Meat consumption in China and its impact on international food security: Status quo, trends, and policies

1.Background China has seen drastic nutrition transition and food structure change with rapid economic growth in the past three decades.Specifically,the traditional fibre-dominated food system is being replaced by a western-style meat-dominated diet（Yu and Abler 2009;Tian and Yu 2013）.In traditional China meat was regarded as a rarity and normally consumed during festivals,now it has become daily food for most Chinese consumers.

Economic growth and nutrition transition: an empirical analysis comparing demand elasticities for foods in China and Russia

This study provides empirical evidence on the link between economic growth and nutrition transition in two emerging economies, China and Russia. Both countries have experienced rising average incomes, accompanied by an increasing rate of nutrition-related chronic diseases in recent years. Given the regional heterogeneity between these two countries, we analyze the extent to which income growth as a major driver of nutrition transition has a significant effect on the consumption of different food aggregates and how these effects differ between Chinese and Russian consumers. Our results indicate that with increasing household incomes over time the demand for carbohydrates decreases, while the demand for meat and dairy products, as well as fruits increases. This is a development generally known as nutrition transition. Further, we estimate a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System（QUAIDS） for nine different food aggregates for China and Russia. Our results indicate that in both countries all food aggregates have positive expenditure elasticities and are thus normal goods. Moreover, our results indicate that in 2008/2009 meat is still a luxury good in China yet a necessity good in Russia. For 2009, the highest own-price elasticities in China are found for non-meat protein sources and dairy products. Within the meat group, beef, poultry and mutton have the highest price elasticities in China. In Russia, the milk and dairy group, together with the vegetable group, is the most price-elastic food group in 2008. In line with the definition of a nutrition transition, our overall results underscore the finding that income growth in China and Russia tends to increase the demand for animal-based products much stronger than, for example, the demand for carbohydrates. Despite being a positive signal for problems of malnutrition in rural China, this trend of increasing meat consumption might further increase the incidence of chronic diseases in urban areas since there is convincing scientific evidence that increasing meat consumption, especially red and processed meat, is associated with an increased risk of chronic diseases.

TRANSFORMATION OF FOOD SYSTEMS:HOW CAN IT BE FINANCED?

The paper provides a review of the work on financing the transformation of food systems done by the author and colleagues at IFPRI.The analysis discusses the objectives of that transformation(related to the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement)and shows estimates of the costs involved.Then it presents an evaluation of the existing financial flows and their potential scaling up,using a broader view of six main flows involved:two that are internal to food systems(consumer expenditures on food and related items,which are the main source of revenue(as sales)for the variety of actors on the supply side of food systems);and four that are external(international development funds,public budgets,banking systems,and capital markets).The paper notes that although current funding does not reach the scale needed to finance the desired transformation of food systems,there are sufficient potential financial resources available in the aggregate to achieve such transformation.However,to mobilize the existing potential funds the paper discussed several things that need to be done,starting with an adequate macroeconomic and overall incentive framework to guide both the internal flows related to consumption and production decisions,as well as the four external ones.The paper also suggested other possible interventions to mobilize,reorient,and increase the financial flows to the desired objectives.It further noted that the costs and financing,which in the paper were discussed at the global level,must be estimated at the country level,as part of the design and implementation of adequate national plans for equitable,healthy and sustainable food systems.