Influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income from the perspective of transmission asymmetry

Based on time series data of RMB exchange rate and urban-rural income, this paper makes an empirical study for the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income by utilizing rolling regression model through direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. According to the results, the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income has features of incompleteness and asymmetry. Moreover, RMB appreciation will help to reduce the urban-rural income gap. Therefore, this paper suggests that the Chinese economy should accelerate the course of transforming mode, adjusting structure and promoting development under the new normal. Meanwhile, reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism should be promoted, living standard of residents must be improved, and the urban-rural income gap should be reduced.

Piketty’s Capital-Income Theory Reconsidered for a Small Open Economy with Increasing Savings Rate

Since Piketty offered a new view of capital/income ratio, numerous attempts have been made to examine the relationship between return on capital, economic growth and the capital/income ratio. This paper attempts to shed new light on this field. More precisely, following recent literatures that pay attention to dynamics of external balance sheets of countries, we examine if Piketty’s results for large countries are robust for a country that takes the world rate of return on capital as given and whose savings rate increases gradually from negative value. It is revealed that for such a country, (1) Kuznets curve is drawn and (2) capital/income ratio decreases in accordance with a rise in savings rate and return on capital.

The Impact of Changes of the Internal Agricultural Structure in Sichuan Province on Farmers' Income

After introducing the status quo of farmers' net income and gross output value of agriculture of Sichuan Province,and the changes of agricultural output structure,the regression analysis was conducted on the impact of the changes in agricultural structure on the farmers' net income per capita on the strengthen of the data from Sichuan statistical yearbook and by the way of econometrics.The multiple linear regression analysis was conducted on the impact the changes in crop farming on farmers' net income by using logarithmic demand model.The results show that the agricultural structure has transformed from the dominant crop farming to the all-around developmental trend covering the dominant industry,animal husbandry and forestry,fishery and the other industries;the animal husbandry has greatest impact on famers' income per capita and the impact of crop farming is slightly weaker than animal husbandry;the crop farming and animal husbandry develop fairly rapid simultaneously and the two all have great impact in farmers' income;among animal husbandry,the meat and eggs have relatively great impact on farmers' income,while in crop farming,grain plays the dominant role in affecting farmers' income,followed by cash crop.Hence,the relevant countermeasures applied to increase farmers' income are put forward in terms of optimizing the internal structure of agriculture,adjusting the internal structure of crop farming,adjusting the internal structure of animal husbandry and strengthening the support of farmers.

China＇s Household Consumption Decline Amidst Rising Income Inequality： A Theoretical and Empirical Study

This paper studies the relationship between the widening urban-rural income inequality and weak household consumption demand in China. The theoretic model shows that households with higher income have lower average and marginal propensity to consume （APC and MPC）, and that the larger the income gap is, the weaker household consumption demand becomes. This paper tests the theoretical model with the panel data of 28 Chinese provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 1978 to 2009. The results show that with an increase of RMBIO, O00 in income, household APC drops by 25.6 percent and MPC by 7.0 percent,＂ and that if the income gap widens by one unit, household consumption rate drops by 6. 5 percentage points. Simulation results reveal that the widening urban-rural income inequality caused an extra drop of 3.42 percentage points in household consumption rate from 2000 to 2008, which accounts for 30.8 percent of the total drop in household consumption rate during that period.

Supply and Demand,Tax,Income,Profit and Proof of Goldbach’s Conjecture--Logic is the Basis of Correct Mathematical Measurement

This paper demonstrates that Marshall’s logic on the supply and demand curve is not rigorous enough,that Coase’s theorem is flawed,and that the“Okishio Theorem”and Sweezy s logic are inadequate through empirical proof.By the way,the Goldbach conjecture is proved through clever mathematical proof.It shows that beautiful curves and mathematical formulas cannot be separated from reality and logic,and correct logic can play a correct role in market theory.In this paper,the analysis of the actual supply and demand curve,as well as the concepts and models of tax,profit rate and income,has positive practical significance for economic depression and stagflation.

企业所得税税率变动的劳动雇佣效应

通过减税降费着力稳预期、稳增长、稳就业是当前政府工作的重要内容。为回应企业所得税减税是否有助于稳就业这一重大现实问题,本文构建了一个简单的理论模型来分析企业所得税税率变动对企业劳动雇佣行为的影响,并以2008年我国企业所得税法正式实施为政策冲击进行因果识别。研究发现,企业所得税税率下降显著提高了企业劳动雇佣规模,税率上升则未产生明显影响。进一步分析发现,税率下降对企业雇佣的正向影响主要体现在面临较强融资约束的企业、税收遵从程度较高的企业以及产品市场竞争程度较高的企业。机制分析表明,税率下降促进了企业投资,由于资本-劳动互补,最终引起企业雇佣规模上升。本文的研究加深了对减税降费政策劳动雇佣效应的理解,有助于后续减税政策的出台与调整,也为税收征管改革和市场化建设提供了政策启示。

不同来水流量下黄土堰塞坝溃口展宽历程的水槽试验研究

黄土在水流作用下容易遭受侵蚀,不同流量的来水对黄土堰塞坝的溃决过程和溃口扩展方式有显著影响。该文通过一系列水槽实验,流量分别为0.6 L/s、0.8 L/s、1.0 L/s、1.2 L/s和1.5 L/s,得到以下结论:①当来水流量Q≤1.0 L/s时溃口展宽为短暂历程,经历溃口贯通一个过程;来水流量Q>1.0 L/s时溃口展宽为完整历程,经历溃口贯通、快速发展、稳定三个过程;②溃口快速发展阶段中,侵蚀深度和坡角控制着溃口两侧土体的稳定性,坝顶溃口形态以及溃决流量的变化反映侵蚀方向和强度的变化;③黄土的水敏性促进了管涌现象的出现,使得坝体内部侵蚀更为剧烈,导致溃口展宽出现短暂历程;④完整历程模式下洪水迅速强烈地冲击下游,而短暂历程模式需要持续稳定的应急措施来应对洪水风险。能够为黄土堰塞坝的溃决机理和防治措施提供参考支持。

Monetary and fiscal factors in nominal interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under a deregulated regime

Background:This paper examines the role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under its deregulated regime of interest rates.In addition the paper also examines the role of monetary factors in the variation of interest rates,using a quarterly dataset for the post-global recession period,when the exchange rate is determined by market forces.Results:Empirical analysis uses a dataset of nominal interest rates,money growth,income growth,changes in nominal exchange rate,and budget deficit.From the methodological point of view the paper involves vector autoregression model and Wald tests of Granger causality,followed by impulse response analysis while stationarity and the order of integration of the selected variables are confirmed involving the augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Phillips-Perron unit-root tests.Results:The paper confirms that both monetary and fiscal factors have significant effects on the variations of interest rates.Money growth triggers an increase in interest rates,which supports the Fisher equation view,while income growth has a negative impact.Budget deficit causes a rise in interest rates,but the role of the exchange rate is found to be almost insignificant,probably due to including exchange rate series that cover both the pegged and market-based regimes of exchange rates.The second part of the analysis,using a quarterly dataset for the post-global recession period,further establishes the positive impact of M2 money growth and income growth on interest rates.In this case,exchange rate depreciation causes an increase in interest rates.Conclusions:The significant role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations implies it would be possible to manage interest rates through a judiciary management of monetary and fiscal policies.

Contribution Rate of Agricultural Informationization to Growth of Agricultural Economy in Hubei Province and Its Influencing Factors

Agricultural informationization is the objective demand for transforming the traditional agriculture and promoting the development of agricultural modernization. Using the statistical data of the gross agricultural output value of Hubei Province in 2005-2014,based on the C-D production function,it calculated the average contribution rate(2. 48%) of agricultural informationization to the growth of agricultural economy in Hubei Province,indicating that agricultural informationization can promote growth of agricultural economy. This is basically consistent with previous findings. In addition,investment in agricultural informationization and broadband access rate also influenced the growth of agricultural economy in Hubei Province. Therefore,government should further improve the infrastructure of agricultural informationization,strengthen training of farmers’ information skills,establish auxiliary mechanism for achievement feedback of information-based agricultural production,increase the contribution rate of informationization to agricultural operation and management,promote the contribution of informationization to the growth of agricultural economy,so as to increase agricultural income of farmers.

Demographic Structure and the Real Exchange Rate:A Study Based on Cross-Country Data

By creating a two-sector intertemporal and intergenerational small open economy model,this paper investigates how real exchange rate responds to demographic shifts in the long term.The result shows that when the capital density of tradable goods sector exceeds that of non-tradable goods sector in a country,an increase in the country's elderly dependency rate(ODR) will cause its real exchange rate to appreciate.In addition,higher savings rate or per capita labor income means that real exchange rate is more responsive to ODR variations.We conducted an econometric test on our theoretical hypotheses using the data of 214 countries and regions during 1980-2013.Empirical result indicates that an increase of ODR will cause real exchange rate to appreciate.This result is robust and unaffected by sample grouping characteristics and differences.An increase in savings rate will significantly increase the ODR elasticity of real exchange rate.This conclusion is also significant and robust for overall samples and categorized samples(except for developed countries) and generally consistent with our theoretical hypothesis.However,our empirical research generally does not support the hypothesis that higher labor income increases the responsiveness of real exchange rate to ODR.This study is of great significance to unravel the effect of China's ageing population on the longterm variations of renminbi's exchange rate.

China’s High Savings Rate Puzzle:Role of Precautionary Saving

Academics have yet to agree on the effectiveness of the precautionary saving theory in explaining Chinese households’saving behavior.With the Wenchuan megaearthquake of 2008 as an uncertain event to overcome the endogeneity problem of income volatility,this paper puts forward a brand-new hypothesis that"an earthquake influences household saving rate through its effects on expected income and the variance of expected income."Then,we employ propensity score matching-difference-in-differences(PSMDID)method,the systematic GMM methods,the synthetic control method,together with instrumental variable method,for an analysis of Chinese Household Income Project(CHIP)and inter-provincial data at the micro and macro levels,respectively.We find that the Wenchuan mega-earthquake was followed by an increase in the variance of household expected income in Sichuan and a significant rise in the household saving rate.Second,social protection is negatively correlated with expected income,and has a significant substitutive relationship with saving rate.This finding indirectly proves that the earthquake’s impact on the household saving rate is subject to the variance of expected income,shedding light on how the precautionary saving motivation works in the real world.

Consequences of Tax Rate Decrease in Polish Tax System

After a transition from the central planning into a market economy, Poland was compelled to implement a new tax system. It was based on income taxes and turnover （especially value added） taxes. Primarily income taxes had high tax rates. In corporate tax the rate was proportional and at the beginning amounted to 40%. For natural persons the taxation had a progressive tendency. The tax rates amounted to 21%, 33% and 45% respectively with very low limits of income, which resulted in changing the rate. Since the beginning of 1991 and 1992 till now the tax rates have been decreased significantly. Now the tax rates amount to 18% and 32% respectively with high level of income, which results in changing the rate. The question arises whether such changes were really effective for the central budget. The article formulates and verifies a hypothesis assuming that lowering the rates was justified by the contemporary ＂fashion＂ rather than economic reasons. According to financial aspects, the impact of lower rates on the central budged will be examined.

Managing Interest Rate Risk： An Evaluation of Indian Banks

Interest rate risk represents one of the key forms of financial risk faced by banks. It has given rise to an extensive body of research, .mainly focused on the estimation of sensitivity of bank stock returns to changes in interest rates. However, the analysis of the sources of bank interest rate risk has received much less attention in the literature. It is essential that banks have to monitor, maintain, and manage their assets and liabilities portfolios in a systematic manner taking into account the various risks involved in these areas. Balance sheet risk of a bank can be categorized into two major types of significant risks, which are liquidity risk and interest rate risk （IRR）. IRR is the risk to earning of capital arising from movement of interest rates. The need to manage IRR in Indian banks arises from movement of interest rates. The areas not much considered in the earlier research work are to manage IRR which influences critically the overall profitability of banks. The study was taken with an objective of analyzing the determinants of IRR and examining the strategy to manage such exposures testing the banks long run sustainability. The study had chosen 45 banks and collected secondary data for the financial year 2007 to 2012 to do the analysis of IRR management. The findings of the study were to suggest the ways to minimize the IRR and control its effect on the banks profit. The other findings were to test impact of IRR on the sustainability of the bank.

Testification on Effectiveness of Average or Weight-added Internal Rate of Return

It seems that an effective way of how to make the right choice of Various investment projects is based on the theory of average internal income rate, or the theory of weight-added internal income rate. With several examples of numerical value, this paper proves that this method is not as effective as expected, but indirectly testifies that only with the principle of maximization of NPV that independent projects can be the best combination of projects with limited investment that is achieved.

企业数字化转型对劳动收入份额的影响

数字化转型作为企业未来发展的新动能,其是否能够提高企业劳动收入份额,优化内部收入分配格局仍存在争议。为厘清二者之间的作用关系,需要在从理论上廓清数字化转型影响企业劳动收入份额的经济逻辑的基础上,利用2012—2020年中国沪深A股上市公司数据进行实证检验。研究发现:数字化转型从整体上提升了企业劳动收入份额,实现了“分好蛋糕”的目标;数字化转型通过工资率和劳动生产率影响劳动收入份额,且对工资率的影响大于对劳动生产率的影响,从而产生数字化转型提高企业劳动收入份额的净效应;数字化转型能够提高企业增加值,实现“做大蛋糕”的目标;与劳动密集型企业相比,资本技术密集型企业的数字化转型对劳动收入份额的提升作用更大;与非国有上市公司相比,国有上市公司的数字化转型对劳动收入份额的影响程度有所下降,主要原因在于国有企业对社会责任的特殊承担。通过揭示数字化转型影响劳动收入份额的内在机理,可以为二者之间作用关系的争议提供微观层面的实证依据,也为数字经济背景下企业如何兼顾效率与公平,实现共同富裕提供有益的政策启示。

中国企业所得税的有效税率差异研究——基于财务报表附注数据的分解

本文基于上市公司财务报表附注数据,对企业所得税有效税率差异的形成因素进行了分解。研究发现如下:第一,近年来企业所得税优惠政策不断推出,其中税基式优惠的增长尤为明显;第二,随着优惠规模的扩大,企业的有效税率普遍下降,但企业间的税负差异也随之扩大;第三,税收法定的制度因素对有效税率差异的影响至关重要,其中,适用税率的大小是决定企业有效税率高低的关键因素,而税基调整项中的暂时性差异是有效税率差异的最主要来源。本研究强调,未来的税收政策应更注重效率与公平的权衡,同时考虑企业认知能力的差异,税制设计应避免过于复杂和碎片化。

制造业数字化与劳动收入份额变动

制造业数字化转型能够改变劳动力市场格局,对收入分配产生重要影响。以1995—2018年45个国家17个制造业部门为样本,考察制造业数字化对劳动收入份额的影响。研究发现:制造业数字化对劳动收入份额的影响呈现“倒U型”特征,这种特征在发达国家中比较突出,在发展中国家中不明显;相比于国外投入,国内投入数字化对劳动收入份额的“倒U型”影响较早达到拐点;制造业数字化与直接出口、间接出口以及再进口活动的劳动收入份额分别呈抑制、促进和“倒U型”关系。机制检验显示,制造业数字化主要通过工资率效应和价值链分工效应对劳动收入份额产生“倒U型”影响。进一步分析发现,制造业数字化能够缩小高-低技能和中-高技能劳动者的工资差距。拓展性分析表明,资本-劳动比和行业竞争程度的提高均使劳动收入份额由升转降的拐点提前。研究可为推动制造业数字化转型与完善收入分配制度提供重要启示。

A comparison of Chinese,U.S.savings rates

The major statistical difference between the Chinese and U.S.savings rates is that the United States adopts the conceptof a net savings rate, while China adopts the concept of gross savings rate in which savings include asset depreciation.Despite the different statistical calculations, we can come to the following conclusions: i) the savings rate in China hasbeen rising and that of the United States has been falling; ii) the savings rate in China is high and that of the UnitedStates is low; and iii) the household savings rate in China is high and the personal savings rate of the United States islow.The gap between China and the United States’ savings levels reflects residents’ loss of a sense of security, an absenceof enterprises’ social obligations and the enhancement of the government’s power over the whole economy during theprocess of institutional reform in China.Hence, while firmly promoting social-security system reform and advancingnational income allocation system reform, it is of significance in the long term for China to restrain enterprises’ andgovernment’s allocation behaviors and prevent public department interests from being solidified.

感知医疗压力对老年人心理健康的影响研究——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2020年数据,从医疗经济压力、健康感知压力和服务获取压力三个维度分析老年人所能感知的医疗压力,并通过熵值法计算出医疗总压力,旨在探讨影响老年人心理健康的因素。进一步采用调节、中介效应模型进行机制分析,研究发现,医疗经济压力、健康感知压力和服务获取压力显著影响老年人的心理健康,其中医疗经济压力、服务获取压力对老年人心理健康水平的影响存在年龄和城乡差异,医疗总压力通过降低生活满意度间接影响心理健康水平,而较高的自评收入地位则能有效缓解医疗总压力的消极影响。为缓解老年人医疗压力,提高老年群体的生活质量和心理健康水平,首先,应整合社会资源,构建涵盖老年人健康和就医需求的全方位服务体系;其次,需关注年龄和城乡差异,提供差异化的医疗服务和补贴政策;再次,要发挥生活满意度的桥梁作用,通过公共领域适老化改造满足老年人活动需要,并鼓励家庭和社区参与老年人心理健康的调节;最后,鼓励适龄人群在自身条件允许的情况下再就业,增强其经济安全感。

纳税信用评级制度与企业劳动收入份额

采用2011—2020年A股上市公司为研究样本,探讨了纳税信用评级制度对企业劳动收入份额的影响及其机理。研究发现:纳税信用评级制度显著提高了企业劳动收入份额。机制分析表明,纳税信用评级制度通过缓解企业融资约束和调整企业雇佣决策进而影响企业劳动收入份额。异质性分析发现,纳税信用评级制度对劳动收入份额的促进作用对于非国有企业、信息不对称较高企业以及普通员工更为显著。本研究对于提高劳动收入份额,促进共同富裕具有重要意义。