Forecasting China’s natural gas consumption based on a combination model

Ensuring a sufficient energy supply is essential to a country. Natural gas constitutes a vital part in energy supply and therefore forecasting natural gas consumption reliably and accurately is an essential part of a country＇s energy policy. Over the years, studies have shown that a combinative model gives better projected results compared to a single model. In this study, we used Polynomial Curve and Moving Average Combination Projection （PCMACP） model to estimate the future natural gas consumption in China from 2009 to 2015. The new proposed PCMACP model shows more reliable and accurate results： its Mean Absolute Percentage Error （MAPE） is less than those of any previous models within the investigated range. According to the PCMACP model, the average annual growth rate will increase for the next 7 years and the amount of natural gas consumption will reach 171600 million cubic meters in 2015 in China.

Settlement Prediction of Dredger Fill with the Optimal Combination Model

Post-construction settlement has gained increasing attention because it frequently causes engineering problems. A combined model is a commonly used prediction model that overcomes the difficulty of a single model( i. e., cannot reflect various regulations of settlement at some stages or the entire process). In this study,the correlation coefficient,maximum error values,and other values were obtained according to the fitting and predicted results of a single model. The coefficient of variation was then introduced to determine the weight of each model forming the combination. The proposed model was used to fit and predict for settlement and overcome the issue of utilizing a single model while determining the weight. The fitting predictive effect was also analyzed using the settlement fitting precision results. The fitting precision of optimizing the combination model is high. The predicted data of the post-construction settlement are closer to the calculated value of the settlement monitoring data. Moreover,the proposed model has good practicability,does not require the interval data of settlement,and restricts the model number. Thus,this model can be applied in the engineering field.

Quantitative analysis of glutamate compounds in the swine brain following central analgesics nasal spray using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy and linear combination model

BACKGROUND： In localized brain proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy （^1H-MRS）, metabolite levels are often expressed as ratios, rather than absolute concentrations. Frequently, the denominator is creatine, which is assumed to be stable in normal, as well as many pathological, states. However, in vivo creatine levels do not remain constant. Therefore, absolute metabolite measurements, which provide the precise concentrations of certain chemical compounds, are superior to metabolite ratios for determining pathological and evolutional changes. OBJECTIVE： To investigate the feasibility of quantification analysis of brain metabolite changes caused by central analgesics nasal spray using the ^1H-MRS and linear combination model （LCModel） methods. DESIGN, TIME AND SETTING： This neuroimaging, observational, animal study was performed at the Laboratory of the Department of Medical Imaging, Second Affiliated Hospital, Medical College, Shantou University, China from July to December 2007. MATERIALS： Butorphanol tartrate nasal spray, as a mixed agonist-antagonist opioid analgesic, was purchased from Shanghai Hengrui Pharmacy, China. A General Electric Signa 1.5T System （General Electric Medical Systems, Milwaukee, WI, USA） and LCModel software （Stephen Provencher, Oakville, Ontario, Canada） were used in this study. METHODS： MRS images were acquired in ten healthy swine aged 2 weeks using single-voxel point-resolved spectroscopic sequence. A region of interest （2 cm × 2 cm × 2 cm） was placed in the image centers of maximum brain parenchyma. Repeated MRS scanning was performed 15-20 minutes after intranasal administration of 1 mg of butorphanol tartrate. Three settings of repetition time/echo time were selected before and after nasal spray administration 3 000 ms/30 ms,1 500 ms/30 ms, and 3 000 ms/50 ms. Metabolite concentrations were estimated by LCModel software. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES： ^1H-MRS spectra was obtained using various repetition time/echo time settings. Concentrations of glutamate compounds （glutamate ＋ glutamine）, N-acetyl aspartate, and choline were detected in swine brain prior to and following nasal spray treatment. RESULTS： The glutamate compounds curve was consistent with original spectra, when a repetition time/echo time of 3 000 ms/30 ms was adopted. Concentrations of glutamate compounds, N-acetyl aspartate, and choline decreased following administration. The most significant reduction was observed in glutamate compound concentrations from （9.28 ± 0.54） mmol/kg to （7.28 ± 0.54） mmol/kg （P 〈 0.05）. CONCLUSION： ^1H-MRS and LCModel software were effectively utilized to quantitatively analyze and measure brain metabolites. Glutamate compounds might be an important neurotransmitter in central analgesia.

Education Knowledge System Combination Model Based on the Components

Resources are the base and core of education information, but current web education resources have no structure and it is still difficult to reuse them and make them can be self assembled and developed continually. According to the knowledge structure of course and text, the relation among knowledge points, knowledge units from three levels of media material, we can build education resource components, and build TKCM （Teaching Knowledge Combination Model） based on resource components. Builders can build and assemble knowledge system structure and make knowledge units can be self assembled, thus we can develop and consummate them continually. Users can make knowledge units can be self assembled and renewed, and build education knowledge system to satisfy users＇ demand under the form of education knowledge system.

Statistical method in quark combination model

We present a new method for solving the probability distribution for baryons,antibaryons,and mesons at the hadronization of the constituent quark and antiquark system.The hadronization is governed by the quark combination rule in the quark combination model developed by the Shandong Group.We employ the method of the generating function to derive the outcome of the quark combination rule,which is significantly simpler and easier to generalize than the original method.Furthermore,we use the formula of the quark combination rule and its generalization to study the property of the multiplicity distribution of net-protons.Taking a naive case of quark number fluctuations and correlations at hadronization,we calculate ratios of multiplicity cumulants of final-state net-protons and discuss the potential applicability of the quark combination model by studying hadronic multiplicity fluctuations and the underlying phase transition property in relativistic heavy-ion collisions.

Combined hybrid energy storage system and transmission grid model for peak shaving based on time series operation simulation

This study proposes a combined hybrid energy storage system(HESS) and transmission grid(TG) model, and a corresponding time series operation simulation(TSOS) model is established to relieve the peak-shaving pressure of power systems under the integration of renewable energy. First, a linear model for the optimal operation of the HESS is established, which considers the different power-efficiency characteristics of the pumped storage system, electrochemical storage system, and a new type of liquid compressed air energy storage. Second, a TSOS simulation model for peak shaving is built to maximize the power entering the grid from the wind farms and HESS. Based on the proposed model, this study considers the transmission capacity of a TG. By adding the power-flow constraints of the TG, a TSOS-based HESS and TG combination model for peak shaving is established. Finally, the improved IEEE-39 and IEEE-118 bus systems were considered as examples to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.

Predicting Surface Urban Heat Island in Meihekou City, China: A Combination Method of Monte Carlo and Random Forest

Given the rapid urbanization worldwide, Urban Heat Island(UHI) effect has been a severe issue limiting urban sustainability in both large and small cities. In order to study the spatial pattern of Surface urban heat island(SUHI) in China’s Meihekou City, a combination method of Monte Carlo and Random Forest Regression(MC-RFR) is developed to construct the relationship between landscape pattern indices and Land Surface Temperature(LST). In this method, Monte Carlo acceptance-rejection sampling was added to the bootstrap layer of RFR to ensure the sensitivity of RFR to outliners of SUHI effect. The SHUI in 2030 was predicted by using this MC-RFR and the modeled future landscape pattern by Cellular Automata and Markov combination model(CA-Markov). Results reveal that forestland can greatly alleviate the impact of SUHI effect, while reasonable construction of urban land can also slow down the rising trend of SUHI. MC-RFR performs better for characterizing the relationship between landscape pattern and LST than single RFR or Linear Regression model. By 2030, the overall SUHI effect of Meihekou will be greatly enhanced, and the center of urban development will gradually shift to the central and western regions of the city. We suggest that urban designer and managers should concentrate vegetation and disperse built-up land to weaken the SUHI in the construction of new urban areas for its sustainability.

Combined model based on optimized multi-variable grey model and multiple linear regression

The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model （MGM（1,m）） from its source of construction errors. The MGM（1,m） with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables, and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model. Finally, a combined model of the MGM（1,2） with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example. The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.

A combined numerical tidal model for the Hangzhou Bay and Qiantang River

-In order to avoid prescribing open boundary condition on the upstream side of the Hangzhou Bay, in numerical simulation of the tides and residual currents of the Bay, a 1-D model for the Qiantang River is connected to the 2-D model for the Hangzhou Bay. The harmonic constants of diurnal constituent [ (K1+O1)/2],semidiurnal constituent (M2) and shallow water constituent (M4) are obtained. The results produced by the combined model are in better agreement with the observed ones than those produced solely by the original 2-D model. The combined model gives much more reliable results for tide-induced residual water level and current.

Study of establishing disease-syndrome combined with animal model for immune thrombocytopenic purpura without additional conditions

Objective:To explore the feasibility of establishing the disease-syndrome combined animal model for immune thrombocytopenic purpura(ITP)without additional conditions.Methods:Three batches of data related to the ITP model mice obtained by replication at different time were analyzed,and whether the APS-injected model mice replicated through the passive immune modeling method could simulate the pathogenesis and clinical characteristics of human ITP was evaluated according to the differentiation criteria for diseasesyndrome combined model.Results:The APS-injected replicated ITP model mice possessed the following traits:(1)Compared with the normal group,the platelet count was significantly decreased,and coagulation time was significantly increased in the model group(P<.01).(2)Compared with the normal group,the medullary thrombocytogenous megakaryocytes were significantly decreased(P<.05,.01,.001).(3)The APS-injected sites and other parts of the model mice had spontaneous hemorrhage.(4)Behavioral changing signs were observed 1 week after the modeling(i.e.low activity,delayed activity,poor appetite,skin petechia/hemorrhage and spontaneous hemorrhage at the injected sites or other parts),and were getting more and more severe.Conclusion:According to the syndrome differentiation criteria for disease-syndrome combined model of ITP,the APS-injected animal model of ITP replicated through the passive immune modeling method without additional conditions possesses the characteristics of disease-syndrome combined model.It provides an ideal tool for the development of traditional Chinese medicine pharmacology experiment.

A COMBINED MODEL OF WIND, WAVE, TIDE AND STORM SURGES

A combined numerical model of wind, wave, tide, and storm surges was built on the basis of the “wind field model in limited sea surface areas”. When used to forecast the sea surface wind, wave height and water level, it can describe them very well.

ARMA-GM combined forewarning model for the quality control

Three forecasting models are set up: the auto\|regressive moving average model, the grey forecasting model for the rate of qualified products P t, and the grey forecasting model for time intervals of the quality catastrophes. Then a combined forewarning system for the quality of products is established, which contains three models, judgment rules and forewarning state illustration. Finally with an example of the practical production, this modeling system is proved fairly effective.

Combined bottleneck effect of on-ramp and bus stop in a cellular automaton model

The combined bottleneck effect is investigated by modeling traffic systems with an on-ramp and a nearby bus stop in a two-lane cellular automaton model. Two cases, i.e. the bus stop locates in the downstream section of the on-ramp and the bus stop locates in the upstream section of the on-ramp, are considered separately. The upstream flux and downstream flux of the main road, as well as the on-ramp flux are analysed in detail, with respect to the entering probabilities and the distance between the on-ramp and the bus stop. It is found that the combination of the two bottlenecks causes the capacity to drop off, because the vehicles entering the main road from the on-ramp would interweave with the stopping （pulling-out） buses in the downstream （upstream） case. The traffic conflict in the former case is much heavier than that in the latter, causing the downstream main road to be utilized inefficiently. This suggests that the bus stop should be set in the upstream section of the on-ramp to enhance the capacity. The fluxes both on the main road and on the on-ramp vary with the distance between the two bottlenecks in both cases. However, the effects of distance disappear gradually at large distances. These findings might give some guidance to traffic optimization and management.

Application of BIM Technology in Rapid Modeling of Residential Building Design

Combining with engineering examples,this paper introduces BIM into architectural design model and adopts Revit rapid modeling.It focuses on realizing rapid combination modeling of similar components through secondary development,improving information conversion efficiency between engineering CAD and Revit building structure modeling,and quickly generating BIM structure construction drawings.

Effects of ginsenoside of stem and leaf combined with choline on learning and memory ability of rat models with Alzheimer diseases

BACKGROUND： Central adrenergic nerve and 5-serotonergic nerve can influence central cholinergic nerve on learning and memory and make easy for study; however, ginsenoside of stem and leaf （GSL） can improve functions of central adrenergic nerve; moreover, 5-serotonergic nerve and the combination with choline can produce synergistic effect and enhance learning and memory ability so as to improve learning and memory disorder of patients with Alzheimer disease （AD）. OBJECTIVE ： To observe the effects of GSL combining with choline on learning and memory of AD model rats DESIGN ： Randomized grouping design and controlled animal study SETIING ： Department of Pharmacology, Taishan Medical College MATERIALS ： The experiment was carried out in the Pharmacological Department of Medical College of Jilin University from October 1996 to January 1997. Forty healthy male Wistar rats of clean grade were randomly divided into 5 groups, including sham-injury group, model group, GSL group, choline group and combination group, with 8 rats in each group. Main medications： GSL with the volume more than 92.8% was provided by Department of Chemistry, Norman Bethune Medical College of Jilin University. Panaxatriol, the main component, was detected with thin layer scanning technique and regarded as the index of GSL quality [（55±1）%, CV= 2%, n = 5]. Choline was provided by the Third Shanghai Laboratory Factory. METHODS ： 150 nmol quinolinic acid was used to damage bilateral Meynert basal nuclei of adult rats so as to establish AD models. Rats in GSL, choline and combination groups were intragastric administrated with 400 mg/kg GSL, 200 mg/kg choline （20 mL/kg）, and both respectively last for 17 days starting from two days before operation. Rats in sham-injury group and model group were perfused with the same volume of distilled water once in each morning for the same days. （1） Passive avoidance step-down test： Five minutes later, rats jumped up safe platform when they were shocked with 36 V alternating current. If rats jumped down from the platform and the feet touched railings, the response was wrong. Numbers of wrong response were recorded within 3 minutes, and then the test was redone after 24 hours. （2） Morris water-maze spatial localization task： Swimming from jumping-off to platform directly was regarded as right response. Additionally, 4 successively right responses were regarded as the standard. Each rat was trained 10 times a day with 120 s per time for 3 successive days. The interval was 30 s. Three days later, numbers of right response were recorded. The training times were increased to 30 for unlearned rats. （3） Measurement of activity of choline acetylase in cerebral cortex： Rats were sacrificed at 17 days after operation to obtain cerebral cortex to measure activity of choline acetylase with radiochemistry technique. （4） Synergistic effect： It was expressed as Q value： Q value = factual incorporative effect/anticipant incorporative effect; Q ≥ 1 was regarded as synergistic effect. Anticipant incorporative effect = （EA＋EB-EA·EB）, EA and EB were single timing effect, respectively in GSL group and choline group. E（step-down test and Morris water maze test） = （x in model group - factual value in medicine groups）/x in model group; E （activity of choline acetylase） = （factual value in medicine groups -xin model group）/xin model group. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES ： （1） Passive avoidance step-down test and Morris water-maze spatial localization task in the study of learning and memory; （2） activity of choline acetylase. RESULTS ： All 40 rats were involved in the final analysis. （1） Passive avoidance response： At learning phase on first day and retesting phase on the next day, numbers of wrong responses within 3 minutes were more in model group than sham operation group, and there was significant difference [（5.88±1.46）, （2.25±0.87） times; （2.63±1.06）, （0.50±0.53） times; P 〈 0.01]; numbers of wrong responses within 3 minutes were less in combination group than model group, and there was significant difference [learning phase： （1.12±0.83）, （5.88±1.46） times; retesting phase： （0.38±0.74）, （2.63±1.06）times, P 〈 0.01]; moreover, effect was stronger than that in GSL group and choline group. The Q value was 1.07 and 1.59, respectively and it showed synergistic effect. Spatial localization task： Training times were more in model group than sham operation group, and there was significant difference [（2.9±2.5）, （12.6±3.5） times; P 〈 0.01]. Training times were less in combination group than model group, and there was significant difference [（11.8±2.4）, （27.9±2.5） times, P 〈 0.01]; moreover, effect was stronger than that in GSL group and choline group. The Q value was 1.07 and it showed synergistic effect. （3） Activity of choline acetylase： Activity was lower in model group than sham operation group, and there was significant difference [（30.56±8.33）, （61.11 ±8.33） nkat/g; P 〈 0.01]. Activity was higher in combination group than model group and there was significant difference [（50.00±8.33）, （30.56±8.33） nkat/g, P 〈 0.01];moreover, effect was stronger than that in GSL group and choline group. The Q value was 1.5 and it showed synergistic effect. CONCLUSZON： GSL in combination with choline can synergically improve the disorder of learning and memory of AD model rats. Its mechanism may be involved in enhancing the function of central cholinergic system.

Combined refraction and diffraction models for sea waves over complicated topography and with currents in shallow water

-Combined refraction and diffraction models in the form of linear parabolic approximation are derived through smallparameter method. More strictly theoretical basis and more accuracy in the models than Lozano's (1980) are obtained. Some theoretical defects in Liu's model (1985) with consideration of current are not only found but also eliminated. More strict and accurate models are, therefore, presented in this paper.The calculation results and analysis in applying the models to actual wave field with consideration of bottom friction will be given in the following paper.

Designing a High-Performance Deep Learning Theoretical Model for Biomedical Image Segmentation by Using Key Elements of the Latest U-Net-Based Architectures

Deep learning (DL) has experienced an exponential development in recent years, with major impact in many medical fields, especially in the field of medical image and, respectively, as a specific task, in the segmentation of the medical image. We aim to create a computer assisted diagnostic method, optimized by the use of deep learning (DL) and validated by a randomized controlled clinical trial, is a highly automated tool for diagnosing and staging precancerous and cervical cancer and thyroid cancers. We aim to design a high-performance deep learning model, combined from convolutional neural network (U-Net)-based architectures, for segmentation of the medical image that is independent of the type of organs/tissues, dimensions or type of image (2D/3D) and to validate the DL model in a randomized, controlled clinical trial. We used as a methodology primarily the analysis of U-Net-based architectures to identify the key elements that we considered important in the design and optimization of the combined DL model, from the U-Net-based architectures, imagined by us. Secondly, we will validate the performance of the DL model through a randomized controlled clinical trial. The DL model designed by us will be a highly automated tool for diagnosing and staging precancers and cervical cancer and thyroid cancers. The combined model we designed takes into account the key features of each of the architectures Overcomplete Convolutional Network Kite-Net (Kite-Net), Attention gate mechanism is an improvement added on convolutional network architecture for fast and precise segmentation of images (Attention U-Net), Harmony Densely Connected Network-Medical image Segmentation (HarDNet-MSEG). In this regard, we will create a comprehensive computer assisted diagnostic methodology validated by a randomized controlled clinical trial. The model will be a highly automated tool for diagnosing and staging precancers and cervical cancer and thyroid cancers. This would help drastically minimize the time and effort that specialists put into analyzing medical images, help to achieve a better therapeutic plan, and can provide a “second opinion” of computer assisted diagnosis.

A new hybrid method with data‑characteristic‑driven analysis for artificial intelligence and robotics index return forecasting

Forecasting returns for the Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Index is of great significance for financial market stability,and the development of the artificial intelligence industry.To provide investors with a more reliable reference in terms of artificial intelligence index investment,this paper selects the NASDAQ CTA Artificial Intelligence and Robotics(AIRO)Index as the research target,and proposes innovative hybrid methods to forecast returns by considering its multiple structural characteristics.Specifically,this paper uses the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method and the modified iterative cumulative sum of squares(ICSS)algorithm to decompose the index returns and identify the structural breakpoints.Furthermore,it combines the least-square support vector machine approach with the particle swarm optimization method(PSO-LSSVM)and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH)type models to construct innovative hybrid forecasting methods.On the one hand,the empirical results indicate that the AIRO index returns have complex structural characteristics,and present time-varying and nonlinear characteristics with high complexity and mutability;on the other hand,the newly proposed hybrid forecasting method(i.e.,the EEMD-PSO-LSSVM-ICSS-GARCH models)which considers these complex structural characteristics,can yield the optimal forecasting performance for the AIRO index returns.

山东省中医类医院卫生人力资源需求预测

目的了解山东省中医类医院卫生人力资源的现状,预测卫生人力资源未来的需求量并提出合理建议,以期为相关部门制定中医药人力资源规划提供依据和数据支持。方法运用差分自回归移动平均(auto-regressive moving average,ARIMA)模型、灰色系统预测模型(grey system forecasting model,GM)中的GM(1,1)模型以及两者的线性组合模型预测2021—2025年山东省中医类医院卫生人力资源需求量,比较不同模型预测的精准度。结果组合模型的系统误差小,预测效果最好;卫生技术人员、执业(助理)医师、中医类别执业(助理)医师、注册护士、药师(士)及中药师(士)2025年对应的人力资源预测值分别是107457人、43304人、22807人、51372人、5718人、3242人。结论山东省中医类别执业(助理)医师数量储备充足,但中药师(士)相对短缺,人才结构不合理,医护比有待优化。建议政府适当地增加中药师(士)的编制,促进执业(助理)医师与中药师(士)平衡发展;增加对中医类医院的财政拨款,加强人才引进力度,创新人才培养机制,优化山东省中医药人才结构;制定科学合理的排班制度,提高护士的社会地位,进一步优化医护比。

Evaluation of the Application Effect of Short Video Combined with BOPPPS Teaching Mode in Clinical Anesthesia Teaching

Objective:To study the application effect of short video combined with BOPPPS teaching mode in clinical anesthesia practice.Method:48 students assigned to clinical anesthesia in digestive endoscopy of Shanxi Bethune Hospital from July 1,2022 to April 1,2023 were selected as research objects.They were randomly divided into the control group(PowerPoint presentation teaching group)and the observation group(short video combined with BOPPPS teaching group),with 24 students in each group.After the internship,the students’theoretical and technical scores were tested,the effects of the two teaching modes were compared,and the students’satisfaction was investigated.Results:The test scores of students in the observation group were significantly better than those in the control group(P<0.05).The short video combined with BOPPPS teaching mode can significantly improve students’learning interest,operation skills,and memory(P<0.05).The students’satisfaction in the observation group was higher than that in the control group(P<0.05).Conclusion:In clinical practice,the application of short video combined with BOPPPS teaching mode has achieved great effect,which is worth further promotion and research.