Different El Niño Flavors and Associated Atmospheric Teleconnections as Simulated in a Hybrid Coupled Model

A previously developed hybrid coupled model(HCM)is composed of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),denoted as HCMAGCM.In this study,different El Niño flavors,namely the Eastern-Pacific(EP)and Central-Pacific(CP)types,and the associated global atmospheric teleconnections are examined in a 1000-yr control simulation of the HCMAGCM.The HCMAGCM indicates profoundly different characteristics among EP and CP El Niño events in terms of related oceanic and atmospheric variables in the tropical Pacific,including the amplitude and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature(SST),zonal wind stress,and precipitation anomalies.An SST budget analysis indicates that the thermocline feedback and zonal advective feedback dominantly contribute to the growth of EP and CP El Niño events,respectively.Corresponding to the shifts in the tropical rainfall and deep convection during EP and CP El Niño events,the model also reproduces the differences in the extratropical atmospheric responses during the boreal winter.In particular,the EP El Niño tends to be dominant in exciting a poleward wave train pattern to the Northern Hemisphere,while the CP El Niño tends to preferably produce a wave train similar to the Pacific North American(PNA)pattern.As a result,different climatic impacts exist in North American regions,with a warm-north and cold-south pattern during an EP El Niño and a warm-northeast and cold-southwest pattern during a CP El Niño,respectively.This modeling result highlights the importance of internal natural processes within the tropical Pacific as they relate to the genesis of ENSO diversity because the active ocean–atmosphere coupling is allowed only in the tropical Pacific within the framework of the HCMAGCM.

Contrasts of bimodal tropical instability waves(TIWs)-induced wind stress perturbations in the Pacific Ocean among observations,ocean models,and coupled climate models

The coupling between wind stress perturbations and sea surface temperature(SST)perturbations induced by tropical instability waves(TIWs)in the Pacific Ocean has been revealed previously and proven crucial to both the atmosphere and ocean.However,an overlooked fact by previous studies is that the loosely defined“TIWs”actually consist of two modes,including the Yanai wave-based TIW on the equator(hereafter eTIW)and the Rossby wave-based TIW off the equator(hereafter vTIW).Hence,the individual feedbacks of the wind stress to the bimodal TIWs remain unexplored.In this study,individual coupling relationships are established for both eTIW and v TIW,including the relationship between the TIW-induced SST perturbations and two components of wind stress perturbations,and the relationship between the TIW-induced wind stress perturbation divergence(curl)and the downwind(crosswind)TIW-induced SST gradients.Results show that,due to different distributions of eTIW and vTIW,the coupling strength induced by the eTIW is stronger on the equator,and that by the vTIW is stronger off the equator.The results of any of eTIW and vTIW are higher than those of the loosely defined TIWs.We further investigated how well the coupling relationships remained in several widely recognized oceanic general circulation models and fully coupled climate models.However,the coupling relationships cannot be well represented in most numerical models.Finally,we confirmed that higher resolution usually corresponds to more accurate simulation.Therefore,the coupling models established in this study are complementary to previous research and can be used to refine the oceanic and coupled climate models.

Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model

Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.

Research on the Coupled and Coordinated Development of Tourism and Transport in Chengdu City

Based on a total of 16 indicators selected from the tourism and transport industries,an evaluation index system of the coupling and coordination development level of tourism and transport is constructed.The entropy value method and the coupling coordination degree model are used to conduct an empirical study on the development level and coupling coordination level of the transport and tourism industries in Chengdu City from 2011 to 2020.The results show that,on the whole,the coupling coordination degree of transport and tourism in Chengdu is poor and has been in a state of mild to moderate dysfunction.The development level of tourism lagged behind the development of transport from 2011 to 2012,and the two were in a state of mild dysfunction.However,from 2013 onwards,the development level of tourism was prioritized over the development level of transport.This shift caused the coupling coordination degree of the two industries to decline sharply to 0.23305 in 2013.The development level of the tourism industry increased again,reaching 0.34206 in 2019,which marked an improvement.Consequently,the coordination degree of the transport and tourism industries evolved from moderate dislocation to mild dislocation.Finally,the results of the empirical research are analyzed,and corresponding suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainable growth of the transport and tourism industries in Chengdu City.These suggestions aim to improve the coupled and coordinated development level of the two industries.

Coupled modeling of tumour angiogenesis, tumour growth,and blood perfusion

This paper proposes a more realistic mathematical simulation method to investigate the dynamic process of tumour angio-genesis by fully coupling the vessel growth,tumour growth and associated blood perfusion.The tumour growth and angiogenesis are coupled by the chemical microenvironment and the cell-matrix interaction.The haemodynamic calculation is carried out on the new vasculature,and an estimation of vessel collapse is made according to the wall shear stress criterion.The results are consistent with physiological observations,and further confirm the application of the coupled model feedback mechanism.The model is available to examine the interactions between angiogenesis and tumour growth,to study the change in the dynamic process of chemical environment and the vessel remodeling.

Coupled modeling of land hydrology-regional climate including human carbon emission and water exploitation

Carbon emissions and water use are two major kinds of human activities. To reveal whether these two activities can modify the hydrological cycle and climate system in China, we conducted two sets of numerical experiments using regional climate model RegCM4. In the first experiment used to study the climatic responses to human carbon emissions, the model were configured over entire China because the impacts of carbon emissions can be detected across the whole country. Results from the first experiment revealed that near-surface air temperature may significantly increase from 2007 to 2059 at a rate exceeding 0.1 ~C per decade in most areas across the country; southwestern and southeastern China also showed increasing trends in summer precipitation, with rates exceeding 10 mm per decade over the same period. In summer, only northern China showed an increasing trend of evapotranspiration, with increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade; in winter, increase rates ranging from 1 to 5 mm per decade were observed in most regions. These effects are believed to be caused by global warming from human carbon emissions. In the second experiment used to study the effects of human water use, the model were configured over a limited region-- Haihe River Basin in the northern China, because compared with the human carbon emissions, the effects of human water use are much more local and regional, and the Haihe River Basin is the most typical region in China that suffers from both intensive human groundwater exploitation and surface water diversion. We incorporated a scheme of human water regulation into RegCM4 and conducted the second experiment. Model outputs showed that the groundwater table severely declined by -10 m in 1971-2000 through human groundwater over- exploitation in the basin; in fact, current conditions are so extreme that even reducing the pumping rate by half cannot eliminate the ground- water depletion cones observed in the area. Other hydrological and climatic elements, such as soil moisture, runoff generation, air humidity, precipitation, wind field, and soil and air temperature, were also significantly affected by anthropogenic water withdrawal and consumption, although these effects could be mitigated by reducing the amount of water drawn for extraction and application.

FEM-DEM coupled modeling of cone penetration tests in lunar soil

Cone penetration test(CPT)is an appropriate technique for quickly determining the geotechnical properties of lunar soil,which is valuable for in situ lunar exploration.Utilizing a typical coupling method recently developed by the authors,a finite element method(FEM)-discrete element method(DEM)coupled model of CPTs is obtained.A series of CPTs in lunar soil are simulated to qualitatively reveal the flow of particles and the development of resistance throughout the penetration process.In addition,the effects of major factors,such as penetration velocity,penetration depth,cone tip angle,and the low gravity on the Moon surface are investigated.

Modeling the Tropical Pacific Ocean Using a Regional Coupled Climate Model

A high-resolution tropical Pacific general circulation model （GCM） coupled to a global atmospheric GCM is described in this paper. The atmosphere component is the 5°× 4° global general circulation model of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP） with 9 levels in the vertical direction. The ocean component with a horizontal resolution of 0.5°, is based on a low-resolution model （2° × 1° in longitude-latitude）. Simulations of the ocean component are first compared with its previous version. Results show that the enhanced ocean horizontal resolution allows an improved ocean state to be simulated; this involves （1） an apparent decrease in errors in the tropical Pacific cold tongue region, which exists in many ocean models, （2） more realistic large-scale flows, and （3） an improved ability to simulate the interannual variability and a reduced root mean square error （RMSE） in a long time integration. In coupling these component models, a monthly ＂linear-regression＂ method is employed to correct the model＇s exchanged flux between the sea and the atmosphere. A 100-year integration conducted with the coupled GCM （CGCM） shows the effectiveness of such a method in reducing climate drift. Results from years 70 to 100 are described. The model produces a reasonably realistic annual cycle of equatorial SST. The large SSTA is confined to the eastern equatorial Pacific with little propagation. Irregular warm and cold events alternate with a broad spectrum of periods between 24 and 50 months, which is very realistic. But the simulated variability is weaker than the observed and is also asymmetric in the sense of the amplitude of the warm and cold events.

A new numerical approach of coupled modeling for solid deformation and gas leak flow in multi-coal-seams

From the viewpoint of interaction mechanics for solid and gas, a coupled mathematical model was presented for solid coal/rock deformation and gas leak flow in parallel deformable coal seams. Numerical solutions using the SIP (Strong Implicit Proce- dure) method to the coupled mathematical model for double parallel coal seams were also developed in detail. Numerical simulations for the prediction of the safety range using protection layer mining were performed with experimental data from a mine with potential danger of coal/gas outbursts. Analyses show that the numerical simulation results are consistent with the measured data in situ.

Framework of Distributed Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Wave Modeling System

In order to research the interactions between the atmosphere and ocean as well as their important role in the intensive weather systems of coastal areas, and to improve the forecasting ability of the hazardous weather processes of coastal areas, a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling system has been developed. The agent-based environment framework for linking models allows flexible and dynamic information exchange between models. For the purpose of flexibility, portability and scalability, the framework of the whole system takes a multi-layer architecture that includes a user interface layer, computational layer and service-enabling layer. The numerical experiment presented in this paper demonstrates the performance of the distributed coupled modeling system.

Assessment of earthquake-induced landslide hazard zoning using the physics-environmental coupled Model

In order to prevent and mitigate disasters,it is crucial to immediately and properly assess the spatial distribution of landslide hazards in the earthquake-affected area.Currently,there are primarily two categories of assessment techniques:the physical mechanism-based method(PMBM),which considers the landslide dynamics and has the advantages of effectiveness and proactivity;the environmental factor-based method(EFBM),which integrates the environmental conditions and has high accuracy.In order to obtain the spatial distribution of landslide hazards in the affected area with near realtime and high accuracy,this study proposed to combine the PMBM based on Newmark method with EFBM to form Newmark-Information value model(N-IV),Newmark-Logic regression model(N-LR)and Newmark-Support Vector Machine model(N-SVM)for seismic landslide hazard assessment on the Ludian Mw 6.2 earthquake in Yunnan.The predicted spatial hazard distribution was compared with the actual cataloged landslide inventory,and frequency ratio(FR),and area under the curve(AUC)metrics were used to verify the model's plausibility,performance,and accuracy.According to the findings,the model's accuracy is ranked as follows:N-SVM>N-LR>N-IV>Newmark.With an AUC value of 0.937,the linked N-SVM was discovered to have the best performance.The research results indicate that the physics-environmental coupled model(PECM)exhibits accuracy gains of 46.406%(N-SVM),30.625%(N-LR),and 22.816%(N-IV)when compared to the conventional Newmark technique.It shows varied degrees of improvement from 2.577%to 12.446%when compared to the single EFBM.The study also uses the Ms 6.8 Luding earthquake to evaluate the model,showcasing its trustworthy in forecasting power and steady generalization.Since the suggested PECM in this study can adapt to complicated earthquake-induced landslides situations,it aims to serve as a reference for future research in a similar field,as well as to help with emergency planning and response in earthquakeprone regions with landslides.

Atmospheric and oceanic responses to Super Typhoon Mangkhut in the South China Sea:a coupled CROCO-WRF simulation

The South China Sea(SCS)is the largest marginal sea in the Northwest Pacific Ocean,and it encounters frequent typhoons.The atmosphere and ocean will create significant thermal and dynamic responses during the intense disturbance caused by typhoons.However,these responses have not been thoroughly investigated owing to the complicated marine environment.According to the satellite data,the SCS Basin was observed to have a strong sea surface temperature(SST)response to Typhoon Mangkhut,resulting in widespread SST cooling.A coupled model was used to investigate the atmospheric and oceanic responses to Typhoon Mangkhut.Best-track data,satellite SST,and ARGO measurements show that the coupled WRF-CROCO simulation displays better track,intensity,SST,temperature,and salinity profiles than those of the WRF-only simulation.Results show that the typhoon induced rightward intensifications in wind speed,ocean current,and SST.The following are some remarkable atmosphere and ocean responses:(1)the SST below the inner-core region is cooled by 1℃,resulting in a 37%-44%decrease in wet enthalpy,and the central pressure is increased by~9 hPa.Therefore,the changes in SST below the innercore region of the SCS Basin have a significant impact on air-sea fluxes under high-wind conditions;(2)the ocean boundary layer analysis shows that near-inertial oscillations on the right side of the typhoon track and a strong inertial current up to~2.28 m/s in the upper ocean were observed,which resonated with the local wind and flow field on the right side and induced strong SST cooling;(3)a decrease in SST decreased the moist static energy of the typhoon boundary layer,thereby weakening the typhoon’s intensity.The difference in equivalent potential temperature and sea surface pressure have a good correlation,indicating that the influence of moist static energy on typhoon intensity cannot be overlooked.

Coupled Modeling of Electromagnetic Fleld,Fluid Flow,Heat Transfer and Solidification During Conventional DC Casting and Low Ftequency Electrmagnetic Casting of 7xxx Aluminum Alloys

A comprehensive mathematical model has been developed to describe the interaction of the multiple physics fields during the conventional DC casting and LFEC (low frequency electromagnetic casting) process. The model is based on a combination of the commercial finite element package ANSYS and the commercial finite volume package FLUENT, with the former for the calculation of the electromagnetic field and the latter for the calculation of the magnetic driven fluid flow, heat transfer and solidification. Moreover, the model has been verified against the temperature measurements obtained from two 7XXX aluminum alloy billets of 200mm diameter, cast during the conventional DC casting and the LFEC casting processes. In addition, a measurement of the sump shape of the billets were carried out by using addition melting metal of Al-30%Cu alloy into the billets during casting process. There was a good agreement between the calculated results and the measured results. Further, comparison of the calculated results during the LFEC process with that during the conventional DC casting process indicated that velocity patterns, temperature profiles and the sump depth are strongly modified by the application of a low frequency electromagnetic field during the DC casting.

Impact of Perturbation Schemes on the Ensemble Prediction in a Coupled Lorenz Model

Based on a simple coupled Lorenz model,we investigate how to assess a suitable initial perturbation scheme for ensemble forecasting in a multiscale system involving slow dynamics and fast dynamics.Four initial perturbation approaches are used in the ensemble forecasting experiments:the random perturbation(RP),the bred vector(BV),the ensemble transform Kalman filter(ETKF),and the nonlinear local Lyapunov vector(NLLV)methods.Results show that,regardless of the method used,the ensemble averages behave indistinguishably from the control forecasts during the first few time steps.Due to different error growth in different time-scale systems,the ensemble averages perform better than the control forecast after very short lead times in a fast subsystem but after a relatively long period of time in a slow subsystem.Due to the coupled dynamic processes,the addition of perturbations to fast variables or to slow variables can contribute to an improvement in the forecasting skill for fast variables and slow variables.Regarding the initial perturbation approaches,the NLLVs show higher forecasting skill than the BVs or RPs overall.The NLLVs and ETKFs had nearly equivalent prediction skill,but NLLVs performed best by a narrow margin.In particular,when adding perturbations to slow variables,the independent perturbations(NLLVs and ETKFs)perform much better in ensemble prediction.These results are simply implied in a real coupled air–sea model.For the prediction of oceanic variables,using independent perturbations(NLLVs)and adding perturbations to oceanic variables are expected to result in better performance in the ensemble prediction.

Hydrodynamic Response of A Fully Coupled TLP Hull-TTR System with Detailed Modeling of A Hydraulic Pneumatic Tensioner and Riser Joints

Tension Leg Platform(TLP)in deepwater oil and gas field development usually consists of a hull,tendons,and top tension risers(TTRs).To maintain its top tension,each TTR is connected with a tensioner system to the hull.Owing to the complicated configuration of the tensioners,the hull and TTRs form a strong coupled system.Traditionally,some simplified tensioner models are applied to analyze the TLP structures.There is a large discrepancy between their analysis results and the actual mechanism behaviors of a tensioner.It is very necessary to develop a more detailed tensioner model to consider the coupling effects between TLP and TTRs.In the present study,a fully coupled TLP hull-TTR system for hydrodynamic numerical simulation is established.A specific hydraulic pneumatic tensioner is modeled by considering 4 cylinders.The production TTR model is stacked up by specific riser joints.The simulation is also extended to analyze an array of TTRs.Different regular and irregular waves are considered.The behaviors of different cylinders are presented.The results show that it is important to consider the specific configurations of the tensioner and TTRs,which may lead to obviously different response behaviors,compared with those from a simplified model.

Mathematical modeling for coupled solid elastic-deformation and gas leak flow in multi-coal-seams

Based on the new viewpoint of solid and gas interaction mechanics, gas leakage in a double deformable coal seam can be understood. That is, under the action of geophysical fields, the methane flow in a double deformable coal seam can be essentially considered to be compressible with time dependent and mixed permeation and diffusion through a pore cleat deformable heterogeneous and anisotropy medium. Based on this new viewpoint, a coupled mathematical model for coal seam deformation and gas leakage in a double coal seam was formulated and numerical simulations for gas emission from the coal seam are presented. It is found that coupled models might be closer to reality.

Impacts of Surface Exchange Coefficients on Simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)Using a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave Model

In this study,the effects of surface exchange coefficients on simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)are investigated using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model.Several experiments are conducted using different parameterization schemes for the drag(C_(D))and enthalpy exchange(C_(K))coefficients.For the selected case,considering only the leveling-off of C_(D)at high wind speeds does not effectively improve the simulated typhoon track,intensity,or size.We found that increasing C_(K)monotonically with wind speed(Komori et al.,2018)yields stronger winds and deeper pressures by enhancing latent and sensible heat fluxes,but typhoon intensity remains underestimated.We propose a new higher C_(K)than that from Komori et al.(2018)based on the theory of Emanuel(1995).This approach produces a greater modeled typhoon intensity that is in good agreement with the best track data and effectively improves the track error for the simulation.Improved accuracy for modeled typhoon intensity is achieved with the new coefficient because C_(K)/C_(D)reaches the threshold of about 0.75 predicted by Emanuel(1995).The new proposed C_(K)also results in a reasonably accurate modeled sea surface temperature.However,typhoon size and surface wave height are overestimated.This finding implies that more numerical tests for tropical cyclones of different nature(such as strong,weak,dissipating,rapidly intensifying,or weakening tropical cyclones)should be studied,and more physical processes should be explored in future coupled models.

Prediction of Sedimentary Microfacies Distribution by Coupling Stochastic Modeling Method in Oil and Gas Energy Resource Exploitation

In view of the problem that a single modeling method cannot predict the distribution of microfacies, a new idea of coupling modeling method to comprehensively predict the distribution of sedimentary microfacies was proposed, breaking the tradition that different sedimentary microfacies used the same modeling method in the past. Because different sedimentary microfacies have different distribution characteristics and geometric shapes, it is more accurate to select different simulation methods for prediction. In this paper, the coupling modeling method was to establish the distribution of sedimentary microfacies with simple geometry through the point indicating process simulation, and then predict the microfacies with complex spatial distribution through the sequential indicator simulation method. Taking the DC block of Bohai basin as an example, a high-precision reservoir sedimentary microfacies model was established by the above coupling modeling method, and the model verification results showed that the sedimentary microfacies model had a high consistency with the underground. The coupling microfacies modeling method had higher accuracy and reliability than the traditional modeling method, which provided a new idea for the prediction of sedimentary microfacies.

A rigid-flexible coupling finite element model of coupler for analyzing train instability behavior during collision

Rail vehicles generate huge longitudinal impact loads in collisions.If unreasonable matching exists between the compressive strength of the intermediate coupler and the structural strength of the car body,the risk of car body structure damage and train derailment will increase.Herein,a four-stage rigid-flexible coupling finite element model of the coupler is established considering the coupler buckling load.The influence of the coupler buckling load on the train longitudinal-vertical-hori-zontal buckling behavior was studied,and the mechanism of the train horizontal buckling instability in train collisions was revealed.Analysis results show that an intermediate coupler should be designed to ensure that the actual buckling load is less than the compressive load when the car body structure begins to deform plastically.The actual buckling load of the coupler and the asymmetry of the structural strength of the car body in the lateral direction are two important influencing factors for the lateral buckling of a train collision.If the strength of the two sides of the car body structure in the lateral direction is asymmetrical,the deformation on the weaker side will be larger,and the end of the car body will begin to deflect under the action of the coupler force,which in turn causes the train to undergo sawtooth buckling.