Employing a random forest model to forecast the likelihood of coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease: a study centered on four biomarkers

Background:Kawasaki disease is an acute immune vasculitis,which is more common in children under 5 years old.Kawasaki disease mainly affects the cardiovascular system,especially the coronary arteries.Once coronary artery damage occurs,it can significantly impact the patient’s prognosis.Therefore,in some countries and regions,Kawasaki disease has become a common acquired heart disease.Methods:First,univariate analysis was conducted on each predictive factor.Then,Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator and random forest algorithms were used to screen all predictive factors,and the prediction model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve,and Decision Curve Analysis.Results:This study,based on data from 228 Kawasaki disease patients,utilized a random forest model to identify four predictive factors:white blood cell count,creatine kinase isoenzyme MB,albumin,and neutrophil count.These factors were used to construct a prediction model,which achieved an area under the curve of 0.743.Conclusions:We developed a forest plot based on white blood cell count,creatine kinase isoenzyme MB,albumin,and neutrophil count to effectively predict the occurrence of coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease.

A Meta-analysis of the Biomarkers Associated with Coronary Artery Lesions Secondary to Kawasaki Disease in Chinese Children

The biomarkers associated with coronary artery lesions （CAL） secondary to Kawasaki disease （KD） in Chinese children were investigated by using Meta-analysis. We searched documents published from January 1997 to December 2009 from medical electronic databases. According to inclusion and exclusion criteria, eligible full-text papers were identified. We conducted a comprehensive quantitative analysis by using Stata10.0 statistical software package to assess the heterogeneity among the documents, calculated the summary effect and analyze publication bias and sensitivity. A total of 92 documents and 16 biomarkers were identified. All documents were case-control studies, and included 2398 patients in CAL group and 5932 patients in non-CAL （NCAL） group. The Meta-analysis showed that the levels of platelet count, platelet hematocrit （PCT）, neutrophils count, platelet distribution width （PDW）, mean platelet volume （MPV）, erythrocyte sedimentation rate （ESR）, cardiac troponin Ⅰ （cTnI）, and endothelin-1 （ET-1） in CAL group were significantly higher than those in NCAL group, and serum albumin （Alb） and hemoglobin （Hb） levels were significantly lower in CAL group （all P〈0.05）. White blood cell （WBC） count, serum sodium, matrix metalloproteinase 9 （MMP-9）, total cholesterol （TC）, hematocrit （HCT） and CD3＋T lymphocytes percentage had no statistically significant difference between the two groups. In conclusion, our results indicated that the 10 biomarkers including platelet count, neutrophils count, PCT, PDW, MPV, ESR, cTnI, ET-1, Alb and Hb were associated with CAL, and may be involved in the pathogenesis of CAL. The biomarkers of WBC count, serum sodium, MMP-9, TC, HCT, and CD3＋T lymphocytes percentage bore no relationship with the development of CAL among Chinese children with KD.

Reevaluation of the Efficacy of Intravenous Gammaglobulin in the Prevention and Treatment of Coronary Artery Lesion in Kawasaki Disease

In order to objectively evaluate the efficacy of intravenous gammaglobulin (IVIG) in the prevention and treatment of coronary artery lesion (CAL) in Kawasaki disease (KD) and the related factors influencing the IVIG efficacy, 314 children with KD were reviewed retrospectively and comparatively and were divided into IVIG plus aspirin group and ASA group. The occurrence and restoration of CAL in these two groups as well as many laboratory and clinical indexes including average hospital stay (days), total fever duration, defervescence time, platelet count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C reactive protein etc. were observed. The incidence of CAL was 39.5 % in the children with KD. In the IVIG+ASA group, the incidence of CAL was 34.3 % and 56.0 % in ASA group respectively (P<0.001). The incidence of CAL was reduced in the group in which 2.0 g/kg or 1.0 g/kg IVIG was administered as compared with the group in which IVIG was administered at a dose ≤0.6 g/kg or ≥3.0 g/kg (P<0.05). CAL occurred less frequently when IVIG was administered at 3-10 days of the course than that when IVIG was administered ≤3 days or >10 days (P<0.05). About 13.4 % of the CAL treated with IVIG was not recovered at the 12 th month of the course, mostly in the groups in which only ASA was administered and IVIG treatment was started 10 days later. The hospital stay (days), defervescence time, total fever duration, platelet count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and C reactive protein were significantly reduced in IVIG+ASA group as compared with those in the ASA group (P<0.05). IVIG treatment can remarkably shorten the course of patients with KD and decrease the incidence of CAL, but the efficacy of IVIG in the prevention and treatment of KD disease is not as expected by people, therefore, reevaluation of the practical efficacy of IVIG is required.

Echocardiography in Diagnosis and Prevention of the Coronary Artery Lesions in Kawasaki Disease

Kawasaki disease (muco-cutaneous lymph node syndrome, MCLS) was first reported by Kawasaki in 1967. It was characteried by nonvascular polymorphous rash, fever, ulcer in oral mucosa, edema of hands of feet, cervix lymphadenopathy and desquamations in peripheral extremities. Because of unknown pathogens, no lab examination was available as a single easily recognized diagnostic marker; the diagnosis is

AST-to-ALT ratio and coronary artery lesions among patients with Kawasaki disease

Background The aim of this study was to explore the associations between the aspartate aminotransferase-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio(AST/ALT)and coronary artery lesions(CALs)among patients with Kawasaki disease(KD).Methods Medical records of KD patients presenting to a single center between January 2019 and December 2020 were retrospectively collected and analyzed.Univariate,multivariable-adjusted analyses,subgroup analyses,restricted cubic spline test,and fitted curves were used to evaluate the associations between AST/ALT and CALs.Results A total of 831 patients were enrolled,of which 201(24.2%)had CALs on admission and 21(2.5%)developed CALs de novo after intravenous immunoglobulin(IVIG).Multivariable-adjusted analyses models revealed that a lower AST/ALT was associated with an increased risk of CALs on admission when AST/ALT was a continuous variable(P=0.007)and when it was a categorical variable(P for trend=0.004).Each unit increase in AST/ALT was associated with a 22%lower risk of CALs on admission(odds ratio=0.78,95%confidence interval 0.65-0.94).A negative linear relationship was noted between AST/ALT and the risk of CALs on admission in both observed and fitted models.However,such associations were not observed in AST/ALT and CALs de novo after IVIG.None of the variables significantly modified the association between AST/ALT and CALs on admission and CALs de novo after IVIG(P>0.05).Conclusion Our findings suggested that AST/ALT was a risk factor of CALs,but was not associated with progressive CALs.

Analysis of the characteristics of coronary artery lesions in patients with obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome and influencing factors

Objective:The current study involved an analysis of the characteristics of coronary artery lesions of patients with obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome(OSAHS)and the correspond-ing influencing factors.Methods:One hundred twenty patients were selected by sleep apnea monitoring and coronary angiography.According to the apnea-hypopnea index(AHI),the patients were divided into the following 3 groups:patients with an AHI<10 times/h as the control group(n=25);patients with an AHI=10~15 times/h as the mild OSAHS group(n=32);and patients with an AHI>15 times/h as the moderate-to-severe OSAHS group(n=63).The clinical and laboratory test data of patients in each group were collected.A single-factor ANOVA and multi-factor logistic regression analysis were performed on the study data to analyze the coronary artery lesions in patients with OSAHS and the corresponding influencing factors.Results:(1)With respect to smoking,alcohol consumption,BMI,blood glucose,blood lipids,and blood pressure among the three groups,there were no significant differences between the three groups;however,age did differ among the three groups(P<0.05).(2)The incidence of anterior descending artery,right coronary artery,single-vessel,and coronary artery lesions as determined by coronary angiography was significantly different(P<0.05).The incidence of these vascular lesions in the moderate-to-severe group was higher than the mild group,and the incidence of coro-nary artery lesions in the moderate-to-severe group was higher(P<0.0167).(3)Based on multi-factor logistic regression analysis,alcohol consumption(OR=7.058;95%CI,1.953-25.508),age(OR=1.845;95%CI,1.121-3.038),and the AHI(OR=2.404;95%CI,1.088-5.314)were the major risk factors for coronary artery lesions.Alcohol consumption(OR=12.114;95%CI,3.058-47.979)and the AHI(OR=3.052;95%CI,1.210-7.694)were the risk factors for single-vessel disease.Age(OR=2.812;95%CI,1.236-6.400)was the major risk factor for multi-vessel disease.Conclusion:The probability of coronary artery lesions increased with OSAHS severity.The main manifestation of the increased possibility was single-vessel coronary artery lesions.In single-vessel disease,the anterior descending branch and the right coronary artery were the most vulner-able,which may be related to the anatomic distribution.Alcohol consumption,age,and AHI are the major risk factors for coronary artery lesions.Alcohol consumption and AHI are major risk factors for single-vessel disease.Age is the main risk factor for multi-vessel disease.

Value of Plasma NT-proBNP to Evaluate the Condition of Coronary Artery Lesion in Patients With ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

To investigate the value of N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide （NT-proBNP） in the evaiuation of the coronary artery condition （ degree of the coronary artery lesion severity and complexity） in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction （STEMI）. Methods Eighty patients with STEMI diagnosed by electrocardiogram （ECG） were selected. The concentration of plasma NT-proBNP was measured by electrochemiluminescence immunoassay, and the value of NT-proBNP concentration to evaluate the degree of severity and complexity in coronary artery lesion by coronary angiography （CAG） was analyzed. Results The more serious and more complex of coronary artery lesion in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, the higher the concentration of plasma NT-proBNP was （ P 〈 0. 05 ）. Conclusion The concentration of plasma NT-proBNP may be a useful marker to evaluate the degree of severity and complexity of coronary artery lesion in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. （ S Chin J Cardiol 2009 ; 10 （ 1 ） ： 15-18）

A Case Summary of the Application of a Drug-eluting Stent Combined with a Drug-Coated Balloon in Left Main Coronary Artery Disease

Objective:To evaluate the clinical efficacy of a drug-eluting stent(DES)combined with a drug-coated balloon(DCB)in the treatment of left main coronary artery bifurcation lesions.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of eight patients with left main coronary artery bifurcation lesions treated with a DES combined with a DCB who were admitted to our hospital from July 2016 to July 2017.These eight patients all underwent DES treatment for their left main coronary artery and left anterior descending coronary artery lesions,and DCB treatment at the ostium of the left circumflex artery;six of the patients underwent surgical procedures under the guidance of intravascular ultrasonography.Immediate postoperative angiography was used to evaluate the patency of the diseased vessels,and the restenosis rate at the 6-month follow-up after the operation and the incidence of serious clinical events within 6 months were assessed as well.Results:The use of a DES combined with a DCB in the treatment of left main coronary artery bifurcation lesions had a low restenosis rate(left main coronary artery(8.4±5.3)%,left anterior descending coronary artery(18.2±5.0)%,left circumflex artery(30.5±16.5)%).No serious clinical events occurred in any patients.Conclusion:A DES combined with a DCB is a safe and effective interventional treatment for left main artery coro-nary bifurcation lesions.

Usefulness of uric acid for predicting rapid coronay artery lesion progression after percutaneous coronary intervention

Background Rapid progression of non-culprit coronary artery lesion happens in some patients after percuta- neous coronary intervention （PCI）. However, the incidence and prognostic factors for progression of coronary le- sion are not clarified. Methods The patients who underwent two coronary angiography （CAG） from January 2015 to January 2017 in our hospital were selected as objects of this retrospective study. According to the results of the second CAG, they were divided into control group （No restenosis in the stent, no change or improvement of out-stent lesions, n=42） and lesion progression group（Aggravation of out-stent lesions, n = 29）. The clinical data of patients between the two groups were analyzed by statistics. Results The change of Lipopro- tein （a） （ Lp （a））and uric acid （UA） in lesion progression group were significantly different from control group （P=0.004 and P=0.037）. Regression analysis showed that, the change of UA was an independent predictive factor of coronary artery lesion progression in a short time（6 - 12 months）after PCI（odds ratio [OR]： 1.007; 95% confidence interval [CI] ： （1.000, 1.013） ; P=0.042）. Conclusion UA is an independent predictive factor of non-culprit coronary artery lesion after stent implanting.

Combined effect of atorvastatin and probucol on plasma cystatin C levels and severity of coronary lesion in patients with borderline coronary lesion

Background The plasma cystatin C concentration （PcyC） has been demonstrated to have prognostic value in acute coronary syndrome, but the study of PcyC in patients with borderline coronary lesions is limited. Moreover, the effects of atorvastatin and probucol on PcyC and the severity of coronary lesions are unknown. This study was to evaluate the effects of the combination of atorvastatin and probucol on PcyC and severity of coronary lesion in patients with borderline coronary lesions. Methods One hundred and thirty consecutive patients with borderline coronary lesions （40% to 60% isolated single stenosis assessed by quantitative coronary angiography） were enrolled into the borderline coronary lesion （BCL） group, and one hundred and thirty-six subjects without coronary lesions comprised the controls （CTR）. The subjects in the BCL group were randomized into routine treatment （RTT, n=60）, and combined treatment with atorvastatin 20 mg plus probucol 1.0 g daily added to routine medication （CBT, n=70）, both groups were treated for 6 months continuously. The levels of PcyC, high-sensitive C-reactive protein （hs-CRP）, total cholesterol （TC）, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol （LDL-C）, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol （HDL-C）, and triglycerides （TG） were determined. One hundred and four subjects in the BCL group were rechecked by coronary angiography. Results PcyC levels were significantly higher in the BCL group than in the CTR group; （2003.26＋825.73） ng/ml vs. （1897.83＋664.46） ng/ml （P 〈0.01）. Compared with patients in the RTT group, the levels of PcyC, TC, LDL-C, TG and hs-CRP were significantly lower in the CBT group （P 〈0.05）. Moreover, there was a trend towards a slight decrease in the RTT patients, （54.38＋10.67）% vs. （50.29＋9.89）% （P 〉0.05）, and a significant decrease in the CBT patients, （53.65＋9.48%） vs. （40.38＋12.93）% （P 〈0.05）, in the mean percent stenosis of borderline coronary lesions before and after six months of treatment. Conclusions Cystatin C played an important role in with the severity of coronary lesions. The combination the treatment of choice. the development of coronary artery disease, and was associated of atorvastatin and probucol decreased PcyC levels, and could be

Corticosteroid Therapy Might be Associated with the Development of Coronary Aneurysm in Children with Kawasaki Disease

Background：Coronary artery lesions （CALs） are known to be the main complication in children with Kawasaki disease （KD）.Instead of intravenous immunoglobulin （IVIG）,corticosteroid therapy has been accepted to be used for children with KD who are unresponsive to IVIG.This study aimed to evaluate risk factors for CALs in children with KD.Methods：We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 2331 children with KD from January 2005 to December 2014.To identify the independent risk factors for CALs,multivariable logistic regression models were constructed using significant variables identified from univariate logistic regression analysis.Results：The incidence of CALs was 36.0% （840 of 2331）,including 625 （26.8%） coronary artery dilations and 215 （9.2%） coronary artery aneurysms （CAAs）.Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified that male,incomplete KD,longer fever duration,and C-reactive protein （CRP） 〉 100 mg/L were independent risk factors for coronary artery dilatations.On the other hand,male,incomplete KD,longer fever duration,prolonged days of illness at the initial treatment,corticosteroid therapy,sodium ≤133 mmol/L,and albumin 〈35 g/L were the independent risk factors for CAAs.In addition,corticosteroid therapy,prolonged days of illness at the initial treatment,and albumin 〈35 g/L were the independent risk factors for giant CAAs.Conclusions：CALs might be associated with male sex,incomplete KD,longer fever duration,prolonged days of illness at the initial treatment,albumin 〈35 g/L,sodium ≤ 133 mmol/L,CRP 〉 100 mg/L,and corticosteroid therapy.Corticosteroid therapy was an independent risk factor for CAAs and giant CAAs.Thus,corticosteroids should be used with caution in the treatment of KD with the risk for CALs.

Epidemiologic features of Kawasaki disease in Shanghai from 2003 through 2007

Background The epidemiologic pictures of Kawasaki disease （KD） in Shanghai from 1998 through 2002 were reported while the current status of KD in the following five years remains unknown. Methods A questionnaire form and diagnostic guidelines for KD were sent to 50 hospitals providing pediatric medical care in Shanghai, China. All patients with KD diagnosed during January 2003 through December 2007 were recruited. Results In total, 1187 cases of KD were enrolled. The incidence of KD was 36.78 to 53.28 （mean 46.32±6.51） per 100 000 children under the age of 5 years between 2003 and 2007, which was higher than the year from 1998 to 2002 of （27.32±7.11） per 100 000, （t=4.406, P=0.002）. Ages at onset ranged from 12 days to 13.6 years （median 1.8 years）. It occurred more frequently in summer and spring. Coronary arterial lesions （CAL）, defined as ectasia or aneurysm, accounted for 19.8% （232 cases）. Flattened or inverted T wave was the most frequent finding （194 cases, 20.5%） by electrocardiogram. Intravenous gamma-globulin was administrated to 1028 cases （86.6%）. The occurrence of CAL seemed less frequent in the patients received gamma-globulin from day 5 to day 9 after the onset with the regimen of 1000 mg/kg once or 1000 mg/kg twice. Conclusions The incidence of KD was increasing in Shanghai. Treatment with intravenous gamma-globulin from day 5 to day 9 after the onset with the regimen of 1000 mg/kg once or 1000 mg/kg twice resulted in less coronary seauelae.