A new method for evaluating the firing precision of multiple launch rocket system based on Bayesian theory

How to effectively evaluate the firing precision of weapon equipment at low cost is one of the core contents of improving the test level of weapon system.A new method to evaluate the firing precision of the MLRS considering the credibility of simulation system based on Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper.First of all,a comprehensive index system for the credibility of the simulation system of the firing precision of the MLRS is constructed combined with the group analytic hierarchy process.A modified method for determining the comprehensive weight of the index is established to improve the rationality of the index weight coefficients.The Bayesian posterior estimation formula of firing precision considering prior information is derived in the form of mixed prior distribution,and the rationality of prior information used in estimation model is discussed quantitatively.With the simulation tests,the different evaluation methods are compared to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.Finally,the experimental results show that the effectiveness of estimation method for firing precision is improved by more than 25%.

Exploration of the Impact Mechanism of Government Credibility Based on Variable Screening Method

Government credibility is an important asset of contemporary national governance, an important criterion for evaluating government legitimacy, and a key factor in measuring the effectiveness of government governance. In recent years, researchers’ research on government credibility has mostly focused on exploring theories and mechanisms, with little empirical research on this topic. This article intends to apply variable selection models in the field of social statistics to the issue of government credibility, in order to achieve empirical research on government credibility and explore its core influencing factors from a statistical perspective. Specifically, this article intends to use four regression-analysis-based methods and three random-forest-based methods to study the influencing factors of government credibility in various provinces in China, and compare the performance of these seven variable selection methods in different dimensions. The research results show that there are certain differences in simplicity, accuracy, and variable importance ranking among different variable selection methods, which present different importance in the study of government credibility issues. This study provides a methodological reference for variable selection models in the field of social science research, and also offers a multidimensional comparative perspective for analyzing the influencing factors of government credibility.

Study of the Authenticity and Credibility of QQ Chat Records

Digital evidence investigation in QQ software is the current research focus.In order to identify the authenticity and credibility of QQ chat records,the method based on attacking QQ chat records is proposed.Firstly,an evaluation model on checking the authenticity of QQ chat records is proposed.The cases on kinds of changing QQ chat records are discussed.The challenge in identifying the authenticity of QQ chat records is raised.Secondly,case study on attacking QQ chat records is proposed to check the relationship between the authenticity of QQ chat records and the difficulty of changing them.A couple of experiments on changing QQ chat records are finished to find how difficult changing records is and whether there are clues left on changing them or not.Finally,a kind of QQ chat forensic process is presented,which can help for digital evidence investigation in the authenticity and credibility of QQ chat records.The practices in QQ forensic cases show that it works well.

Analysis of the Government Credibility: From the Perspective of Perception and Expectation

Government credibility is a very important issue in today’s society.It seems to have a great relationship with the administrative efficiency of the government.At present,the credibility of the government in the world has generally declined.In this article,I first described the factors affecting the government’s credibility and took the gap between people’s expectations and perception of the government as the main reason for the decline of the government’s credibility.Secondly,I analyze the relationship between credibility and political legitimacy and believe that credibility is the main source of political legitimacy.Finally,based on the actions of governments to improve political legitimacy through various means,I explain their impact on government credibility from the perspectives of expectation and perception.I find that most of these actions will get the opposite of what one wants,increasing the risk of credibility collapse.

A New Method with High Confidence for Validation of Computer Simulation Models of Flight Systems

Computer simulation models may by used to gain further information about missile performance variability. Model validation is an important aspect of the test program for a missile system. Validation provides a basis for confidence in the model's results and is a necessary step if the model is to be used to draw inference about the behavior of the real missile. This paper is a review of methods useful for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems and provides a new method with high degree of confidence for validation of computer simulation models of missile systems. Some examples of the use of the new method in validating computer simulation models are given.

The Credibility Models under LINEX Loss Functions

LINEX(linear and exponential) loss function is a useful asymmetric loss function. The purpose of using a LINEX loss function in credibility models is to solve the problem of very high premium by suing a symmetric quadratic loss function in most of classical credibility models. The Bayes premium and the credibility premium are derived under LINEX loss function. The consistency of Bayes premium and credibility premium were also checked. Finally, the simulation was introduced to show the differences between the credibility estimator we derived and the classical one.

Optimal Credibility Estimation of Random Parameters in Hierarchical Random Effect Linear Model

In the hierarchical random effect linear model, the Bayes estimator of random parameter are not only dependent on specific prior distribution but also it is difficult to calculate in most cases. This paper derives the distributed-free optimal linear estimator of random parameters in the model by means of the credibility theory method. The estimators the authors derive can be applied in more extensive practical scenarios since they are only dependent on the first two moments of prior parameter rather than on specific prior distribution. Finally, the results are compared with some classical models and a numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of the estimators.

A new measure for evaluating spatially related properties of traffic information credibility

With the wide applications of sensor network technology in traffic information acquisition systems,a new measure will be quite necessary to evaluate spatially related properties of traffic information credibility.The heterogeneity of spatial distribution of information credibility from sensor networks is analyzed and a new measure,information credibility function(ICF),is proposed to describe this heterogeneity.Three possible functional forms of sensor ICF and their corresponding expressions are presented.Then,two feasible operations of spatial superposition of sensor ICFs are discussed.Finally,a numerical example is introduced to show the calibration method of sensor ICF and obtain the spatially related properties of expressway in Beijing.The results show that the sensor ICF of expressway in Beijing possesses a negative exponent property.The traffic information is more abundant at or near the locations of sensor,while with the distance away from the sensor increasing,the traffic information credibility will be declined by an exponential trend.The new measure provides theoretical bases for the optimal locations of traffic sensor networks and the mechanism research of spatial distribution of traffic information credibility.

Quantitative credibility evaluation of Global Energy Interconnection data

The development of Global Energy Interconnection(GEI)is essential for supporting a wide range of basic data resources.The Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization has established a comprehensive data center covering six major systems.However,methods for accurately describing and scientifically evaluating the credibility of the massive amount of GEI data remain underdeveloped.To address this lack of such methods,a GEI data credibility quantitative evaluation model is proposed here.An evaluation indicator system is established to evaluate data credibility from multiple perspectives and ensure the comprehensiveness and impartiality of evaluation results.The Cloud Model abandons the hard division of comments to ensure objectivity and accuracy in evaluation results.To evaluate the suitability of the proposed method,a case analysis is conducted,wherein the proposed method demonstrates sufficient validity and feasibility.

Fuzzy Global Stability Analysis of the Dynamics of Malaria with Fuzzy Transmission and Recovery Rates

In this paper, fuzzy techniques have been used to track the problem of malaria transmission dynamics. The fuzzy equilibrium of the proposed model was discussed for different amounts of parasites in the body. We proved that when the amounts of parasites are less than the minimum amounts required for disease transmission (), we reach the model disease-free equilibrium. Using Choquet integral, the fuzzy basic reproduction number through the expected value of fuzzy variable was introduced for the fuzzy Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, susceptible-Susceptible, Exposed and Infected (SEIRS-SEI) malaria model. The fuzzy global stabilities were introduced and discussed. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if or if the basic reproduction number is less than one (). When and , there exists a co-existing endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of feasible set . Finally, the numerical simulation has been done for showing the effectiveness of our analytical results.

Classifying Misinformation of User Credibility in Social Media Using Supervised Learning

The growth of the internet and technology has had a significant effect on social interactions.False information has become an important research topic due to the massive amount of misinformed content on social networks.It is very easy for any user to spread misinformation through the media.Therefore,misinformation is a problem for professionals,organizers,and societies.Hence,it is essential to observe the credibility and validity of the News articles being shared on social media.The core challenge is to distinguish the difference between accurate and false information.Recent studies focus on News article content,such as News titles and descriptions,which has limited their achievements.However,there are two ordinarily agreed-upon features of misinformation:first,the title and text of an article,and second,the user engagement.In the case of the News context,we extracted different user engagements with articles,for example,tweets,i.e.,read-only,user retweets,likes,and shares.We calculate user credibility and combine it with article content with the user’s context.After combining both features,we used three Natural language processing(NLP)feature extraction techniques,i.e.,Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency(TF-IDF),Count-Vectorizer(CV),and Hashing-Vectorizer(HV).Then,we applied different machine learning classifiers to classify misinformation as real or fake.Therefore,we used a Support Vector Machine(SVM),Naive Byes(NB),Random Forest(RF),Decision Tree(DT),Gradient Boosting(GB),and K-Nearest Neighbors(KNN).The proposed method has been tested on a real-world dataset,i.e.,“fakenewsnet”.We refine the fakenewsnet dataset repository according to our required features.The dataset contains 23000+articles with millions of user engagements.The highest accuracy score is 93.4%.The proposed model achieves its highest accuracy using count vector features and a random forest classifier.Our discoveries confirmed that the proposed classifier would effectively classify misinformation in social networks.

Numerical Characteristics of Fuzzy Numbers Based on Credibility Measure

The numerical characteristics of fuzzy numbers include the optimistic value, pessimistic value, expected value, and the variance. We mainly provide the calculation formulae of several numerical characteristics of fuzzy numbers based on credibility measure. Especially, the variance of symmetric fuzzy numbers is formulated, and a super bound for the variance of fuzzy numbers is presented. Meanwhile, some conclusions relative to credibility measure, optimistic and pessimistic values are also given.

A COMPARISON BETWEEN TWO KINDS OF BMS BASED ON DIFFERENT CREDIBILITY

The paper develops a design of optimal Bonus-Malus System （BMS） based on exact equitable credibility,in which the relative error function is taken as loss function. In BMS,both the frequency and the severity components are considered. This design is compared with traditional BMS derived from classical squared-error loss function.

Construction of Quality Security and Credibility Mechanism for Chinese Food Enterprises

Credibility deficiency of food enterprises is a major threat for food security in China. Analysis of causes for the credibility deficiency of Chinese food enterprises,and construction of an effective quality security and credibility mechanism are not only the key to constructing a long-term supervision mechanism for food security,but also the important guarantee for coordinating social and economic development.

The Credibility Estimators under MLINEX Loss Function

In this paper, MLINEX loss function was considered to solve the problem of high premium in credibility models. The Bayes premium and credibility premium were obtained under MLINEX loss function by using a symmetric quadratic loss function. A credibility model with multiple contracts was established and the corresponding credibility estimator was derived under MLINEX loss function. For this model the estimations of the structure parameters and a numerical example were also given.

A Critical Review on the Determinants of a Free, Fair and Credible Election

There is no specific and standard definition of what free, fair and credible democratic elections mean under international law. The international law by implications only tries to lay down a guide and qualities of what a free and fair democratic election should and what it should not be. Both emerging and established democracies present frequent deviations from the ideals of a free, fair and credible election. Confidence in the electoral process has therefore become a key concern for political scientists and electoral administrators prompting this critical review. This article is mainly theoretical in perspective using the primary and secondary data in its context. Findings indicate allegations of administrative restrictions being selectively applied to losers coupled with election rigging by winners. This confirms that the quest for measuring and determining the credibility of an electoral outcome or ＂freeness and fairness＂ of an electoral process needs a collaborative approach. A model is used to explain the complexity of defining free and fair elections while emphasis is placed on aligning domestic law to international laws.

The Experience of Reconstructing Historic Buildings in Practice： Selected Cases From the Czech Republic

A negative attitude to the physical reconstruction of damaged or destroyed historic structures back to their original formshas been deeply rooted in the Czech heritage conservation philosophy since the beginning of the twentieth century. Underthe influence of practices abroad, Czech conservators have, however, in some cases, accepted reconstruction. Thispaper seeks to illustrate the process of continuously oscillating between the refusal and the acceptance of reconstruction inthe Czech Republic, with selected cases taken from heritage conservation practice--namely, the facades on the north side ofthe main square in the historic town of Nove Mesto nad Metuji in east Bohemia （1952-1954）, the western facade of theEmmaus Abbey Church in Prague （1964-1966）, Stone Bell House in Prague （1974-1988）, and the spires and gables of theLesser Town town hall in Prague （2007-2008）. They show how much the quality and the regard to historical faithfulness ofthe execution matters in reconstruction and how useful it is in this process to follow the principles of the Charter of Venice,an international document on heritage conservation issued in 1964, which, despite some recent objections, is still far fromobsolete.

Discussions about the differences and credibility on grape wine scoring

The scores of grape wine given by wine critics have differences, therefore, for which its credibility differs. Firstly, our paper analysis differences of overall and individual for the two groups of raters. The analysis method is： first check the score whether meets the normal distribution or not by Chi-square and then test whether the mean of the two group＇s ratings is equal or not, through t-test, to illustrate the differences of the two groups＇ ratings. Secondly this paper respectively characterizes the credibility of each group＇s rating with the variance and gray correlation. Both the results are highly consistent on the credibility, so they can support each other. This score comparison method can be further extended to a similar scoring system.

The Violation of Poetics by Waiting for Godot—From the Perspective of the Authenticity of Poetry

Poetics by Aristotle sets the dogmas for literature,while Waiting for Godot,the representative of the Theater of the Ab⁃surd,violates the former’s principles to achieve certain effects.The thesis will analyze the violation from the angle of Solidity or Authenticity of art and poetry,which are the likelinessandnecessity,and credibility.By digressing from the traditional rules,Wait⁃ing for Godot helps to create absurdity reflecting the inner loss of people after the war and to form a sense of alienation from reality.

A Privacy Preserving Federated Learning System for IoT Devices Using Blockchain and Optimization

In this study, a blockchain based federated learning system using an enhanced weighted mean vector optimization algorithm, known as EINFO, is proposed. The proposed EINFO addresses the limitations of federated averaging during global update and model training, where data is unevenly distributed among devices and there are variations in the number of data samples. Using a well-defined structure and updating the vector positions by local searching, vector combining, and updating rules, the EINFO algorithm maximizes the shared model parameters. In order to increase the exploration and exploitation capabilities, the model convergence rate is improved and new vectors are generated through the use of a weighted mean vector based on the inverse square law. To choose validators, miners, and to propagate new blocks, a delegated proof of stake based on the reliability of blockchain nodes is suggested. Federated learning is included into the blockchain to protect nodes from both external and internal threats. To determine how well the suggested system performs in relation to current models in the literature, extensive simulations are run. The simulation results show that the proposed system outperforms existing schemes in terms of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity.