A Generalized Wind Turbine Anomaly Detection Method Based on Combined Probability Estimation Model

Anomaly detection based on the data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition(SCADA)system is crucial to reduce the failure rate of wind turbines(WTs).The difficulty of this kind of methods is to dynamically identify the threshold for anomaly detection under changing operating conditions.In this paper,a generalized WT anomaly detection method based on the combined probability estimation model(CPEM)is proposed.The CPEM can estimate the conditional probability density function(PDF)of the target variable given changing conditions.Its generalization and accuracy are better than those of the independent probability estimation model because it combines the advantages of various kinds of probability estimation models through linear combination.By using the CPEM,the normal operating bounds under different operating conditions can be obtained,which dynamically form the thresholds for anomaly detection.Meanwhile,with respect to the thresholds,hypothesis testing(HT)is adopted to identify the anomaly by inspecting whether the observations exceed the thresholds at a given significance level,providing sound mathematical support for anomaly detection and making the detection results more reliable.The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested by using the actual data of WTs with known faults.The results illustrate that the proposed method can detect the abnormal operating state of the gearbox and generator much more early than the system fault alarm.

The Analysis of Secure HARQ with Chase Combining over Block Fading Channel

In this letter, the physical layer security of hybrid automatic repeat request with chase combining(HARQ-CC) scheme is investigated from the viewpoint of information theory. Different from the literature which used Wyner code, our analysis focuses on the general scenario without specific code. We firstly obtain the outage probability of both main channel and wiretap channel. Since retransmissions are completely determined by main channel, we then prove that its achievable diversity order equals to maximum transmission number() while this order of wiretap channel is only one. Furthermore, we evaluate the metric of secure gap which demonstrates the difference between main channel and wiretap channel with reliable and secure constraints. As increases, the secure gap decreases monotonously. When is large enough, the security can be guaranteed even if wiretap channel is better than main channel.

Application of Dempster-Shafer theory in mineral resource potential mapping

The Dempster-Shafer theory has been successfully applied to mineral resource potential mapping in GIS environmental. In this applied form, basic probability assignment and combined basic probability assignment are applied to measuring map pattem and map pattem combination, respectively; and the environment composed of the only two singleton sets （deposit set and non-deposit set）, is used for expressing the entire map area. For a subarea in which the certain map pattern combination exists, the combined basic probability assignment corresponding to the map pattern combination existing in this subarea, expresses the belief of inferring the subarea belonging to the deposit set from the evidence that the corresponding map pattern combination existing in the subarea. Thus, it may be served as a statistical index measuring the relative mineral resource potentials of the subarea. And it may be determined like 1） dividing the map area into a series of small equal-sized grid cells and then select the training sample set composed of the well-known grid cells or the entire grid cells; 2） estimating the basic probability assignments corresponding to each map pattern fromthe training sample set; 3） determining the map pattern combination existing in each cell, and then appling the Dempster＇s Rule of Combination to integrating the all basic probability assignments corresponding to the map patterns existing in the cell into the combined basic probability assignment. Mineral resource potential mapping with the Dempster-Shafer theory is demonstrated on a case study to select mineral resource targets. The experimental results manifest that the model can be compared with the weights of evidence model in the effectiveness of mineral resource target selection.

Parentage testing anomalies in Hong Kong SAR of China

Objective To determine if there are any differences in the number of exclusions from paternity of men using an anonymous parentage testing service compared with that of men using an in-person parentage testing service provided by the same company in Hong Kong SAR of China. Methods Comparable numbers of consecutive anonymous and in-person parentage tests conducted by the same company were analyzed. Results Men using an anonymous parentage testing service were excluded from paternity at a significantly greater rate (P<0.001), compared with men using an in-person parentage test service. Conclusions The results obtained from anonymous parentage testing indicate that the number of families containing children of doubtful parentage is much greater than expected previously. As illegitimate children are known to suffer greater degrees of abuse and neglect, this finding poses serious social questions regarding the welfare of families, which the relevant authorities should acknowledge and address.

PARAMETRIC AND NON-PARAMETRIC COMBINATION MODEL TO ENHANCE OVERALL PERFORMANCE ON DEFAULT PREDICTION

The probability of default(PD) is the key element in the New Basel Capital Accord and the most essential factor to financial institutions' risk management.To obtain good PD estimation,practitioners and academics have put forward numerous default prediction models.However,how to use multiple models to enhance overall performance on default prediction remains untouched.In this paper,a parametric and non-parametric combination model is proposed.Firstly,binary logistic regression model(BLRM),support vector machine(SVM),and decision tree(DT) are used respectively to establish models with relatively stable and high performance.Secondly,in order to make further improvement to the overall performance,a combination model using the method of multiple discriminant analysis(MDA) is constructed.In this way,the coverage rate of the combination model is greatly improved,and the risk of miscarriage is effectively reduced.Lastly,the results of the combination model are analyzed by using the K-means clustering,and the clustering distribution is consistent with a normal distribution.The results show that the combination model based on parametric and non-parametric can effectively enhance the overall performance on default prediction.

Physical layer security of underlay cognitive radio using maximal ratio combining

We investigate the secrecy outage performance of maximal ratio combining(MRC) in cognitive radio networks over Rayleigh fading channels. In a single-input multiple-output wiretap system, we consider a secondary user(SU-TX) that transmits confidential messages to another secondary user(SU-RX) equipped with M(M ≥ 1)antennas where the MRC technique is adopted to improve its received signal-to-noise ratio. Meanwhile, an eavesdropper equipped with N(N ≥ 1) antennas adopts the MRC scheme to overhear the information between SU-TX and SU-RX. SU-TX adopts the underlay strategy to guarantee the service quality of the primary user without spectrum sensing. We derive the closed-form expressions for an exact and asymptotic secrecy outage probability.