Combined estimation for multi-measurements of branching ratio

A maximum likelihood method is used to deal with the combined estimation of multi-measurements of a branching ratio, where each result can be presented as an upper limit. The joint likelihood function is constructed using observed spectra of all measurements and the combined estimate of the branching ratio is obtained by maxi- mizing the joint likelihood function. The Bayesian credible interval or upper limit of the combined branching ratio, is given in cases both with and without inclusion of systematic error.

Analysis of Commuting Modal Shift in Consideration of Social Interaction of Consciousness for Environment

It is the matter for achievement of the low carbon transport system that the excessive use of private vehicles can be controlled appropriately.Not only improvement of service level of modes except private vehicle,but also consciousness for environmental problem of individual trip maker is important for eco-commuting promotion.On the other hand,consciousness for environment would be changed by influence of other person.Accordingly,it is aimed in the study that the structure of decision-making process for modal shift to the eco-commuting mode in the local city is described considering environmental consciousness and social interaction.For the purpose,the consciousness for the environment problem and the travel behavior of the commuter at the suburban area in the local city are investigated by the questionnaire survey.The covariance structure about the eco-consciousness is analyzed with the database of the questionnaire survey by structural equation modeling.As the result,it can be confirmed with the structural equation model that the individual environmental consciousness is strongly related with the intention of self-sacrifice and is influenced with the local interaction of the individual connections.On the other hand,the intention of modal shift for the commuting mode is analyzed with the database of the questionnaire survey.It can be found out that the environmental consciousness is not statistically significant for commuting mode choice with the present poor level of service of public transport.However,the intention of self-sacrifice for the prevention of the global warming is statistically confirmed as the factor of modal shift with the operation of eco-commuting bus service with the RP/SP integrated estimation method.As the result,the multi-agent simulation system with social interaction model for eco consciousness is developed to measure the effect of the eco-commuting promotion.For the purpose,the carbon dioxide emission is estimated based on traffic demand and road network condition in the traffic environment model.On the other hand,the relation between agents is defined based on the small world network.The proposed multi-agent simulation is applied to measure the effect of the eco-commuting promotion such as improvement of level of service on the public transport or education of eco-consciousness.The effect of the promotion plan can be observed with the proposed multi-agent system.Finally,it can be concluded that the proposed multi-agent simulation with social interaction for eco-consciousness is useful for planning of eco-commuting promotion.

A Generalized Wind Turbine Anomaly Detection Method Based on Combined Probability Estimation Model

Anomaly detection based on the data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition(SCADA)system is crucial to reduce the failure rate of wind turbines(WTs).The difficulty of this kind of methods is to dynamically identify the threshold for anomaly detection under changing operating conditions.In this paper,a generalized WT anomaly detection method based on the combined probability estimation model(CPEM)is proposed.The CPEM can estimate the conditional probability density function(PDF)of the target variable given changing conditions.Its generalization and accuracy are better than those of the independent probability estimation model because it combines the advantages of various kinds of probability estimation models through linear combination.By using the CPEM,the normal operating bounds under different operating conditions can be obtained,which dynamically form the thresholds for anomaly detection.Meanwhile,with respect to the thresholds,hypothesis testing(HT)is adopted to identify the anomaly by inspecting whether the observations exceed the thresholds at a given significance level,providing sound mathematical support for anomaly detection and making the detection results more reliable.The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested by using the actual data of WTs with known faults.The results illustrate that the proposed method can detect the abnormal operating state of the gearbox and generator much more early than the system fault alarm.

Estimation of Fired Polynomial Effects of Mixed Models Based on PBIB

This paper discusses the estimation of fixed polynomial effects of mixed models based on PBIB, gives three concrete estimation, and analyses the condition of the design block while is orthogonal in these models. It also shows in mixed models that the three estimations of fixed polynomial effects T are identical under tile fact that the design block is orthogonal.

Enhanced baseline determination for formation flying LEOs by relative corrections of phase center and code residual variations

Formation flying Low Earth Orbiters(LEOs)are important for implementing new and advanced concepts in Earth observation missions.Precise Baseline Determination(PBD)is a prerequisite for LEOs to complete specified mission targets.PBD is usually performed based on space-borne GNSS data,the relative corrections of phase center and code residual variations play crucial roles in achieving the best relative orbit accuracy.Herein,the influences of antenna Relative Phase Centre Variations(RPCVs)and Single-Difference(SD)Melbourne-Wu¨bbena(MW)Combination Residuals Variations(SD MWVs)on PBD are studied.The methods were tested using flight data from Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment(GRACE)and GRACE Follow-On(GRACE-FO).Results showed that the maximum values for RPCVs and SD MWVs were 14 mm and 0.32 cycles,respectively.Then,the RPCVs correction significantly enhanced the baseline accuracy;the K-Band Ranging(KBR)measurement consistency improved by 30.1%and 37.5%for GRACE and GRACE-FO,respectively.The application of SD MWVs further improved the accuracy and reliability of PBD results.For GRACE,the ambiguities fixing success rate increased from 85.1%to 97.9%and a baseline consistency of 0.57 mm was achieved for the KBR measurements.It was found that the correction of both RPCVs and SD MWVs reduced the carrier phase observation minus computation residuals from double-difference ionosphere-free combination.In addition,in-flight data processing demonstrated that RPCVs and SD MWVs estimations for the current period could be used for the previous and subsequent periods.