Comparison among the UECM Model, and the Composite Model in Forecasting Malaysian Imports

For more than a century, forecasting models have been crucial in a variety of fields. Models can offer the most accurate forecasting outcomes if error terms are normally distributed. Finding a good statistical model for time series predicting imports in Malaysia is the main target of this study. The decision made during this study mostly addresses the unrestricted error correction model (UECM), and composite model (Combined regression—ARIMA). The imports of Malaysia from the first quarter of 1991 to the third quarter of 2022 are employed in this study’s quarterly time series data. The forecasting outcomes of the current study demonstrated that the composite model offered more probabilistic data, which improved forecasting the volume of Malaysia’s imports. The composite model, and the UECM model in this study are linear models based on responses to Malaysia’s imports. Future studies might compare the performance of linear and nonlinear models in forecasting.

Evaluation of toppling rock slopes using a composite cloud model with DEMATEL–CRITIC method

Safety evaluation of toppling rock slopes developing in reservoir areas is crucial. To reduce the uncertainty of safety evaluation, this study developed a composite cloud model, which improved the combination weights of the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) and criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) methods. A safety evaluation system was developed according to in situ monitoring data. The backward cloud generator was used to calculate the numerical characteristics of a cloud model of quantitative indices, and different virtual clouds were used to synthesize some clouds into a generalized one. The synthesized numerical characteristics were calculated to comprehensively evaluate the safety of toppling rock slopes. A case study of a toppling rock slope near the Huangdeng Hydropower Station in China was conducted using monitoring data collected since operation of the hydropower project began. The results indicated that the toppling rock slope was moderately safe with a low safety margin. The composite cloud model considers the fuzziness and randomness of safety evaluation and enables interchange between qualitative and quantitative knowledge. This study provides a new theoretical method for evaluating the safety of toppling rock slopes. It can aid in the predication, control, and even prevention of disasters.

Composition of Model Interface--A Theorem of Model Composition

Building a model for a object through model composition is a interesting topics, this paper research the interface composit ion of models in the Zeigler’s modeling methodology DEVS.

Towards 6D Little String Theory of Particles

A model for particles based on preons in chiral, vector and tensor/graviton supermultiplets of unbroken global supersymmetry is engineered. The framework of the model is little string theory. Phenomenological predictions are discussed.

2-D Composite Model for Numerical Simulations of Nonlinear Waves

A composite model, which is the combination of Boussinesq equations and Volume of Fluid (VOF) method, has been developed for 2-D time-domain computations of nonlinear waves in a large region. The whole computational region Omega is divided into two subregions. In the near-field around a structure, Omega(2), the flow is governed by 2-D Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations with a turbulence closure model of k-epsilon equations and numerically solved by the improved VOF method; whereas in the subregion Omega(1) (Omega(1) = Omega - Omega(2)) the flow is governed by one-D Boussinesq equations and numerically solved with the predictor-corrector algorithm. The velocity and the wave surface elevation are matched on the common boundary of the two subregions. Numerical tests have been conducted for the case of wave propagation and interaction with a wave barrier. It is shown that the composite model can help perform efficient computation of nonlinear waves in a large region with the complicated flow fields near structures taken into account.

Modeling of material deformation behavior in micro-forming under consideration of individual grain heterogeneity

This study aims to develop a model to characterize the inhomogeneous material deformation behavior in micro-forming.First,the influence of individual grain heterogeneity on the deformation behavior of CuZn20 foils was investigated via tensile and micro-hardness tests.The results showed that different from thick sheets,the hardening behavior of grains in the deformation area of thin foils is not uniform.The flow stress of thin foils actually only reflects the average hardening behavior of several easy-deformation-grains,which is the reason that thinner foils own smaller flow stress.Then,a composite modeling method under consideration of individual grain heterogeneity was developed,where the effects of grain orientation and shape are quantitatively represented by the method of flow stress classification and Voronoi tessellation,respectively.This model provides an accurate and effective method to analyze the influence of individual grain heterogeneity on the deformation behavior of the micro-sized material.

Diesel molecular composition and blending modeling based on SUBEM framework

Diesel molecular compositional model has important application for diesel quality prediction,blending,and molecular-level process model development.In this paper,different types of diesel molecular compositional and blending models were constructed based on the SU-BEM framework.More than 1500 representative molecules were selected to form the molecular structure library.The probability density functions(PDFs)combination was determined by experimental data and experience.A quadratic optimization strategy combining genetic algorithm with local optimization algorithm was adopted to improve the accuracy of the compositional model.The model results show good agreement with the experimental data.The diesel blending model was constructed at the molecular-level based on the above diesel compositional models.The properties of the blending model accord with the experimental regulations.It is proved that the compositional models and blending model constructed have high accuracy and strong prediction capability,and are applicable to the industrial process.

Modified molecular matrix model for predicting molecular composition of naphtha＇

To improve the naphtha composition prediction model based on molecular type homologous series matrix （MTHS）, this paper puts forward a novel molecular matrix to characterize the naphtha composition and the norreal distribution hypothesis to better describe the molecular composition distribution within each homologous series of the molecular matrix. Through prediction calculation of eight groups of naphtha samples and eight groups of gasoline samples, it is verified that the normal distribution hypothesis is more applicable than gamma distribution hypothesis for the prediction model. According to the prediction results of the samples, the restrain range of normal distribution parameters during model computing process is summarized. With the bulk properties of naphtha samples and the value range of distribution parameters as input conditions, this study utilizes the improved novel molecular matrix to predict the composition of naphtha samples. As the results show, the novel molecular matrix can predict more detailed composition information of naphtha and improve prediction accuracy with less unknown parameters.

Multi-scale Modeling of the Effective Chloride Ion Diffusion Coefficient in Cement-based Composite Materials

N-layered spherical inclusions model was used to calculate the effective diffusion coefficient of chloride ion in cement-based materials by using multi-scale method and then to investigate the relationship between the diffusivity and the microstructure of cement-basted materials where the microstructure included the interfacial transition zone （ITZ） between the aggregates and the bulk cement pastes as well as the microstructure of the bulk cement paste itself. For the convenience of applications, the mortar and concrete were considered as a four-phase spherical model, consisting of cement continuous phase, dispersed aggregates phase, interface transition zone and their homogenized effective medium phase. A general effective medium equation was established to calculate the diffusion coefficient of the hardened cement paste by considering the microstructure. During calculation, the tortuosity （n） and constrictivity factors （Ds/Do） of pore in the hardened pastes are n^3.2, Ds/Do=l.Ox 10-4 respectively from the test data. The calculated results using the n-layered spherical inclusions model are in good agreement with the experimental results; The effective diffusion coefficient of ITZ is 12 times that of the bulk cement for mortar and 17 times for concrete due to the difference between particle size distribution and the volume fraction of aggregates in mortar and concrete.

Strong motion simulation by the composite source modeling:A case study of 1679 M8.0 Sanhe-Pinggu earthquake

In this study, a composite source model has been used to calculate the realistic strong ground motions in Beijing area, caused by 1679 Ms8.0 earthquake in Sanhe-Pinggu. The results could provide us the useful physical parameters for the future seismic hazard analysis in this area. Considering the regional geological/geophysical background, we simulated the scenario earthquake with an associated ground motions in the area ranging from 39.3°N to 41. 1°N in latitude and from 115.35°E to 117.55°E in longitude. Some of the key factors which could influence the characteristics of strong ground motion have been discussed, and the resultant peak ground acceleration （PGA） distribution and the peak ground velocity （PGV） distribution around Beijing area also have been made as well. A comparison of the simulated result with the results derived from the attenuation relation has been made, and a sufficient discussion about the advantages and disadvantages of composite source model also has been given in this study. The numerical results, such as the PGA, PGV, peak ground displacement （PGD）, and the three-component time-histories developed for Beijing area, have a potential application in earthquake engineering field and building code design, especially for the evaluation of critical constructions, government decision making and the seismic hazard assessment by financial/insurance companies.

Experimental and Modeling Studies on the Chemical Vapor Infiltration with Respect to the Effects of Thermal Gradient and Other Operating Parameters

Effects of operating parameters in the thermal gradient chemical vapor infiltration of propane such as thermal gradient, diffusion, infiltrations time, and concentration of propane were studied by focusing on the visualizations of the intrinsic effects of these parameters. A uniform deposition in the preform was obtained with a gradually increasing temperature along the gas flow. The uniformity of deposition through the preform got improved with increasing deposition time. Results of numerical modeling estimated the experimental data very well when the pre-exponential factor of the overall rate of carbon deposition from propane reported by Vaidyaraman[1] was multiplied by 4. The average density of a preform increased by about 3 times from 0.38 to 1.15 g/cm3 after 60 hr deposition with a thermal gradient under the conditions of 3% propane in nitrogen and 840 to 900 ℃.

A composite sphere assemblage model for porous oolitic rocks:Application to thermal conductivity

The present work is devoted to the determination of linear effective thermal conductivity of porous rocks characterized by an assemblage of grains(oolites) coated by a matrix. Two distinct classes of pores, i.e.micropores or intra oolitic pores(oolite porosity) and mesopores or inter oolitic pores(inter oolite porosity), are taken into account. The overall porosity is supposed to be connected and decomposed into oolite porosity and matrix porosity. Within the framework of Hashin composite sphere assemblage(CSA)models, a two-step homogenization method is developed. At the first homogenization step, pores are assembled into two layers by using self-consistent scheme(SCS). At the second step, the two porous layers constituting the oolites and the matrix are assembled by using generalized self-consistent scheme(GSCS) and referred to as three-phase model. Numerical results are presented for data representative of a porous oolitic limestone. It is shown that the influence of porosity on the overall thermal conductivity of such materials may be significant.

Modeling of the Shape Forming of Composite Roll

A shape modeling of spray formed composite roll, which is utilized to predict the shape and dimension of roll during spray forming process, is developed in this paper. The influences of the principal spray forming parameters, such as the spatial distribution of melt mass flux, spray distance, rotating and translating speeds of substrate bar etc. , on the geometry and dimension of spray formed product were investigated.

Geological - Geophysical - Geochemical Exploration Models of Copper - Iron Deposits in Southeastern Hubei

This paper discusses geological-geophysical-geochemical models of such typical deposits as the Tieshan-type Fe-Cu deposit, the Tonglushan-type Cu-Fe deposit, the Yehuaxiang-type Cu deposit, the Jiguanzui-type Cu-Au deposit, and the Tongshankou-type Cu (Mo) deposit. The models were established based on practical data of the polymetallic deposits dominated by copper ore in southeastern Hubei. These models, which are graphically illustrated in the paper, systematically summarize the metallogenic geological conditions and the geophysical-geochemical characteristics of copper deposits in this area. The models are of practical significance for studying copper deposits, predicting mineral resources, choosing exploration methods, and searching for ore deposits based on existing ones in the study area.

An angular cutoff composite model for investigation on electromagnetic scattering from two-dimensional rough sea surfaces

Based on the local configuration angle division to select the corresponding method for electromagnetic scattering calculation from rough sea surface, this paper presents an angular cutoff composite model： when the local scattered angle is in the specular region that is given by an approximately 20 degrees cone around the specular direction, the Kirchhoff approximation is applied to evaluate the specular reflection, which dominates the total scattering in this region; the small perturbation method is employed to handle the diffuse reflection which is predominant as the local scattered angle is situated out of the specular region. Numerical results are compared with those of experimental and theoretical models in several configurations as a function of incident angle, wind speed, wind direction. The comparison of numerical results of other experimental and theoretical models in several configurations shows that the new composite model is robust to give accurate numerical evaluations for the sea surface scattering.

Longitudinal Compressive Failure of Multiple-Fiber Model Composites for a Unidirectional Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic

The longitudinal compressive failure of a unidirectional carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP) was studied using multiple-fiber model composites. Aligned carbon fibers were embedded in an epoxy matrix and put on a rectangular beam. A compression test of the model composite was performed by means of a four point bending test of the rectangular beam. The number of carbon fibers was changed from one to several thousands, by which the effect on compressive failure modes was investigated. A compressive failure of a single-fiber model composite was fiber crush. The fiber crush strain was much higher than the compressive failure strain of the unidirectional carbon fiber reinforced plastic. By contrast, a compressive failure of a multiple-fiber model composite was kink-band. The longitudinal compressive failure mechanism shifted from fiber crush to kink-band due to an increasing number of fibers. Kink-band parameters i.e. kink-band angle and kink-band width were dependent on the number of closely-aligned carbon fibers.

BASIC SOLUTION FOR THE THREE-PHASE COMPOSITE CONSTITUTIVE MODEL IN ANTIPLANE PIEZOELECTRICITY

A basic solution in series form for the three-phase composite cylindrical model in antiplane piezoelectricity subjected to the action of a singularity in the intermediate matrix region is presented. The solution is obtained through the complex potential approach in conjunction with the techniques of analytical continuation, singularity analysis, Laurent series expansion in an annular region and Cauchy integral formulae, etc. Based on the complex potentials obtained, explicit expressions for the distribution of stress and electric displacement in the three regions are also derived.

ARC INTERFACE CRACK IN A THREE-PHASE PIEZOELECTRIC COMPOSITE CONSTITUTIVE MODEL

An in-depth investigation is made on the problem of an arc-shapedinterface insulating crack in a three-phase concentric circularcylindrical piezoelectric composite constitutive model. An exactsolution in series form is derived by employing the complex variablemethod. In addition, the distribution of physical quantities such asstresses, strains, electric displacements and electric fields in thewhole field and along the interface is also presented.

A Biomimetic Model of Fiber-reinforced Composite Materials

In thjs paper. bamboo fiber has been. on micro scale. investigated as a helical. multi-layered hollow cylinder, the stiffness featu res of bamboo bast fiber were compared with those of a multifilament yarn in traditional fiber-reinforced composite materials, Moreover. a biomimetic model of the reinforce ment of fiber-reinforced composite materials was proposed by imitating the fine structure of bamboo bast fiber. The results show that the comprehensive stiffness properties of the cornplicated fine struc ture of bamboo fiber is superior over those of traditional fiber-reinforced composites.

The finite element analysis of articular cartilage fiber-reinforced composite model under rolling load

Articular cartilage is a layer of low-friction,load-bearing soft hydrated tissue covering bone-ends in diarthrosis,which plays an important role in spreading the load,reducing the joint contact stress,joint friction and wear during exercise.The vital mechanical function