Pricing Catastrophe Options with Credit Risk in a Regime-Switching Model

In this paper,we consider the price of catastrophe options with credit risk in a regime-switching model.We assume that the macroeconomic states are described by a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite state space.By using the measure change technique,we derive the price expressions of catastrophe put options.Moreover,we conduct some numerical analysis to demonstrate how the parameters of the model affect the price of the catastrophe put option.

Practice of Infection Prevention and Control Strategies in Risk Departments during the COVID-19 Epidemic

Objective: To explore the practice and application of infection prevention and control strategies in risk departments during the COVID-19 epidemic, and to formulate the infection prevention and control measures to provide advice and guidance in risk departments. Methods: According to the latest plan of diagnosis and treatment, prevention and control issued by the National Health Commission, expert advice and consensus, combined with the actual situation in our hospital, a series of infection prevention and control measures of COVID-19 in risk department was formulated. Results: During the epidemic period, the prevention and control measures of nine risk departments including emergency operation, anesthesiology, endoscopy center, blood purification center, otolaryngology, stomatology, medical imaging department, medical cosmetology department and pulmonary function room were established from six aspects, including pre-examination and screening, medical technology control, personnel management, personal protection, environmental disinfection, medical waste disposal, etc. Conclusion: During the epidemic period, the infection prevention and control strategy of risk departments is one of the key links to control the spread of the epidemic, and risk departments must pay attention to and strictly implement various infection prevention and control measures.

Internal Control Management and Risk Prevention Measures of State-Owned Enterprises

As an important pillar of national economic development,state-owned enterprises,their operational efficiency,and risk management ability are directly related to the stability and security of the national economy.As an important part of enterprise management,internal control management plays an irreplaceable role.Especially in the current domestic and international economic situation is complex and changeable,market competition is increasingly fierce environment,to strengthen the internal control management of state-owned enterprises and risk prevention measures is particularly important.This paper starts with the importance of internal control management and risk prevention for state-owned enterprises,and analyzes the problems and strategies in the internal control management and risk prevention of state-owned enterprises,in order to build a more comprehensive and efficient risk management system for state-owned enterprises to adapt to the ever-changing market environment and realize sustainable development.

Risk Assessment and Control in Medical Investment,Merger,and Acquisition

The risk assessment and control of medical investment,merger,and acquisition are crucial topics within the medical industry,encompassing various aspects of investment,merger,and acquisition within this sector.The process primarily targets the unique nature and associated risks of the medical industry,focusing on effective risk management and control strategies to facilitate the smooth progression of investment,merger,and acquisition activities.

MSEs Credit Risk Assessment Model Based on Federated Learning and Feature Selection

Federated learning has been used extensively in business inno-vation scenarios in various industries.This research adopts the federated learning approach for the first time to address the issue of bank-enterprise information asymmetry in the credit assessment scenario.First,this research designs a credit risk assessment model based on federated learning and feature selection for micro and small enterprises(MSEs)using multi-dimensional enterprise data and multi-perspective enterprise information.The proposed model includes four main processes:namely encrypted entity alignment,hybrid feature selection,secure multi-party computation,and global model updating.Secondly,a two-step feature selection algorithm based on wrapper and filter is designed to construct the optimal feature set in multi-source heterogeneous data,which can provide excellent accuracy and interpretability.In addition,a local update screening strategy is proposed to select trustworthy model parameters for aggregation each time to ensure the quality of the global model.The results of the study show that the model error rate is reduced by 6.22%and the recall rate is improved by 11.03%compared to the algorithms commonly used in credit risk research,significantly improving the ability to identify defaulters.Finally,the business operations of commercial banks are used to confirm the potential of the proposed model for real-world implementation.

Prioritizing real estate enterprises based on credit risk assessment:an integrated multi‑criteria group decision support framework

Credit risk assessment involves conducting a fair review and evaluation of an assessed subject’s solvency and creditworthiness.In the context of real estate enterprises,credit risk assessment provides a basis for banks and other financial institutions to choose suitable investment objects.Additionally,it encourages real estate enterprises to abide by market norms and provide reliable information for the standardized management of the real estate industry.However,Chinese real estate companies are hesitant to disclose their actual operating data due to privacy concerns,making subjective evalu-ation approaches inevitable,occupying important roles in accomplishing Chinese real estate enterprise credit risk assessment tasks.To improve the normative and reliability of credit risk assessment for Chinese real estate enterprises,this study proposes an integrated multi-criteria group decision-making approach.First,a credit risk assessment index for Chinese real estate enterprises is established.Then,the proposed framework combines proportional hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation II methods.This approach is suitable for processing large amounts of data with high uncertainty,which is often the case in credit risk assessment tasks of Chinese real estate enterprises involving massive subjec-tive evaluation information.Finally,the proposed model is validated through a case study accompanied by sensitivity and comparative analyses to verify its rationality and feasibility.This study contributes to the research on credit assessment for Chinese real estate enterprises and provides a revised paradigm for real estate enterprise credit risk assessment.

A machine learning-based study of multifactor susceptibility and risk control of induced seismicity in unconventional reservoirs

A comprehensive dataset from 594 fracturing wells throughout the Duvernay Formation near Fox Creek, Alberta, is collected to quantify the influences of geological, geomechanical, and operational features on the distribution and magnitude of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity. An integrated machine learning-based investigation is conducted to systematically evaluate multiple factors that contribute to induced seismicity. Feature importance indicates that a distance to fault, a distance to basement, minimum principal stress, cumulative fluid injection, initial formation pressure, and the number of fracturing stages are among significant model predictors. Our seismicity prediction map matches the observed spatial seismicity, and the prediction model successfully guides the fracturing job size of a new well to reduce seismicity risks. This study can apply to mitigating potential seismicity risks in other seismicity-frequent regions.

Construction Technology and Safety Risk Control Measures of Deep Foundation Pit Excavation

Deep foundation pit excavation is a basic and key step involved in modern building construction.In order to ensure the construction quality and safety of deep foundation pits,this paper takes a project as an example to analyze deep foundation pit excavation technology,including the nature of this construction project,the main technical measures in the construction of deep foundation pit,and the analysis of the safety risk prevention and control measures.The purpose of this analysis is to provide scientific reference for the construction quality and safety of deep foundation pits.

Assessment of Diabetes Control Level and Associated Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of mortality in type 2 diabetics patients. Our work aimed to assess the level of control of type 2 diabetes and associated cardiovascular risk factors. Patients and study method: This was an observational cross-sectional study of type 2 diabetics patients. The parameters studied were: sociodemographic data, lifestyle, anthropometric data, levels of control of diabetes by the level of HbA1C, blood pressure measured at the office and cholesterol. Results: 326 type 2 diabetics patients were collected. The sex-ratio was 0.35. The average age of the patients was 58 ± 11 years. A physical inactivity remained present in 79 patients (24.23%), 2 patients (0.61%) continued to smoke. The prevalence of obesity was 21.16% (n = 69) or 25% of women and 10.4% of men (p = 0.01). Abdominal obesity was observed in 151 patients (46.31%), 139 of whom were female and 12 male (p = 0.001). Diabetes was sufficiently controlled in 65.34% of patients (n = 213) while cholesterolemia and hypertension were controlled in 33.44% and 8.33% of patients respectively. Conclusion: Type 2 diabetes was frequently associated with other cardiovascular risk factors. Control of diabetes and these factors was insufficient. Therapeutic education of type 2 diabetics patients needed to be improved.

Enterprise Internal Control Based on Risk Management with Moutai Group as an Example

Focusing on the two themes of"internal control"and"risk management",this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the current situation of risk management and internal control of Moutai Group.It analyzes the current situation of risk management and internal control of Moutai Group.It is found that the risk management of Moutai Group is not perfect,the information exchange is not smooth,and the internal control assessment is not perfect.Finally,it puts forward some corresponding countermeasures,including establishing an effective information communication mechanism,perfecting the risk assessment system,and strengthening the construction of the professional talent team.

Research on Influencing Factors and Countermeasures of Risk Control of State-Owned Enterprises under the Background of Big Data

This study explores the risk control and response strategies of state-owned enterprises in the context of big data.Global economic uncertainty poses new challenges to state-owned enterprises,necessitating innovative risk management approaches.This article proposes response strategies from four key aspects:establishing a proactive risk management culture,building a foundation in technology and data,conducting big data-driven risk analysis,and implementing predictive analysis and real-time monitoring.State-owned enterprises can foster a proactive risk management culture by cultivating employee risk awareness,demonstrating leadership,and establishing transparency and open communication.Additionally,data integration and analysis,leveraging the latest technology,are crucial factors that can help companies better identify risks and opportunities.

Understanding Credit Risk in Internet Consumer Finance:An Empirical Analysis with a Focus on the Young Generation

In recent years,internet finance has garnered increasing attention from the public.Online lending,emerging within the framework of Internet finance as a pivotal component,has witnessed substantial growth.While online credit,within the realm of Internet finance,presents numerous advantages over traditional lending,it concurrently exposes a plethora of credit risk issues.This study aims to facilitate the effective utilization of online credit tools by the young generation within the context of Internet finance.Additionally,it seeks to ensure the overall stability of the Internet finance environment and mitigate risks for the youth.Given the significance of understanding credit risk management for college students in the age of internet finance,this paper adopts the logistic model to evaluate credit risk in internet consumer finance and provides pertinent recommendations from the perspective of the young generation.

Clinical Analysis of Diabetic Nephropathy Risk Factors and Correlation with Blood Pressure Control

Objective:To explore the risk factors of diabetic nephropathy and its correlation with blood pressure control.Methods:A retrospective analysis of 80 patients with diabetic nephropathy(diabetic nephropathy group)and another 80 patients with diabetes(diabetic group)who were admitted to the Department of Nephrology and Endocrinology at our hospital from October 2021 to October 2022 was conducted.The general data of the two groups were compared,the influencing factors associated with the two groups were analyzed unilaterally,and unconditional dichotomous logistic regression was performed to analyze the influencing factors in patients with diabetic nephropathy.Results:There were no significant differences in high-density lipoprotein,systolic blood pressure,diastolic blood pressure,and creatinine between the two groups(P>0.05);however,compared with the diabetic group,the DN group had significantly elevated glycated hemoglobin,low-density lipoprotein,24-h urine protein,insulin resistance,and diabetes duration≥10 years(P<0.05).Conclusion:The clinical research on the correlation between the incidence of hypertension and the control of blood pressure in patients with diabetic nephropathy should be strengthened in order to formulate reasonable and feasible treatment plans.

Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model

Purpose-In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights,subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process,this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control(CTC)system risk assessment method.Design/methodologylapproach-First,system-theoretic process analysis(STPA)is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis.Then,to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation,the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(FDEMATEL)and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight,relative weight and objective weight of each index.These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index.To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process,the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character(NC)of the cloud model for each index.The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system.This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment.The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud.Finally,this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.Findings-The cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well.The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.Originality/value-This study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems,which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment,achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems.It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC system.

Malnutrition Assessed Using the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index Is Associated with Preoperative Incidence of Deep Vein Thrombosis in Japanese Patients Undergoing Total Knee Arthroplasty

Purpose: Few studies have evaluated the association between malnutrition and the risk of preoperative deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in patients undergoing primary total joint arthroplasty. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of preoperative DVT in Japanese patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and the importance of malnutrition in the risk of preoperative DVT. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 394 patients admitted for primary TKA at our institution between January 2019 and December 2023. All patients scheduled for TKA at our institution had serum D-dimer levels measured preoperatively. Lower-limb ultrasonography was examined to confirm the presence of DVT in patients with D-dimer levels ≥ 1.0 µg/mL or who were considered to be at high risk of DVT by the treating physician. Based on the results of lower-limb ultrasonography, all patients were divided into the non-DVT and DVT groups. The incidence of and risk factors for preoperative DVT were investigated, as well as the correlation of DVT with the patient’s nutritional parameters. We used two representative tools for nutritional assessment: the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) and Controlling Nutritional Status Score. Results: The mean age was 77.8 ± 6.9 years. Preoperative DVT was diagnosed in 57 of the 394 (14.5%) patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that advanced age and malnutrition status, assessed using the GNRI, were independent risk factors for preoperative DVT. Conclusion: A high incidence of preoperative DVT was observed in patients who underwent TKA. Malnutrition status, as assessed using the GNRI, increased the risk of preoperative DVT. Our findings suggest that clinicians should consider these factors when tailoring preventive strategies to mitigate DVT risk in patients undergoing TKA.

基于Credit Risk+模型的互联网金融信用风险估计

文章基于Credit Risk+模型,使用互联网信贷平台四个行业的贷款数据,在不同置信水平下,对互联网金融的信用风险水平进行比较分析。结果表明,行业风险因子间协方差相等时,复合伽玛Credit Risk+模型和多元系统风险Credit Risk+模型计算结果几乎一致,与CSFB Credit Risk+模型和两阶段Credit Risk+模型相比能更好地反映贷款组合的非预期损失。行业风险因子间协方差不等时,多元系统风险Credit Risk+模型能克服其他Credit Risk+模型的缺陷,综合考量系统风险和行业风险的影响,能更好地估计贷款组合的信用风险水平。

基于损失程度变化的CreditRisk^+的鞍点逼近

传统的CreditRisk+模型在度量信用风险过程,假定违约损失是给定不变的,而近年的实证研究表明在实际的金融市场中违约损失是变化的。针对传统模型这一假设的不合理性,本文对模型作了发展。新模型充分考虑了违约时损失程度的变化,用β分布来刻画这种变化,并利用鞍点逼近给出了信用风险的度量,改进了传统递推算法的不足。最后进行数值模拟以说明方法的有效性。

农地经营权抵押贷款信用风险影响因素及其衡量研究——基于CreditRisk+模型的估计

基于1 173个贷款样本数据,运用Logistic回归分析农地经营权抵押贷款信用风险影响因素并预测违约概率,依据CreditRisk+模型,对农地经营权抵押贷款信用风险衡量进行研究,并进行了压力测试。研究表明,农地经营权抵押贷款信用风险主要受到抵押土地因素、保险与政策因素的影响;影响因素的风险程度具有次序性;贷款期限和农业生产周期不匹配是农地经营权抵押贷款面临的突出矛盾;土地经营权来源不同的贷款风险程度存在明显差异;农地经营权抵押贷款预期损失和非预期损失占VaR比例结构合理,极端情景出现时预期损失会有明显波动。提出应瞄准贷款对象、精确贷款条款和强化风险处置,促进农地经营权抵押贷款顺利开展。

基于CreditRisk+模型的零售贷款经济资本计量方法

针对零售贷款的信用风险特征,在CreditRisk+框架下,采用非线性时变比例模型分类测算零售贷款违约概率,并引入FFT-Panjer算法简化零售贷款组合的损失分布计算,提出了零售贷款信用风险的经济资本计量方法。同时通过算例分析论证了该方法在我国商业银行运用的科学性和可行性。

CreditRisk^+模型在商业银行信贷风险管理中的应用

使用CreditRisk^+(信贷风险附加)模型对选自某商业银行的贷款的资产组合进行风险测度。得到了资产组合中各债务人的预期违约损失和风险贡献,资产组合的预期违约损失分布,以及各置信度损失水平下的临界值等信息,从而完成了资产组合风险的测量。根据测量结果,对资产组合进行了预期违约损失、风险贡献、经济资本和信用准备金等分析,在此基础上提出目前我国商业银行信贷风险管理的现实选择是CreditRisk^+这种违约模式的模型。