High-Speed Railway Train Timetable Conflict Prediction Based on Fuzzy Temporal Knowledge Reasoning

Trains are prone to delays and deviations from train operation plans during their operation because of internal or external disturbances. Delays may develop into operational conflicts between adjacent trains as a result of delay propagation, which may disturb the arrangement of the train operation plan and threaten the operational safety of trains. Therefore, reliable conflict prediction results can be valuable references for dispatchers in making more efficient train operation adjustments when conflicts occur. In contrast to the traditional approach to conflict prediction that involves introducing random disturbances, this study addresses the issue of the fuzzification of time intervals in a train timetable based on historical statistics and the modeling of a high-speed railway train timetable based on the concept of a timed Petri net. To measure conflict prediction results more comprehensively, we divided conflicts into potential conflicts and certain conflicts and defined the judgment conditions for both. Two evaluation indexes, one for the deviation of a single train and one for the possibility of conflicts between adjacent train operations, were developed using a formalized computation method. Based on the temporal fuzzy reasoning method, with some adjustment, a new conflict prediction method is proposed, and the results of a simulation example for two scenarios are presented. The results prove that conflict prediction after fuzzy processing of the time intervals of a train timetable is more reliable and practical and can provide helpful information for use in train operation adjustment, train timetable improvement, and other purposes.

Predictive Model to Evaluate Accommodation of Conflict Management Strategies and Board Performance of Oil and Gas Companies in Port Harcourt

This paper evaluates accommodation of conflict management strategies and board performances in oil and gas sector.The study details the re­flection of effectiveness,efficiency and productivity as the answer to thorough efficiency in accommodation of conflict management in oil and gas sector,these parameters in the system express their efficacy on con­flict management in these multinationals,this implies that for thorough efficiency,these variables must work simultaneously for effective and efficient in structural organization that can be a leading multinational sector in oil and gas environment.The study observed Linearized result from graphical representation explaining predominant lower efficiency and little higher efficiency in accommodation of conflict management in oil and gas companies.These experiences from the study monitor the system from generated simulation values that describe the growth rates in exponential phase of accommodation conflict strategic management.Despite exponential phase the results experienced lower parameters,when comparing on its variations showing its poor efficiency as observed in the study.Few periods observed higher effective accommodation on conflict strategic management.The developed model stimulation values were subjected to validation and both parameters generated favourable fits correlation,the study expressed the deficiency on accommodation of conflict management strategy thus developed models that can monitor the fluctuation and progressive state of accommodation on conflict manage­ment strategy,it defines the reflection of other parameters that express the behaviour of the system in terms of conceptual approach to monitor these type of strategic management in oil and gas companies.