Mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model for stochastic monthly streamflow simulation

Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate Dvine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.

Application of inverse method to estimation of boundary conditions during investment casting simulation

Inverse method was used in single crystal superalloy DD6 processing simulation during solidification. Numerical modeling coupled with experiments has been used to estimate the interface heat transfer coefficient （IHTC） between the surface of slab casting and inner mold. Calculated temperature dependent values of IHTC were obtained from a numerical solution. The calculated temperatures agreed well with the measurement of cooling profile.

An enhanced image binarization method incorporating with Monte-Carlo simulation

We proposed an enhanced image binarization method.The proposed solution incorporates Monte-Carlo simulation into the local thresholding method to address the essential issues with respect to complex background,spatially-changed illumination,and uncertainties of block size in traditional method.The proposed method first partitions the image into square blocks that reflect local characteristics of the image.After image partitioning,each block is binarized using Otsu’s thresholding method.To minimize the influence of the block size and the boundary effect,we incorporate Monte-Carlo simulation into the binarization algorithm.Iterative calculation with varying block sizes during Monte-Carlo simulation generates a probability map,which illustrates the probability of each pixel classified as foreground.By setting a probability threshold,and separating foreground and background of the source image,the final binary image can be obtained.The described method has been tested by benchmark tests.Results demonstrate that the proposed method performs well in dealing with the complex background and illumination condition.

Influence of Cooling Conditions in Casting Cu-Ni Alloy Based on Numerical Simulation

The most common and serious defect in Cu-Ni alloy casting is porosity. To solve the problem, accurate casting design and proper design of gating system are necessary. It can be predicted and designed by means of computer simulation of casting solidification. Based on the casting process of the Cu-Ni alloy, the simulation software of diathermanous—flowing—stress coupling ProCAST was used to simulate the Cu-Ni alloy solidification process about the defects and temperature field. By combining experimental results with the simulation results, the quality of casting on some cooling conditions were analyzed. Furthermore, a better cooling condition for solidification process of the Cu-Ni alloy was chosen to improve the quality of the casting. The simulation results indicate that the quality of Cu-Ni alloy casting is the best when it is on the cooling condition of the permanent mold with the insulated riser system.

Discrete element simulation of mechanical characteristic of conditioned sands in earth pressure balance shield tunneling

The discrete element method (DEM) was used to simulate the flow characteristic and strength characteristic of the conditioned sands in the earth pressure balance (EPB) tunneling. In the laboratory the conditioned sands were reproduced and the slump test and the direct shear test of the conditioned sands were implemented. A DEM equivalent model that can simulate the macro mechanical characteristic of the conditioned sands was proposed,and the corresponding numerical models of the slump test and the shear test were established. By selecting proper DEM model parameters,the errors of the slump values between the simulation results and the test results are in the range of 10.3%-14.3%,and the error of the curves between the shear displacement and the shear stress calculated with the DEM simulation is 4.68%-16.5% compared with that of the laboratory direct shear test. This illustrates that the proposed DEM equivalent model can approximately simulate the mechanical characteristics of the conditioned sands,which provides the basis for further simulation of the interaction between the conditioned soil and the chamber pressure system of the EPB machine.

Analysis of typhoon wind hazard in Shenzhen City by Monte-Carlo Simulation

As one of the most serious natural disasters,many typhoons affect southeastern China every year.Taking Shenzhen,a coastal city in southeast China as an example,we employed a Monte-Carlo simulation to generate a large number of virtual typhoons for wind hazard analysis.By analyzing 67-year historical typhoons data from 1949 to 2015 using the Best Track Dataset for Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific recorded by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,China Meteorological Administration(CMASTI),typhoon characteristic parameters were extracted and optimal statistical distributions established for the parameters in relation to Shenzhen.We employed the Monte-Carlo method to sample each distribution to generate the characteristic parameters of virtual typhoons.In addition,the Yah Meng(YM)wind field model was introduced,and the sensitivity of the YM model to several parameters discussed.Using the YM wind field model,extreme wind speeds were extracted from the virtual typhoons.The extreme wind speeds for different return periods were predicted and compared with the current structural code to provide improved wind load information for wind-resistant structural design.

Physical simulation of hydrodynamic conditions in high rank coalbed methane reservoir formation

In order to select highly productive and enriched areas of high rank coalbed methane reservoirs, based on hydrologic geology as one of the main factors controlling coalbed methane （CBM） reservoir formations, the effect of hydrodynamic forces controlling CBM reservoir formations was studied by a physical simulation experiment in which we used CBM reservoir simulation facilities. The hydrodynamic conditions of high coal rank reservoirs in the Qinshui basin were analyzed. Our experiment shows the following results： under strong hydrodynamic alternating action, 6C~ of coalbed methane reservoir changed from the start at -2.95% ~ -3.66%, and the lightening process occurred in phases; the CI-I4 volume reduced from 96.35% to 12.42%; the CO2 vo- lume decreased from 0.75% in sample 1 to 0.68% in sample 2, then rose to 1.13% in sample 3; the N2 volume changed from 2.9% in sample 1 to 86.45% in sample 3. On one hand, these changes show the complexity of CBM reservoir formation; on the other hand, they indicate that strong hydrodynamic actions have an unfavorable impact on CBM reservoir formation. It was found that the gas volume and hydrodynamic intensity were negatively correlated and low hydrodynamic flow conditions might result in highly productive and enriched areas of high rank CBM.

Process Optimization of Cu-en/AP Composite Microspheres Preparation by Electrostatic Spray Method Based on ANSYS Simulation

To investigate the process optimizationof Cu-en/AP composite microspheres preparation via electrostatic spraying,and to reveal the effects of droplet properties and flow rate variations on the experimental results during the electrostatic spraying process,the prepared process parameters of Cu-en/AP composite microspheres by electrostatic spray method under the orthogonal experimental design simulated by ANSYS(Fluent).The influence of flow rate,solvent ratio,and solid mass on the experimental results is examined using a controlled variable method.The results indicate that under the conditions of a flow rate of 2.67×10^(-3)kg/s an acetone-to-deionized water ratio of 1.5∶1.0,and a solid mass of 200 mg,the theoretical particle size of the composite microspheres can reach e nanoscale.Droplet trajectories in the electric field remain stable without significant deviation.The simulation results show that particle diameter decreases with increasing flow rate,with the trend leveling off around a flow rate of 1×10^(-3)kg/s.As the solvent ratio increases(with higher acetone content),particle diameter initially decreases,reaching a minimum around a ratio of 1.5∶1.0 before gradually increasing.Increasing the solid mass also reduces the particle diameter,with a linear increase in diameter observed at around 220 mg.Cu-en/AP composite microspheres with nanoscale dimensions were confirmed under these conditions by the final SEM images.

Monte-Carlo Simulation of Surface Crack Growth Rate for Offshore Structural Steel E36-Z35

The Monte- Carlo method is used to simulate the surface fatigue crack growth rate for offshore structural steel E36-Z35, and to determine the distributions and relevance of the parameters in the Paris equation. By this method, the time and cost of fatigue crack propagation testing can be reduced. The application of the method is demonstrated by use of four sets of fatigue crack propagation data for offshore structural steel E36-Z35. A comparison of the test data with the theoretical prediction for surface crack growth rate shows the application of the simulation method to the fatigue crack propagation tests is successful.

FEM simulation and experimental verification of roll forming and springback process under complex contact conditions

The application of advanced high strength steel （AHSS） has an important significance in the development of the lightweight of automobile, but the parts made of AHSS usually have defects, such as fracture and large amount of springback, etc. In this paper, a model of multi-pass roll form- ing and springback process of AHSS is established with finite element software ABAQUS. Then a roll forming experiment is performed, and simulation and experimental results have been compared and analyzed. The model is established under complex contact conditions, including self-contact condi- tion. The results shows that during the process of sheet bending, large Mises stresses appear at ben- ding corners. The smaller the bending radius is, the larger the Mises stress and strain are. Thick- ness of sheet metal changes exceeds a certain limit, the differently if the bending radius is different. When the bending radius change tendency of the sheet thickness turns from increase to decrease.

Numerical simulation of groundwater under complex karst conditions and the prediction of roadway gushing in a coal mine:a case study in the Guang'an Longtan Reservoir in Sichuan Province, China

Numerical simulation of groundwater in karst areas has long been restricted by the difficulty of generalizing the hydrogeological conditions of reservoirs and of determining the relevant parameters due to the anisotropy and discontinuity of the karst water-bearing media in these areas. In this study, we used the Guang'an Longtan Coal mine in Sichuan as an example, and generalized the complex hydrogeological conditions in the reservoir area. A finite element numerical flow model was used to simulate current and future scenarios of roadway gushing at the bottom of the coal mine at pile number 1 + 700 m. The results show that the roadway section corresponding to valleys has a gushing quantity of 4323.8–4551.25 m^3/d before impoundment. Modeled water inflow after impoundment increased to 1.6 times the water inflow before impoundment, which threatens the impoundment as well as the roadway's normal operation. Therefore, roadway processing measures are needed to guarantee the safety of the impoundment and of the mining operation.

Principle of Line Configuration and Monte-Carlo Simulation for Shared Multi-Channel System

Based on the steady-state solution of finite-state birth and death process, the principle of line configuration for shared multi-channel system is analyzed. Call congestion ratio equation and channel utilization ratio equation are deduced, and visualized data analysis is presented. The analy-sis indicates that, calculated with the proposed equations, the overestimate for call congestion ratio and channel utilization ratio can be rectified, and thereby the cost of channels can be saved by 2000 in a small system.With MATLAB programming, line configuration methods are provided. In order to generally and intuitively show the dynamic running of the system, and to analyze,promote and improve it, the system is simulated using M/M/n/n/m queuing model and Monte-Carlo method. In addition, the simulation validates the correctness of the theoretical analysis and optimizing configuration method.

Absorbing Boundary Conditions for Simulating Water Waves Near Solid Bodies

The objective of this paper is to present a new method for designing absorbing or non-reflective boundary conditions (ABC) or (NRBC), illustrated by the case study of the modelling of a solid body in water, specifically the capillary gravity waves generated by its motion at the surface. The study analyses the flow of an inviscid, barotropic, and compressible fluid around the stationary solid body. The dynamic behaviour of the fluid is analysed using a two-dimensional coupled Neumann-Kelvin model extended with capillarity and inertia terms. For computational purposes, it is necessary to truncate the unbounded spatial domain with artificial boundaries and then introduce appropriate absorbing boundary conditions. The propagation of short wavelength waves in a convective fluid medium with significant differences in properties between the interior and the surface of the fluid presents a number of difficulties in the design of these conditions. The results are illustrated numerically and commented upon.

A study on periodic boundary condition in direct numerical simulation for gas–solid flow

Direct numerical simulation(DNS) of gas–solid flow at high resolution has been carried out by coupling the lattice Boltzmann method(LBM) for gas flow and the discrete element method(DEM) for solid particles. However,the body force periodic boundary condition(FPBC) commonly used to cut down the huge computational cost of such simulation has faced accuracy concerns. In this study, a novel two-region periodic boundary condition(TPBC) is presented to remedy this problem, with the flow driven in the region with body force and freely evolving in the other region. With simulation cases for simple circulating fluidized bed risers, the validity and advantages of TPBC are demonstrated with more reasonable heterogeneity of the particle distribution as compared to the corresponding case with FPBC.

A Molecular Dynamics Simulation for Periodic Boundary Condition in the Bending Process of Ag／Ni Composite Interfaces

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Assessment of Multiple Working Condition System Reliability with Agent-Based Simulation Method

The mission reliability assessment plays a great role in logistics planning and supporting resource optimization of complex system.But the current problem,which is difficult to solve,is how to model and analyze the characters of system reliability under the complex mission profile.In order to solve the problem,an agentbased simulation method was used to assess reliability for complex systems with various random working conditions.A multi-working condition simulation agent(MA)was designed and used to simulate the random transferring process of working conditions of system,and it cooperated with system simulation agents(SAs)and unit simulation agents(UAs)to realize system mission reliability(MR)simulation.Through simulation experiments,effect of multiple working conditions mission on the reliability of system was analyzed by comparing with the basic reliability condition.Feasibility and efficiency of the method were proved through simulation experiments of the case system.The research result provides a viable and useful method and a solution for MR analysis and assessment of complex systems in multi-working conditions,which can help to evaluate the reliability of operating system orienting to the practical mission and environment,and it is meaningful for the reliability analysis and the design of complex systems.

Study on the Relationship between Lamellar Spacing and Growth Rate inthe Regular Eutectic Growthby Monte-Carlo Simulation

A modified Monte-Carlo(MC) method to simulate the regular growth of binary eutectic alloys is presented. It is found that the growth rate has a linear dependence on the chemical potential difference between the solid and liquid; the relation between the lamellar spacing A and growth rate R accords well with the prediction of Jackson-Hunt(JH) theory unless the growth rate is very low.

Turbulent Inlet Conditions Modeling using Large-eddy Simulations

Turbulence is a phenomenon which presents peculiarities when it is experimented or simulated.This occurs due to its complexity and high sensibility to the inlet conditions of the turbulent flow fields,as well as the presence of a large range of time and length scales.A simplification for this situation is obtained with the use of approximations and turbulence models.In the present work,the Largeeddy Simulations methodology was applied,aiming the modeling of the previously mentioned complexity,which consists in using a filter to resolve the large scales while the remaining scales were determined by classical and dynamic Smagorinsky models.Three different approximations for the inlet conditions were applied:white noise,Random Flow Generation(RFG)and Synthetic Eddy Method(SEM).It was possible to realize that the use of the dynamic Smagorinky model and the RFG or SEM methodologies resulted in a better characterization of the studied flow.

Active learning accelerated Monte-Carlo simulation based on the modified K-nearest neighbors algorithm and its application to reliability estimations

This paper proposes an active learning accelerated Monte-Carlo simulation method based on the modified K-nearest neighbors algorithm.The core idea of the proposed method is to judge whether or not the output of a random input point can be postulated through a classifier implemented through the modified K-nearest neighbors algorithm.Compared to other active learning methods resorting to experimental designs,the proposed method is characterized by employing Monte-Carlo simulation for sampling inputs and saving a large portion of the actual evaluations of outputs through an accurate classification,which is applicable for most structural reliability estimation problems.Moreover,the validity,efficiency,and accuracy of the proposed method are demonstrated numerically.In addition,the optimal value of K that maximizes the computational efficiency is studied.Finally,the proposed method is applied to the reliability estimation of the carbon fiber reinforced silicon carbide composite specimens subjected to random displacements,which further validates its practicability.

MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION FOR ATOMIC DEPOSITION OF AMORPHOUS ELECTROLESS Ni_(80)P_(20) COATING

Atomic growth process and structure of Amorphous Electroless Coating have been studied, using Monte-Carlo simulation method. The simulation results of amorphous Ni80P20 coating show that PDFs are in accordance with practical values. The migrations of adatoms in coating's growth are different from that of solidification of amorphous materials. In some cases, the migrated adatoms in the process of growth of amorphous coating are not enough to occupy all vacancies and traps, so the amorphous coating is micro-porous. The immovable probability k and the largest migration distance of adatoms, which lie on the electroless bath components, affect the PDF, volume density and microporosity remarkably.