A Health State Prediction Model Based on Belief Rule Base and LSTM for Complex Systems

In industrial production and engineering operations,the health state of complex systems is critical,and predicting it can ensure normal operation.Complex systems have many monitoring indicators,complex coupling structures,non-linear and time-varying characteristics,so it is a challenge to establish a reliable prediction model.The belief rule base(BRB)can fuse observed data and expert knowledge to establish a nonlinear relationship between input and output and has well modeling capabilities.Since each indicator of the complex system can reflect the health state to some extent,the BRB is built based on the causal relationship between system indicators and the health state to achieve the prediction.A health state prediction model based on BRB and long short term memory for complex systems is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the LSTMis introduced to predict the trend of the indicators in the system.Secondly,the Density Peak Clustering(DPC)algorithmis used todetermine referential values of indicators for BRB,which effectively offset the lack of expert knowledge.Then,the predicted values and expert knowledge are fused to construct BRB to predict the health state of the systems by inference.Finally,the effectiveness of the model is verified by a case study of a certain vehicle hydraulic pump.

Patterns of Interactions of the Complex City System:Emotional Urban Objects as Triggering Agents-A Secondary Publication

This article presents an analysis of the patterns of interactions resulting from the positive and negative emotional events that occur in cities,considering them as complex systems.It explores,from the imaginaries,how certain urban objects can act as emotional agents and how these events affect the urban system as a whole.An adaptive complex systems perspective is used to analyze these patterns.The results show patterns in the processes and dynamics that occur in cities based on the objects that affect the emotions of the people who live there.These patterns depend on the characteristics of the emotional charge of urban objects,but they can be generalized in the following process:(1)immediate reaction by some individuals;(2)emotions are generated at the individual level which begins to generalize,permuting to a collective emotion;(3)a process of reflection is detonated in some individuals from the reading of collective emotions;(4)integration/significance in the community both at the individual and collective level,on the concepts,roles and/or functions that give rise to the process in the system.Therefore,it is clear that emotions play a significant role in the development of cities and these aspects should be considered in the design strategies of all kinds of projects for the city.Future extensions of this work could include a deeper analysis of specific emotional events in urban environments,as well as possible implications for urban policy and decision making.

Systematic Risk Analysis of Listed Financial Institutions from the Perspective of Complex Network

Based on the complex network theory,this paper studies the systemic financial risks in China’s financial market.According to the industry classification of the China Securities Regulatory Commission in 2012,the daily closing prices of 45 listed financial institutions are collected and the daily return rates of each financial institution are measured according to the logarithmic return rate calculation formula.In this paper,the risk spillover value ΔCoVaR is used to measure the contribution degree of each financial institution to systemic risk.Finally,the relationship between the risk spillover valueΔCoVaR and the node topology index of the risk transmission network is investigated by using a regression model,and some policy suggestions are put forward based on the regression results.

The Golden Ratio Theorem: A Framework for Interchangeability and Self-Similarity in Complex Systems

The Golden Ratio Theorem, deeply rooted in fractal mathematics, presents a pioneering perspective on deciphering complex systems. It draws a profound connection between the principles of interchangeability, self-similarity, and the mathematical elegance of the Golden Ratio. This research unravels a unique methodological paradigm, emphasizing the omnipresence of the Golden Ratio in shaping system dynamics. The novelty of this study stems from its detailed exposition of self-similarity and interchangeability, transforming them from mere abstract notions into actionable, concrete insights. By highlighting the fractal nature of the Golden Ratio, the implications of these revelations become far-reaching, heralding new avenues for both theoretical advancements and pragmatic applications across a spectrum of scientific disciplines.

Auxiliary Software for Defining the Parameters of the Structural Organization of a Complex System

The developed auxiliary software serves to simplify, standardize and facilitate the software loading of the structural organization of a complex technological system, as well as its further manipulation within the process of solving the considered technological system. Its help can be especially useful in the case of a complex structural organization of a technological system with a large number of different functional elements grouped into several technological subsystems. This paper presents the results of its application for a special complex technological system related to the reference steam block for the combined production of heat and electricity.

Hierarchical Self-organization of Complex Systems

Researches on organization and structure in complex systems are academic and industrial fronts in modern sciences. Though many theories are tentatively proposed to analyze complex systems, we still lack a rigorous theory on them. Complex systems possess various degrees of freedom, which means that they should exhibit all kinds of structures. However, complex systems often show similar patterns and structures. Then the question arises why such similar structures appear in all kinds of complex systems. The paper outlines a theory on freedom degree compression and the existence of hierarchical self-organization for all complex systems is found. It is freedom degree compression and hierarchical self-organization that are responsible for the existence of these similar patterns or structures observed in the complex systems.

Engineering complex systems applied to risk management in the mining industry

Related to complexity, there is a wide diversity of concepts, ranging from ‘‘systemic" to ‘‘complex", implying a need for a unified terminology. Per different authors, the main drivers of complexity can be found in human behaviour and uncertainty. This complexity, structural or dynamic can be organizational, technological, or nested in their relationship. ISO international standard 31000:2009 definition of risk management ‘‘coordinated activities to direct and control an organization with regard to risk", when applied to economic sectors, industry, services, project, or activity, it requires the use of models or theories as guidelines. Therefore, as its basic elements comprehend human behaviour and/or uncertainty, risk management to be effective and adapted as much as possible to reality, must be operational within complex systems, as already demonstrated in different R&D environments. Risk management faces demanding challenges when approaching specific and endogenous needs, such as the mining sector. This paper presents a multivariable function analysis methodology approach based on complex system modelling and through real data corresponding to a risk management tool in the mining sector.

Numerical Simulation of the Fractional-Order Lorenz Chaotic Systems with Caputo Fractional Derivative

Although some numerical methods of the fractional-order chaotic systems have been announced,high-precision numerical methods have always been the direction that researchers strive to pursue.Based on this problem,this paper introduces a high-precision numerical approach.Some complex dynamic behavior of fractional-order Lorenz chaotic systems are shown by using the present method.We observe some novel dynamic behavior in numerical experiments which are unlike any that have been previously discovered in numerical experiments or theoretical studies.We investigate the influence of α_(1),α_(2),α_(3) on the numerical solution of fractional-order Lorenz chaotic systems.The simulation results of integer order are in good agreement with those of othermethods.The simulation results of numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the present method.

Low-Cost Embedded Controller for Complex Control Systems

Because of limited resource of embedded platforms, the computational complexity of advanced control algorithms raises significant challenges for the use of embedded systems in complex control field. A Scilab/Scicos based embedded controller is developed on which various control software can be easily modeled, simulated, implemented, and evaluated to meet the ever-expanding requirements of industrial control applications. Built on the Cirrus Logic EP9315 ARM systems-on-chip board, this embedded controller is possible to develop complex embedded control systems that employ advanced control strategies in a rapid and cost-efficient fashion. Due to the free and open source nature of the software packages used, the cost of the embedded controller is minimized.

Intrinsic Noise Monitoring of Complex Systems

The power-density function of the noise spectrum of open and complex systems changes by the power of frequency. We show that the fluctuation origin and the noise-powered description are equivalent to describe the colored noise power density. Based on this, we introduce a scale-independent invariant for monitoring the dynamics of the complex system. The monitoring of the noise spectrum of the system specifies the forecast of failure, the timing of desired regular corrections and/or the assessed operation life of the system, indicating the possible faults before it happens, predicting deterioration like wear/tear, fatigue in the still properly working system. These considerations are highly applicable to living systems and their preventive care.

Establishment of New Solution for Complex Systems in Multidisciplinary Sci-ence Based on Feedback System Analysis Method and Proven by Simulator

This paper establishes a very important scientific solution to science of complexity for physicists, and presents a multidisciplinary involved physics and engineering. The innovative solution for complex systems presented here is verified on the basis of principles in engineering such as feed-back-system analysis using the classical control theory. This paper proposes that a complex system is a closed-loop system with a negative feedback element and is a solvable problem. A complex system can be analyzed using the system analysis theory in control engineering, and its behavior can be realized using a specially designed simulator.

A Novel Method for Vibration Mitigation of Complex Mechanical Systems

Taking the complex mechanical systems as the research project,a theoretical multi-degree-of-freedom(MDOF)model was established.Based on the vibration characteristics analysis of this system,a novel method of vibration mitigation was proposed,which can be applied to most of the complex mechanical systems.Through this method,limited grounding stiffness was made use of and added to certain degree of freedom(DOF)discretely.Thus,the root-meansquare(RMS)of the systems amplitude can be reduced to ideal level.The MATLAB code based on this method was attached,which was tested on the theoretical model.Consider that complex mechanical systems are nonlinear and uncertain,theoretically the optimal solution of vibration mitigation is inaccessible.However,this method can always provide a relatively effective solution.

A Novel Evolutionary-Fuzzy Control Algorithm for Complex Systems

This paper presents an adaptive fuzzy control scheme based on modified genetic algorithm. In the control scheme, genetic algorithm is used to optimze the nonlinear quantization functions of the controller and some key parameters of the adaptive control algorithm. Simulation results show that this control scheme has satisfactory performance in MIMO systems, chaotic systems and delay systems.

Decentralized Variable Structure Control of Complex Giant Singular Uncertainty Systems

This paper, at the first time, considers the problem of decentralized variable structure control of complex giant singular uncertainty systems by using the property of diagonally dominant matrix and Frobenius-Person theorem. The splendid selection of switching manifold for each subsystem makes the design relatively straightforward and can be easily realized. An illustrate example is given.

Approximate Solutions to the Discontinuous Riemann-Hilbert Problem of Elliptic Systems of First Order Complex Equations

Several approximate methods have been used to find approximate solutions of elliptic systems of first order equations. One common method is the Newton imbedding approach, i.e. the parameter extension method. In this article, we discuss approximate solutions to discontinuous Riemann-Hilbert boundary value problems, which have various applications in mechanics and physics. We first formulate the discontinuous Riemann-Hilbert problem for elliptic systems of first order complex equations in multiply connected domains and its modified well-posedness, then use the parameter extensional method to find approximate solutions to the modified boundary value problem for elliptic complex systems of first order equations, and then provide the error estimate of approximate solutions for the discontinuous boundary value problem.

Preliminary Study on the Effect of Different Ecological Cultivation Modes on the Water Stability of Soil Aggregates in Rubber Based Agroforestry Systems

Rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis Müll. Arg.) have been commercially cultivated for a century and a half in Asia, particularly in China, and they constitute a common element of plantation ecosystems in tropical regions. Soil health is fundamental to the sustainable development of rubber plantations. The objective of the study is to explore the influence of different complex ecological cultivation modes on the stability of soil aggregates in rubber based agroforestry systems. In this study, the ecological cultivation mode of rubber—Alpinia oxyphylla plantation, the ecological cultivation mode of rubber—Phrynium hainanense plantations, the ecological cultivation mode of rubber—Homalium ceylanicum plantations and monoculture rubber plantations were selected, and the particle size distribution of soil aggregates and their water stability characteristics were analyzed. The soil depth of 0 - 20 cm and 20 - 40 cm was collected for four cultivation modes. Soil was divided into 6 particle levels > 20 cm. soil was divided into 6 particle levels > 5 mm, 2 - 5 mm, 1 - 2 mm, 0.5 - 1 mm, 0.25 - 0.5 mm, and 0.053 - 0.25 mm according to the wet sieve method. The particle size proportion and water stability of soil aggregates were determined by the wet sieve method. The particle size proportion and water stability of soil aggregates under different ecological cultivation modes were analyzed. The results showed that under different ecological cultivation modes in the shallow soil layer (0 - 20 cm), the rubber—Alpinia oxyphylla plantation and the rubber—Phrynium hainanense plantation promoted the development of dominant soil aggregates towards larger size classes, whereas the situation is the opposite for rubber—Homalium ceylanicum plantation. In soil layer (20 - 40 cm), the ecological cultivation mode of rubber—Phrynium hainanense plantation developed the dominant radial level of soil aggregates to the diameter level of large aggregates. Rubber—Alpinia oxyphylla plantation and rubber—Homalium ceylanicum plantation, three indicators, including the water-stable aggregate content R0.25 (>0.25 mm water-stable aggregates), mean weight diameter (MWD), and geometric mean diameter (GMD), were all lower than those in the rubber monoculture mode. However, in the rubber—Phrynium hainanense plantation, the water-stable aggregate content R0.25, mean weight diameter, and geometric mean diameter were higher than in the rubber monoculture mode, although these differences did not reach statistical significance.

A BiLSTM cardinality estimator in complex database systems based on attention mechanism

An excellent cardinality estimation can make the query optimiser produce a good execution plan.Although there are some studies on cardinality estimation,the prediction results of existing cardinality estimators are inaccurate and the query efficiency cannot be guaranteed as well.In particular,they are difficult to accurately obtain the complex relationships between multiple tables in complex database systems.When dealing with complex queries,the existing cardinality estimators cannot achieve good results.In this study,a novel cardinality estimator is proposed.It uses the core techniques with the BiLSTM network structure and adds the attention mechanism.First,the columns involved in the query statements in the training set are sampled and compressed into bitmaps.Then,the Word2vec model is used to embed the word vectors about the query statements.Finally,the BiLSTM network and attention mechanism are employed to deal with word vectors.The proposed model takes into consideration not only the correlation between tables but also the processing of complex predicates.Extensive experiments and the evaluation of BiLSTM-Attention Cardinality Estimator(BACE)on the IMDB datasets are conducted.The results show that the deep learning model can significantly improve the quality of cardinality estimation,which is a vital role in query optimisation for complex databases.

IoT-based Smart and Complex Systems：A Guest Editorial Report

THE Industrial Revolution starting from about 1760 and ending at around 1840 has been viewed as the first Industrial Revolution.It features with the replacement of human and animal muscle power with steam and mechanical power.Human income per capita had taken 800 years to double by

Design and Optimization of Multiple Interconnected Utility Systems in An Integrated Refining and Petrochemical Complex

In an integrated refining and petrochemical complex,a centralized utility system(CUS)is introduced to integrate the steam demands of production plants.Besides,two sub-utility systems(SUSs)located inside the alkene and refinery plants,respectively,can satisfy the shaft demands.It is difficult to determine the steam production of the CUS because the steam demands of the alkene and refinery plants also depend on the design and operation of the SUSs.To explore the complicated interaction between the CUS and SUSs,we proposed a mixed-integer nonlinear programming(MINLP)model for the design and optimization of multiple interconnected utility systems to minimize the total annualized cost(TAC).An extended superstructure was suggested to contain multiple inter-plant connected steam pipe alternatives between the CUS and SUSs.A more accurate model of the complex steam turbine was proposed.Then the proposed MINLP framework is applied to a new integrated refining and petrochemical complex.Two scenarios are investigated in the case study to explore the effect of steam main temperatures on system configurations and operating parameters.By optimizing the main temperatures,a TAC of$2.7 million can be saved.Judging from the results of the two scenarios,the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed framework for the design and optimization of multiple interconnected utility systems have been demonstrated.

Health Systems as Complex Systems

Health systems are paradigmatic examples of human organizations that blend a multitude of different professional and disciplinary features within a critically performance environment. Communication failure and defective processes in health systems have a tremendous impact in society, both in the financial and human aspects. Traditionally, health systems have been regarded as linear hierarchic structures. However, recent developments in the sciences of complexity point out to health systems as complex entities governed by non-linear interaction laws, self-organization and emergent phenomena. In this work we review some aspects of complexity behind health systems and how they can be applied to improve the performance of healthcare organizations.