Predominant types of regional cold waves in North China and their historical changes

寒潮事件对东亚地区的社会经济,生态系统和人体健康影响巨大.根据1980-2019年间10月至次年3月的每日寒潮记录和K-means聚类,本文识别出了中国两种不同类型的区域性寒潮(T1和T2). T1区域性寒潮主要影响东北地区,T2区域性寒潮则主要影响华北和东部地区.与T1区域性寒潮相比, T2区域性寒潮强度更强,持续时间更长,影响范围更广. 1980–2019年期间, T1区域性寒潮的频率显著增加,而T2区域性寒潮的频率则没有趋势变化. T1和T2区域性寒潮事件均与西伯利亚高压增强有关,然而与它们相关的对流层中层波列明显不同.在T1区域性寒潮事件发生期间,西伯利亚-蒙古上空出现负-正模态的500-hPa位势高度异常波列,削弱了东亚大槽,导致西伯利亚冷空气东移.T1区域寒潮频次增加趋势可能与全球变暖引起的500-hPa位势高度的线性趋势变化有关.与T2区域寒潮事件相关的波列则在乌拉尔山脉,蒙古和华北地区形成了脊-槽-脊环流异常,导致冷空气向东南方向入侵.本文得出结论,由于两类区域寒潮影响不同,西伯利亚高压增强和对流层中层波列模态在我国区域性寒潮事件的预报中应综合考虑.

A Statistical Linkage between Extreme Cold Wave Events in Southern China and Sea Ice Extent in the Barents-Kara Seas from 1289 to 2017

Arctic sea ice loss and the associated enhanced warming has been related to midlatitude weather and climate changes through modulate meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation. However, contrasting lines of evidence result in low confidence in the influence of Arctic warming on midlatitude climate. This study examines the additional perspectives that palaeoclimate evidence provides on the decadal relationship between autumn sea ice extent (SIE) in the Barents-Kara (B-K) Seas and extreme cold wave events (ECWEs) in southern China. Reconstruction of the winter Cold Index and SIE in the B-K Seas from 1289 to 2017 shows that a significant anti-phase relationship occurred during most periods of decreasing SIE, indicating that cold winters are more likely in low SIE years due to the “bridge” role of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Siberian High. It is confirmed that the recent increase in ECWEs in southern China is closely related to the sea ice decline in the B-K Seas. However, our results show that the linkage is unstable, especially in high SIE periods, and it is probably modulated by atmospheric internal variability.

Causes of a Cold Wave Process Accompanied by Gale and a Drop in Temperature in Central Inner Mongolia

Based on the conventional high-and low-altitude and surface observation data,the weather analysis and diagnosis methods were applied to analyze the cold wave process of Ulanqab in January 2016 from the aspects of weather reality,circulation background,weather causes,and forecast test.The results show that strong cold air accumulated gradually near Lake Baikal and Central Siberia,affecting the city in a northwest path.During the cold wave process,the transverse trough moved southwards slowly at 500 hPa,and the ground cold high pressure was strong and stable.The cold air continued to move southwards,resulting in the strong cold wave and gale weather with a large impact range and long duration.The high-altitude jet at 300 hPa strengthened the cold wave pile,which was conducive to the outbreak of the cold wave.The intensity and location changes of the 500 hPa positive vorticity center,850 hPa cold advection region and 24-h ground pressure variation well showed the intensity of the cold wave process and the variation of the affected region.The influence of strong cold advection,ground positive pressure variation,and strong vertical wind shear were the main reasons for a strong drop in temperature and gale weather in this process.The test results of prediction reveal that the forecast value of the maximum temperature were relatively lower than the actual value,while the forecast of the minimum temperature was more accurate.The three warning signals were issued timely and accurately.The circulation pattern predicted by numerical models was more accurate in the early stage of the process,but there was an error in the late stage,and the forecast system moved slower than the actual situation.

A Preliminary Study on the Intensity of Cold Wave Storm Surges of Laizhou Bay

Abstract Dike failure and marine losses are quite prominent in Laizhou Bay during the period of cold wave storm surges because of its open coastline to the north and fiat topography. In order to evaluate the intensity of c01d wave storm surge, the hindcast of ma- rine elements induced by cold waves in Laizhou Bay from 1985 to 2004 is conducted using a cold wave storm surge-wave coupled model and the joint return period of extreme water level, concomitant wave height, and concomitant wind speed are calculated. A new criterion of cold wave storm surge intensity based on such studies is developed. Considering the frequency of cold wave, this paper introduces a Poisson trivariate compound reconstruction model to calculate the joint return period, which is closer to the reality. By using the newly defined cold wave storm surge intensity, the ＇cold wave grade＇ in meteorology can better describe the severity of cold wave storm surges and the warning level is well corresponding to different intensities of cold wave storm surges. Therefore, it provides a proper guidance to marine hydrological analysis, disaster prevention and marine structure design in Laizhou Bay.

Analysis of Cold Wave Weather Process in Dalian Area on December 29-30,2009

By using the routine weather data and the numerical value forecast products,applying the weather analysis and diagnostic analysis methods,the cold wave weather which happened in the south area of Dalian was analyzed on December 29-30,2009.The results showed that based on the temperature rise in prior period,the strong cold air accumulated in Mongolia and passed Ulan Bator,Erenhot to invade Dalian area.In the cold wave process,the circulation situations in the middle and high latitudes were the 'one ridge and one trough' pattern in Asia.The dynamic mechanisms were the rotary low-pressure trough in high altitude and the strong frontal zone,and the flow field which induced the cold wave to break out was the 'low trough rotation pattern'.After the cold air broke out,Dalian area was controlled by the strong cold advection.The cold high-pressure on the ground entered into the key zone and reached the intensity of cold wave.However,the circulation of cold wave occurrence was southerly,and the shifts of cold air and influence system were quicker.Therefore,the cold wave appeared in Dalian's south areas which included Lvshun,Dalian and Jinzhou.On this basis,the key point of cold wave weather forecast in Dalian area was summarized.

Influence of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming on the Unprecedented Cold Wave in East Asia in January 2021

An unprecedented cold wave intruded into East Asia in early January 2021 and led to record-breaking or historical extreme low temperatures over vast regions.This study shows that a major stratospheric sudden warming(SSW)event at the beginning of January 2021 exerted an important influence on this cold wave.The major SSW event occurred on 2 January 2021 and subsequently led to the displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex to the East Asian side.Moreover,the SSW event induced the stratospheric warming signal to propagate downward to the mid-to-lower troposphere,which not only enhanced the blocking in the Urals-Siberia region and the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation,but also shifted the tropospheric polar vortex off the pole.The displaced tropospheric polar vortex,Ural blocking,and another downstream blocking ridge over western North America formed a distinct inverted omega-shaped circulation pattern(IOCP)in the East Asia-North Pacific sector.This IOCP was the most direct and impactful atmospheric pattern causing the cold wave in East Asia.The IOCP triggered a meridional cell with an upward branch in East Asia and a downward branch in Siberia.The meridional cell intensified the Siberian high and low-level northerly winds,which also favored the invasion of the cold wave into East Asia.Hence,the SSW event and tropospheric circulations such as the IOCP,negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,Ural blocking,enhanced Siberian high,and eastward propagation of Rossby wave eventually induced the outbreak of an unprecedented cold wave in East Asia in early January 2021.

On the Two Successive Supercold Waves Straddling the End of 2020 and the Beginning of 2021

Two supercold waves straddling 2020 and 2021 successively hit China and caused record-breaking extremely low temperatures.In this study,the distinct features of these two supercold waves are analyzed on the medium-range time scale.The blocking pattern from the Kara Sea to Lake Baikal characterized the first cold wave,while the large-scale tilted ridge and trough over the Asian continent featured the second cold wave.Prior to the cold waves,both the northwest and hyperpolar paths of cold air contributed to a zonally extensive cold air accumulation in the key region of Siberia.This might be the primary reason why strong and extensive supercold waves occur even under the Arctic amplification background.The two cold waves straddling 2020 and 2021 exhibited distinct features:(1)the blocking circulation occurred to the north or the east of the Ural Mountains and was not confined only to the Ural Mountains as it was for the earlier cold waves;(2)the collocation of the Asian blocking pattern and the polar vortex deflection towards East Asia preferred the hyperpolar path of cold air accumulation and the subsequent southward outburst;and(3)both high-and low-frequency processes worked in concert,leading to the very intense cold waves.The cold air advance along the northwest path,which coincides with the southeastward intrusion of the Siberian High(SH)front edge,is associated with the high-frequency process,while the cold air movement along the hyperpolar path,which is close to the eastern edge of the SH,is controlled by the low-frequency process.

Analysis on the Temporal and Spatial Characteristics and Causes of Cold Wave in Qinhuangdao

[Objective] The aim was to study the temporal and spatial characteristics and causes of cold wave in Qinhuangdao.[Method] Based on temperature data from five surface meteorological stations in Qinhuangdao from 1970 to 2009 and the latest standards issuing cold wave early warning signal,statistical analysis on the temporal and spatial distribution of cold wave was carried out,and the causes were discussed preliminarily.[Result] From 1970 to 2009,the frequencies of blue and yellow cold wave in Qinhuangdao region were 2 334 and 105 times respectively,and cold wave occurred most frequently in Qinglong County and least frequently in Lulong County,which was related to the effects of underlying surface,latitude and altitude.Cold wave might happen from September to next May,and the earliest occurrence date was September 9,while the latest end date was May 26.In addition,the frequency of cold wave was the highest in January and lowest in May.From 1970 to 2009,blue cold wave occurred most frequently in 1972 and 1979 and least frequently in 1984,while the frequency of yellow cold wave was the highest in 1979 and lowest in 9 years.From decadal variation,cold wave appeared most frequently in the 1970s and least frequently in the 1990s.With the increase of temperature,the frequency of cold wave showed decrease trend,and the beginning date tended to postpone,while its end date advanced,and it showed that the changes of cold wave was mainly caused by climate warming.[Conclusion] The study could provide theoretical guidance for the meteorological disaster prevention and reduction and local agricultural service.

Analysis of a Cold Wave Weather Process in Chengdu in March 2010

[Objective] The aim was to analyze one cold wave weather process in Chengdu in March in 2010.[Method] Based on the NCEP 1°×1° 6 h interval reanalysis data and daily observation data,using synoptic analysis and diagnosis methods,and combining with the cold wave forecast index in spring of Sichuan,a cold wave event covering the whole region between March 21 and 24,2010 was analyzed from the aspects of circulation background,influencing weather systems and weather causation.[Result] Results showed that the 500 high-altitude cold vortex,700-850 hPa low layer shear,and ground cold front were the main systems that influenced this cold wave;there was a ridge from Lake Balkhash across Lake Baikal at 500 hPa.The early stage of the process was controlled by the high pressure ridge and the temperature was increasing obviously.The daily mean temperature was high.The range of cold high pressure was large and the central intensity was 1 043.0 hPa;the cold air was strong and deep which was in accordance with the strong surface temperature reduction center.The strong north airstream of Lake Balkhash to Lake Baikal,ground cold high pressure center intensity changes,north and south ocean pressure and temperature differences,850 hPa temperature changes,cold advection movement route and intensity were considered as reference factors for the forecast of cold wave intensity.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for improving the forecast ability of cold wave weather.

The Leading Mode of Wintertime Cold Wave Frequency in Northern China during the Last 42 Years and Its Association with Arctic Oscillation

This study examined wintertime (November-April) cold wave frequency (CWF) in northern China during the last 42 years and its association with Arctic Oscillation (AO) through analysis of daily mean surface temperature from 280 stations across northern China and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-Year Re-analysis ERA-40 data. The leading empirical orthogonal function EOF mode of wintertime CWF (CWF-EOF1) indicates an identical signal over most northern China, with the characteristic trend of linear decline for the leading principal component (CWF-PC1). After the linear trend is removed, remarkable inter-annual variability is found to be the dominant feature of the CWF-PC1. The regression map for sea level pressure based on CWF-PC1 corresponds to the negative phase of AO. Correlation analysis further proves that CWF-PC1 has a significant negative correlation with AO at the inter-annual time scale. The relationship between AO and global surface air temperature is also investigated in order to understand its association with cold air activity over East Asia, and it is suggested that the anomalies of atmospheric circulation in Siberia may serve as a bridge for interaction between AO and CWF in northern China during wintertime.

Temperature gradients in concrete box girder bridge under effect of cold wave

The temperature distributions of a prestressed concrete box girder bridge under the effect of cold wave processes were analyzed. The distributions were found different from those under the effect of solar radiation or nighttime radiation cooling and should not be simplified as one dimensional. A temperature predicting model that can accurately predict temperatures over the cross section of the concrete box girder was developed. On the basis of the analytical model, a two-dimensional temperature gradient model was proposed and a parametric study that considered meteorological factors was performed. The results of sensitivity analysis show that the cold wave with shorter duration and more severe temperature drop may cause more unfavorable influences on the concrete box girder bridge. Finally, the unrestrained linear curvatures, self-equilibrating stresses and bending stresses when considering the frame action of the cross section, were derived from the proposed temperature gradient model and current code provisions, respectively. Then, a comparison was made between the value calculated against proposed model and several current specifications. The results show that the cold wave may cause more unfavorable effect on the concrete box girder bridge, especially on the large concrete box girder bridge. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the thermal effect caused by cold wave during the design stage.

Study on the growth of wind wave frequency spectra generated by cold waves in the northern East China Sea

The growth of frequency spectra and spectral parameters of wind waves generated by cold waves, a kind of severe weather system, in the northern East China Sea is studied in this paper. Based on a third-generation wave action model(the Simulating WAves Nearshore model), simulations were developed to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of wind waves and to output spectral data. It is shown that the cold wave-induced spectra can be well described by the modified Joint North Sea Wave Project spectral form. The growth of wave spectra is comprehensively reflected by the evolution of the three characteristic parameters: peak frequency, spectral peak and wave energy. Besides, the approximations of dependences between spectral parameters and the three types of universal induced factors are obtained with the least squares method and compared systematically. Fetch and peak frequency turn out to be suitable parameters to describe the spectral parameters, while the dependences on the inverse wave age vary in different sea areas. In general, the derived relationships improve on results from previous studies for better practical application of the wind wave frequency spectrum in the northern East China Sea.

Maintenance and development of the Ural high and its contribution to severe cold wave activities in winter 2020/21

Two successive severe cold waves invaded eastern China from the end of 2020 to early 2021,leading to an extensive,severe,and persistent drop in temperature.The paper investigates the features and formation mechanisms of the two cold waves.The main results are as follows:(1)An anticlockwise turning of the transverse trough was observed in both cold waves.However,a broad ridge was maintained over the Ural area from mid-December 2020 till mid-January 2021.No breakdown or discontinuous westward shift of the blocking high was observed,which is different from typical cold waves in eastern Asia.(2)The maintenance and strengthening of northerly winds in front of the Ural high led to an increase in baroclinicity in-situ.In the downstream region,the gradient of the geopotential height contour in the south of the transverse trough rapidly increased and the advection of cold temperature consistently enhanced and advanced southwards.This in turn caused the intensification and southward expansion of the Siberian high.(3)Energy propagation of the quasi-stationary wave was a reason for the development and persistence of the Ural blocking.Prior to the occurrence of the two cold waves,the energy of the low-frequency stationary wave originating from near 0°E(or even to the west)propagated eastwards,which helped the Ural ridge intensify and maintain.Meanwhile,it also contributed to the development of the trough downstream of the ridge and resulted in the anticlockwise turning of the transverse trough,providing a favorable condition for the southward outbreak of cold air.

Analysis of a Cold Wave Process in Jiujiang and Its Numerical Model Forecast

The cold wave weather process in Jiujiang in the early spring of February 2020 was analyzed.The results show that the establishment of blocking high near Lake Baikal and the rapid southward of cold air after accumulation resulted in the cold wave weather accompanied by strong cooling,hale and rain(snow)weather in Jiujiang.Before the cold wave broke out,the ground warmed up significantly,which was also one of thermal conditions for this cold wave weather.Water vapor conditions were abundant at middle and low levels;at 850 hPa,temperature dropped by 12-14℃during February 14-15,and-4℃isotherm appeared in the southern part of central Jiangxi,which is a favorable condition for rain(snow)in most areas of Jiujiang.

Study on Cold Wave Weather in Hexi Corridor from March 12 to 14 in 2011

[ Objectivel The aim was to study the cold wave in Hexi Corridor in 2011 and to summarize report experience. [ Method] Routine obser- vation data and Ecmwf numerical product were used to analyze the circulation background, causes and influential system of Hexi Corridor from March 12 to 14 in 2011. [Result] The cold wave in the mid-high latitude circulation in Northern hemisphere transited from radial type to warp type. High early basic temperature was the premise of cold wave. Drastic ground movement was the direct cause of cold wave. Prevailing cold advection was one primary cause of temperature reduction. Radiation in sunny days also posed certain influences on regional temperature. Factors weakened the gale were as follow, cold air largely in north area, cold air moving southeastward in diffusion, front passing early, upper and lower air conver- gence against the convection development and slow wind in high and lower air. [ Conclusion] The study provided important references for further enhancement of cold wave and gale report.

Analysis on a Cold Wave Weather Process in Winter in Gansu

[Objective]The research aimed to analyze a cold wave weather process in winter in Gansu.[Method] Based on routine observation data and numerical forecast products,formation reason and physical quantity characteristics of a cold wave process during 2-5 December,2008 were comprehensively analyzed by synoptic analysis and diagnostic analysis methods.[Result]The cold wave weather belonged to ' translot turning vertical type'.Collapse of the Urals ridge,turning vertical of the translot and strengthening south of the ground cold high induced the cold wave.Development of the Siberian low vortex drove the small branch of cold air in polar region supplementing south,playing certain promoting role in outbreak of the cold wave.Physical quantities in the cold wave process also had very good expression,such as vorticity,temperature advection,etc.[Conclusion]This research had important indication effect for early warning,forecast and decision service of the future similar weather process.

Analysis of a Turning Cold Wave in Northern Xinjiang in Winter

Based on analyzing the circulation development of 100 hPa, 500 hPa, lower streamline field and the change of physical vadables, the diagnostic analysis of a turning cold wave process in northern Xinjiang from Feb. 10 -13th 2009 was carried out. The results showed that abnormality of 100 hPa polar vortex taking on stable two waves, catastrophe of 500 hPa western Siberian trough, strong cold advection and water vapor transport from Middle Asia are chief reasons of the process.

Analysis of a Cold Wave Weather Process of China from December 23rd to 26th, 2021

Cold wave weather process is a large-scale strong cold air activity process, will bring drastic cooling and wind, as well as rain and snow weather. This research mainly studies the evolution and cause of a cold wave weather process of China from December 23rd to 26th, 2021. The weather map from the National Climate Center and the geopotential height and sea level pressure reanalysis data from December 23rd to 26th, 2021 provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction of United States are analyzed by the comparative analysis method and the high altitude situation forecast equation. As a result, this research found that this cold wave was considered a nationwide process. Besides, this cold wave process was mainly caused by the invasion of cold air from Siberia. In addition, under the joint action of the warm high pressure ridge in the Ural Mountains, the polar vortex split and presented a multi-polar distribution. One of them was located near West Siberia, which was conducive to the accumulation of cold air here. With the rotation of the transverse trough, cold air moved southward, and cold wave broke out.

Cold wave caused power supply reducing and rationing

Because of the amalgamation of coal resourcesin Shanxi Province in 2009, coal production centermoved westward in China. The coal outputs of InnerMongolia and Shaanxi got higher. From January

Cold Wave Climate Characteristics and Risk Zoning in Jilin Province

Using the meteorological data of 50 stations in Jilin Province from 1961 to 2016, the demographic and economic data, and geographical information of all counties and cities aims to conduct the risk zoning of cold wave disasters in Jilin Province. The results show that, since 1961, the average number of cold wave occurrences per year in Jilin Province is 8.3 days, of which the highest number of occurrences occurred in February, followed by December and January, and the spring cold wave occurred mostly in March. From the map of cold-sea disaster risk zoning in Jilin Province, due to factors such as topography and land use distribution, the west and east of Jilin Province have a certain resilience to the disasters caused by cold waves, and the risk of disasters is low. The distribution of agricultural facilities and large areas of farmland in the central region are extremely sensitive to cold wave disasters and have a high risk of disasters. Areas with high risk of cold wave are mainly concentrated in Siping City, Changchun City, Liaoyuan City, Jilin City, northern Tonghua City and most of Baishan City. Areas with low cold wave risk are mainly concentrated in most of Baicheng City, most of Songyuan City and Yanbian Prefecture. And other places are moderately risky areas of cold waves.