This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective. According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster syste...This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective. According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system with complicated and nonlinear characteristics, a non-linear information dynamics mode is introduced based on the maximum flux principle during modeling process to study the integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system. Based on the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics method, a stochastic evolution equation of this system is established. The integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system can be achieved by giving reasonable weights of each evaluation index to stabilize the system. The new model reveals the formation pattern of risk grade and the dynamics law of evolution. Meanwhile, a method is developed to solve the dynamics evolution equations of complex system through the self-organization feature map algorithm. The proposed method has been used in complex disaster integrated risk assessment for 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China mainland. The results have indicated that the model is objective and effective.展开更多
This paper aimed to make proposals for disaster prevention and reduction measures based on the experiences and lessons gained through the Kumamoto earthquake. This paper firstly introduced disaster countermeasures of ...This paper aimed to make proposals for disaster prevention and reduction measures based on the experiences and lessons gained through the Kumamoto earthquake. This paper firstly introduced disaster countermeasures of affected local governments within Kumamoto Prefecture. Next, by narrowing the focus on measures concerning the intangible side of things, this paper discussed three points including （1） issues concerning the assumption of disaster countermeasures; （2） issues concerning the BCP （Business Continuity Plan） of both government and private corporations, the DCP （District Continuity Plan） concerning local communities, the CCP （Community Continuity Plan） concerning local communities, and （3） issues conceming disaster countermeasures besides the two issues mentioned above. Based on the discussion results, it was pointed out that the disaster countermeasures assuming complex continuous disasters should be considered.展开更多
基金supported by the National Twelfth Five-year Technology Support Projects of China (Grant Nos. 2009BAJ28B04, 2011BAK07B01,2011BAJ08B03, and 2011BAJ08B05)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 51208017)+1 种基金Beijing Postdoctoral Research Foundation (Grant No. 2012ZZ-17)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (Grant No. 2011M500199)
文摘This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective. According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system with complicated and nonlinear characteristics, a non-linear information dynamics mode is introduced based on the maximum flux principle during modeling process to study the integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system. Based on the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics method, a stochastic evolution equation of this system is established. The integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system can be achieved by giving reasonable weights of each evaluation index to stabilize the system. The new model reveals the formation pattern of risk grade and the dynamics law of evolution. Meanwhile, a method is developed to solve the dynamics evolution equations of complex system through the self-organization feature map algorithm. The proposed method has been used in complex disaster integrated risk assessment for 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China mainland. The results have indicated that the model is objective and effective.
文摘This paper aimed to make proposals for disaster prevention and reduction measures based on the experiences and lessons gained through the Kumamoto earthquake. This paper firstly introduced disaster countermeasures of affected local governments within Kumamoto Prefecture. Next, by narrowing the focus on measures concerning the intangible side of things, this paper discussed three points including （1） issues concerning the assumption of disaster countermeasures; （2） issues concerning the BCP （Business Continuity Plan） of both government and private corporations, the DCP （District Continuity Plan） concerning local communities, the CCP （Community Continuity Plan） concerning local communities, and （3） issues conceming disaster countermeasures besides the two issues mentioned above. Based on the discussion results, it was pointed out that the disaster countermeasures assuming complex continuous disasters should be considered.
