Concession period is a key factor in the arrangement of a build-operate-transfer(BOT) contract. This paper proposes a stochastic concession period model for infrastructure projects under a BOT scheme, which takes into...Concession period is a key factor in the arrangement of a build-operate-transfer(BOT) contract. This paper proposes a stochastic concession period model for infrastructure projects under a BOT scheme, which takes into account the impact of risks and the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. A hypothetical case is simulated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method to illustrate the proposed model. The results indicate that even for a project with the same estimations, the concession interval can be different and depends a lot on the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. The proposed model provides a more reasonable concession interval based on which a specific concession period can be obtained through negotiation between the two parties.展开更多
基金the Research Project Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of PRC(No.2011-123-22)Fund of China International Contractors Association
文摘Concession period is a key factor in the arrangement of a build-operate-transfer(BOT) contract. This paper proposes a stochastic concession period model for infrastructure projects under a BOT scheme, which takes into account the impact of risks and the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. A hypothetical case is simulated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method to illustrate the proposed model. The results indicate that even for a project with the same estimations, the concession interval can be different and depends a lot on the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. The proposed model provides a more reasonable concession interval based on which a specific concession period can be obtained through negotiation between the two parties.
