Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Section of Yellow River Basin Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

As a basic natural resource and strategic economic resource,the development and utilization of water resources is an important issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood.How to scientifically evaluate the water resources carrying capacity is the premise to improve the regional water resources carrying capacity and ensure the regional water security.The Gansu section of the Yellow River basin is an important water conservation and recharge area.Whether the water resources in this area can ensure the normal operation of the ecosystem and whether it can carry the sustainable development of social economy is the key to realize the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.In this study,from the three dimensions of water consumption per capita,water consumption of 10000 yuan GDP and ecological water use rate,by constructing the evaluation index system and index grading standard of water resources carrying capacity,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Gansu section of the Yellow River Basin,in order to provide theoretical decision-making basis for the comprehensive development,utilization and planning management of water resources in Gansu section of the Yellow River basin and even the whole basin,and help the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

Evaluation of water resources conserved by forests in the Hani rice terraces system of Honghe County,Yunnan,China：an application of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model

The Hani Rice Terraces System, based on gravity-flow irrigation, is one of the Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems(GIAHS) pilot sites selected by FAO in 2010. The water resource plays an important role in the sustainable development of this system. The value of water conserved by the forest is influenced by natural, economic and social factors. In this paper, the water quality, per capita water resources, per capita GDP and population density are chosen as indices to construct an index system for a comprehensive evaluation of water resources value. The weights of these indices are 0.443, 0.31, 0.141 and 0.106 respectively, which are determined by the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) method. The water resources value has been assessed by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The results show that the water resources value in the Hani Rice Terraces System is 4.25 RMB/m^3. Evaluating the value of water resources in the Hani Rice Terraces System can provide a reference for ecological compensation, for raising public awareness of the importance of protecting the system, and ultimately achieving its sustainable development.

Surface runoff processes and sustainable utilization of water resources in Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China

Water is the important resource to guarantee the existence and development of oases in arid areas. To improve the utilization efficiency of water resources in Manas River Basin, this paper investigated the trends and periods of runoff based on the runoff and climate data for the past 50 years. Subsequently, with the socioeconomic and water resources data, we studied a comprehensive evaluation on the water security in this area. The results indicated that the stream flows in the three hydrological stations of Hongshanzui, Kensiwat and Bajiahu have sig- nificantly increased and undergone abrupt changes, with periods of 18 and 20 years. According to assessment, water security in the Manas River Basin was at an unsafe level in 2008. In criterion layer, the ecological security index and the index of supply-demand situation are both at the relatively secure level; the quantity index and so- cioeconomic index of water resources are at the unsafe level and basic security level, respectively. Therefore, in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development within the Manas River Basin, it is vital to take a series of effective measures to improve the status of water security.

Research on the Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources of Jinan City

The study on the sustainable utilization of water resources of Jinan city is a research hotspot in the urban sustainable development field.How to use a scientific and rational evaluation index system to analyze the sustainable utilization of water resources of Jinan city and then guide the development and utilization of water resources becomes particularly important.Based on the theory of sustainable development this study introduces the method,basic steps and evaluation indexes of the assessment of the development and utilization of water resources.By systemic analyzing the exploitation and utilization standards of water resources and economy and society in Jinan city,the evaluation and index system of sustainable utilization of water resources in Jinan city can be constructed and index weight can be confirmed,and then,the standard of sustainable utilization of water resources in different years can be analyzed comparably.Thus,the deficiency of lack of reflection of coordination extent in water resources development standard,society and economy in traditional evaluation method is settled efficiently.The paper takes the sustainable utilization of water resources of Qingdao City in 2008 as the standard to compare and assess the water resources utilization in Jinan City.The paper also collects data of water resources in Jinan City from 2001 to 2007.The result indicates that evaluation method is of feasibility and it is effective to the implementation of sustainable utilization strategy water resources in Jinan City.

TOPSIS Based Assessment of Sustainable Water Resources Utilization

Based on water resources conditions,social development,social economy and ecological conditions,the Indicators system for sustainability assessment of water resources use( ISSAWRU) was established for Yinchuan City. Using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution( TOPSIS),the sustainable development and utilization plan of water resources was assessed for Yinchuan City during 2010-2014. In 2010-2014,there were no significant changes in the natural conditions of water resources in Yinchuan City; however,with the promulgation of national water resources related policies,Yinchuan City realized gradual increase in the water resources utilization rate,gradual improvement in the ecological environment,and gradual optimization of water resources sustainable utilization situation at the same time of ensuring rapid economic growth.

基于代谢理论的城市群水资源承载力综合评价

【目的】随着中国城市群的可持续发展,水资源短缺和时空分布不均等问题日益突出,水资源承载力对城市群的可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义【方法】基于区域水资源代谢理论,构建综合考虑区域水资源特征、社会经济系统特征和可持续发展原则的评价指标体系,采用TOPSIS计算了2019年京津冀城市群(BTHUA)的水资源承载力(WRCC)指数。在综合分析区域水资源现状的基础上,提出了提高区域水资源承载力的建议。【结果】结果显示:2019年BTHUA的整体承载能力指数并不高,北京市(0.5612)、天津市(0.5306)和唐山市(0.4075)评分较高,WRCC处于中等水平,仍有进一步发展的潜力。石家庄市(0.3843)、秦皇岛市(0.3165)、衡水市(0.2952)、承德市(0.2935)和邢台市(0.2674)评分中等,WRCC达到了临界值,并且发展潜力有限。而廊坊市(0.2214)、邯郸市(0.2188)、张家口市(0.2115)、保定市(0.2086)、沧州市(0.2026)评分偏低,WRCC达到上限,进一步发展的潜力非常有限。【结论】根据物质流分析,(1)水资源系统上,京津冀地区整体水资源生产能力不容乐观,水资源开发潜力不足;(2)社会经济上,BTHUA社会规模已经超过了水资源的承载能力,未来还将继续扩大;(3)生态系统上,除北京、天津、秦皇岛市,其余城市生态用水占比皆达不到标准。该研究考虑整个用水系统,可以得到比其他方法更全面、更准确的水资源承载力状况,可以为制定科学、可持续的水资源发展战略提供参考,并提供水资源利用政策和未来社会经济发展的建议。

基于SD模型的张掖盆地水资源生态足迹核算与预测

根据水资源生态足迹模型,通过构建张掖盆地水资源利用SD模型,设计5类不同情景来核算和预测现状(2000—2020年)和未来(2021—2050年)张掖盆地水资源生态足迹和生态承载力。结果表明:对于现状,人均水资源生态足迹、生态承载力和生态盈亏均值分别为3.517、0.272和-3.245 hm^(2)/人,水资源生态压力指数和生态足迹强度均值分别为12.969和2.822 hm^(2)/104元;农业用水在张掖盆地水资源生态足迹核算中占绝对优势但占比在下降,农业领域是节水的重点且潜能较大;水资源生态足迹强度明显下降(降幅90.21%),证明了张掖盆地用水效率的上升;张掖盆地的水资源利用压力较大。平均而言,预测期内张掖盆地不同情景中人均水资源生态足迹均大于人均水资源生态承载力,由此导致人均水资源生态亏损的出现;各情景下水资源生态压力指数和生态足迹强度均值分别为12.932、13.483、10.055、12.698和9.846及0.281、0.206、0.201、0.281和0.196 hm^(2)/104元,未来时间里张掖盆地的水资源利用仍然处于不安全的状态。2021—2050年张掖盆地无法有效缓解水资源利用紧张的状况,需采用经济发展与水资源保护兼顾的发展方案,推荐政府部门采用情景ZS 5。因此,张掖盆地未来水资源利用需要全社会、各部门的通力合作,不断提高水资源利用效率,大力推进节约用水措施和技术的普及与应用,才能确保水资源的可持续利用。

Cloud model-based analysis of regional sustainable water resource utilization schemes

Given the adverse effects of current water shortages,low utilization and imbalance between the supply and demand,and other status quo problems relating to social economic development,the construction industry and agriculture,a cloud model was applied to a water resource system using five sustainable water resource utilization schemes for Kiamusze,Heilongjiang Province,as an example.This research changes the qualitative description of the concept language into a quantitative analysis of an evaluation indicator.A cloud model-based analytical method for regional sustainable water resource utilization schemes was proposed,and the sustainable grades of the water resources were calculated.The research results showed that,in addition to the natural continuation of such schemes,the development trends of four new schemes achieved the sustainable utilization of water resources,and thus,the sustainable water resource utilization was optimized.However,when the open-source,throttle,comprehensive and coordination schemes were subjected to the optimum applicability analysis,based on the limiting factors in different periods,resource availability and long-term development,decision-making regarding the best solution in different periods better ensures sustainable development in Kiamusze.The research results provide a significant theoretical basis for the formulation of scientific and reasonable sustainable water resource utilization strategies in Kiamusze.

西安市水资源环境承载力评估与预测研究

基于水资源环境承载力系统的内涵,从水资源、水环境、社会和经济四方面构建西安市水资源环境承载力指标体系,运用TOPSIS法、模糊综合评判法评估2006—2020年西安市水资源环境承载力状况。基于评估结果,运用GM(1,1)模型预测了未来两年西安市水资源环境承载力变化趋势。结果表明:总体上,2006—2020年西安市水资源环境承载力呈波动上升趋势,各子系统综合评分均呈上升态势;未来两年,水资源环境承载力逐年递增,且都已达优质水平,水环境和经济子系统均为绿灯,社会子系统在2022年上升至绿灯,水资源子系统水平仍堪忧。

基于EWM-AHP-DEMATEL模糊评价模型的区域水资源承载力研究

【目的】针对目前区域水资源承载力评价中存在的评价指标体系不完善、指标权重不够客观的问题,以鄂尔多斯市为例,建立新的评价模型,为该地区合理优化配置水资源提供理论依据与参考。【方法】从区域水资源禀赋、开发利用情况、人类活动的影响、生态环境4个方面选取16个指标,构建水资源-社会-经济-生态耦合的综合评价体系。采用AHP-DEMATEL模型确定主观赋权;采用EWM法确定客观赋权;采用M(·,⊕)算子进行模糊运算,确定评价结果。【结果】结果显示:鄂尔多斯市2011—2021年水资源承载力大部分为Ⅲ级,属于临界超载水平,其中2012年、2016年、2021年水资源承载力等级上升至Ⅱ级,属于弱可承载水平。【结论】影响鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力的主要因素是当地水资源量、经济用水效率、居民节水意识、生态用水补给。2011—2021年鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力整体上呈现出波动上升趋势;EWM-AHP-DEMATEL模型确定的权重更加全面客观。

江西省水资源可持续利用水平及其障碍因素

[目的]评估江西省水资源可持续利用水平,分析其主要障碍因素,为该区域水资源治理政策优化提供理论参考。[方法]以DPSIR模型为框架,构建包括29项二级指标的江西省水资源可持续利用评价指标体系,运用熵权-TOPSIS评估江西省水资源可持续利用水平变化趋势,并利用障碍度诊断法识别阻碍水资源可持续利用的主要障碍因子。[结果]江西省2011—2020年水资源可持续利用水平,除2013和2018年外,呈逐年上升趋势,2015年后水资源可持续利用平均水平(0.375 8)较2015年前(0.340 8)提高约10.15%。主要障碍因子包括废水治理设施处理能力、水资源总量、地表水调蓄能力、废水治理设施数、人均GDP等。[结论]较低经济发展与科学技术水平所导致的治理投入不足与治理效率低下问题,依然阻碍着江西省水资源可持续利用。建议水资源治理政策应从坚持“一河一策”,注重创新技术,升级产业结构,建立政策共同体等方面进行优化。

基于组合赋权—云模型的珠江三角洲水资源可持续性动态评价

为综合评价区域水资源可持续性状况,构建基于水资源-社会经济-生态环境复合系统的区域水资源可持续性评价体系,采用投影寻踪模型和云模型合理确定各指标的综合权重,引入正态云模型确定指标隶属度,建立基于组合赋权-云模型的区域水资源可持续性评价模型对珠江三角洲9座城市的水资源可持续性状况进行动态评价。结果表明:2007-2020年珠江三角洲城市群水资源可持续性状况整体呈上升趋势,到2020年已处于较好水平;区域内部水资源可持续状况呈现东部城市优于西部城市、南部近海岸城市优于远海岸城市的空间分布格局;各子系统之间可持续性等级不和谐,生态环境子系统发展水平较好,水资源子系统、社会经济子系统是造成珠江三角洲城市群水资源可持续性状况存在空间差异的主要因素。

基于模糊综合评判模型的黑河中游水资源承载力评价

评价黑河中游水资源承载力对促进该区域水资源的高效利用并推动经济可持续发展具有重要意义。为此,选取10个主要评价指标,并采用模糊综合评判模型定量分析了黑河中游2000~2020年水资源承载力动态变化状况。结果表明,黑河中游水资源承载力综合评分值在0.3~0.5之间,其中最高值出现在2020年,达到0.471,整体水资源承载力处于中级阶段,即可承载状态。黑河中游应调整用水结构,加强发展节水型经济和生态环境保护,以提高水资源的合理高效利用。

四川省水资源生态足迹及可持续利用综合评价

水资源可持续利用评价是水资源可持续管理的重要手段。在分析水资源生态足迹和生态承载力时空变化的基础上,结合水资源生态足迹指标,以压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型为框架构建了水资源可持续利用评价指标体系,运用熵权法和综合指数法对四川省2010—2019年水资源利用水平进行综合评价。结果表明:2010—2019年,四川省人均水资源生态承载力呈“W”型变化,人均水资源生态盈余在时间上呈波动变化,空间上存在明显差异,呈西高东低分布。综合评价中压力指数、状态指数、响应指数分别呈下降、上升、上升趋势,综合评价指数在2015年最低(0.1096),2019年最高(0.2121)。研究显示,四川省水资源可持续利用状况有所改善,仍需提高生产、生活、生态环境用水账户的用水效率,进一步推进水资源可持续利用。

干旱区耕地资源与水资源空间演变测度研究——以新疆为例

为了解干旱区耕地资源与水资源协调发展特点,以干旱典型地区新疆为研究对象,基于新疆2007—2021年耕地资源与水资源相关数据,利用熵值法、综合评价测算模型以及耦合协调测算模型,构建新疆及各地州耕地资源与水资源综合评价指标体系与耦合协调度模型。结果表明:从时间序列上看,2007—2021年新疆耕地资源与水资源的时间序列综合协调指数呈波动式小幅增长趋势;新疆耕地资源与水资源耦合协调发展程度总体处于波动上升趋势,但两者的耦合关系水平较低,耦合协调度也呈现出较大波动的失调状态。从空间演变上看,新疆各地州耕地资源与水资源空间演变综合发展指数差异性较大,耦合关系较弱,耦合协调度整体较低,协调发展面临一定的压力,北疆整体协调度高于南疆、优于东疆,整体上呈现“南弱北强”“西强东弱”的协调发展差异。

基于三维水足迹模型的河南省水资源可持续利用水平评价

基于三维水足迹模型,以水生态赤字与盈余、水压力指数、水资源集约利用指数和水资源可持续指数4个指标构建水资源可持续利用水平指标评价体系,从时间上和空间上分析河南省的水资源可持续利用水平,并且利用对数平均迪氏指数分解法分析水足迹变化的驱动因素。结果表明:河南省水足迹由大到小为生产用水足迹、生活用水足迹和生态用水足迹,其中豫北和豫中各市的水足迹深度较大;河南省整体水资源可持续利用水平较差,其中豫北和豫中地区的水资源可持续利用水平最差;经济规模效应、人口规模效应对水足迹的变化具有正向驱动作用,而水足迹强度效率效应和水资源承载力效应具有负向驱动作用。

江西省水资源生态足迹评价与预测

为了定量评价江西省水资源生态安全的状况,采用水资源生态足迹模型、系统动力学法和情景分析法,通过构建江西省水资源利用系统动力学模型,设计了保持现状(JS1)、经济增长(JS2)、节约用水(JS3)、综合发展(JS4)4种发展情景,对现状(1999~2021年)和未来(2022~2050年)江西省水资源生态足迹进行评价与预测。结果表明:现状年份江西省水资源生态足迹和生态承载力均呈缓慢平稳上升趋势,水资源生态协调性较好,处于较安全的合理利用水平;未来年份4种发展情景下江西省水资源生态足迹呈增长趋势、水资源生态盈余呈下降趋势,除情景JS3外的其余情景均出现了水资源利用不安全的情况。经过比较,情景JS4具有较适中的水资源可持续利用评价指标,能够兼顾经济的发展和水资源的保护,是满足江西省水资源可持续利用的最佳情景。江西省在未来应采取节约用水、提高用水效率、合理调整产业结构等措施保证社会经济和水资源的可持续发展与利用。研究成果可为区域水资源可持续发展提供科学依据。

水资源总量约束条件下玛纳斯河流域绿洲水资源承载力研究

水资源承载力是衡量人水和谐的重要参照目标和尺度之一,分析和研究水资源承载力对指导区域经济社会可持续发展有重大意义。新疆兵团第八师作为天山北坡经济带重要城市,近年来随着区域工农业的发展加之水资源“三条红线”约束下水资源供水量的减少,导致区域用水供需问题日益尖锐。本文采用系统动力学模型与模糊综合评判法相结合,构建了玛纳斯河流域绿洲城市水资源承载力系统动力学模型,基于水资源总量约束设置现状延续型、高效节水型、环境保护型及综合发展型4种情景,对研究区水资源承载力历史状况(2013-2019年)和未来趋势(2020-2030年)进行评估和模拟预测。结果表明:在现状延续型发展下,区域水资源用水总量到2030年将超出水资源用水总量控制指标的50%;在高效节水型和环境保护型情景下,到2030年区域水资源承载值分别达到0.433和0.432,增长幅度较小;在综合发展型情景下,区域水资源承载力显著提高,到2030年增长至0.471,有效兼顾了水资源和环境保护及社会经济发展,为最佳方案。本文研究结果可为西北干旱区绿洲水资源和社会经济的可持续发展提供科学参考。

灌水和氮肥基追比对旱区马铃薯产量、水肥利用效率和酶活性影响评价

为探明水氮基追施用对马铃薯产量、灌溉水肥利用效率和土壤酶活性等方面的综合影响,以获取最优水氮基追施用方案。大田试验设置3个灌水水平W1(900 m^(3)/hm^(2))、W2(1350 m^(3)/hm^(2))和W3(1800 m^(3)/hm^(2))以及3个氮肥基追比水平F1(N_(2∶1))、F2(N_(1∶1))和F3(N1∶2),共9个处理,利用熵权TOPSIS法构建宁夏中部旱区马铃薯综合生长评价体系,并以高产、节水节肥为目标建立马铃薯水氮基追施交互响应数学模型。结果表明,灌水量和氮肥基追施对马铃薯单株产量、产量、iWUE(灌溉水利用效率)、PFP(肥料偏生产力)、土壤碱性磷酸酶、土壤蔗糖酶均影响显著;利用熵权TOPSIS法建立马铃薯综合评价体系,得到最优综合响应评分0.1761,即为A7处理(1800 m^(3)/hm^(2),N_(2∶1));由马铃薯综合生长对水氮基追施交互响应模型得出,水氮基追施单因素对马铃薯综合生长影响均呈开口向下的二次抛物线,水氮基追施交互影响显著。当施肥编码为-0.7723(基肥∶追肥=1.6553∶1)、灌水编码为0.6553(1697.535 m^(3)/hm^(2))时,综合评分最高。以综合评分0.16划分闭合区域得出马铃薯生产上最佳的灌水区间和氮肥的基追施比例分别为1440~1935 m^(3)/hm^(2)、1∶1~2.3∶1,此区间最有利于实现马铃薯水氮协同效应最优。

华昱矿区矿井水水质评价及零排放资源化利用

针对华昱矿区面临的生产、生活用水匮乏,水资源复用率低,严重制约矿区可持续发展的问题,提出将矿井水资源纳入区域水资源进行统一配置利用是解决该问题的关键。通过对五家沟煤矿、元宝湾煤矿和南阳坡煤矿22组矿井水水样进行水质分析,确定了区内矿井水的水质类型,将总硬度、氟化物、硫酸盐、亚硝酸盐、总铁和矿化度作为评价指标,构建水质评价模糊综合矩阵对区内矿井水水质进行评价。根据区内煤矿自身涌水和生产用水的实际情况,提出了“多井联动调配+井上下协同净化+分质供水+梯级利用+全复用”的水处理新模式。结果表明,区内矿井水为含悬浮物和高矿化度矿井水,矿井水水质级别为Ⅴ级,水质极差水样有20组,该类水样占比为90.90%,经深度处理后产水水质均达到了《地下水质量标准》(GB/T14848—2017)中的Ⅰ类标准,水资源利用新模式实施后,满足了各矿井不同用水的供水需求,实现了煤矿间的多井联动调配和零排放。