Validation for a tropical belt version of WRF: sensitivity tests on radiation and cumulus convection parameterizations

Version 3.9 of WRF-ARW is run with a tropical belt configuration for a period from 2012 to 2016 in this study. The domain covers the entire tropics between 45°S and 45°N with a spatial resolution of about 45 km. In order to verify two radiation schemes and four cumulus convection schemes, eight experiments are performed with different combinations of physics parameterization schemes. The results show that eight experiments present reasonable spatial patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation in boreal summer, with the spatial correlation coefficient (COR) between simulated and observed temperature exceeding 0.95, and that between simulated and observed precipitation ranges from 0.65 to 0.82. The four experiments with the RRTMG radiation scheme show a better performance than the other four experiments with the CAM radiation scheme. In the four experiments with the RRTMG radiation scheme, the COR between simulated and observed surface air temperature is about 0.98, and that between simulated and observed precipitation ranges from 0.76 to 0.82. Comparatively, the two experiments using the new Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme can simulate better diurnal variation of precipitation in boreal summer than the other six experiments. In particular, for the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land and ocean, the experiment using the RRTMG radiation scheme and the new Tiedtke cumulus convection scheme shows that the peaks of precipitation rate appear at 0400 LST and 1600 LST, in agreement with observation.

Comparative Studies of Different Mesoscale Convection Parameterization Schemes in the Simulation of Mei-Yu Front Heavy Rain

The mei-yu front heavy rainstorms occurred over Nanjing on 3 5 and 8 9 July 2003 and were simulated in this paper using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRFv3.1) with various mesoscale convection parameterization schemes (MCPSs). The simulations show that the temporal and spatial evolution and distribution of rainstorms can be modeled; however, there was incongruity between the comparative simulations of four different MCPSs and the observed data. These disparities were exhibited in the simulations of both the 24-hour surface rainfall total and the hourly precipitation rate. Further analysis revealed that the discrepancies of vertical velocity and the convective vorticity vector (CVV) between the four simulations were attributed to the deviation of rainfall values. In addition, the simulations show that the mid-scale convection, particularly the mesoscale convection system (MCS) formation, can be well simulated with the proper mesoscale convection parameterization schemes and may be a crucial factor of the mei-yu front heavy rainstorm. These results suggest that, in an effort to enhance simulation and prediction of heavy rainfall and rainstorms, subsequent studies should focus on the development and improvement of MCPS.

Parameterized thermal model of a mixed mantle convection

Simple parameterized models, either whole mantle convection or layered mantleconvection, cannot explain the tectonic characteristics of the Earth's evolution history, therefore a mixed mantle convection model has been carried out in this paper. We introduce a time-dependent parameter F, which denotes the ratio betWeen the mantle material involved in whole mantle convection and the material of the entire mantle, and introduce a local Rayleigh number Raloc as well as two critical numbers Ra1 and Ra2. These parameters are used to describe the stability of the phase boundary between the upper and lower mantle. The result shows that the mixed mantle convection model is able to simulate the episodic tectonic evolution of the Earth.

Impact of Revised Trigger and Closure of the Double-Plume Convective Parameterization on Precipitation Simulations over East Asia

A double-plume convective parameterization scheme is revised to improve the precipitation simulation of a global model(Global-to-Regional Integrated Forecast System;GRIST).The improvement is achieved by considering the effects of large-scale dynamic processes on the trigger of deep convection.The closure,based on dynamic CAPE,is improved accordingly to allow other processes to consume CAPE under the more restricted convective trigger condition.The revised convective parameterization is evaluated with a variable-resolution model setup(110–35 km,refined over East Asia).The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations demonstrate that the revised convective parameterization substantially delays the daytime precipitation peaks over most land areas,leading to an improved simulated diurnal cycle,evidenced by delayed and less frequent afternoon precipitation.Meanwhile,changes to the threshold of the trigger function yield a small impact on the diurnal amplitude of precipitation because of the consistent setting of dCAPE-based trigger and closure.The simulated mean precipitation remains reasonable,with some improvements evident along the southern slopes of the Tibetan Plateau.The revised scheme increases convective precipitation at the lower levels of the windward slope and reduces the large-scale precipitation over the upper slope,ultimately shifting the rainfall peak southward,which is in better agreement with the observations.

Performance of Convective Parameterization Schemes in Asia Using RegCM:Simulations in Three Typical Regions for the Period 1998–2002

This study discusses the sensitivity of convective parameterization schemes（CPSs） in the Regional Climate Model（version 4.3）（Reg CM4.3） over East/South Asia. The simulations using different CPSs in Reg CM are compared to discover a suitable scheme for this region, as the performance of different schemes is greatly influenced by region and seasonality. Over Southeast China and the Bay of Bengal, the Grell scheme exhibits the lowest RMSEs of summer precipitation compared to observed data. Moreover, the Emanuel over land and Grell over ocean（ELGO） scheme enhances the simulation, in comparison with any single CPS（Grell/Emanuel） over Western Ghats, Sri Lanka, and Southeast India. Over the Huang–Huai–Hai Plain（3H） and Tibetan Plateau（TP） regions of China, the Tiedtke scheme simulates the more reasonable summer precipitation with high correlation coefficient and comparable amplitude. Especially, it reproduces a minimum convective precipitation bias of 8 mm d^-1and the lowest RMSEs throughout the year over East/South Asia. Furthermore, for seasonal variation of precipitation, the Tiedtke scheme results are closer to the observed data over the 3H and TP regions. However, none of the CPSs is able to simulate the seasonal variation over North Pakistan（NP）. In comparison with previous research, the results of this study support the Grell scheme over South Asia. However, the Tiedtke scheme shows superiority for the 3H, TP and NP regions. The thicker PBL, less surface latent heat flux, the unique ability of deep convection and the entrainment process in the Tiedtke scheme are responsible for reducing the wet bias.

The Sensitivity of Numerical Simulation of the East Asian Monsoon to Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes

In this paper, a 5-level spectral AGCM is used to examine the sensitivity of simulated East Asian summer monsoon circulation and rainfall to cumulus parameterization schemes. From the simulated results of East Asian monsoon circulations and rainfalls during the summers of 1987 and 1995, it is shown that the Kuo′s convective parameterization scheme is more suitable for the numerical simulation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation. This may be due to that the cumulus in the rainfall system is not strong in the East Asian monsoon region.

Explicit and Parameterized Episodes of Warm-Season Precipitation over the Continental United States

This paper describes explicit and parameterized simulations of midsummer precipitation over the continental United States for two distinct episodes： moderate large-scale forcing and weak forcing. The objective is to demonstrate the capability of explicit convection at currently affordable grid-resolution and compare it with parameterized realizations. Under moderate forcing, 3-kin grid-resolution explicit simulations represent rainfall coherence remarkably well. The observed daily convective generation near the Continental Divide and the subsequent organization and propagation are reproduced qualitatively. The propagation speed, zonal extent and duration of the rainfall streaks compare favorably with their observed counterparts, although the streak frequency is underestimated. The simulations at -10-km grid-resolution applying conventional convective parameterization schemes also replicate reasonably well the diurnal convective regeneration in moderate forcing. The performance of the 3-km grid-resolution model demonstrates the potential of -1-km-resolution explicit cloud-resolving models for the prediction of warm season precipitation for moderately forced environments. In weak forcing conditions, however, predictions of precipitation coherence and diurnal variability are much poorer. This suggests that an even finer resolution explicit model is required to adequately treat convective initiation and upscale organization typical of the warm season over the continental U.S.

Preliminary Evaluation of a Revised Zhang-McFarlane Convection Scheme Using the NCAR CCM3 GCM

This study investigates the interaction between convection, clouds, and the large-scale circulation. By examining the sensitivity of the large-scale fields to a modification of the convective parameterization scheme in the NCAR CCM3, we show that the convective parameterization has a strong impact on the temporal characteristics of the large-scale circulation and clouds. When Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the atmosphere is used to close the convective parameterization, the simulated convection is continuous, and lacks the observed intermittence. When the CAPE change due to the large-scale forcing in the free troposphere is used, the simulated temporal behavior of convection is in much better agreement with the observations. We attribute this improvement to the enhanced coupling between convection and the large-scale forcing in the convective parameterization.

An analogy-based method for strong convection forecasts in China using GFS forecast data

This paper describes an analogue-based method for producing strong convection forecasts with conventional outputs from numerical models.The method takes advantage of the good performance of numerical models in predicting synoptic-scale weather situations.It calculates the convective parameters as predictors to detect the favorable-occurrence environment of strong convections.Times in the past when the forecast parameters are most similar to those forecast at the current time are identified by searching a large historical numerical dataset.The observed strong convection situations corresponding to those most similar times are then used to form strong convection forecasts for the current time.The method is applied as a postprocess of the NCEP Global Forecast System(GFS)model.The historical dataset in which the analogous situations are sought comprises two years of summer(June–September)GFS 6-to 48-h forecasts.The strong convection forecast is then generated every 6 h over most regions of China,provided the availability of strong convection observations.The results show that the method performs well in predicting strong convections in different regions of China.Through comparison with another postprocessing strong convection forecast method,it is shown that the convective-parameter threshold problem can be solved by employing the analogy method,which considers the local historical conditions of strong convection occurrence.

Evaluation of Heavy Rainfall Model Forecasts over the Korean Peninsula Using Different Physical Parameterization Schemes and Horizontal Resolution

In this study, the accuracy of a Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model （PSU/NCAR MM5） for predicting heavy summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula was investigated. A total of 1800 simulations were performed using this model for 30 heavy rainfall events employing four cumulus parameterization schemes （CPS）, two grid-scale resolvable precipitation schemes （GRS）, and two planetary boundary layer （PBL） schemes in three model resolutions （90 km, 30 km, and 10 km）. The heavy rainfall events were mesoscale convective systems developed under the influence of mid-latitude baroclinic systems with low-level moisture transport from the ocean. The predictive accuracy for maximum rainfall was approximately 80% for 10-km resolution and was 60% for 30-km resolution. The predictive accuracy for rainfall position extended to ～150 km from the observed position for both resolutions. Simulated rainfall was most sensitive to CPS, then to PBL schemes, and then to GRS. In general, the Grell （GR） scheme and the Anthes and Kuo （AK） scheme showed a better prediction capability for heavy rainfall than did the Betts-Miller （BM） scheme and the Kain-Fritsch （KF） scheme. The GR scheme also performed well in the 24-h and 12-h precipitation predictions： the parameterized convective rainfall in GR is directly related to synoptic-scale forcing. The models without CPS performed better for rainfall amounts but worse for rainfall position than those with CPS. The MM5 model demonstrated substantial predictive capacity using synoptic-scale initial conditions and lateral boundary data because heavy summer rainfall in Korea occurs in a strong synoptic-scale environment.

A New Ensemble HDG Method for Parameterized Convection Diffusion PDEs

A new second order time stepping ensemble hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin method for parameterized convection diffusion PDEs with various initial and boundary conditions,body forces,and time depending coefficients is developed.For ensemble solutions in L_(∞)(0,T;L^(2)(Ω)),a superconvergent rate with respect to the freedom degree of the globally coupled unknowns for all the polynomials of degree k≥0 is established.The results of numerical experiments are consistent with the theoretical findings.

A SIMPLE PROGNOSTIC CLOSURE ASSUMPTION TO DEEP CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION:I

In this work,the problem of dependency of the predicted rainfall upon the grid-size in mesoscale numerical weather prediction models is addressed.We argue that this problem is due to (i) the violation of the quasi-equilibrium assump- tion,which is underlying most existing convective parameterization schemes,and states that the convective activity may be considered in instantaneous equilibrium with the larger-scale forcing;and (ii) the violation of the hydrostatic approx- imation,made in most mesoscale models,which would induce too large-scale circulation in occurrence of strong con- vection.On the contrary,meso-β and meso-α scale models,i.e.models with horizontal grid size ranging from 10 to 100 km,have a capacity to resolve motions with characteristic scales close to the ones of the convective motions.We hypothesize that a possible way to eliminate this problem is (i) to take a prognostic approach to the parameterization of deep convection,whereby the quantities that describe the activity of convection are no longer diagnosed from the instan- taneous value of the large-scale forcing,but predicted by time-dependent equations,that integrate the large-scale forc- ing over time;(ii)to introduce a mesoscale parameter which varies systematically with the grid size of the numerical model in order to damp large-scale circulation usually too induced when the grid size becomes smaller (from 100 km to 10 kin).We propose an implementation of this idea in the frame of one existing scheme,already tested and used for a long time at the French Weather Service.The results of the test through one-dimensional experiments with the Phase Ⅲ of GATE data are reported in this paper;and the ones on its implementation in the three-dimensional model with the OSCAR data will be reported in a companion paper.

A SIMPLE PROGNOSTIC CLOSURE ASSUMPTION TO DEEP CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION:Ⅱ

A series of 3D predictions,dealing with the development of a heavy storm observed during the OSCAR experiment, were carried out by utilizing the PERIDOT model,and introducing alternatively the cumulus parameterization scheme of Bougeault (1985) and the prognostic one (Chen,1989;Chen and Bougeault,1993),with three different grid sizes: 160 km,80 km,40 km.The feasibility of the new prognostic scheme and its improvement on the problem of dependency of the predicted rainfall upon the grid size of the numerical model were verified by comparison of the rainfall observed and those predicted. The results demonstrate that,in general,the predicted rainfall increases when the grid size decreases for both diagnostic and prognostic schemes.However,with the new prognostic scheme,the numerical model is capable,on the one hand,for the larger grid sizes,to increase the rainfall,which is under-estimated with the scheme of Bougeault (1985);on the another hand,for the smaller grid sizes,to reduce the rainfall,which is usually over-estimated.In other word,there is an obvious improvement on the problem under study.

Development of an Integrated Vertical-Slantwise Convective Parameterization Scheme and Its Associated Numerical Experiments

An integrated vertical-slantwise convective parameterization scheme, based on the vertical Kuo-Anthes and the slantwise Nordeng convective parameterization schemes, is introduced into the MM5 model. By employing the MM5 model with the proposed scheme, numerical simulations of a snowstorm event that occurred over southern China on 28-29 January 2008 and of Typhoon Haitang （2005） are conducted. The results indicate that during the snowstorm event, the atmosphere was convectively stable in the vertical direction but with conditional symmetric instability （CSI） in the lower troposphere, and when the area of CSI developed and extended to upper levels, strong rising motion occurred and triggered the release of large amount of energy, producing enhanced convective precipitation with the total precipitation much closer to the observation. The development and strengthening of CSI corresponded to changes in the intensity of snowfall, convergence, and ascending motions of air, revealing that CSI was responsible for the initiation and growth of the snowstorm. The results from a 72-h explicit simulation of Typhoon Haitang indicate that CSI occurred mainly at lower levels with a well-defined spiral structure, and it tended to have a larger impact on the intensity of typhoon than on its track. The minimum pressure at the typhoon center for the 72-h runs with the integrated vertical-slantwise convective parameterization scheme was on average 3 hPa （maximum 8 hPa） lower than that from the runs with only the vertical cumulus parameterization scheme. Introducing the influence of CSI into the model has improved the warm core structure at the middle and upper levels of the typhoon, with stronger and persistent upward motions causing increased precipitation, and the latent heat released through convection in turn made the typhoon develop further.

Influences of Two Convective Schemes on the Radiative Energy Budget in GAMIL1.0

The Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG version 1.0（GAMIL1.0） is used to investigate the impacts of different convective schemes on the radiative energy budget.The two convective schemes are Zhang and McFarlance（1995）/Hack（1994）（ZM） and Tiedtke（1989）/Nordeng（1994）（TN）.Two simulations are performed：one with the ZM scheme（EX_ZM） and the other with the TN scheme（EX_TN）.The results indicate that during the convective process,more water vapor consumption and temperature increment are found in the EX_ZM,especially in the lower model layer,its environment is therefore very dry.In contrast, there is a moister atmosphere in the EX_TN,which favors low cloud formation and large-scale condensation, and hence more low cloud fraction,higher cloud water mixing ratio,and deeper cloud extinction optical depth are simulated,reflecting more solar radiative flux in the EX_TN.This explains why the TN scheme underestimates the net shortwave radiative flux at the top of the atmosphere and at surface.In addition, convection influences longwave radiation,surface sensible and latent heat fluxes through changes in cloud emissivity and precipitation.

The Uncertainty of Mesoscale Numerical Prediction of Heavy Rain in South China and the Ensemble Simulations

In the context of non-hydrostatic MM5 version we have explored the impact ofconvective parameterization schemes on uncertainty in mesoscale numerical prediction of South Chinaheavy rain and mesoscale heavy rainfall short-range ensemble simulation by using two kinds ofphysics perturbation methods through a heavy rain case occurring on June 8, 1998 in Guangdong andFujian Provinces. The results show the physical process of impacts of convective schemes on heavyrainfall is that different latent heat of convective condensation produced by different convectiveschemes can make local temperature perturbation, leading to the difference of local vertical speedby the intrinsic dynamic and thermodynamic processes of atmosphere, and therefore, making differenceof the timing, locations and strength of mesh scale and subgrid scale precipitation later. Newprecipitations become the new source of latent heat and temperature perturbation, which finally makethe dynamic and thermodynamic structures different in the simulations. Two kinds of methods areused to construct different model version stochastically. The first one is using differentconvective parameterization and planetary boundary layer schemes, the second is adjusting differentparameters of convective trigger functions in Grell scheme. The results indicate that the firstensemble simulations can provide more uncertainty information of location and strength of heavyrainfall than the second. The single determinate predictions of heavy rain are unstable; physicsensemble predictions can reflect the uncertainty of heavy rain, provide more useful guidance andhave higher application value. Physics ensembles suggest that model errors should be taken intoconsideration in the heavy rainfall ensembles. Although the method of using different parameters inGrell scheme could not produce good results, how to construct the perturbation model or adjust theparameter in one scheme according to the physical meaning of the parameter still needs furtherinvestigation. The limitation of the current study is that it is based on a single case and morecases will be addressed in the future researches.