Statistically Extrapolated Nowcasting of Summertime Precipitation over the Eastern Alps

This paper presents a new multiple linear regression（MLR） approach to updating the hourly, extrapolated precipitation forecasts generated by the INCA（Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis） system for the Eastern Alps.The generalized form of the model approximates the updated precipitation forecast as a linear response to combinations of predictors selected through a backward elimination algorithm from a pool of predictors. The predictors comprise the raw output of the extrapolated precipitation forecast, the latest radar observations, the convective analysis, and the precipitation analysis. For every MLR model, bias and distribution correction procedures are designed to further correct the systematic regression errors. Applications of the MLR models to a verification dataset containing two months of qualified samples,and to one-month gridded data, are performed and evaluated. Generally, MLR yields slight, but definite, improvements in the intensity accuracy of forecasts during the late evening to morning period, and significantly improves the forecasts for large thresholds. The structure-amplitude-location scores, used to evaluate the performance of the MLR approach,based on its simulation of morphological features, indicate that MLR typically reduces the overestimation of amplitudes and generates similar horizontal structures in precipitation patterns and slightly degraded location forecasts, when compared with the extrapolated nowcasting.

Potential Deformation and Its Application to the Diagnosis of Heavy Precipitation in Mesoscale Convective Systems

Many observational studies have shown that deformation, like vertical vorticity and divergence, is closely related to the occurrence and distribution of strong precipitation. In this paper, to involve deformation in precipitation diagnosis, a new parameter called potential deformation（PD） is derived and then applied to precipitation detection within a simulated mesoscale convective system（MCS）. It is shown that PD includes both stretching deformation and shearing deformation and shares similar characteristics with deformation insofar as it does not change with the rotating coordinate. Diagnosis of the simulated MCS reveals that PD performs well in tracing the MCS＇ precipitation. In terms of their distributional pattern, the large-value areas of PD are similar to the precipitation in the different development stages of the MCS. A detailed analysis of the physical processes contained within the PD shows that it can reflect the three-dimensional moisture variation,vertical wind shear and wind deformation within the MCS. These structures are usually a comprehensive reflection of the characteristics of the surface cold pool, rear inflow jet, downward cold air flow and upward warm moist flow within the precipitating convective cells. For this reason, the PD shows much stronger anomalies in the precipitating atmosphere than the non-precipitating atmosphere, which implies considerable potential for its application in detecting heavy precipitation within MCSs.

Ground-Based Radar Reflectivity Mosaic of Mei-yu Precipitation Systems over the Yangtze River–Huaihe River Basins

The 3D radar reflectivity produced by a mosaic software system, with measurements from 29 operational weather radars in the Yangtze River–Huaihe River Basins（YRHRB） during the mei-yu season of 2007, is compared to coincident TRMM PR observations in order to evaluate the value of the ground-based radar reflectivity mosaic in characterizing the 3D structures of mei-yu precipitation. Results show reasonable agreement in the composite radar reflectivity between the two datasets,with a correlation coefficient of 0.8 and a mean bias of -1 dB. The radar mosaic data at constant altitudes are reasonably consistent with the TRMM PR observations in the height range of 2–5 km, revealing essentially the same spatial distribution of radar echo and nearly identical histograms of reflectivity. However, at altitudes above 5 km, the mosaic data overestimate reflectivity and have slower decreasing rates with height compared to the TRMM PR observations. The areas of convective and stratiform precipitation, based on the mosaic reflectivity distribution at 3-km altitude, are highly correlated with the corresponding regions in the TRMM products, with correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.97 and mean relative differences of -7.9% and -2.5%, respectively. Finally, the usefulness of the mosaic reflectivity at 3-km altitude at 6-min intervals is illustrated using a mesoscale convective system that occurred over the YRHRB.

The Contribution of Mesoscale Convective Systems to Intense Hourly Precipitation Events during the Warm Seasons over Central East China

Central East China is an area where both intense hourly precipitation（IHP） events and mesoscale convection systems（MCSs） occur frequently in the warm seasons. Based on mosaics of composite Doppler radar reflectivity and hourly precipitation data during the warm seasons（May to September） from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2011, the contribution of MCSs to IHP events exceeding 20 mm h^-1 over central East China was evaluated. An MCS was defined as a continuous or quasicontinuous band of 40d BZ reflectivity that extended for at least 100 km in at least one direction and lasted for at least 3h. It was found that the contribution of MCSs to IHP events was 45% on average over central East China. The largest contribution,more than 80%, was observed along the lower reaches of the Yellow River and in the Yangtze River–Huaihe River valleys.These regions were the source regions of MCSs, or along the frequent tracks of MCSs. There were two daily peaks in the numbers of IHP events： one in the late afternoon and one in the early morning. These peaks were more pronounced in July than in other months. MCSs contributed more to the early-morning IHP event peaks than to the late-afternoon peaks. The contributions of MCSs to IHP events with different intensities exhibited no significant difference, which fluctuated around 50% on average over central East China.

Convective/Large-scale Rainfall Partitions of Tropical Heavy Precipitation in CMIP6 Atmospheric Models

Convective/large-scale(C/L)precipitation partitions are crucial for achieving realistic rainfall modeling and are classified in 16 phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)atmospheric models.Only 4 models capture the feature that convective rainfall significantly exceeds the large-scale rainfall component in the tropics while the other 12 models show 50%–100%large-scale rainfall component in heavy rainfall.Increased horizontal resolution generally increases the convective rainfall percentage,but not in all models.The former 4 models can realistically reproduce two peaks of moisture vertical distribution,respectively located in the upper and the lower troposphere.In contrast,the latter 12 models correspond to three types of moisture vertical profile biases:(1)whole mid-to-lower tropospheric wet biases(60%–80%large-scale rainfall);(2)mid-tropospheric wet peak(50%convective/large-scale rainfall);and(3)lower-tropospheric wet peak(90%–100%large-scale rainfall).And the associated vertical distribution of unique clouds potentially causes different climate feedback,suggesting accurate C/L rainfall components are necessary to reliable climate projection.

Application and Study of Precipitation Schemes in Weather Simulation in Summer and Winter over China

Through simulation of summer and winter precipitation cases in China, the cloud precipitation schemes of model were examined. Results indicate that it is discrepant between convective precipitation simulated by the Kain-Fritsch （KF） scheme and Betts-Miller （BM） scheme in summer, the former scheme is better than the latter in this case. The ambient atmosphere may be varied by different convective schemes. The air is wetter and the updraft is stronger in the KF scheme than in the BM scheme, which can induce the more grid scale precipitation in the KF scheme, i.e., the different cumulus schemes may have the different and important effect on the grid scale precipitation. However, there is almost no convective rain in winter in northern China, so the effect of cumulus precipitation on the grid scale precipitation can be disregarded. Therefore, the gird scale precipitation is primary in the winter of northern China.

A Case Study on the Triggering of Thermal Convective Precipitation

Thermal convective precipitation （TCP） often occurs over China's Mainland in summer when the area is dominated by the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. It is well known that the WPSH often brings about large scale subsidence, then why could deep moist convection occur and where does the water vapor come from？ In this paper, a deep convective precipitation case that happened on 2 August 2003 is studied in order to address these two questions. First, the characteristics of the TCP event are analyzed using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） satellite data, automatic weather station observations, and the data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Second, water vapor sources are identified through examining surface evaporation, water vapor advection, and water vapor flux divergence calculated by using a regionally averaged water vapor budget equation. Furthermore, using an Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model （AREM）, contributions of sensible and latent heat fluxes to the TCP are compared through four sensitivity experiments. The results show that in the regions controlled by the WPSH, surface temperature rises rapidly after sunrise. Upon receiving enough sensible heat, the air goes up and leads to convergence in the lower atmosphere. Then the water vapor assembled from the surroundings and the ground surface is transported to the upper levels, and a favorable environment for the TCP forms. A model data diagnosis indicates that about half of precipitable water comes from the convergence of horizontal fluxes of water vapor, and the other half from surface evaporation, while little is from advection. Additional sensitivity experiments prove that both sensible and latent heating are essential for the onset of the TCP. The sensible heat flux triggers thermodynamic ascending motion, and the latent heat flux provides water vapor, but the contribution to TCP from the latter is a little smaller than that from the former.

Modeling radiative effects of haze on summer-time convective precipitation over North China： a case study

The impact of haze radiative effect on summertime 24-h convective precipitation over North China was investigated using WRF model （version 3.3） through model sensitivity studies between scenarios with and without aerosol radiative effects. The haze radiative effect was represented by incorporating an idealized aerosol optical profile, with AOD values around 1, derived from the aircraft measurement into the WRF shortwave scheme. We found that the shortwave heating induced by aerosol radiative effects would significantly reduce heavy rainfalls, although its effect on the post-frontal localized thunderstorm precipitation was more diverse. To capture the key factors that determine whether precipitation is enhanced or suppressed, model grids with 24-h precipitation difference between the ：two scenarios exceeding certain threshold （〉30 mm or〈 -30 mm） were separated into two sets. Analyses of key meteorological variables between the enhanced and suppressed regimes suggested that atmospheric convection was the most important factor that determined whether precipitation was enhanced or suppressed during summertime over North China. The convection was stronger over places with precipitation enhancement over 30 mm. Haze weakened the convection over places with precipitation suppression exceeding 30 mm and caused less water vapor to rise to a higher level and thus further suppressed precipitation. The suppression of precipitation was often accompanied with relatively high convective available potential energy （CAPE）, relative humidity （RH） and updraft velocities.

The Effects of Model Resolution on the Simulation of Regional Climate Extreme Events

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 （MM5V3） was used to simulate extreme heavy rainfall events over the Yangtze River Basin in June 1999. The effects of model＇s horizontal and vertical resolution on the extreme climate events were investigated in detail. In principle, the model was able to characterize the spatial distribution of monthly heavy precipitation. The results indicated that the increase in horizontal resolution could reduce the bias of the modeled heavy rain and reasonably simulate the change of daily precipitation during the study period. A finer vertical resolution led to obviously improve rainfall simulations with smaller biases, and hence, better resolve heavy rainfall events. The increase in both horizontal and vertical resolution could produce better predictions of heavy rainfall events. Not only the rainfall simulation altered in the cases of different horizontal and vertical grid spacing, but also other meteorological fields demonstrated diverse variations in terms of resolution change in the model. An evident improvement in the simulated sea level pressure resulted from the increase of horizontal resolution, but the simulation was insensitive to vertical grid spacing. The increase in vertical resolution could enhance the simulation of surface temperature as well as atmospheric circulation at low levels, while the simulation of circulation at middle and upper levels were found to be much less dependent on changing resolution. In addition, cumulus parameterization schemes showed high sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Different convective schemes exhibited large discrepancies in rainfall simulations with regards to changing resolution. The percentage of convective precipitation in the Grell scheme increased with increasing horizontal resolution. In contrast, the Kain-Fritsch scheme caused a reduced ratio of convective precipitation to total rainfall accumulations corresponding to increasing horizontal resolution.