Impacts of Surface Exchange Coefficients on Simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)Using a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave Model

In this study,the effects of surface exchange coefficients on simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)are investigated using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model.Several experiments are conducted using different parameterization schemes for the drag(C_(D))and enthalpy exchange(C_(K))coefficients.For the selected case,considering only the leveling-off of C_(D)at high wind speeds does not effectively improve the simulated typhoon track,intensity,or size.We found that increasing C_(K)monotonically with wind speed(Komori et al.,2018)yields stronger winds and deeper pressures by enhancing latent and sensible heat fluxes,but typhoon intensity remains underestimated.We propose a new higher C_(K)than that from Komori et al.(2018)based on the theory of Emanuel(1995).This approach produces a greater modeled typhoon intensity that is in good agreement with the best track data and effectively improves the track error for the simulation.Improved accuracy for modeled typhoon intensity is achieved with the new coefficient because C_(K)/C_(D)reaches the threshold of about 0.75 predicted by Emanuel(1995).The new proposed C_(K)also results in a reasonably accurate modeled sea surface temperature.However,typhoon size and surface wave height are overestimated.This finding implies that more numerical tests for tropical cyclones of different nature(such as strong,weak,dissipating,rapidly intensifying,or weakening tropical cyclones)should be studied,and more physical processes should be explored in future coupled models.

Primary Reasoning behind the Double ITCZ Phenomenon in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model

This paper investigates the processes behind the double ITCZ phenomenon, a common problem in Coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (CGCMs), using a CGCM—FGCM-0 (Flexible General Circulation Model, version 0). The double ITCZ mode develops rapidly during the ?rst two years of the integration and becomes a perennial phenomenon afterwards in the model. By way of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) for SST, sea surface pressure, and sea surface wind, some air-sea interactions are analyzed. These interactions prompt the anomalous signals that appear at the beginning of the coupling to develop rapidly. There are two possible reasons, proved by sensitivity experiments: (1) the overestimated east-west gradient of SST in the equatorial Paci?c in the ocean spin-up process, and (2) the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast in CCM3 (the Community Climate Model, Version Three). The overestimated east-west gradient of SST brings the anomalous equatorial easterly. The anomalous easterly, a?ected by the Coriolis force in the Southern Hemisphere, turns into an anomalous westerly in a broad area south of the equator and is enhanced by atmospheric anomalous circulation due to the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast simulated by CCM3. The anomalous westerly leads to anomalous warm advection that makes the SST warm in the southeast Paci?c. The double ITCZ phenomenon in the CGCM is a result of a series of nonlocal and nonlinear adjustment processes in the coupled system, which can be traced to the uncoupled models, oceanic component, and atmospheric component. The zonal gradient of the equatorial SST is too large in the ocean component and the amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast is too low in the atmosphere component.

A review of progress in coupled ocean-atmosphere model developments for ENSO studies in China

El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.

The Interannual Variability of Climate in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

In this paper, the interannual variability simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modelof the institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) in 40 year integrations is analyzed, and compared with that bythe corresponding IAP AGCM which uses the climatic sea surface temperature as the boundary condition in 25 yearintegrations.The mean climatic states of January and July simulated by IAP CGCM are in good agreement with that by IAPAGCM, i.e., no serious 'climate drift' occurs in the CGCM simulation. A comparison of the results from AGCM andCGCM indicates that the standard deviation of the monthly averaged sea level pressure simulated by IAP CGCM ismuch greater than that by IAP AGCM in tropical region. In addition, both Southern Oscillation (SO) and NorthAtlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be found in the CGCM simulation for January, but these two oscillations do not existin the AGCM simulation.The interannual variability of climate may be classified into two typest one is the variation of the annual mean,another is the variation of the annual amplitude. The ocean-atmosphere interaction mainly increases the first type ofvariability. By means of the rotated EOF, the most important patterns corresponding to the two types of interannualvariability are found to have different spatial and temporal characteristics.

A Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and ENSO Prediction Study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

A Simple Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

The quasi-geostrophic atmospheric and oceanic equations of momentum and thermodynamics with dissipation factors are used to create a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model describing the large-scale shallow-water motion. We discuss the ocean-atmosphere coupling effect in mid-high and low latitudes separately and analyze characteristics of which the oscillatory periods of coupled low-frequency modes (ocean mode) vary with the coupling frequency and latitudinal number. This can interpret the correlation between low-frequency oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interaction. Then from the dispersion curves of atmosphere and ocean, we reveal effect of the coupling strength on the propagation of Rossby waves. The convection mechanism between the two modes is also discussed in view of the slowly varying wave train.The results show that Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction play a stable rule in oceanic Rossby waves, the period of coupled low-frequency mode grows with the increment of the coupling frequency. The larger the latitudinal number is, the more rapidly it grows. When the coupling frequency tends to critical value, the oceanic Rossby waves become static. When the ocean-atmosphere coupling strength grows to some degree, the propagation of oceanic Rossby waves will become opposite to its original direction. One part of the oceanic Rossby waves is converted into atmospheric Rossby waves, the energy conversion coefficient is also solved out.

Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models in LASG/IAP

Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.

Potential Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM

Using the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS） version g1.11, a group of seasonal hindcasting experiments were carried out. In order to investigate the potential predictability of sea surface temperature （SST）, singular value decomposition （SVD） analyses were applied to extract dominant coupled modes between observed and predicated SST from the hindcasting experiments in this study. The fields discussed are sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Pacific basin （20~0S-20~0N, 120~0E- 80~0W）, respectively starting in four seasons from 1982 to 2005. On the basis of SVD analysis, the simulated pattern was replaced with the corresponding observed pattern to reconstruct SST anomaly fields to improve the ability of the simulation. The predictive skill, anomaly correlation coefficients （ACC）, after systematic error correction using the first five modes was regarded as potential predictability. Results showed that： 1） the statistical postprocessing approach was effective for systematic error correction; 2） model error sources mainly arose from mode 2 extracted from the SVD analysis-that is, during the transition phase of ENSO, the model encountered the spring predictability barrier; and 3） potential predictability （upper limits of predictability） could be high over most of the tropical Pacific basin, including the tropical western Pacific and an extra 10-degrees region of the mid and eastern Pacific.

THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference betweenNCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) isanalyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) withNCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows.The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart ofFSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSAthan that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990sas well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA.Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Nio 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that onthe antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Nio event, the horizontal cold and warm distributioncharacteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSAforcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing betterpredication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecastability of the coupled model.

Influence of the North American Dipole on ENSO onset as simulated by a coupled ocean-Atmosphere model

北美偶极子(NAD)是热带北大西洋西部和北美东北部的南北向海平面气压异常偶极型模态.以往的观测研究表明,NAD可以有效地影响ENSO事件的爆发.本文利用全球耦合模式FGOALS-g2,评估了NAD与ENSO的关系.结果表明,该模式能较好地重现NAD模态.进一步的分析验证了冬季NAD可以通过强迫冬末春初副热带东北太平洋上空的反气旋和暖海温的出现,在随后的冬季触发El Nino事件.此外,在同化NAD实验中,发生El Niño事件的概率增加了将近一倍.相比之下,NAO未能在副热带东北太平洋上空引起表面风和海温的异常,因而不能有效地激发次年冬季ENSO事件.

THE EFFECTS OF TIBETAN PLATEAU ON THE ANOMALOUS VARIATION OF ASIAN MONSOON IN A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM

Experimental predictions with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model(L9R15 AGCM-ZC ocean model)were performed for the 1986/87 El Nino event and the 1988/89 La Nina event with and without the Tibetan Plateau respectively(called TP FORC and NTP FORC hereinafter). Comparison shows that,to some extent,the existence of the Tibetan Plateau orography weakens or restrains(strengthens or facilitates)the formation of the anomalous circulation of Asian monsoon during El Nino(La Nina)period.Opposite results are found in the uncoupled AGCM simulation.

A GLOBAL COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL OF SHALLOW WATER WAVE AND ITS NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS

A global coupled air-sea model of shallow water wave is developed based on coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics.The coupling is realized through the air-sea interaction process that the atmosphere acts on the ocean by wind stress and the ocean acts on the atmosphere with heating proportional to sea surface temperature (SST)anomaly.The equation is harotropic primitive one.Response experiments of coupling system are also carried out SSTA in two categories of intensities.Compared with the results of AGCM simulation ex- periment in which only the dynamic change of air system is considered,it demonstrates that the air-sea interaction between the tropical ocean and the global atmosphere plays a very important role in the evolution of climate system.The results of numerical simulation show that it is encouraging.

Nonlinearly induced entanglement in dissipatively coupled optomechanical system

Nonlinearly induced steady-state photon–phonon entanglement of a dissipative coupled system is studied in the bistable regime. Quantum dynamical characteristics are analysed by solving the mean-field and fluctuation equations of the system. It is shown that dissipative coupling can induce bistable behaviour for the effective dissipation of the system.Under suitable parameters, one of the steady states significantly reduces the dissipative effect of the system. Consequently,a larger steady-state entanglement can be achieved compared to linear dynamics. Furthermore, the experimental feasibility of the parameters is analysed. Our results provide a new perspective for the implementation of steady-state optomechanical entanglement.

Effects of asymmetric coupling and boundary on the dynamic behaviors of a random nearest neighbor coupled system

This study investigates the dynamical behaviors of nearest neighbor asymmetric coupled systems in a confined space.First, the study derivative analytical stability and synchronization conditions for the asymmetrically coupled system in an unconfined space, which are then validated through numerical simulations. Simulation results show that asymmetric coupling has a significant impact on synchronization conditions. Moreover, it is observed that irrespective of whether the system is confined, an increase in coupling asymmetry leads to a hastened synchronization pace. Additionally, the study examines the effects of boundaries on the system's collective behaviors via numerical experiments. The presence of boundaries ensures the system's stability and synchronization, and reducing these boundaries can expedite the synchronization process and amplify its effects. Finally, the study reveals that the system's output amplitude exhibits stochastic resonance as the confined boundary size increases.

A Coupled Thermomechanical Crack Propagation Behavior of Brittle Materials by Peridynamic Differential Operator

This study proposes a comprehensive,coupled thermomechanical model that replaces local spatial derivatives in classical differential thermomechanical equations with nonlocal integral forms derived from the peridynamic differential operator(PDDO),eliminating the need for calibration procedures.The model employs a multi-rate explicit time integration scheme to handle varying time scales in multi-physics systems.Through simulations conducted on granite and ceramic materials,this model demonstrates its effectiveness.It successfully simulates thermal damage behavior in granite arising from incompatible mineral expansion and accurately calculates thermal crack propagation in ceramic slabs during quenching.To account for material heterogeneity,the model utilizes the Shuffle algorithm andWeibull distribution,yielding results that align with numerical simulations and experimental observations.This coupled thermomechanical model shows great promise for analyzing intricate thermomechanical phenomena in brittle materials.

Coexisting fast–slow dendritic traveling waves in a 3D-array electric field coupled neuronal network

Coexistence of fast and slow traveling waves without synaptic transmission has been found in hhhippocampal tissues,which is closely related to both normal brain activity and abnormal neural activity such as epileptic discharge. However, the propagation mechanism behind this coexistence phenomenon remains unclear. In this paper, a three-dimensional electric field coupled hippocampal neural network is established to investigate generation of coexisting spontaneous fast and slow traveling waves. This model captures two types of dendritic traveling waves propagating in both transverse and longitude directions: the N-methyl-D-aspartate(NMDA)-dependent wave with a speed of about 0.1 m/s and the Ca-dependent wave with a speed of about 0.009 m/s. These traveling waves are synaptic-independent and could be conducted only by the electric fields generated by neighboring neurons, which are basically consistent with the in vitro data measured experiments. It is also found that the slow Ca wave could trigger generation of fast NMDA waves in the propagation path of slow waves whereas fast NMDA waves cannot affect the propagation of slow Ca waves. These results suggest that dendritic Ca waves could acted as the source of the coexistence fast and slow waves. Furthermore, we also confirm the impact of cellular spacing heterogeneity on the onset of coexisting fast and slow waves. The local region with decreasing distances among neighbor neurons is more liable to promote the onset of spontaneous slow waves which, as sources, excite propagation of fast waves. These modeling studies provide possible biophysical mechanisms underlying the neural dynamics of spontaneous traveling waves in brain tissues.

A semi-analytical model for coupled flow in stress-sensitive multi-scale shale reservoirs with fractal characteristics

A large number of nanopores and complex fracture structures in shale reservoirs results in multi-scale flow of oil. With the development of shale oil reservoirs, the permeability of multi-scale media undergoes changes due to stress sensitivity, which plays a crucial role in controlling pressure propagation and oil flow. This paper proposes a multi-scale coupled flow mathematical model of matrix nanopores, induced fractures, and hydraulic fractures. In this model, the micro-scale effects of shale oil flow in fractal nanopores, fractal induced fracture network, and stress sensitivity of multi-scale media are considered. We solved the model iteratively using Pedrosa transform, semi-analytic Segmented Bessel function, Laplace transform. The results of this model exhibit good agreement with the numerical solution and field production data, confirming the high accuracy of the model. As well, the influence of stress sensitivity on permeability, pressure and production is analyzed. It is shown that the permeability and production decrease significantly when induced fractures are weakly supported. Closed induced fractures can inhibit interporosity flow in the stimulated reservoir volume (SRV). It has been shown in sensitivity analysis that hydraulic fractures are beneficial to early production, and induced fractures in SRV are beneficial to middle production. The model can characterize multi-scale flow characteristics of shale oil, providing theoretical guidance for rapid productivity evaluation.

Contrasts of bimodal tropical instability waves(TIWs)-induced wind stress perturbations in the Pacific Ocean among observations,ocean models,and coupled climate models

The coupling between wind stress perturbations and sea surface temperature(SST)perturbations induced by tropical instability waves(TIWs)in the Pacific Ocean has been revealed previously and proven crucial to both the atmosphere and ocean.However,an overlooked fact by previous studies is that the loosely defined“TIWs”actually consist of two modes,including the Yanai wave-based TIW on the equator(hereafter eTIW)and the Rossby wave-based TIW off the equator(hereafter vTIW).Hence,the individual feedbacks of the wind stress to the bimodal TIWs remain unexplored.In this study,individual coupling relationships are established for both eTIW and v TIW,including the relationship between the TIW-induced SST perturbations and two components of wind stress perturbations,and the relationship between the TIW-induced wind stress perturbation divergence(curl)and the downwind(crosswind)TIW-induced SST gradients.Results show that,due to different distributions of eTIW and vTIW,the coupling strength induced by the eTIW is stronger on the equator,and that by the vTIW is stronger off the equator.The results of any of eTIW and vTIW are higher than those of the loosely defined TIWs.We further investigated how well the coupling relationships remained in several widely recognized oceanic general circulation models and fully coupled climate models.However,the coupling relationships cannot be well represented in most numerical models.Finally,we confirmed that higher resolution usually corresponds to more accurate simulation.Therefore,the coupling models established in this study are complementary to previous research and can be used to refine the oceanic and coupled climate models.

Uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion based on coupled mechanism—motor dynamic model for ammunition delivery system

In this paper,a dynamic modeling method of motor driven electromechanical system is presented,and the uncertainty quantification of mechanism motion is investigated based on this method.The main contribution is to propose a novel mechanism-motor coupling dynamic modeling method,in which the relationship between mechanism motion and motor rotation is established according to the geometric coordination of the system.The advantages of this include establishing intuitive coupling between the mechanism and motor,facilitating the discussion for the influence of both mechanical and electrical parameters on the mechanism,and enabling dynamic simulation with controller to take the randomness of the electric load into account.Dynamic simulation considering feedback control of ammunition delivery system is carried out,and the feasibility of the model is verified experimentally.Based on probability density evolution theory,we comprehensively discuss the effects of system parameters on mechanism motion from the perspective of uncertainty quantization.Our work can not only provide guidance for engineering design of ammunition delivery mechanism,but also provide theoretical support for modeling and uncertainty quantification research of mechatronics system.

CAS-ESM2.0 Successfully Reproduces Historical Atmospheric CO_(2) in a Coupled Carbon−Climate Simulation

The atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))concentration has been increasing rapidly since the Industrial Revolution,which has led to unequivocal global warming and crucial environmental change.It is extremely important to investigate the interactions among atmospheric CO_(2),the physical climate system,and the carbon cycle of the underlying surface for a better understanding of the Earth system.Earth system models are widely used to investigate these interactions via coupled carbon-climate simulations.The Chinese Academy of Sciences Earth System Model version 2(CAS-ESM2.0)has successfully fixed a two-way coupling of atmospheric CO_(2)with the climate and carbon cycle on land and in the ocean.Using CAS-ESM2.0,we conducted a coupled carbon-climate simulation by following the CMIP6 proposal of a historical emissions-driven experiment.This paper examines the modeled CO_(2)by comparison with observed CO_(2)at the sites of Mauna Loa and Barrow,and the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite(GOSAT)CO_(2)product.The results showed that CAS-ESM2.0 agrees very well with observations in reproducing the increasing trend of annual CO_(2)during the period 1850-2014,and in capturing the seasonal cycle of CO_(2)at the two baseline sites,as well as over northern high latitudes.These agreements illustrate a good ability of CAS-ESM2.0 in simulating carbon-climate interactions,even though uncertainties remain in the processes involved.This paper reports an important stage of the development of CAS-ESM with the coupling of carbon and climate,which will provide significant scientific support for climate research and China’s goal of carbon neutrality.