of the interaction between anthropological activities and the natural environment on Earth's surface,with significant impacts on the environment and social economy.Rapid economic development and climate change have resulted in significant changes in land use and cover.The Shiyang River Basin,located in the eastern part of the Hexi Corridor in China,has undergone significant climate change and LUCC over the past few decades.In this study,we used the random forest classification to obtain the land use and cover datasets of the Shiyang River Basin in 1991,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 based on Landsat images.We validated the land use and cover data in 2015 from the random forest classification results(this study),the high-resolution dataset of annual global land cover from 2000 to 2015(AGLC-2000-2015),the global 30 m land cover classification with a fine classification system(GLC_FCS30),and the first Landsat-derived annual China Land Cover Dataset(CLCD)against ground-truth classification results to evaluate the accuracy of the classification results in this study.Furthermore,we explored and compared the spatiotemporal patterns of LUCC in the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Shiyang River Basin over the past 30 years,and employed the random forest importance ranking method to analyze the influencing factors of LUCC based on natural(evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and surface soil moisture)and anthropogenic(nighttime light,gross domestic product(GDP),and population)factors.The results indicated that the random forest classification results for land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin in 2015 outperformed the AGLC-2000-2015,GLC_FCS30,and CLCD datasets in both overall and partial validations.Moreover,the classification results in this study exhibited a high level of agreement with the ground truth features.From 1991 to 2020,the area of bare land exhibited a decreasing trend,with changes primarily occurring in the middle and lower reaches of the basin.The area of grassland initially decreased and then increased,with changes occurring mainly in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.In contrast,the area of cropland initially increased and then decreased,with changes occurring in the middle and lower reaches.The LUCC was influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors.Climatic factors and population contributed significantly to LUCC,and the importance values of evapotranspiration,precipitation,temperature,and population were 22.12%,32.41%,21.89%,and 19.65%,respectively.Moreover,policy interventions also played an important role.Land use and cover in the Shiyang River Basin exhibited fluctuating changes over the past 30 years,with the ecological environment improving in the last 10 years.This suggests that governance efforts in the study area have had some effects,and the government can continue to move in this direction in the future.The findings can provide crucial insights for related research and regional sustainable development in the Shiyang River Basin and other similar arid and semi-arid areas.

Comprehending drivers of land use land cover change from 1999 to 2021 in the Pithoragarh District,Kumaon Himalaya,Uttarakhand,India

The Himalayan region has been experiencing stark impacts of climate change,demographic and livelihood pattern changes.The analysis of land use and land cover(LULC)change provides insights into the shifts in spatial and temporal patterns of landscape.These changes are the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural/climatic factors.The present study attempts to monitor and comprehend the main drivers behind LULC changes(1999-2021)in the Himalayan region of Pithoragarh district,Uttarakhand.Pithoragarh district is a border district,remotely located in the north-east region of Uttarakhand,India.The study draws upon primary and secondary data sources.A total of 400 household surveys and five group discussions from 38 villages were conducted randomly to understand the climate perception of the local community and the drivers of change.Satellite imagery,CRU(Climatic Research Unit)climate data and climate perception data from the field have been used to comprehensively comprehend,analyze,and discuss the trends and reasons for LULC change.GIS and remote sensing techniques were used to construct LULC maps.This multifaceted approach ensures comprehensive and corroborated information.Five classes were identified and formed viz-cultivation,barren,settlement,snow,and vegetation.Results show that vegetation and builtup have increased whereas cultivation,barren land,and snow cover have decreased.The study further aims to elucidate the causes behind LULC changes in the spatially heterogeneous region,distinguishing between those attributed to human activities,climate shifts,and the interconnected impacts of both.The study provides a comprehensive picture of the study area and delivers a targeted understanding of local drivers and their potential remedies by offering a foundation for formulating sustainable adaptation policies in the region.

Response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities in the Shiyang River Basin of China during 2001-2022

Understanding the response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities is critical for addressing future conflicts between humans and the environment,and maintaining ecosystem stability.Here,we aimed to identify the determining factors of vegetation variation and explore the sensitivity of vegetation to temperature(SVT)and the sensitivity of vegetation to precipitation(SVP)in the Shiyang River Basin(SYRB)of China during 2001-2022.The climate data from climatic research unit(CRU),vegetation index data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS),and land use data from Landsat images were used to analyze the spatial-temporal changes in vegetation indices,climate,and land use in the SYRB and its sub-basins(i.e.,upstream,midstream,and downstream basins)during 2001-2022.Linear regression analysis and correlation analysis were used to explore the SVT and SVP,revealing the driving factors of vegetation variation.Significant increasing trends(P<0.05)were detected for the enhanced vegetation index(EVI)and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)in the SYRB during 2001-2022,with most regions(84%)experiencing significant variation in vegetation,and land use change was determined as the dominant factor of vegetation variation.Non-significant decreasing trends were detected in the SVT and SVP of the SYRB during 2001-2022.There were spatial differences in vegetation variation,SVT,and SVP.Although NDVI and EVI exhibited increasing trends in the upstream,midstream,and downstream basins,the change slope in the downstream basin was lower than those in the upstream and midstream basins,the SVT in the upstream basin was higher than those in the midstream and downstream basins,and the SVP in the downstream basin was lower than those in the upstream and midstream basins.Temperature and precipitation changes controlled vegetation variation in the upstream and midstream basins while human activities(land use change)dominated vegetation variation in the downstream basin.We concluded that there is a spatial heterogeneity in the response of vegetation variation to climate change and human activities across different sub-basins of the SYRB.These findings can enhance our understanding of the relationship among vegetation variation,climate change,and human activities,and provide a reference for addressing future conflicts between humans and the environment in the arid inland river basins.

The Climate Response to Global Forest Area Changes under Different Warming Scenarios in China

Human activities have notably affected the Earth’s climate through greenhouse gases(GHG), aerosol, and land use/land cover change(LULCC). To investigate the impact of forest changes on regional climate under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs), changes in surface air temperature and precipitation over China under low and medium/high radiative forcing scenarios from 2021 to 2099 are analyzed using multimodel climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6). Results show that the climate responses to forest changes are more significant under the low radiative forcing scenario. Deforestation would increase the mean, interannual variability, and the trend of surface air temperature under the low radiative forcing scenario, but it would decrease those indices under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario. The changes in temperature show significant spatial heterogeneity. For precipitation, under the low radiative forcing scenario, deforestation would lead to a significant increase in northern China and a significant decrease in southern China, and the effects are persistent in the near term(2021–40), middle term(2041–70), and long term(2071–99). In contrast, under the medium/high radiative forcing scenario, precipitation increases in the near term and long term over most parts of China, but it decreases in the middle term, especially in southern, northern,and northeast China. The magnitude of precipitation response to deforestation remains comparatively small.

Effects of climate change and land use/cover change on the volume of the Qinghai Lake in China

Qinghai Lake is the largest saline lake in China.The change in the lake volume is an indicator of the variation in water resources and their response to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP)in China.The present study quantitatively evaluated the effects of climate change and land use/cover change(LUCC)on the lake volume of the Qinghai Lake in China from 1958 to 2018,which is crucial for water resources management in the Qinghai Lake Basin.To explore the effects of climate change and LUCC on the Qinghai Lake volume,we analyzed the lake level observation data and multi-period land use/land cover(LULC)data by using an improved lake volume estimation method and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.Our results showed that the lake level decreased at the rate of 0.08 m/a from 1958 to 2004 and increased at the rate of 0.16 m/a from 2004 to 2018.The lake volume decreased by 105.40×10^(8) m^(3) from 1958 to 2004,with the rate of 2.24×10^(8) m^(3)/a,whereas it increased by 74.02×10^(8) m^(3) from 2004 to 2018,with the rate of 4.66×10^(8) m^(3)/a.Further,the climate of the Qinghai Lake Basin changed from warm-dry to warm-humid.From 1958 to 2018,the increase in precipitation and the decrease in evaporation controlled the change of the lake volume,which were the main climatic factors affecting the lake volume change.From 1977 to 2018,the measured water yield showed an"increase-decrease-increase"fluctuation in the Qinghai Lake Basin.The effects of climate change and LUCC on the measured water yield were obviously different.From 1977 to 2018,the contribution rate of LUCC was -0.76% and that of climate change was 100.76%;the corresponding rates were 8.57% and 91.43% from 1977 to 2004,respectively,and -4.25% and 104.25% from 2004 to 2018,respectively.Quantitative analysis of the effects and contribution rates of climate change and LUCC on the Qinghai Lake volume revealed the scientific significance of climate change and LUCC,as well as their individual and combined effects in the Qinghai Lake Basin and on the QTP.This study can contribute to the water resources management and regional sustainable development of the Qinghai Lake Basin.

Scenario simulation of water retention services under land use/cover and climate changes: a case study of the Loess Plateau, China

Comprehensive assessments of ecosystem services in environments under the influences of human activities and climate change are critical for sustainable regional ecosystem management. Therefore,integrated interdisciplinary modelling has become a major focus of ecosystem service assessment. In this study, we established a model that integrates land use/cover change(LUCC), climate change, and water retention services to evaluate the spatial and temporal variations of water retention services in the Loess Plateau of China in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050). An improved Markov-Cellular Automata(Markov-CA) model was used to simulate land use/land cover patterns, and ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to simulate and assess water retention services from 2000 to 2050 under six combined scenarios, including three land use/land cover scenarios(historical scenario(HS), ecological protection scenario(EPS), and urban expansion scenario(UES)) and two climate change scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where RCP is the representative concentration pathway). LUCCs in the historical period(2000–2015) and in the future(2020–2050) are dominated by transformations among agricultural land, urban land and grassland. Urban land under UES increased significantly by 0.63×10^(3) km^(2)/a, which was higher than the increase of urban land under HS and EPS. In the Loess Plateau, water yield decreased by 17.20×10^(6) mm and water retention increased by 0.09×10^(6) mm in the historical period(2000–2015),especially in the Interior drainage zone and its surrounding areas. In the future(2020–2050), the pixel means of water yield is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(96.63 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(95.46mm), and the pixel means of water retention is higher under RCP4.5 scenario(1.95 mm) than under RCP8.5 scenario(1.38 mm). RCP4.5-EPS shows the highest total water retention capacity on the plateau scale among the six combined scenarios, with the value of 1.27×10^(6) mm. Ecological restoration projects in the Loess Plateau have enhanced soil and water retention. However, more attention needs to be paid not only to the simultaneous increase in water retention services and evapotranspiration but also to the type and layout of restored vegetation. Furthermore, urbanization needs to be controlled to prevent uncontrollable LUCCs and climate change. Our findings provide reference data for the regional water and land resources management and the sustainable development of socio-ecological systems in the Loess Plateau under LUCC and climate change scenarios.

The spatial-temporal changes of the land use/cover in the Dongting Lake area during the last decade

The research on the land use/cover change is one of the frontiers and the hot spots in the global change research. Based on the Chinese resource and environment spatial-temporal database, and using the Landsat TM and ETM data of 1990 and 2000 respectively, we analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use/cover changes in the Dongting Lake area during the last decade. The result shows that during the last ten years there were three land-use types that had changed remarkably. The cultivated land decreased by 0.57% of the total cultivated land. The built-up land and water area expanded, with an increase of 8.97% and 0.43% respectively. The conversion between land use types mostly happened among these three land-use types, especially frequently between cultivated land and water area. The land-use change speed of land-use type is different. Three cities experienced the greatest degree of land-use change among all the administrative districts, which means that the land use in these cities changed much quickly. The following changed area was the west and south of the Dongting Lake area. The slowest changed area is the north and east area.

Analysis to driving forces of land use change in Lu’an mining area

By selecting impact factors of driving force and formulating evaluation criteria of the impacts, the evaluation system of corresponding driving force impact of land use change was established. Taking Lu'an mining area as an example, the specific impact factors of coal mine were comprehensively evaluated and analyzed in order to carry out qualitative and quantitative analysis for the driving force of mining-land use change. The principal component analysis shows that the social and economic development in mining area from 2000 to 2007 demonstrates continuous accelerate trends, and the impacts of its overall driving force to land use change are increased gradually. The socio-economic factors have more impacts to mining-land use change than those of the natural resources. The main driving force of mining-land use change also include population, technological progress and policy.

Assessment of Ecological Risk to Land Use in Liaoning Province Based on Climate Change

Based on the climatic data and other statistics of climatic data of 54 meteorological stations from 1956 to 2005 in Liangning Province,the annual and seasonal light,heat and water and the like major elements of climatic resources are diagnosed and analyzed by using the method of linear climate trend rate. The results show that warming trend is 0.25 ℃/10 a,the precipitation decrease gradually by 2.2 mm/a and the decreasing trend of solar radiation and hours of sunshine is not dramatic. The overall climate change trend is warming and drying,featuring "significantly increased temperature,the decreased precipitation and sunshine". These features are significant in autumn,thus leading to the trend of moving west and retreating east of the phenology boundaries. The results of scenario analysis on ecological security show that the ecological risk is spreading rapidly from the northwest to the east and to the south and form the southeastern and southern coastal line to the inland;different ecological land-use system have different ecological fragility. Specifically,the bare land and low coverage grassland have highest ecological vulnerability,while the forest and paddy filed have lowest ecological vulnerability. Therefore,suggestions on the ecological land use are put forward in terms of maintaining the overall ecological land use balance,saving water and adapting to climate change.

Effects of Land Use Change on Eco-environment in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin——A Case Study of Yanting County, Sichuan Province

With the artificial alder and cypress mixed forest being planted, there has been a marked land use change since 1970s' in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin, China. Data from meteorological observations or posts operated over long time, measurement and calculation of NPP (net primary production) and biomass of biological community, and analysis of soil organic matter content show that the artificial alder and cypress mixed forest has outstanding eco-environmental effect: adjusting local climate, raising soil fertility, alleviating menace of drought, and raising NPP and biomass of biological community. It is very beneficial for improving ecological environment to afforest artificial alder and cypress mixed forest in populous Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin, China. Key Words: land use/land cover change (LUCC); eco-environmental effect; Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin; the artificial alder and cypress mixed forest

Re-assessing Vegetation Carbon Storage and Emissions from Land Use Change in China Using Surface Area

Land surface area estimation can provide basic information for accurately estimating vegetation carbon storage under complex terrain. This study selected China, a country dominated by mountains, as an example, and calculated terrestrial vegetation carbon storage(VCS) for 2000 and 2015 using land surface area and traditional ellipsoid area. The land surface area is estimated by a triangular network on the high precision digital elevation model.The results showed that: 1) The VCS estimated by the surface area measurement in 2000 and 2015 were 0.676 and0.692 Pg C(1 Pg = 1015 g) higher than the VCS calculated using the ellipsoid area, respectively. 2) As the elevation increases, the differences between VCS estimated by surface area measurement and ellipsoid area measurement are expanding. Specially, a clear gap was present starting from an elevation of 500 m, with the relative error exceeds8.99%. 3) The total amount of carbon emitted due to land use change reached 0.114 Pg C. The conversions of forestland and grassland to other land use type are the main reasons of the loss of vegetation carbon storage, resulting in a total amount of biomass carbon storage decreased by 0.942 and 0.111 Pg C, respectively. This study was a preliminary exploration of incorporating land surface area as a factor in resource estimation, which can help more accurately understand the status of resources and the environment in the region.

Effect of land-use and land-cover change on nutrients in soil in Bashang area,China

The Bashang area is a water source area and ecological barrier zone for Beijing and Tianjin. The area is located at 200 km from Beijing and Tianjin and is a typical agriculture pasture interlacing zone, in which the eco environment is vulnerable and hence it is sensitive to environmental change. The area is relatively lagged in social and economic development, where the traditional cultivation mode is predominated in agriculture and animal husbandry, but the disturbance by human activity is relatively small. Therefore, in order to reveal the interrelation between eco environmental change in the area and environmental change in Beijing and Tianjin area, it is fairly necessary to study the effect of land use and land cover change on nutrients in soil in this area. According to the actual situation of changed land use for the limited time period, five series of changed land plots were selected and 4 samples were collected from each series for the study. The samples were collected from different soil forming levels at the same site in different time. Analysis of the collected samples indicates that in the process of change of land use and land cover, the nutrients in soil, such as organic matter, total N, total P, total K, and available N, P, K, and B, Mo, Mn, Zn, Cu, and Fe, have regularly changed. When the land had changed from grassland and non irrigated farmland into woodland, and from non irrigated farmland into irrigated field, the nutrients in soil totally increased. But there exists some exception, i.e. quick acting N, P, K, and some microelements have appeared to be inconsistent with the mentioned above regularity in some cases.

The Impact of Land Use Change for Greenhouse Gas Inventories and State-Level Climate Mediation Policy: A GIS Methodology Applied to Connecticut

Greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories conducted at state and regional levels serve to quantify long-term emissions trends and set benchmarks against which to evaluate the effectiveness of state government-mandated emissions reductions. GHG inventories which incompletely account for land use, land change, and forestry (LUCF) due to insufficient measurement tools discount the value of terrestrial carbon (C) sinks. In consequence, sink preservation is often omitted from regional land use planning. This paper proposes an accounting methodology which estimates foregone C sequestration derived LUCF change in the southern New England State of Connecticut (CT). The Natural Capital Project’s InVEST program provided a template for modeling C storage and sequestration for CT’s land class categories. LandSat mapping of long-term land cover patterns in CT conducted by CLEAR at the University of CT served as input data for InVEST computer modeling of C sequestration, both realized and foregone due to LUCF. The results showed that: 1) Land converted from high C density forestland to low density C land cover classes reduced the rate of C sequestration loss at 4.62 times the rate of forest reduction. Forest loss of 3.83% over twenty-five years was responsible for foregone C sequestration equivalent to 17.68% of total 2010 sequestration. 2) Accumulating C stocks pushed total annual sequestration from a 1985 baseline level of 866 MMTCO2 to 1116 MMTCO2 by 2010—a 250 MMTCO2 increment. 3) C sequestration from forest loss since 1985 would have yielded additional sequestration of 53.74 MMTCO2 by 2010. By 2002, foregone yield surpassed CT’s annual fossil fuel emissions, currently at 40 MMTCO2. 4) Preservation of forest C stocks over time becomes the determining factor for influencing biomass C sequestration levels. Deciduous forests have a preponderant influence on CO2 budgets. The ground-up methodology to quantify land-based C sequestration presented here demonstrates the influence of forest biomass in state-level C mitigation efforts useful to climate-oriented policy makers.

THE DRIVING FORCES OF LAND USE/COVER CHANGE INTHE UPSTREAM AREA OF THE NENJIANG RIVER

ABSTRACT: Based on the Landsat 5 and Landsat 7 TM images, the land use/cover change was detected in the upstream area of the Nenjiang River between 1995 and 2000. With the spatial analysis techniques of GIS, the maps of land use degree and its change within this period were produced. To identify the causes of changes, elevation and slope were regarded as the main natural influencing factors and were transformed from coverage format to grid format within GIS. The Thiesson polygon method was used to the spatial allocation of socio-economic factors including human population, livestock numbers, mechanizing power of farming and the nearest distance from the changed pixel to the trunk stream and to main settlements, thereby the spatial relationship between land use degree change and socio-economic factor variation was analyzed. According to results of the spatial correlation, the determinants of changes in land use/cover, i. e. elevation, slope, population density change, livestock increase were extracted quantitatively in this area. At last, the spatial multi-linear regression model of land use degree change was developed as follows: △ La = 11. 037-4. 512 * eleva-tion-0. 298 * slope + 0. 292 *△ population + 2. 596 *△ livestock.

Integrated assessment of extreme climate and landuse change impact on sediment yield in a mountainous transboundary watershed of India and Pakistan

Assessment of climate and land use changes impact including extreme events on the sediment yield is vital for water and power stressed countries. Mangla Reservoir is the second-largest reservoir in Pakistan, and its capacity is being reduced due to rapid sedimentation and will be threatened under climate and land use changes. This paper discusses the consequences of climate and land use change on sediment yield at Mangla Dam using General Circulation Models(GCMs), Land Change Modeler(LCM), Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model after calibration and validation.Results show that over the historical period temperature is observed to increase by 0.10 o C/decade and forest cover is observed to reduce to the level of only 16% in 2007. Nevertheless, owing to the forest conservation policy, the forest cover raised back to 27% in 2012. Anticipated land use maps by using LCM of 2025, 2050 and 2100 showed that the forest cover will be 33%, 39.2%, and, 53.7%, respectively. All seven GCMs projected the increase in temperature and five GCMs projected an increase in precipitation,however, two GCMs projected a decrease in precipitation. Owing to climate change, land use change and combined impact of climate and land use change on annual sediment yield(2011-2100) may vary from-42.9% to 39.4%, 0% to-27.3% and,-73%to 39.4%, respectively. Under climate change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with extreme events and is expected to increase with the increase in extreme events. Under land use change scenarios projected sediment yield is mainly linked with the forest cover and is expected to decrease with the increase in forest cover. The results of this study are beneficial for planners, watershed managers and policymakers to mitigate the impacts of climate and land use changes to enhance reservoir life by reducing the sediment yield.

Hydrological Response to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Dry–Warm Valley of the Upper Yangtze River

The hydrological process in the dry–warm valley of the mountainous area of southwest China has unique characteristics and has attracted scientific attention worldwide.Given that this is an area with fragile ecosystems and intensive water resource conflicts in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,a systematic identification of its hydrological responses to climate and land use variations needs to be performed.In this study,MIKE SHE was employed and calibrated for the Anning River Basin in the dry–warm valley.Subsequently,a deep learning neural network model of the long short-term memory(LSTM)and a traditional multi-model ensemble mean(MMEM)method were used for an ensemble of 31 global climate models(GCMs)for climate projection.The cellular automata–Markov model was implemented to project the spatial pattern of land use considering climatic,social,and economic conditions.Four sets of climate projections and three sets of land use projections were generated and fed into the MIKE SHE to project hydrologic responses from 2021 to 2050.For the calibration and first validation periods of the daily simulation,the coefficients of determination(R)were 0.85 and 0.87 and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values were 0.72 and 0.73,respectively.The advanced LSTM performed better than the traditional MMEM method for daily temperature and monthly precipitation.The average monthly temperature projection under representative concentration pathway 8.5(RCP8.5)was expected to be slightly higher than that under RCP4.5;this is contrary to the average monthly precipitation from June to October.The variations in streamflow and actual evapotranspiration(ET)were both more sensitive to climate change than to land use change.There was no significant relationship between the variations in streamflow and the ET in the study area.This work could provide general variation conditions and a range of hydrologic responses to complex and changing environments,thereby assisting with stochastic uncertainty and optimizing water resource management in critical regions.

Land Use Change and Its Effect on Environment Based on Farmers’Behaviors: A Case Study in Agricultural Areas of Tibet, China

In the case study in Agricultural Area of Tibet, the process and characteristics of farmers' land use were surveyed by semi-structural interview questionnaire. By comparing the change of land covers and farmers' land decision in two periods, the spatial connection of them was obtained. And the relations among farmers' land decision, land use change and environment were examined by calculating emergy and value flow. The results show that: hunting the maximal profits is the primary aim of farmers' land decision; farmers' land decision is incompatible with sustainable land use presently; farmers' land decision and land cover can be embodied spatially by each other; the change of farmers' land decision can be monitored by observing the change of land cover, and the sustainability of farmers' land decision can be appraised by calculating emergy and value flow.

Investigation of Climate and Land Use Policy Change Impacts on Food Security in Eastern Sudan, Gadarif State

The aims of this research were to investigate the impacts of climate variations on land use policies, food security and vegetation cover in Gadarif State (eastern Sudan) during 1961 to 2013. Analysis of precipitation and temperature time series revealed that the annual precipitation was decreasing while the temperature was increased in the study area. Precipitation was decreasing at a rate of &minus;50.3 mm/10a, while the temperature was increasing at a rate of 0.02°C/10a. The result of both SPEI and SPI showed that the Gadarif State has been changed to a high frequency of drought during 1961-2013. Sorghum yield showed a significant positive relationship with precipitation during July and October (CC = 0.364 and 0.321, respectively), moreover, a significant positive relationship between Sesame yield and precipitation was observed during July (CC = 0.335). A significant negative relationship between Sorghum yield and mean temperature was observed during the rainy season (July to October) with CC = &minus;0.278. The yield productivity of Sorghum and Sesame had decreased significantly (from more than 800 kg/ha in the 1960s to less than 200 kg/ha in 2000s for Sorghum, while 500 kg/ha in 1960s to 100 kg/ha in 2000s for Sesame). The Mechanized Rain-fed Agriculture (MRA) area of Sorghum and Sesame in the Gadarif State had been increased from 1,058,241 ha to 2,799,655 ha during 1961 to 2013. Thus, we ultimately suggest that in the Gadarif State, policy makers must strive for an increase in yield per unit area by using sufficient fertilizers along with the gradual increment in tendencies of grain production through expansion of the cultivated area.

Implications of Land Use Land Cover Change and Climate Variability on Future Prospects of Beef Cattle Production in the Lake Victoria Basin

This paper presents the lessons learnt from a research project titled “Improving Beef Cattle Productivity for Enhanced Food Security and Efficient Utilization of Natural Resources in the Lake Victoria Basin” which includes Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. The key focus is on the implications of land use land cover change and climate variability on the future prospects of beef cattle production in this region. The study utilizes information and data from natural resources and climate components to deduce the impact of land use and land cover changes on climate variability. Additional analysis is conducted to summarize the land use and land cover data to carry out analysis on climate data using the Mann-Kendal test, linear regression and moving averages to reveal patterns of change and trends in annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. The findings reveal that the study areas of Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) have changed over time following land cover manipulations and land use change, coupled with climate variability. The grazing land has been converted to agriculture and settlements, thereby reducing cattle grazing land which is the cheapest and major feed source for ruminant livestock production. Although the cattle population has been on the increase in the same period, it has been largely attributed to the fact that the carrying capacity of available grazing areas had not been attained. The current stocking rates in the LVB reveal that the rangelands are greatly overstocked and overgrazed with land degradation already evidenced in some areas. Climate variability coupled with a decrease in grazing resources is driving unprecedented forage scarcity which is now a major limiting factor to cattle production. Crop cultivation and settlement expansion are major land use types overtaking grazing lands;therefore the incorporation of crop residues into ruminant feeding systems could be a feasible way to curtail rangeland degradation and increase beef cattle production.

Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Coastal Area of Watamu Mida Creek, Kenya

Watamu Mida creek coastal areas, mainly the shoreline, the mangroves and the general environment have been changing due to the impact of land use change, shoreline erosion, human population pressure and the expansion of tourism sector. This research assesses the impact of land use change on mangrove dynamics and shoreline erosion as well as the main driving factors that cause these changes in Watamu Midacreek. This study uses old aerial photographs (1969 and 1989), current high resolution satellite images World view (2010) and ground truthing in combination with information from the local community to analyze the impact of change in land use from 1969-2010. Land use and cover types were visually interpreted, digitized and delineated using aerial photographs of 1969, 1989 and 2010 satellite images in ArcGIS.9.3.1 and ERDAS IMAGINE 2014 software. The results of the land use change between 1969 and 1989 showed a decline of scrub land, miscellaneous coastal vegetation, coastal bush, thicket with trees and mangroves, whereas new types of land use which emerged during this period were town and barren land. The greatest land use change rate observed between 1969 and 1989 was in miscellaneous coastal vegetation at 2.5%, while coastal bush experienced a significant negative change rate of 6.5%. The main land use changes observed between 1989 and 2010 were increasing coastal bush, an expansion of town and urban areas, hotels and private holiday houses. Encroachments into the mangrove forest have been observed both by local people and foreign private holiday house owners. The change in land use had an impact on shoreline changes as well. Areas mainly covered by old trees, and coastal bushes which protected the shoreline from erosion currently have been converted into very big hotels and several private holiday house complexes. The main drivers of land use change were human population growth and policy (through weakness of law enforcement). Policies and regulations which are not currently implemented need to be updated based on the current pressure-state situation, and there should be strong law enforcement and strict regulation to control any unplanned developments along the coast and in the neighboring hinterland.