Complex adaptive system theory,agent-based modeling,and simulation in dominant technology formation

Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.

Linguistic Reflection on the Online Catchword of Appreciation —From the Perspective of Usage-based Language Model and Complex Adaptive System Theory

Language is a special social phenomenon and is always on the changing process with the development of society. During the evolving process of language, new language varieties will continuously emerge due to the changes of some social and cultural factors. Cyber language is universally accepted as one type of the social language varieties. Basically, cyber language can be treated as a complex adaptive system which is influenced by the interaction between users’ cognition, social culture and the surrounding environments. Thus it is safe to say that cyber language is always undergoing a dynamic evolving process. With the usage-based language model as the theoretical foundation, this paper proposes a Complex Adaptive System (CAS) approach to analyze the expression of Appreciation to explore the complex, dynamic and nonlinear development of cyber language from the angle of meaning construction, grammaticalization and functional adaption respectively. It is found that the expression of Appreciation is experiencing adaptively a semantic connotations development and a process of grammatical functions expansion as well. This paper suggests that the emergence and development of cyber language is a novel and trendy social language phenomenon. Network language can achieve its process and evolution under the huge impact of social changes and social promotions. When faced with the changing surroundings, cyber language itself enjoys a timely adaption and responsive development to keep up with the new environments, which reflects the basic principle of language development, namely, language changes with the development of society.

Adaptive generalized matrix projective lag synchronization between two different complex networks with non-identical nodes and different dimensions

The adaptive generalized matrix projective lag synchronization between two different complex networks with non-identical nodes and different dimensions is investigated in this paper. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and Barbalat＇s lemma, generalized matrix projective lag synchronization criteria are derived by using the adaptive control method. Furthermore, each network can be undirected or directed, connected or disconnected, and nodes in either network may have identical or different dynamics. The proposed strategy is applicable to almost all kinds of complex networks. In addition, numerical simulation results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this method, showing that the synchronization speed is sensitively influenced by the adaptive law strength, the network size, and the network topological structure.

An exploratory study of the growth of the Accountable Care Organization and its impact on physician groups’ profit: a complex adaptive system approach

The emergence of Accountable Care Organizations(ACOs)in the landscape of the U.S.healthcare system marks a paradigm shift in healthcare operations.The potential impact of ACOs has been a topic of intense debate.Traditional analytical approaches do not lend themselves to examining the complex phenomenon of the emergence and growth of ACOs in the healthcare network.We adopt a complex adaptive system lens to examine the growth of ACOs among physician groups and explore factors that influence this growth.We also discuss the impact of ACOs on the profit of physician groups.An agent-based model was built to simulate physician groups'ACO entrance and exit based on a set of simple rules and their complex interactions with other agents.Based on the simulation results,we derive patterns of ACO expansion and contraction,following four stages of wait-and-see,rollercoaster,fast growth,and stabilizing.Findings suggest that the growth of ACOs is sensitive to the initial state of ACO membership.When the initial size of ACO membership increases,it helps to eliminate the rollercoaster stage.In addition,the growth of the ACO varies depending on the cost–quality tradeoff.When both cost and quality objectives can be met simultaneously,the growth of ACO membership follows wait-and-see and fast growth stages followed by a different stage that we term sticky state.The impact of ACOs on physician groups’cumulative profit varies by the service quality level of the physician group.Physician groups affiliated with insurance companies charging the lowest or the highest level of health insurance premiums are worse off with the ACO option.However,the ACO benefits physician groups affiliated with an insurance company charging a moderate level of premiums.

CAS理论视角下我国智慧社区公共体育服务多元治理

采用文献资料、案例分析等研究方法,结合嘉兴市“运动家”智慧体育社区治理实践,从复杂适应系统(CAS)理论视角分析智慧社区公共体育服务治理系统的结构、特征和运行机制。认为:智慧社区公共体育服务治理结构由服务供需主体、政策制度系统、社区环境系统和社会环境系统等多元系统构成,具有聚集、多样性、“流”以及非线性特征,其运行机制包含以“刺激—反应”模型运行的内部自适应机制和以“回声”模型运行的外部交互机制。在此基础上,提出创新“积木块”组合方式、优化制度设计,拓宽资源“流”渠道、整合治理资源,建立创新引领新“标识”、聚合主体共识,重视主体间的“非线性”关系、营造协同治理环境等优化策略。

CAS理论视域下我国足球归化可持续发展研究

基于复杂适应系统理论审视我国足球归化发展,从运行机制出发深入剖析我国足球归化系统,并在此基础上提出系统优化路径,旨在为我国足球归化向更高层次演进,促进足球竞技水平提升提供有益参考。研究认为:我国足球归化符合马克思主义“认识—实践—再认识”的螺旋式发展,处于“再认识”阶段的归化亟需新理论指导。足球归化系统契合CAS的“四特征”与“三机制”,与复杂适应系统理论具有较高适切性。我国足球归化系统运行机制遵循“刺激反应”模型,由环境因素、探测器、If/Then规则集合、效应器构成。CAS理论指导下我国足球归化系统的优化路径:创新“积木块”组合方式,重视主体间“非线性”作用;打造足球归化新“标识”,吸引归化球员聚集;提升主体“自适应”能力,促进个体良性发展;保持“流”的畅通,营造良好的足球生态环境。

职业本科教育适应性的逻辑意蕴——基于CAS理论的视角

职业本科教育是跨界教育。跨界属性造就了职业本科教育的复杂性,复杂性催生了职业本科教育的适应性,适应性推动了职业本科教育的守正创新。适应性创新是铸就职业本科教育高质量发展的重要驱动力。基于CAS理论,提出职业本科教育适应性的本质逻辑是为职业本科教育打造一种跨界、集聚、融合、涌现、创新的社会契约。鉴于增强职业本科教育适应性还面临“办学历史较短,办学规模较小;院校类型复杂,办学实力不足;产教融合不够,政策执行掣肘;办学经费不足,影响适应发展”等现实困境,从多样性、互动性、涌现性、自组织性等维度,提出了增强职业本科教育适应性的策略建议。

我国远程医疗实施的影响因素分析——基于CAS理论

远程医疗在提高偏远或农村地区医疗服务质量及可及性方面作用显著,但在实践中利用率较低。本文基于复杂适应系统理论,分析医疗机构主体之间的关系是影响我国远程医疗开展的主要因素,并提出相关政策建议:建立区域远程医疗平台,加强基层医疗机构与上级医疗机构的紧密联系;借助区域远程医疗平台,利用远程会诊、远程诊断、远程教育等,增加基层医生的学习机会,促进优质医疗资源下沉;完善远程医疗技术建设与补偿政策。

基于CAS理论的多Agent建模仿真方法研究进展

基于复杂适应系统CAS理论的多Agent建模仿真是近年来复杂系统领域的一个研究热点。本文在简单介绍CAS理论的基础上对基于CAS理论的多Agent建模仿真方法的主要研究内容和研究现状进行分类和描述,最后对该研究领域存在的主要问题和发展趋势进行了分析和总结。

公共危机与政府治理模式变革——以复杂适应系统理论(CAS)为研究视角

进入新世纪以来,突发公共事件频繁出现,使得如何有效预防和化解公共危机成为世界各国政府和学界关注的焦点。本文从复杂适应系统理论(CAS)的视角,剖析我国传统政府治理模式在现代危机管理中的体制性弊端,提出建构适应外部复杂动态环境,政府主导,非政府组织、企业组织和公众合作互动的协同治理模式,以达成充分整合公共权力与社会资本,"合力共治"公共危机的良好局面。

基于CAS的企业竞争模型与仿真研究

针对传统企业竞争模型研究的局限性,提出了将CAS理论应用到企业竞争中的思想,借鉴Holland的Echo模型的建模方案,建立一个基于CAS理论的企业竞争模型。通过开发基于Swarm平台的Object-c仿真程序,模拟了不确定环境下企业的动态竞争行为和演化过程,并对仿真结果进行了分析。

基于CAS理论的万众云创新特征及其运行机制研究

万众云创新是一种体现集体智慧的由万众参与的创新模式,是一个多主体参与的复杂适应性系统。在相关文献研究的基础上,进一步明确了复杂适应系统(CAS)理论视角下万众云创新的内涵,重点分析了万众云创新多主体性、主动适应性、非线性、涌现性、开放性、多样性等复杂性特征,进而揭示了万众云创新内在动力机制、微观学习机制、组织协调机制、利益导向机制和互动反馈机制,并提出集聚大众智慧、加强主体间互动交流、优化万众云创新环境、搭建万众云创新平台将有助于万众云创新系统的健康运行和良性发展。

基于复杂适应系统理论(CAS)的政府治理公共危机模式革新探索

依循复杂适应系统理论(CAS)的原理和要求,尝试性地提出了构建适应复杂多变环境,政府主导,非政府组织、企业组织、社会公众、国际机构等多元主体协力互动,灵敏与高效的公共危机治理新模式的主张和对策建议。

综合孵化系统自适应机制研究——基于CAS刺激-反应模型

为深入研究创投与孵化器的有效合作问题,提出了综合孵化器系统的概念。结合当前复杂性研究成果,阐述了综合孵化器系统的概念内涵,从标识机制、内部模型、积木机制探讨了综合孵化系统的复杂适应性特征,基于复杂适应系统(CAS)刺激-反应模型构建了综合孵化器系统主体行为的基本模式,并从学习、协调、进化三方面分析了其自适应机制,得出了综合孵化器系统可以通过学习创新、协调多主体间资源分配和涌现进化来适应环境的结论,为综合孵化器系统的运行构建了理论基础。

一种基于CAS的代理主体行为仿真模型

科技创新系统是一个复杂适应系统。对该系统代理主体行为进行仿真研究,有助于进一步探讨代理主体行为对环境的影响,代理主体对企业技术进化过程以及创新对社会发展的影响,建立测算代理主体行为对社会影响的定量化模型。研究的最终目的是期望能为科技创新系统的建设和创新政策的制定提供科学的依据,使创新在推动经济和社会的发展中发挥更大的作用。研究模型选用Repast平台,Repast平台具有支持完全并行的离散事件操作、内置的系统动态模型等诸多特点。仿真结果表明:在科技创新系统的发展过程中,有必要加强代理的推广作用和政府的引导作用,使其能够与环境协调一致。该结论与实际相符合,证明了模型的有效性。

基于CAS理论的云创新模式

云创新是当今互联网+时代充分利用云计算、大数据等信息技术,更加开放的创新模式,具有低成本、高效率的显著特征。在应用CAS理论系统阐述云创新复杂性特征基础上,分析该系统的微观学习机制、组织协调机制、利益导向机制、市场评估机制;同时,应用IBM公司、互联网金融、work 2.0云创新的案例进行分析,据此提出云创新模式的理论模型,揭示创新的主体、环境与要素之间的内在作用关系;最后提出包括柔化组织结构、优化创新环境、强化学习交流等措施提高云创新的效果,以期为我国组织创新提供有益借鉴。

CAS理论视角下的语言适应论探析

维索尔伦将达尔文自然选择理论的思想推广到语用学领域,以语言选择与适应为中心构建了语言适应论。CAS理论视域下,语言适应论是以语言与语境相互作用的选择-适应机制为核心,其内在结构是以"因果性与偶然性的相互联合机制"为基础,以适应性造就语言使用的复杂性为基本特征。

基于CAS的城市空间演化多主体模型方法研究

在回顾城市空间演化研究发展轨迹的基础上,提出复杂适应性系统理论适合于研究城市化进程中出现的各类复杂问题,对比了复杂性研究方法中的元胞自动机、分形以及多主体方法在城市土地利用空间演化中的应用,得出多主体建模的方法更适宜研究具有高度复杂性的城市空间演化问题的结论。在此基础上,采用自下而上的仿真思路,着重从建模思路、主体行为描述和通信模型三方面阐述和分析了构建城市空间演化仿真模型的多主体方法,而从发现并分析城市中家庭、政府、企业、开发商等微观主体的交互行为以及这些行为是如何导致城市土地利用空间上的宏观演化。

基于CAS理论的出版企业技术创新行为模式研究

基于复杂适应系统(CAS)理论,分析了出版企业技术创新系统是一个复杂适应性系统,论述了出版企业技术创新的行为模式。其中,基于复杂的刺激-反应原理,构建了出版企业技术创新系统的主体行为模式;基于复杂的适应-学习原理,构建了出版企业技术创新系统的整体行为模式;基于复杂的层次-涌现原理,构建了出版企业技术创新系统的演化行为模式。复杂性科学的非线性、非均衡、复杂整体论的新的思维模式,为研究出版企业技术创新的行为模式提供了一种新的视角。

企业组织能力系统演化机制的新研究范式——基于CAS理论视角

目前国内外学者对组织能力的研究沿着不同的方向进行,处于分散状态。文章以CAS理论为视角,提出关于企业组织能力系统构成、运行的概念模型及其涌现机理和演化机制的新研究范式,具有学术前瞻性。该研究范式尤其能够解释动态复杂环境中企业为适应商业模式的变革与创新以获取新的资源和优化资源结构而与其他主体进行资源交换、共享以及创造的复杂过程,从而为企业在动态复杂环境中培育和提高组织能力、有效整合内外资源,构建核心竞争力提供新的思路和模式。